The first U.N. weapons inspectors arrived in Iraq today to begin preparations for a new round of weapons inspections as mandated under a new U.N. resolution (see GSN, Nov. 15).

“A new chapter of inspection” has begun, Ewen Buchanan, chief spokesman for the inspection team, said before the team left Cyprus for Iraq.

The team is prepared to meet the challenge of making sure Iraq complies with the new resolution, said Hans Blix, head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC).  He added that he hoped Iraq would not try to hide anything.

Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said yesterday that there was agreement on the need for “intrusive verifications — that means we would go everywhere, we will use every means at our disposal to make sure that Iraq does not have weapons of mass destruction.”

Inspectors plan to interview certain Iraqis in locations out of the country for their own safety if they might know vital information on WMD programs, ElBaradei said (see GSN, Nov. 15).  He added, however, “if people do not want to talk, we obviously will not be able to force them to talk” (Bassem Mroue, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Nov. 18).

Schedule

The next step in the inspections process is scheduled for Nov. 20, when IAEA technicians are to travel to Baghdad to being preparing for nuclear inspections (see GSN, Nov. 14).  IAEA and UNMOVIC inspectors are set to arrive in Baghdad Nov. 25, with limited inspections to begin shortly thereafter.  Iraq has until Dec. 8 to submit a declaration of its WMD programs to the IAEA, UNMOVIC and the U.N. Security Council (IAEA release, Nov. 15).

UNMOVIC and the IAEA must begin operations within Iraq by Dec. 23, which both agencies are expected to meet easily, according to Agence France-Presse.  The two agencies are supposed to update the Security Council on the progress of the inspections by Feb. 21, AFP reported.

UNMOVIC and the IAEA have within 60 days of beginning operations to outline “the key disarmament tasks” that Iraq must undertake.  Such a program would require Security Council approval.  Once inspections are underway and the remote monitoring system is in operation, Blix and ElBaradei are to report to the Security Council every 120 days (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 18).

Effective Inspections

In his last news conference before leaving for Iraq, Blix said Friday that the first inspectors should begin their work on Nov. 27, less than two weeks before Iraq is required to report to the Security Council on its weapons programs.  The 60-day countdown for the inspectors to report to the council will then begin, he said.  If Iraqi officials fail to fully reveal weapons programs by Dec. 8, the council might find Iraq in material breach of Resolution 1441, according to the text of the ruling.

“This is one of the most important moments we foresee,” Blix said.  “We have a great many questions,” Blix said.

Under repeated questioning, Blix refused to give any specifics as to what would constitute a “material breach,” according to the resolution, that could trigger military action against Iraq.

“We do not judge whether something constitutes a material breach,” he said.  “We will report factually on what has happened, and then it is for the Security Council to assess whether it constitutes a material breach … and it is for the council to decide what they will do about it.  One should not run to the conclusion that now there will be armed action,” he added.

“You need to nuance it,” Blix said, illustrating with an example using flat tires.  One flat tire on an Iraqi vehicle accompanying inspectors may mean nothing, but “four flat tires on the way out, delaying us much more, then it may be a different thing,” he said.  “What this points to is that you may have to take into account whether you can read an intention into something,” he added.

In response to Arab League and Iraqi demands that Arabs be included on the inspection teams, Blix said only that Jordanians have applied for posts.

“We have not had nominations,” he said.  UNMOVIC’s roster consists mostly of people from the United States, followed by France and Russia, he said, adding that he expects more Arab applications for the next training course in January (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Nov. 18).

United States vs. United Nations

The United States and the United Nations disagree over how aggressively inspectors should conduct their operations within Iraq, U.N and U.S. officials said.  The Bush administration has called for the strictest possible inspections, while Blix has called for a more measured approach, according to the Washington Post.

U.S. President George W. Bush has said that a “zero-tolerance” approach should be taken in regard to Iraq, meaning that even minor infractions of the new U.N. resolution could lead to potential military action.  Blix, along with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and some Security Council members, have said Iraq will only be held accountable for serious violations of the resolution.

“The U.S. does seem ... to have a lower threshold than others may have” to justify military action, Annan said last week before meeting with Bush.  “I think the discussion in the council made it clear we should be looking for something serious and meaningful, and not for excuses to do something,” he added (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Nov. 17).

U.S. War Plans

The United States is prepared to wait for Iraq’s response to U.N. inspections before going to the Security Council for a debate on possible military action, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 11).

“It seems to me that what will happen is a pattern of behavior will evolve and then people will make judgments with respect to it,” he said (Mroue, Associated Press).

The White House, however, has begun taking several diplomatic and military steps to prepare for an attack on Iraq, U.S. and allied officials said.  Such steps, which could take up to months to complete, include formalizing the roles of U.S. allies in an attack, discouraging Iraq’s neighbors from conducting their own actions and deciding whether to obtain Security Council approval for a strike, according to the New York Times.

The United States is seeking to accomplish two goals by beginning preparations for an attack, the Times reported.  One is to present a credible threat of force to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, which could cause him to comply with the resolution.  The second is to be ready for military action before the summer heat begins next year.

Some progress has already been made, U.S. officials said.  Several Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries, including Kuwait and Qatar, have given informal assurances of basing and overflight rights, according to the Times.  Those assurances, however, still need to be formalized.  Rumsfeld is expected to meet with U.S. allies this week during the NATO summit in Prague to discuss how allied troops could be replace U.S. forces stationed in Europe and the United States that would be moved to the Middle East.

The United States has also begun amassing tanks and heavy equipment for more than 30,000 soldiers stationed in several Middle Eastern countries and on nearby ships, the Times reported.  Additional heavy equipment for Army and Marine divisions will probably arrive in the region in three to four weeks.

A portion of a total U.S. force of about 250,000 troops needed to begin an attack on Iraq could be in position within 30 days of a presidential order to do so, senior U.S. military officials said.

“We’re making preparations every day,” U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said Friday.  “I don’t want to start saying exactly when we’re at peak readiness, but it would be a terrible mistake for anyone to underestimate our ability to act if needed.”

The United States has also begun convincing key Iraqi neighbors such as Turkey and Iran, of the need for restraint, according to the Times.  In exchange, Turkey has called on the United States to provide assurance that Iraq’s Kurdish population, located predominately in the northern part of the country, will not try to form its own state.  In order to help reduce Turkish concerns, the Pentagon is planning to send U.S. troops to protect oil fields around the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk, the Times reported.

Washington has also begun attempting to convince Iran to stay out of any conflict with Iraq because of concerns that Tehran could attempt to incite Iraq’s Shiite majority, which belongs to the same branch of Islam as most Iranians, to capture Baghdad or to form its own country (see GSN, Aug. 9).  In exchange for its cooperation, however, Iran wants the United States to release billions of dollars of assets frozen after the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, according to the Times.  Iran also wants assurances of U.S. assistance for Iraqi refugees who might enter Iran in the event of war.

Iran’s attempts to negotiate with the Untied States were evident when Javad Zarif, Iran’s U.N. ambassador, tried to gain permission to meet with members of the U.S. Congress, the Times reported.  The U.S. State Department, which must approve Zarif’s travels beyond New York, refused to grant him permission to stay overnight, and he canceled the trip.

“I think sooner or later we will have better relations with Iran,” U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Friday.  “We stay in touch with people who might be on the same side of this as us, but I don’t want to give the impression there is a great rapprochement about to take place with respect to Iran” (Dao/Schmitt, New York Times, Nov. 18).

Iraqi Mobile Biological Laboratories

In Iraq, U.S. officials are concerned about finding and destroying mobile biological weapons laboratories, the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 14).

U.S. officials have said they are unsure how many such laboratories exist or what they look like, although they have pictures of what appear to be laboratories housed in 18-wheel tractor-trailers, according to the Times.  Iraq might use several different types of vehicles to confuse pursuers, experts said.

“We know they’re there,” a senior U.S. intelligence official said.  “We don’t know 100 percent what’s in them,” the official added (see GSN, Nov. 12).

The official compared the task of searching for the mobile biological weapons laboratories with the search last month for a white truck believed to be used by a sniper in the Washington area.

“Look how many white vans were stopped here in D.C. looking for a sniper,” the official said.  “There are a lot of trucks (in Iraq), a lot of trailers ... I think it’s going to be real hard to find them,” the official added.

If the confusion resulting from a U.S. attack were to enable a group such as al-Qaeda to obtain biological agents, the situation could become “the greatest proliferation disaster in history,” said Daniel Benjamin, a former National Security Council official.

Even if all of the mobile biological facilities are discovered, there is debate about the best way to handle them, according to the Times.  While the laboratories could be destroyed, such a course of action could also result in the dispersal of any freeze-dried biological agents inside, an official said.

“Without knowing what’s in it, you’d be ill-advised to just bomb it,” the official said.  “If you drop a 500-pound bomb on a truck, even if it’s a ‘smart’ bomb, you may be releasing some real bad stuff on a community,” the official added (Richter/Miller, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 17).

Improved Detection Equipment

U.N. inspectors now have at their disposal a wide range of WMD detection equipment — ranging from more portable sample-collection devices to ground-penetrating radar systems that can detect electrical equipment up to 100 feet below the ground — that will make them better equipped than they were in 1998, developers said.

Combined with an improved remote monitoring system, the new detection equipment has enabled U.N. inspectors to better detect illicit WMD materials, even if a site has been thoroughly cleaned before they arrive, the London Guardian reported.

“It’s a matter of time and of retaining custody of the sample,” said John Carrico of Smiths Detection.  “These technologies have been improved to get down to very trace levels,” he said.

Inspectors have said, however, that improved detection equipment cannot substitute for “human factors,” such as intelligence and training.

“You guys are putting way too much emphasis on the technology,” said Mark Gwozdecky, IAEA senior spokesman.  “The most important aspect that the inspector has is his human intelligence, and the sixth sense that comes after you’ve developed some experience and judgment” (Oliver Burkeman, London Guardian, Nov. 18).

Iraq Increases Nuclear Efforts

Meanwhile, Iraq has increased its efforts over the last few months to illegally purchase weapon-grade uranium, according to David Kay, former chief U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq.

“They’ve been on a much more active campaign to buy enough material to build at least one or two bombs,” Kay said.

There have been reports of Iraqi agents traveling to former Soviet states such as Ukraine as well as to other Middle Eastern countries, China and South Africa to attempt to purchase nuclear materials, Kay said.  “They were traveling with bags of money,” he said of the Iraqi agents (Hamilton/Lathem, New York Post, Nov. 18).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

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