International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have left North Korea, Reuters reported today, and the United States is continuing diplomatic efforts to create a unified international front to isolate North Korea and pressure it into abandoning nuclear weapons efforts (see GSN, Dec. 30).

The two IAEA inspectors, one from China and the other from Lebanon, flew to Beijing after North Korean officials told them to leave Friday.  The two inspectors would not comment on their expulsion, according to Reuters.

“We have some job to do and we need to contact headquarters,” the Lebanese inspector said.

The inspectors are to present a report to the IAEA executive board Jan. 6, the agency said.  IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said the agency regretted the inspectors’ expulsion and said they were ready to return if North Korea chose to let them do so.

“We regret that they left,” Fleming said.  “But we’ve kept an open office.  We’re storing our equipment there, leaving open the eventual possibility that our inspectors could return,” she added (Paul Eckert, Reuters, Dec. 31).

The withdraw of the IAEA inspectors will make it even more difficult to monitor North Korea for signs that it might be developing nuclear weapons, Fleming said.

“We were the eyes of the world,” she said.  “Now we virtually have no possibility to monitor North Korea’s nuclear activities nor to provide any assurances to the international community that they are not producing a nuclear weapon,” Fleming added.

The lack of inspectors within North Korea will force the IAEA to become more reliant on satellite imagery, Fleming said.

“It’s a position this agency does not like to be in,” she said.  “We need to be on the ground at the facilities directly, in order to be in a position to verify a given country’s nuclear declaration,” Fleming added (George Jahn, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Dec. 31).

International Diplomacy

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has decided that North Korea’s neighbors, especially China and Russia, must take on a larger role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, officials said yesterday.  The White House approach would allow U.S. officials to maintain a focus on the situation with Iraq and delay any direct talks with North Korea, while still pursuing a diplomatic solution, the Washington Post reported.

So far, Russia and Japan have been the most aggressive in relaying tough messages from the United States to North Korea, while China and South Korea have been less supportive of placing pressure themselves on Pyongyang, according to U.S. officials.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested a meeting of diplomats from the four countries, along with the United States and North Korea, in order to elevate the informal discussions, the Post reported.  

U.S. officials have supported the idea of such a meeting, as it would allow them to maintain a policy of no direct talks with North Korea, according to the Post.  Donald Gregg, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, said yesterday that such a meeting “would be a face-saving way to sit down and talk to the North Koreans.”

China, however, has resisted the suggestion, saying that North Korea would not attend.

“The Chinese have come back and said, ‘you need to talk to them,’ which raises the question about whether they are carrying our water to Pyongyang or they are carrying Pyongyang’s water to us,” a U.S. official said (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Dec. 31).

South Korean President Kim Dae-jung has said U.S. attempts to pressure and isolate North Korea into abandoning its nuclear weapons efforts were guaranteed to fail and that his engagement policies were the only “effective” method.

“Pressuring and isolating communist countries have never been successful — Cuba is one example,” Kim said during a Cabinet meeting.  “But inducing such countries to open up through dialogue has always been successful,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Bangkok Post, Dec. 31).

South Korean President-elect Roh Moo-hyun has also been openly critical of what U.S. officials have called a ‘tailored containment’ policy, saying yesterday that the United States needs to consult with South Korea before taking any action.

“I'm skeptical about the effectiveness of the reported ‘tailored containment’ policy of the United States as a means to rein in North Korea,” Roh said.

The United States should give a high priority to South Korean views before making any decision regarding the Korean Peninsula, Roh said. 

“If the United States makes and announces a unilateral decision, and South Korea follows it, it can’t be called real cooperation between the two countries,” he said.

Roh announced yesterday that he would present a plan next month to help resolve the North Korean nuclear issue.  The plan would include proposals for a summit with and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and exchange visits by South Korean and U.S. presidential envoys, Roh said (Korea Herald, Dec. 31).

Containment

In addition to South Korean officials, diplomats and experts are skeptical of the effectiveness of U.S attempts to further isolate North Korea, saying there is little left to withhold.

“Economically, there really isn’t that much else that we can do to pressure North Korea,” said Lee Chung-min, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul.

North Korea suffers from a shortage of fuel, which keeps power plants idle and forces factories to operate at only about 30 percent capacity, said Park Suhk-sam, a expert on North Korea at South Korea’s central bank.  The energy that is produced goes primarily to Pyongyang and weapons factories, recent visitors said.

North Korea is able to obtain about $580 million annually through the export of ballistic missiles and missile technologies to countries such as Yemen, Syria, Egypt and Iran, said Kim Tae-woo, an arms control expert at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (see GSN, Dec. 16).  For any containment policy to be effective, this arms trade would need to be stopped, Kim said. 

Any attempts to economically isolate North Korea are likely to require U.N. Security Council support, Lee said.  Two of the council’s permanent members — Russia and China — are less likely to support such action, however, because of their economic ties to Pyongyang, according to the Washington Post.

Russia, which sells military equipment to North Korea, has been critical of the U.S. approach toward the nuclear issue.  “Attempts to isolate North Korea can only lead to a new escalation in tension,” Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said yesterday.

Experts have said China, which provides North Korea with food and fuel assistance, would also be less likely to support the U.S. policy for fear of destabilizing the Korean Peninsula.

“Of course, China will not support containment,” said Jin Linbuo, an Asian security expert at the China Institution of International Studies in Beijing.  “If North Korea is in turmoil, then lots of refugees will crowd into China.  Moreover, if North Korea collapses, then the Korean Peninsula would be wholly controlled by the United States and its coterie.  North Korea’s existence protects China from American military domination,” Jin said (Peter Goodman, Washington Post, Dec. 31).

Pakistan Denies Coffin Smuggling Incident

Pakistan has denied a recent Japanese newspaper report that said North Korea obtained nuclear equipment from Pakistan in 1998, smuggled in the coffin of the murdered wife of a North Korean diplomat, according to Channel NewsAsia.

“It is as ridiculous as it can get,” Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan said.  “A coffin which has a dead body in it will hardly have any room to accommodate anything else in it.  And if it has to accommodate then it is not a coffin, then it is a large container or something like that and can’t be called a coffin.  So obviously it is a totally baseless report and we reject it outrightly,” Khan added (Channel NewsAsia, Dec. 31).

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