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Iraq II: Baghdad Continues WMD Development Efforts, CIA Says By Mike Nartker Many intelligence analysts believe that for the past four years, Iraq has sought to rebuild its nuclear weapons program, which was heavily set back because of the 1991 Gulf War and later U.N. inspections, the report says (see GSN, Sept. 11). Iraq has also heavily invested in its biological weapons program and worked to maintain its chemical weapons program. Nuclear Weapons Before the Gulf War, Iraq had developed an advanced nuclear weapons program that had some success in developing uranium enrichment techniques, according to the report. While U.N. inspections revealed most of the Iraqi nuclear weapons program, Iraq has still withheld relevant information, such as procurement logs, experimental data and foreign assistance, the report says. Iraq has also continued to hide information on enrichment techniques, weapons design and foreign procurement, it says. Iraq still has a large number of nuclear scientists, documents and sufficient dual-use capabilities to support a renewed nuclear weapons program, the report says. The increase in international trade with Iraq has also helped provide access to technology and materials, as well as foreign assistance, it says. Iraq’s ability to produce a deployable nuclear weapon is dependant on obtaining weapon-grade material. If Iraq is able to obtain sufficient amounts of material from foreign sources, it could have a useable weapon within a year, the report says (see GSN, Sept. 25). If Iraq has to rely on self-developed weapon-grade material, however, it could take until the last half of this decade to produce a weapon, it says. One area of concern regarding Iraq’s attempts to acquire weapon-grade materials is Baghdad’s efforts to obtain proscribed high-strength aluminum tubes, according to the report (see GSN, Sept. 19). Intelligence experts have said such tubes could be used in centrifuges to enrich uranium and some intelligence specialists have said this is Iraq’s intended use, the report says. It also says, however, that other intelligence specialists believe Iraq could intend to use the tubes in conventional weapons programs. Biological Weapons Iraq’s biological weapons programs have remained active and are larger and more advanced since the Gulf War, according to the CIA report. “The improvement or expansion of a number of nominally ‘civilian’ facilities that were directly associated with biological weapons indicates that key aspects of Iraq’s offensive BW program are active and most elements more advanced and larger than before the 1990-1991 Gulf War,” the report says. Iraq has maintained stockpiles of biological weapons agents, as well as the ability to deliver them with missiles, bombs, aerial sprayers and covert operations, according to the report. Iraq has also maintained its biological weapons production capabilities, through the use of dual-use plants and mobile laboratories, it says. A number of analysts believe that Iraq’s remaining ballistic missile arsenal and missile development efforts are intended to deliver biological weapons, the report says. Iraq is suspected of having retained a few dozen Scud-variant ballistic missiles with ranges of 650 to 990 kilometers, as well as of developing unmanned aerial vehicles and advanced short-range and medium-range missiles, it says. Chemical Weapons Iraq has resumed production of chemical weapons agents such as sarin, VX and mustard gas, and probably has stockpiles of 100 to 500 metric tons of agents, according to the CIA report (see GSN, Sept. 24). U.N. inspections, however, seriously reduced Iraq’s chemical weapons program and it is currently at a reduced state compared to what it was before the Gulf War, the report says. Iraqi VX production and storage capabilities, however, have probably improved, it says. The Iraqi chemical industry is capable of producing chemical weapons agents, although with the aid of external sources for some precursors, according to the report. Baghdad is working to expand its chemical weapons production capabilities through the use of dual-use plants, it says. The report notes chlorine and phenol plants at the Fallujah II site east of Baghdad, which have civilian uses but also could be used to develop blister and nerve agents. “Iraq has three other chlorine plants that have much higher capacity for civilian production; these plants and Iraqi imports are more than sufficient to meet Iraq's civilian needs for water treatment,” the CIA report says. For further information, see: U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime) U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”) U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Iraqi Sanctions Revisions
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