In light of North Korea’s recent admission of its nuclear weapons program, the United States has decided to abandon the 1994 Agreed Framework, senior White House officials said Saturday (see GSN, Oct. 18).  Under the framework, North Korea had agreed to end its nuclear material production activities in exchange for two light-water nuclear power reactors.

“We think the framework as we knew it is dead,” said a senior Bush administration official. “The North Koreans already told us they viewed it as ‘nullified’” (David Sanger, New York Times, Oct. 20).

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell echoed those comments Sunday during an appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press.

“When you have an agreement between two parties, and one says it’s nullified, then it’s hard to see what you do with such an agreement,” Powell said (William Mann, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Oct. 20).

The U.S. withdrawal from the framework forces North Korea to choose between its nuclear weapons program and almost total isolation, according to the New York Times.  An immediate effect of the U.S. decision will be an end to annual shipments of about 500,000 tons of fuel oil to North Korea (Sanger, New York Times).  There are no plans, however, to cut off humanitarian food assistance, which is necessary to prevent starvation, officials said Sunday (Wright/Magnier, Los Angeles Times, Oct. 21).

To maintain a unified front with its allies, the Bush administration does not plan to publicly announce the U.S. withdrawal from the framework, officials said.

Internal Debate at the White House

A lengthy debate preceded the administration’s decision to end participation in the accord.  “There are some who fear that it could tempt the North Koreans into a rapid breakout, to produce weapons as fast as they can,” an official involved in the debate said.

U.S. President George W. Bush, however, had been previously doubtful of the framework’s effectiveness and viewed North Korea’s admission as proof the agreement was flawed all along, aides said.

To prevent North Korea from using the U.S. withdrawal as an excuse for further nuclear violations, the White House plans to caution Pyongyang of serious consequences if it tries to remove nuclear materials now stored under international supervision at Yongbyon, which was the focus of a U.S.-North Korean conflict in the early 1990s, according to the New York Times.  U.S. State Department officials visiting Beijing last week asked China to convey the warning to North Korea (Sanger, New York Times).

Pyongyang Confirms Program …

A North Korean diplomat last week confirmed the nuclear weapons program, but said North Korea has not yet operated its uranium-enrichment technology, sources said.

The delegate, a member of North Korea’s mission to the United Nations, said the U.S. announcement of Pyongyang’s nuclear program was “mostly true.”

During the recent U.S.-North Korean meeting in Pyongyang, Kang Sok Ju, North Korea’s first vice minister of foreign affairs, said his country had purchased the equipment, but it was not yet in operation, sources said (Asahi Shimbun, Oct. 19).

...Offers Conditions For Its End

North Korea today said it is willing to begin a dialogue with the United States to remove “security concerns” prompted by the revelation of its nuclear weapons program, according to Agence France-Presse.

“North Korea is ready to remove security concerns through dialogue if the United States is willing to scrap its hostile policy towards us,” Kim Young Nam, president of the North’s Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, said during talks with South Korean officials (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, Oct. 21).

U.S Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly yesterday said North Korea “did not make any demands” during the U.S. delegation’s visit to Pyongyang in early October.  They “did suggest there were measures that might be taken,” however, to convince them to comply with U.S. demands for an end to their nuclear weapons program, Kelly said.

“They indicated when all these good things were done, we might be able to talk about their covert enrichment program,” Kelly said.  “The North got it upside down” (Sanger, New York Times).

The conditions North Korea offered included a guarantee of no U.S. pre-emptive attack, recognition of the North Korean government and the signing of a U.S.-North Korean peace treaty, Kelly said.

Japanese analyst Toshimitsu Shigemura, a Takushoku University professor, said North Korea might have revealed its nuclear weapons program in an attempt to force the United States into negotiations.

“North Korea admitted to the program because it wants the United States to come to the negotiating table and set a path to improve relations,” he said.  “But I think this is a miscalculation.  Bush will not come” (Doug Struck, Washington Post, Oct. 21).

The White House today appeared to be unreceptive to North Korea’s calls for discussions, according to Reuters.  When asked if Bush was open to the idea, White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said, “North Korea has invited upon itself an isolationist course.”

“North Korea has put itself in position where most nations around the world have not wanted much to do with (it) because of North Korea’s actions and history,” Fleischer said.  “We’re going to consult with our allies about what the next step should be ... but let no one misunderstand, North Korea is where it is because of the nature of the North Korean government” (Arshad Mohammed, Reuters/Washington Post, Oct. 21).

 U.S. Diplomatic Efforts

The White House believes that diplomatic efforts should be enough to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said Sunday. 

“We’re not going to have a cookie cutter for foreign policy, where we try to apply the same formula to every case.  It would be foolhardy to do that,” Rice said on CNN’s Late Edition, addressing the administration’s apparently different approaches to North Korea and Iraq.  “The president put it very well when he said there may be many modalities, but there’s only one morality.  And the morality is that we are not prepared to allow nuclear powers of this kind to grow up.”

On CBS’s Face the Nation, Rice said, “We’re going to seek a peaceful solution to this.  We think that one is possible” (William Mann, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Oct. 21).

As part of its diplomatic efforts, the United States is expected to ask Japan and South Korea to suspend, if not end outright, plans to construct the two light-water reactors as called for under the framework, according to the New York Times.  South Korea, however, has begun to resist U.S. pressures over North Korea, partly due to fears that Pyongyang will feel trapped by any U.S.-led efforts to enact economic isolation, the Times reported (Sanger, New York Times).

Japan plans to discuss the nuclear issue with North Korea during normalization talks scheduled to be held in Malaysia Oct. 29-30, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi said Friday (Los Angeles Times, Oct. 19).

North Korean Allies

The United States also plans to urge North Korea’s friends, such as Russia, China and Pakistan, to end their ties with North Korea and to urge Pyongyang to end its nuclear weapons program.

The United States is working to develop “an international coalition” among both U.S. allies and North Korean allies to resolve the nuclear issue, said White House press secretary Fleischer.

“Since Sept. 11, we’ve developed a very different relationship with many of the countries on whom North Korea traditionally relies for technology, economic and diplomatic support,” he said.  “These countries want good and improved relations with the United States, and they have no interest in a nuclearized North Korea.  We also have close allies to whom North Korea is turning in desperation for economic health.  These nations also want a good relationship with the Untied States” (Financial Times, Oct. 19).

China’s cooperation is seen as key to U.S. diplomatic efforts, because it has the most influence over North Korea, according to analysts.  U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton and Kelly, who led the U.S. delegation to North Korea during the Pyongyang meeting, arrived in Beijing Thursday for a previously scheduled visit.

“We think the Chinese government shares our concern about the possible introduction of nuclear weapons into the Korean peninsula,” State spokesman Richard Boucher said.  “We hope to proceed on the basis of the concerns, and we will continue our consultations with China.”

Beijing believes that “the nuclear issue in (North Korea) should be solved through peaceful means, through dialogues and consultations,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue.

There were signs last week that China was surprised by North Korea’s admission of its nuclear weapons program, according to the Los Angeles Times.  A Chinese vice foreign minister had told a group of Chinese experts that the admission had taken him by surprise, according to a participant at the meeting.

“The perception of most Chinese people (toward North Korea) has really changed,” said Zhu Feng, an international relations scholar at Beijing University.  “Our neighbor is frequently causing us headaches” (Los Angeles Times).

Pakistan Remains Chief Suspect

There is evidence that North Korea obtained much of the necessary technology for its nuclear weapons program from Pakistan, another of its allies, according to officials familiar with the intelligence (Sanger, New York Times). 

Pakistan’s connection to North Korea’s nuclear weapon program is demonstrated through the type of gas centrifuge program Pyongyang has developed for uranium enrichment, which is “consistent with what the Pakistanis did 15 years ago,” said a U.S. official.

Senior Pakistani officials said they tried to stop their scientists from aiding North Korea, removing Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon, as head of Pakistan’s uranium-enrichment and ballistic missile programs (Robbins/Hussain, Wall Street Journal, Oct. 21).

Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, however, said Friday that a New York Times article outlining the U.S. intelligence on Pakistan’s possible involvement was “absolutely baseless.”

“There is no such thing as collaboration with North Korea in the nuclear arena,” Musharraf said (Sanger, New York Times).

Pakistan has assured the United States that it has not supplied North Korea with nuclear technologies nor will it do so, Powell said Sunday.

After talking with Musharraf on Saturday, “he gave me 400 percent assurance” that Pakistan had not aided North Korea, Powell said on Meet the Press (Masood Haider, Dawn, Oct. 21).

Russian companies also assisted North Korea’s nuclear weapons efforts by supplying important components, a senior U.S. official said.  U.S. intelligence indicates that Russian suppliers provided North Korea with specialty metals, valves, pumps and other components needed to run gas centrifuges, according to the Wall Street Journal.  There is no evidence of Moscow’s role in these transactions, or even if it was aware, but it could not be ruled out, several U.S. officials said.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko, however, denied any Russian involvement in North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

“This has absolutely nothing to do with reality,” Yakovenko said (Robbins/Hussain, Wall Street Journal).

New North Korean Program Details

The United States has indicated that the North Korean Academy of Sciences, near Pyongyang, is suspected of being one of three sites where North Korea conducted uranium-enrichment tests as part of its nuclear program, a diplomatic source said yesterday. 

The other two suspected sites are the Hagap region, located in the Jagang province and the city of Yeongjeo-dong in the Yanggang province, about 20 kilometers from the Chinese border, according to the source.  The United States informed South Korea about the three suspected test sites several days after the U.S.-North Korean meeting in Pyongyang, the source said (Shin Yong-bae, Korea Herald, Oct. 21).

For further information, see:

Agreed Framework Text

KEDO

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