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Iraq I: Inspectors Discover Equipment Missing From Missile Site At a key Iraqi ballistic missile site, several pieces of equipment that inspectors had tagged in 1998 are now missing, U.N. weapons inspectors learned yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 2). A team from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspections Commission discovered the discrepancy during an inspection of the Waziriyah site of the al-Karama General Company, located outside Baghdad. In 1998, the site contained several pieces of equipment tagged by U.N. inspectors. Iraqi officials said that U.S. and British bombing destroyed some of the missing equipment in 1998 and some has been transferred to other sites, according to a press statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is responsible for tracking Iraq’s nuclear weapons efforts (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Dec. 2). A similar situation occurred last week, according to the New York Times. On Thursday, the second day of the new round of inspections, inspectors discovered that a fermenter was missing from an animal vaccine laboratory south of Baghdad that had once been involved in developing biological weapons, according to the Times. During that visit, however, Iraqi officials said the missing fermenter had been moved and took inspectors to a veterinary site north of Baghdad to examine it (John Burns, New York Times, Dec. 3). The Waziriyah site is believed to have been involved in Iraq’s development of the al-Samoud missile, according to the IAEA statement (IAEA release, Dec. 2). The al-Samoud, a scaled-down version of the Scud ballistic missile, is permitted under U.N. restrictions because it has a declared range of less than 150 kilometers, according to CIA documents. Some versions of the missile, however, are believed to have a range of almost 950 kilometers, according to the New York Times. Experts have been concerned about Iraq’s intensive development of the al-Samoud, which has included several flight tests since the Waziriyah site was repaired in 1999, the Times reported. The missile is believed to be part of efforts to develop a multistage long-range missile, according to experts. The CIA has said, however, that there are still flaws in the al-Samoud, including a shaky guidance system (Burns, New York Times). More Details Emerge on Distillery Inspections IAEA nuclear inspectors yesterday visited three distilleries outside of Baghdad, the Washington Post reported today. The inspectors did not say why they chose to visit the distilleries or what, if anything, they found. “All sites with industrial/technical capability are of interest to us and need to be assessed to determine relevance or not to a nuclear program,” an IAEA spokesman said. “Any site with industrial/technical capability can be used to conceal illicit activity,” he added. One reason that inspectors targeted the distilleries might have been to test Iraq’s willingness to allow inspectors to visit any site they choose and to confuse Iraqi officials, according to the Post. “Sometimes we don’t know what we’re going to find,” a U.N. official said. “We’ve got to be able to surprise them. We wouldn’t be very good inspectors if we only visited places that are logical,” the official added. U.N. officials indicated that the inspectors were acting on a tip that nuclear-related equipment was being stored at a distillery. Nothing appeared to have been found, the Post reported. “We’ve got to follow up on a lot of leads,” the U.N. official said. “Not all of them lead to something productive,” the official added. U.N. inspectors had previously visited one of the distilleries, the Awali Co., during the 1990s, but that visit had centered on biological and chemical weapons, U.N. officials said (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Dec. 3). First Palace Inspection U.N. inspectors today visited one of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s palaces and were quickly admitted. The inspectors appeared to have found nothing at the al-Sajoud palace, the Associated Press reported. “The Iraqi side was cooperative,” said Gen. Hossam Mohammed Amin, chief Iraqi liaison officer. “The inspectors were happy,” Amin added. During the 1990s, inspectors had only been allowed to visit Hussein’s presidential palaces after U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan negotiated an agreement with Hussein saying inspectors could visit with diplomatic escorts and advance notice. The new U.N. resolution on Iraq, however, calls for unrestricted access (Charles Hanley, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 3). IAEA to Begin Analyzing Samples Meanwhile, the IAEA plans to begin analyzing environmental samples collected by inspectors within two weeks, the agency said today. IAEA officials hope to have results ready by Jan. 27, when the agency is supposed to report to the U.N. Security Council, agency spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said. The samples that inspectors are collecting are to be shipped to an IAEA laboratory southeast of Vienna, according to the Associated Press. If needed, some samples will then be sent to other laboratories for further confirmation, Gwozdecky said. “It’s a painstaking process, and they’ll be really pushed to have results before Jan. 27,” Gwozdecky said (William Kole, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 3). “Signs Not Encouraging,” Bush Says U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that the initial signs of Hussein’s compliance with inspections are “not encouraging.” “In the inspections process, the United States will be making one judgment: Has Saddam Hussein changed his behavior of the last 11 years? Has he decided to cooperate willingly and comply completely, or has he not?” Bush said. “A regime that fires upon American and British pilots is not taking the path of compliance. A regime that sends letters filled with protests and falsehoods is not taking the path of compliance.” It is Hussein’s responsibility, and not that of inspectors, to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, Bush said. Instead, the inspectors’ mission is to simply confirm Iraq’s disarmament, he said. “Any act of delay, deception, or defiance will prove that Saddam Hussein has not adopted the path of compliance and has rejected the path of peace,” Bush said (U.S. State Department transcript, Dec. 2). A Day in The Life New York Times correspondent John Burns, in an interview yesterday with PBS’s NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, described how inspectors worked to maintain secrecy about which sites they have chosen to visit. Each day, inspectors begin their trip to a suspect Iraqi site in a way “somewhat reminiscent of that Gene Hackman car chase in the French Connection,” Burns said. Inspectors drive quickly and erratically in attempt to throw off Iraqi officials, he said. Such methods are not very effective though, he said, because the inspectors soon settle on a course to the site they have chosen and Iraqi officials radio ahead to all established weapons sites — those identified during inspections in the 1990s — along that course, Burns said. “In consequence ... the Iraqis are ready for them, they’re well prepared, the gates are opened promptly, there’s great courtesy, there’s quite a considerable amount of geniality and smiling and the inspectors have told us they don’t actually seriously expect to find major breaches of the past resolutions or Resolution 1441 [the new U.N. resolution on Iraq],” Burns said (Gwen Ifill, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, Dec. 2). The inspectors themselves have indicated they often feel pulled in opposite directions by the United States and Iraq, each with different objectives, according to the New York Times. “Do the Americans want us to succeed? How would I know?” a senior inspections official said. As for the Iraqis, “they sit across the table from us and tell us ‘We have zero, zero, zero.’ And of course, zero, zero, zero is a red flag to our bull,” the official added (John Burns, New York Times, Dec. 2). Cost of War The cost of a U.S. war on Iraq and a postwar occupation could range from $100 billion to $200 billion, according to estimates prepared by congressional staff members and independent analysts. A protracted war, however, which could include Hussein destroying Iraqi oil fields, could lead to greater indirect costs to the U.S. economy, according to economists. In contrast, the U.S. costs for the 1991 Gulf War totaled $7 billion. The United States was able to escape with paying such a small amount because of aid from U.S. allies, which absorbed most of the cost, according to the Washington Post. Estimates are higher for a new war with Iraq, in part, because allies are believed to be reluctant to help fund new military action. Some Democrats in Congress have criticized the White House for refusing to engage in a public debate over the possible costs of a war with Iraq. “If we can plan a war, we should also be planning a way to pay for the war,” said Representative John Spratt (D-S.C.). It is too soon, however, to begin discussing the possible costs of a war with Iraq because Bush has not yet decided to use military force, a White House official said. In addition, the costs of war have to be balanced with the “potentially incalculable” costs of allowing Hussein to continue to develop weapons of mass destruction, the White House official said (Michael Dobbs, Washington Post, Dec. 1). For further information, see:
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