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United States: Eliminating Nuclear Delivery Platforms Could Save Billions By David Ruppe The savings could be realized if the administration chose to remove from service most delivery platforms — missiles and submarines — from which many of the nuclear warheads would be downloaded, according to a recent analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Alternatively, the Pentagon might spend about $105 million to retain those delivery platforms for possible reintroduction into the strategic force, said the report, sent to Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden (D-Del.) on Sept. 24. Baker Spring, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation, said the second scenario would be the most likely course of action, keeping the weaponry on hand would preserve U.S. flexibility to quickly reintroduce it into the force if needed. “Maintaining an effective strategic posture is far more important that whatever marginal amount of money you might spend or save by adopting a certain route to meeting those target numbers,” he said. The administration already alluded to that course in its Nuclear Posture Review announced last January, Spring said (see GSN, Jan. 9). “I think the Nuclear Posture Review is clear that downloading the warheads is a better approach because of the flexibility it allows, over withdrawing platforms,” he said. The CBO analysis did not address the strategic implications of the various scenarios. Full Plans Not Specified Yet President George W. Bush and his Russian counterpart in May signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, which administration officials say commits the United States to having at most 2,200 warheads on strategic platforms on Dec. 31, 2012. The CBO report estimated the currently number of operationally deployed strategic warheads at about 5,910, using a traditional arms control formula that considers the number of warheads that could be deployed on various available strategic platforms. The new treaty text did not specify how its goal for 2012 should be met, allowing each country to decide whether to retain downloaded warheads and their platforms or to dismantle or destroy some of them. Bush administration officials have not yet specified what they intend to do with the downloaded warheads and many of their respective platforms, though they say they intend to keep many in reserve in case they are unexpectedly needed. The Bush administration did give some indication of its plans, however, with the Nuclear Posture Review. The review set an interim goal of having just 3,800 warheads operationally deployed by 2007. It said the reductions in operationally deployed warheads would be made, in part, with the planned retirement of all 50 Peacekeeper ICBMS, conversion of four Trident submarines to a non-nuclear role, and conversion of all 81 B-1 bombers to a conventional role. That would take about 1,000 warheads off of operationally deployed status, bringing the total down to about 4,800, still short of the 2007 goal, according to the congressional report. Achieving Numerical Goals The administration has not specified how it might further bring the number down to 3,800, the report said. The remaining strategic forces in 2007, it said, would be: 1,200 warheads on 500 Minuteman 3 missiles, 2,304 warheads on 14 Trident submarines, 256 warheads on 21 B-2 bombers, and 1,056 warheads on 76 B-52 bombers. The report said the administration could cut an additional 1,000 deployed warheads by counting fewer warheads per Trident and per Minuteman. CBO listed two possible alternatives for achieving the 2012 goal. The administration could further reduce the force structure by removing or retiring some warheads and delivery platforms, such as 150 Minuteman missiles and two additional Tridents, while converting the B-2 bombers to conventional roles. That would save $5 billion from reduced operations costs and from forgoing the costs of “development and procurement of new systems to upgrade the two Trident submarines and 150 Minutemen missile retired under this option,” it said. Alternatively, the United States could retain the 2007 force structure but reduce the number of warheads deployed per all platform types, which it said would cost $105 million over the next nine years. The CBO said it was unable to assess the cost of a third option, to convert strategic bombers and submarines for non-nuclear roles, while retaining the option for nuclear capability. The cost would depend on the details. The CBO cost estimates assume that the downloaded warheads are stored and not destroyed. Dismantling the warheads could have substantial costs, the report said. Citing Energy Department information, it said current capacity for dismantlement at the Pantex nuclear weapons assembly facility in Amarillo, Texas would be insufficient for dismantling all downloaded warheads by 2012, but could possibly complete the job by 2020-2025.
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