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International Response: Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Likely to Receive Limited Support By Mike Nartker The five Central Asian states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — appear ready to sign the treaty at a ceremony at a former Soviet nuclear test site in Kazakhstan during a visit to the region by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan in mid-October, the report said. The treaty contains a protocol that declared nuclear states are invited to sign, stating that they agree to respect the zone and to refrain from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against zone members. China, which has openly supported creating the zone, appears to be the nuclear-weapons state most likely to sign the protocol, according to the report. The United States has not openly supported creating the zone, preferring to wait until the final treaty was completed, the report said. Washington will probably have reservations about several measures in the treaty, including transit issues, negative security assurances and possible expansion of the zone, according to the report. Such reservations might prompt the United States to refuse to sign the treaty’s protocol. The United Kingdom and France will probably base their support of the treaty’s protocol largely on the U.S. position. Russia has previously expressed concerns over creating the zone and might use its influence among Central Asian states to try to modify the treaty or block its signature, the report said. The nuclear-weapons states have rejected protocols to past nuclear weapon-free zone treaties for several reasons. For example, no nuclear-weapons state has signed the protocol to the Bangkok Treaty to create a Southeast Asian nuclear weapon-free zone, saying it might be interpreted to interfere with sea-based activities, the report said. Stumbling Blocks The idea to create the Central Asian treaty, which establishes the first nuclear weapon-free zone located entirely in the Northern Hemisphere, originated in 1997 when the five countries in the region issued a declaration calling for the zone’s creation. Throughout the treaty’s development, two main issues arose to hinder negotiations: how the treaty would treat the possible transit of nuclear weapons through the zone and the relationship of the treaty to overlapping international agreements. Russia wanted to continue to be allowed to deploy nuclear weapons in the area, according to the report. Kazakhstan, which has maintained close relations with Russia, said that each state should be allowed to resolve the issue independently. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which had further distanced themselves from Russia, urged more restrictive language, the report said. The 1992 Tashkent Collective Security Treaty, to which Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan belong, prompted concerns about overlapping international agreements. Russia has interpreted that treaty as allowing it to deploy nuclear weapons within treaty countries if members jointly approve, the report said. While Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan wanted previous agreements to supercede the nuclear weapon-free zone treaty, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan disagreed. Reaching Agreement Negotiators reconciled the main stumbling blocks in the treaty’s development in several ways. The U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, in which the United States deployed military forces in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, helped reduce Russian pressure on the Central Asian states, and the region’s new prominence as a terrorism “hotspot” also helped move the treaty closer to completion, the report said. The final impetus for negotiations on the treaty came after a visit to the region by U.N. Undersecretary General for Disarmament Affairs Jayantha Dhanapala in August, according to the report (see GSN, Aug. 13). Dhanapala’s meetings with the foreign ministers and three presidents of the Central Asian states helped further efforts to create compromises on unresolved issues, ultimately leading to agreement. For further information, see:
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