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Iraq II: Inspections Could Take 10 Months, Says U.N. Inspections Official By David Ruppe It should take “10 months to have a definitive document on the desk of the Security Council,” said Ron Cleminson, a commissioner of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, the team responsible for investigating Iraq’s efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. Speaking at an event hosted by the Union of Concerned Scientists, Cleminson said his interpretation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1284, which authorized the creation of UNMOVIC, is that the commission must file a report within 10 months. The resolution itself is not specific on a timeframe. He further said he believed that deadline could be met if the Iraqis cooperate “proactively.” “One significant factor is that the Iraqis will have to provide cooperation, and by that I mean proactive cooperation. It isn’t going be the hunt-and-search kind of thing. The Iraqis are required by the Security Council resolution to bring the weapons forward, to bring the information on the programs forward,” he said. “And then, the function of UNMOVIC is to verify to a degree that they are in compliance.” Commission head Hans Blix, Cleminson said, has made it clear to Iraq that he does not plan to negotiate with them. “He has said this to the Iraqis, ‘If we sit down at the table and start to negotiate, I’m going to go home,’” Cleminson said. “Most critical” for success, he said, is “the U.S. government’s position that they cooperate or otherwise force will be applied.” The Bush administration is pushing the United Nations to adopt a shorter, 4 1/2-month deadline for an accounting. Biological Weapons Most Difficult Inspectors should have little trouble accounting for Iraq’s Scud missiles, Cleminson said, because Russia previously had provided information on exactly how many of those missiles had been provided to Iraq. He said earlier U.N. inspections had accounted for or destroyed 817 of 819 Scuds. Inspectors also should have little problem accounting for Iraq’s chemical and nuclear capabilities, he said, by confronting the Iraqis with data they previously provided and a wide range of intelligence and open source information about their capabilities. Regarding verification of nuclear capabilities, “I think they could probably do that really quickly if the Iraqis are in compliance,” he said. He said, though, it would be unlikely inspectors could ever develop 100 percent assurance of Iraq’s more easily concealable biological weapons capabilities. “The one area in which there is no answer is biological,” he said. Blix will have to “make his best technical judgment … and it will have to be preceded by [assuming that] nothing is perfect,” said Cleminson. “But then political judgment will have to be made by the Security Council, and if there are areas in which they are not happy with the result they will have to direct him on that and hopefully member states will cooperate on that.” Questions have persisted in the international community, though, regarding Iraq’s other holdings. There are questions about whether Iraq has homemade Scud-type missiles and U.S. intelligence has estimated Iraq probably has a small, covert force of such weapons (see GSN, Jan. 1). Iraq’s previous supposedly final disclosures about its capabilities are widely considered to be flawed. Rolf Ekeus, the former head of U.N. inspectors, told the Christian Science Monitor in August he has “very serious concerns” about Iraqi missile capabilities. “We don’t know how much they smuggled in there. My theory is that they have built production lines,” he said. U.S. Preparing for Possible War Sooner If Cleminson’s estimate for inspections is correct, it could pose a problem for a possible U.S. war against Iraq in the event the U.N. Security Council approves a resolution for inspectors to return and they do in fact do so. Depending upon when the inspectors return, the timeframe for inspections could delay any likely U.S. attack until next summer, when conditions would not be ideal for combat, and push it closer to the next U.S. presidential election. Analysts widely assume any success inspectors may have in Iraq would depend upon the credibility of a U.S.-led attack if the inspectors were thwarted from pursuing their mission. U.S. officials reportedly are massing forces for possible conflict, if the decision is made, as soon as late this year or early next year. The U.S.-proposed resolution for the Security Council currently under consideration would provide UNMOVIC with up to 135 days, or about 4 1/2 months, to report on Iraq’s cooperation, the Washington Post reported this week. Iraq would require file a “full, final and complete declaration” of its banned weapons programs within 30 days of the resolution’s adoption, the inspectors would have up to 45 days to resume inspections and an additional 60 days to report to the Security Council, the report said.
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