By Bryan Bender
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The Group of Eight economic powers have held a series of discussions in recent weeks to advance their $20 billion proposal to help dismantle former Soviet weapons and materials.  International officials and arms control advocates, however, remain concerned about the lack of a coordinating mechanism for the complex effort and the shortage of financial commitments.

The G-8 agreed in Canada in June to allocate the money over the next decade to build on U.S.-funded Cooperative Threat Reduction projects in the former Soviet Union — with half of the money to come from Washington and the rest to be split between the remaining G-8 member states, including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany, Canada, Japan and Russia (see GSN, June 28).

Six months after this Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction was announced, government officials and analysts report only modest progress in laying the foundation for what would be the largest international effort to date to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, materials and expertise. 

France, which will take over the G-8 leadership next year, hopes to have the effort ironed out by next June when heads of state reconvene in Evian, France, so that projects can get underway.

A Flurry of Activity

In an effort to meet that goal, international officials have recently held a series of multilateral and bilateral meetings to advance the G-8 agenda, including negotiating legal agreements, identifying which set of threat reduction projects each partner country will undertake, and determining how to invite non-G-8 participation in the effort.

This week in Brussels, for example, the European Commission held an ad hoc conference “to take stock” in nonproliferation efforts in Russia and the former Soviet Union.  Participants from the United States, Canada, the European Union, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Russia, and a variety of international organizations attended.

“In the frame of the new G-8 global partnership against the spread of weapons and materials of mass destruction, launched at the summit in Kananaskis, Canada, discussions are proceeding to foster further support and facilitate the effective implementation of the programs,” the European Commission said in a statement.

Other bilateral steps have been undertaken in recent weeks.  For example, Canada recently allocated an initial $5 million under the G-8 initiative toward destroying Russian chemical weapons, one of many projects in need of substantially more funding, Itar-TASS reported on Nov. 23.  Similar aid is expected from Japan and Switzerland, while Italy and Germany have provided aid for chemical weapons destruction in the past, according to the report.

Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov and Canadian Deputy Defense Minister Ken Calder met in Moscow on Dec. 10 to discuss further nonproliferation cooperation.

In mid-November, Mamedov also met with British Deputy Foreign Secretary Peter Ricketts to discuss the agenda for the Evian summit.

Germany has also begun consultations with Russia to advance their cooperation on reducing the WMD threat.  In late November a German delegation visited Russia to discuss the G-8 Global Partnership, officials said.

“Our talks with German experts have come as the first step in implementing the agreements that the G-8 leaders reached at their summit in Canada this summer,” said Russian Ammunition Agency head Zinovy Pak, who oversees Russia’s chemical weapon destruction program.

He noted that the global partnership “gives priority to providing Russia with large financial assistance to help it dispose of its chemical weapons.”  German efforts will focus on the construction of a second chemical weapons destruction facility in Kambarka, he said.

In other related discussions, Mamedov met last week with Japan’s ambassador to Russia, Issei Nomura, to discuss expanded Russian-Japanese cooperation in the fight against terrorism and WMD proliferation.

U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), incoming chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said partner nations have begun to lay out other focus areas for the G-8 aid beyond chemical weapon destruction.  He told Global Security Newswire in an interview last week that European nations appear willing to take on the issue of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, which are not covered by any treaties.

Nonstrategic submarines are another area ripe for attention given their nuclear fuel.  “We are not empowered to do this right now,” Lugar said.  Another area of interest for the G-8 nations, according to U.S. State Department officials, includes the disposition of excess plutonium.

More discussions are planned for early next year, both in government and nongovernmental forums.  For example, the private Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Carnegie Corporation of New York will sponsor a Jan. 20 meeting in London “to explore concrete recommendations” for sustaining and building upon the G-8 partnership, according to an agenda.

Lack of Coordination, Funding

Although the G-8 agenda is moving forward, impediments remain that officials said could delay projects, including the lack of a coordinating mechanism and the failure on the part of G-8 countries to allocate all the money promised.

“There are some good ideas, but to say the least the situation is only at the beginning,” Lugar told GSN. 

Lugar and others have expressed concern that G-8 countries do not plan to establish or designate a central authority to coordinate the variety of threat reduction projects that should be pursued, from reducing strategic missiles, bombers, silos and submarines to ending weapon-grade plutonium production and destroying chemical weapons, to name a few (see GSN, Sept. 6).

John Bolton, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, told Congress in September that each participating country would pursue their own nonproliferation projects independently with Russia.  “We made a very basic decision … that each country would essentially run its own program,” Bolton said at the time.  “We would not set up a new multilateral organization.”

The partner nations, however,  “need to work out a more coordinating mechanism,” Lugar said last week.

Karl Inderfurth, former assistant secretary of state for South Asia and a senior advisor to the Nuclear Threat Reduction Campaign, agreed. He said in an interview this morning that without some sort of coordinating mechanism, the overall G-8 effort is at risk of being implemented haphazardly and that critically important projects could inadvertently fall by the wayside.

Another obstacle is lack of adequate resources.  “There are concerns … with funding,” Inderfurth said.  “Less than half of the $10 billion from countries other than the U.S. has been pledged,” he said.

Besides, he pointed out, even if all of the pledges are realized, they would still fall short of the $30 billion over the next decade that many experts believe is required, particularly to expand threat reduction projects beyond Russia and the former Soviet Union.

“It has initially focused on Russia,” he said, “but has possibilities to expand beyond that starting point.”

The need for substantially more nonproliferation funding worldwide is fueling stepped-up efforts by arms control advocates to lobby political leaders for a greater commitment to reducing the spread of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

“While we are encouraged that your administration has taken a number of important initial steps here at home and with our allies abroad, including the G-8, on securing funding for critical nonproliferation programs, we believe we must do even more as our efforts thus far have fallen significantly short,” Inderfurth and Bobby Muller, president of the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation, told U.S. President George W. Bush in a letter earlier this month.

Meanwhile, other outstanding issues for the G-8 partnership include the need for new and complex legal agreements between Russia and partner countries to pave the way for new projects.  Also threatening progress are continued U.S. accusations that Russia is providing weapons and nuclear technology to Syria, Iran and other possible proliferation threats (see GSN, Oct. 11).

In late November, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov denied that there have been problems in moving the dialogue forward, saying that “we are working on the implementation of this initiative.”

Yet after meeting with Lugar in Washington this morning, Ivanov acknowledged there would be bumps in the road.  “There are problems that arise along the way of implementation of those programs,” he told reporters, “and that is why we meet regularly to discuss them and to open ways for mutual cooperation.”

“We pin our hopes on this program,” Ivanov said.

[EDITOR’S NOTE: Richard Lugar is a board member of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by National Journal Group.]

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