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Iraq I: Inspectors Visit New Sites as Analysts Comb Declaration U.N. weapons inspectors visited several new sites today believed to be connected with Iraq’s efforts to develop nuclear and biological weapons, according to reports (see GSN, Dec. 10). Today, inspectors continued work at the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center and at the Ashakat phosphate mining facility, both believed to be connected to Iraq’s nuclear weapons program (CNN.com, Dec. 11). Inspectors also visited the bin Sina nuclear site, located in Tarmiya, about 20 miles northwest of Baghdad, and the Fateh chemical site on the outskirts of the Iraqi capital. In addition, they revisited the Amariyah Serum and Vaccine Institute at Abu Ghraib, just west of Baghdad, according to Reuters (Nadim Ladki, Reuters/MSNBC, Dec. 11). Yesterday, an International Atomic Energy Agency team worked to determine the current activities at four sites that the group visited in the al-Karama complex — bin al-Haytham, the al-Sumood factory, the al-Fatah Company and stores of the Military Industrialization Committee — and to learn more about the use of various previously known equipment, the agency said in a press release yesterday (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Dec. 10). The al-Fatah Company is believed to be connected to efforts to develop ballistic missiles, according to CNN (CNN.com, Dec. 11). Also yesterday, a team from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited two sites, the Saddam Center for Biotechnology and the National Project for Controlling Brucellosis and Tuberculosis, the IAEA said. Inspectors at the Saddam Center, a newly declared site, gathered information to set a baseline for future inspections. They conducted similar inspections at the Brucellosis and Tuberculosis site to reset a baseline in accordance with information that Iraq submitted in October (see GSN, Oct. 2). The UNMOVIC team also confirmed the location of a newly declared third site, in Baghdad, involved in research on communicable diseases, the IAEA said (IAEA release). U.S. Analyzes Declaration In Washington, the CIA is expected to give the White House today a preliminary analysis of the 12,000-page declaration that Iraq recently submitted to the United Nations to outline its WMD programs, Bush administration officials said. “The CIA is working on it, and the analysis will obviously take time, but the agency will prepare a preliminary assessment tomorrow and will send it to the White House,” an administration official said yesterday. It may take a “few weeks” to complete a more detailed assessment that compares the information in the declaration with U.S. intelligence, an official said. Officials distributed the U.S. copy of the declaration yesterday to CIA counterproliferation, linguistics and weapons experts, and sent some sections to weapons experts at other U.S. agencies, the Washington Times reported. “The CIA is in charge. There must be six or eight agencies involved,” a U.S. official said. The United States plans to analyze the declaration carefully to “understand what it is that Iraq is purporting to declare, as well as what they have failed to declare,” White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said (Pisik/Kralev, Washington Times, Dec. 11). The United States might be ready by the end of the week to declare that Iraq is in “material breach” of U.N. Resolution 1441 — which mandates the Iraqi declaration and U.N. inspections — because early reviews of the declaration have led U.S. officials to believe that it contains “serious deficiencies,” one senior administration official said. The U.S. response to the declaration “will be a fairly definitive readout, but not a blow-by-blow rebuttal” a senior administration official said. The official added that the U.S. response would probably be presented in a document of more than 100 pages that includes small amounts of classified information (Joel Mowbray, Washington Times, Dec. 11). Iraq yesterday criticized the United States for obtaining an early copy of the declaration, calling the U.S. move “an act of unprecedented extortion in the history of the United Nations.” In a statement released by the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, Iraq accused the United States of “possibly forging what it wants to forge” in the declaration to persuade other countries that Iraq has lied (John Burns, New York Times, Dec. 11). U.N. Translates Meanwhile, in a meeting with U.N. Security Council members yesterday, U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said he expects to translate a working version of the Iraqi declaration by Monday and to complete a preliminary assessment by Dec. 19. Blix and several council members said they expect to distribute an edited declaration to the full council by early next week. “The bottleneck, frankly, is translation,” Blix said. “We have about 500 pages in Arabic which need to be translated,” he added (Pisik/Kralev, Washington Times). Blix told the five permanent Security Council members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — that by Friday he wants their assessments of what information should be omitted. China and Russia said they probably would not have their assessments ready in time, according to the New York Times. Blix also told the Security Council that the United Nations would not release the names of non-Iraqi companies in the declaration because they might provide valuable information, the Times reported. Those companies could report which items Iraq has tried to purchase and where, Blix said (Julia Preston, New York Times, Dec. 11). Regarding the substance of the declaration, Blix only said that it “covers the period of time practically up to the present. They have not done that before, so it is evident that there will be something new, but … as for any revisions of the past, I do not know” (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Dec. 11). Iraqi Scientists In Baghdad, officials have yet to give U.N. inspectors a list of scientists involved in WMD programs, even though the United Nations requested the list two weeks ago, according to USA Today. “We are still waiting for the list of names,” U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said. “Cooperation has to be judged over time. It is only the beginning of the process,” he added (Vivienne Walt, USA Today, Dec. 11). Iraqi officials have begun moving scientists to positions with no direct involvement in WMD programs to put them beyond the reach of U.N. inspectors, according to the Western officials and Iraqi defectors. “These are the people with the know-how, so the best way to hide the know-how is to hide the people,” a Western official said. “Most of those working on the nuclear program in the 1980s and early 1990s have been sent away to university or industrial positions,” said Hussein al-Shahristani, the former chief researcher for Iraq’s atomic energy agency. “Some have been sent outside Iraq, including those working on chemical and biological warfare agents,” he added. Iraqi officials have already begun telling scientists and others involved in WMD programs that their families will be in danger if they reveal sensitive information to inspectors, according to the London Sunday Telegraph. Some personnel have been sent to countries such as Libya and Syria and told to remain there while their families are kept in Iraq, the Sunday Telegraph reported (Wastell/Gilmore, London Sunday Telegraph, Dec. 8). U.S. officials have said that any attempt by Iraq to block access to scientists will be seen as a material breach of the U.N. resolution, according to the Los Angeles Times. “If anyone should show up black and blue, that would also be seen as a sign of poor Iraqi cooperation,” a senior U.S. State Department official said. The United States has proposed that inspectors summon scientists both individually and in groups of as many as 50 to multiple interviews both within and outside Iraq, White House officials said yesterday. The purpose of such a plan would be to get several scientists in each of Iraq’s WMD programs — nuclear, biological, chemical and missile — to provide information, according to the Times. The United States wants the scientists to provide enough information to convince the international community that Iraq is still hiding its WMD arsenals and programs, White House officials said. “Now that the Iraqi declaration is in, the scientists will become a hugely important tool,” said a senior State Department official. At first, it will be difficult to persuade the scientists to talk, officials said. “We’re looking for one string to pull so we can begin to unravel the whole thing,” the State official said. Most Iraqi scientists eventually would be willing to talk, said Khidir Hamza, a former scientist in Iraq’s nuclear program. “The majority of scientists don’t like the government or the thuggish family running the country, confiscating property, enriching themselves, restricting movement, threatening their families,” Hamza said. The scientists, however, are unlikely to make the first move in contacting inspectors, according to experts. “No one will volunteer due to the fear of consequences,” said Martin Indyk, who dealt with Iraqi defectors while on the National Security Council during the Clinton administration. The White House is responsive to concerns that Iraqi scientists could be seen as traitors if they cooperate, especially if U.S. intelligence is overseeing the effort, U.S. officials and former inspectors said. By working with the United Nations, however, the scientists could be seen as trying to save Iraq, they said. “Iraqi scientists are not going to go to the CIA. If they do, they’re done as Iraqis. They might as well just plan to move to Detroit and open a 7-Eleven,” a U.S. official said. “Those who believe in Iraq and want to help in a post-Saddam Iraq will want to go to the U.N. and be able to say they didn’t betray their country,” the official added (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 11). Goods Review List At the United Nations, meanwhile, the United States has called for several new additions to the U.N. Goods Review List of items that Iraq must not import without Security Council approval, including new types of antibiotics, smaller trucks and fast work boats, according to the Financial Times (see GSN, Dec. 5). The proposed changes would include antibiotics such as ciproflaxacin and doxycycline, which are used in the event of exposure to anthrax. The United States has also proposed changing the parameters under which Iraqi orders are subject to review, the Times reported. Debate over the proposals should end in about two weeks, experts said. One U.N. diplomat, however, has criticized the proposals, the Times reported. “For the first time we are presented with a proposal to put medicine on the list — which has never been under embargo,” the diplomat said. “The GRL had been presented as a generous offer which shifted the blame for the humanitarian situation from the UN to the Iraqi government. This proposal is another nail in the coffin; it will raise problems,” the diplomat added (Mark Turner, Financial Times, Dec. 11). For further information, see: U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime) U.N. Resolution 1409 (“Smart Sanctions”)
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