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Iraq I: United States Expected to Declare Baghdad Is Violating U.N. Resolutions The United States is expected to announce tomorrow that Iraq has violated the recent U.N. resolution requiring it to reveal all of its weapons of mass destruction, senior Bush administration officials said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 17). Senior U.S. State Department nonproliferation official John Wolf met yesterday with U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix to outline the flaws U.S. intelligence agencies have said they have found in Iraq’s WMD declaration, according to the New York Times. While Wolf did not provide Blix with the data used to support the U.S. evaluation of the declaration, “we gave him the thrust with some examples,” a Bush administration official said (Sanger/Preston, New York Times, Dec. 18). The White House is expected to publicly present the U.S. assessment of the declaration Friday, the day after U.N. inspectors brief the Security Council on it, according to the Washington Post. U.S. President George W. Bush might deliver the statement himself, the Post reported. The United States and U.N. inspectors agree that the declaration fails to provide a full and accurate picture of Iraq’s WMD efforts as called for under U.N. Resolution 1441, sources said (see GSN, Nov. 8; Pincus/DeYoung, Washington Post, Dec. 18). The United States has chosen to wait until at least Friday to reveal its assessment of the declaration to avoid being seen as trying to pre-empt the U.N. report, U.S. officials said. “We’re not going to get too detailed on Thursday. We’re not going to be talking so much about mustard gas and (nerve agent) VX as the fact that there were omissions in the declaration,” a U.S. official said. “It wasn’t detailed enough. It didn’t give any proof as to what was destroyed,” the official added. When the United States does present its assessment, it will only be a preliminary maneuver, officials said. “Don’t bill this as a definitive or instant grand jury indictment on Thursday,” a senior State official said. “We will base our final conclusions down the road on the Blix assessment as well as on further analysis, discussions with supplier countries (that sold Iraq items used for weapons systems), other permanent members of the Security Council and other things,” the official added (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 18). Senior U.S. national security advisers met yesterday to discuss the Iraq issue, including the issue of when Bush should declare that Iraq is in “material breach” of the resolution, according to several officials. Bush is expected to consider the question during a national security meeting set for today, officials said (Sanger/Preston, New York Times). During yesterday’s meeting, White House foreign policy officials began preparing a three-pronged strategy to launch after the United Nations presents its assessment of the declaration, Bush administration officials said. The strategy will include a public relations campaign to convince the U.S. public and other countries that Iraq has not fully revealed its WMD programs, a diplomatic campaign to build Security Council unity for further action, and planning for a new round of strengthened inspections to prove that Iraq has lied, the officials said (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times). As part of the toughened inspections, the United States plans to provide U.S. intelligence data to inspectors and hopes they will also be able to interview scientists who were involved with Iraqi WMD programs, officials said. The overall purpose of the strategy is to find a “smoking gun” to prove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has lied when he has said Iraq no longer possesses weapons of mass destruction, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Proving Hussein has lied, however, will be an difficult task, a State official said (Strobel/Ibarguen, Philadelphia Inquirer, Dec. 18). Security Council Even though the United States and the United Kingdom agree that the declaration is heavily flawed, Washington expects different reactions from the remaining permanent council members — China, France and Russia, said U.S. officials and U.N. diplomats. The officials and diplomats said they believe, however, that the Security Council will decide that now is not the right time for military action against Iraq, according to the Los Angeles Times. “Expect to see varying degrees of reaction — some will say partial breach, others will say complete,” said a Security Council diplomat. “The only point of full agreement is that this is not the trigger for military action,” the diplomat added (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times). Russian U.N. Ambassador Sergey Lavrov yesterday called on countries to refrain from making a judgment on the declaration until the inspectors have presented their report. “We are not happy that some people in Washington are trying to interpret in public the resolution in a way that is clearly prejudging what inspectors say,” Lavrov said (Turner/Williamson, Financial Times, Dec. 18). The 10 nonpermanent Security Council members were given an opportunity yesterday to receive edited copies of the Iraqi declaration. Some of the declaration’s annexes and Arabic materials might be given to the nonpermanent council members later if the Security Council agrees to do so, said U.N. spokesman Ewen Buchanan. The International Atomic Energy Agency presented copies of its report on Iraq nuclear program to the nonpermanent council members yesterday, according to the Associated Press. The edited declaration contains many deletions, including the names of foreign individuals and companies as well as some Iraqis, a Security Council diplomat said. Some of the editing, however, appears to have been done quickly, for example, leaving the names of some Swiss and West German companies in the missile section still discernible, according to the diplomat. “There seem to be a lot of gaps and omissions in this declaration but they seem to be produced by UNMOVIC [the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission], the IAEA and the five permanent members, not by Iraq,” a diplomat said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 18). Scientists Meanwhile, as requested by inspectors Iraq has begun preparing a list of personnel who worked in its WMD programs, U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said. “I understand they are working on it,” he said. The list is expected to include personnel ranging from top WMD program officials to scientists and engineers, Ueki said (DAWN, Dec. 18). Inspections U.N. inspectors searched at least nine suspect Iraqi sites today, according to Reuters. UNMOVIC inspectors visited a Baghdad water facility; a missile launch pad north of Baghdad; and a paint factory in southern Iraq, Iraqi officials said. UNMOVIC teams also visited a Directorate for Military Works and Clothing Stores depot and the biology department of a university in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. They revisited the al-Nassr Company for Mechanical Industries in the Taji area north of Baghdad. IAEA inspectors visited the Engineering Industries Institute and the al-Fida Company in Dora, just south of Baghdad, according to Reuters. A second IAEA team visited the Saddam Dam near Mosul (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Dec. 18). Yesterday, an UNMOVIC biological team traveled to Mosul to visit previously declared sites in the area, according to an IAEA press release. UNMOVIC missile experts visited the Oxidizer Production plant, which produces ballistic missile fuel; and the al-Almeen Factory, which produces components for the al-Fet’h and al-Abour missiles. An UNMOVIC chemical team revisited the Fallujah 2 site. IAEA experts visited the Iraqi Plant, a previously declared site, the agency release said. An additional eight UNMOVIC inspectors arrived in Baghdad yesterday, bringing the total number of inspectors to 113 — 94 from UNMOVIC and 19 from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Dec. 17). For further information, see:
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