U.S. officials and diplomats from the Middle East believe the United States is preparing for military action against Iraq, USA Today reported today (see GSN, Jan. 31).

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is expected to discuss efforts to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during visits to 10 Middle East countries in March, according to a White House official.  Also, last week Israeli and U.S. officials discussed how Israel might respond to a counterattack from Iraq in retaliation for a U.S. attack (see GSN, Feb. 8).

The U.S. military has been transferring Middle East experts to the Persian Gulf since late last year, USA Today reported.  The CIA has also reactivated a covert program to oust Hussein, according to Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Slavin/Keen, USA Today, Feb. 12).

Statements by other U.S. officials have also indicated a hard-line stance on Iraq (see GSN, Feb. 7).

“Iraq is unfinished business, and we’re going to have to do something about it at a time, place and manner of our choosing,” said Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage in a recent interview with USA Today.

No Attack Until After Sanctions Vote in May

The United States is unlikely to take military action until after May, when the U.N. Security Council is scheduled to vote on revising sanctions against Iraq.  If Iraq continues to refuse to allow U.N. arms inspectors to return, that could provide the United States with a reason to attack, according to USA Today.

Bush’s warnings against Iraq are part of a “psychological campaign” to frighten Hussein into allowing weapons inspectors to return, said Vincent Cannistraro, former CIA director of counterterrorism.

Possible Military Strategies

U.S. planners are considering several military options in Iraq, according to experts.  One possibility is a large military attack similar to the one in 1991.  The option, called “Desert Storm Lite,” could include 50,000 to 200,000 U.S. troops combined with U.S. air and logistical supports based in surrounding countries, such as Turkey and Kuwait (see GSN, Jan. 7).

Another possibility is directing U.S. air power against the main Iraqi security forces that keep Hussein in power, including three Republican Guard divisions around Baghdad.  A massive attack against the security forces would allow officers secretly opposed to Hussein to launch a coup, according to Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (see GSN, Nov. 14, 2001).

The United States could also take a more diplomatic route combined with specific military steps to revise U.N. sanctions and reduce oil smuggling that brings up to $2 million annually into Iraq.  Bombing an Iraqi oil terminal that allows Hussein to export oil through Syria is one possible military step.

The United States could also decide to try to overthrow Hussein by supporting Iraqi opposition groups, as in the campaign to overthrow the Taliban.

“Opposition forces have been fighting Saddam far longer than the Northern Alliance fought the Taliban,” said Ahmed Chalabi, head of the opposition Iraqi National Congress (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, Feb. 12).

The Bush administration has announced it would give the INC $2.4 million (Slavin/Keen, USA Today, Feb. 12).

Doubt About Opposition Groups

Some officials and analysts have expressed skepticism about the capabilities of Iraqi opposition groups.  The Iraqi military is much stronger than the Taliban, and Iraqi opposition groups lack the abilities of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, some experts said (see GSN, Feb. 8).

“The INC is worthless,” said Melvin Goodman, a former CIA analyst (see GSN, Dec. 19, 2001).  “The Kurds are split down the middle with some of them cutting deals with Saddam, and the Shiites are not well organized” (Ken Silverstein, American Prospect, Feb. 11).

The Iraqi military “remains capable of defeating more poorly armed internal opposition groups,” said CIA Director George Tenet last week (John Lumpkin, Associated Press, Feb. 8).

U.S. Allies Urge Against Attacking Iraq

Meanwhile, several U.S. allies and friends expressed concern and urged the United States not to attack Iraq (see GSN, Feb. 8).  Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday in a Wall Street Journal interview that Russia opposes any unilateral U.S. moves against Iraq (see GSN, Feb. 11).

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said in response to Putin’s comments that the Bush administration has not ruled out any options.  Working with allies, including Russia, is critical, he said, but “different coalitions will be formed among different nations for different objectives.”

Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit also urged the United States against expanding the war on terrorism to Iraq.  “We don’t want a military action against Iraq,” he said yesterday (Jordan Times, Feb. 12).

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer also urged the United States against unilateral action.  “The international coalition against terror does not provide the basis to conduct something against someone, especially not alone,” Fischer said (Islamic Republic News Agency, Feb. 12).

Arab Reaction

Several Middle East countries added their voices to a chorus of concern about impending U.S. action.  Attacking Iraq “would be a mistake, which would complicate things and divide the camp of those who belong to the consensus against terrorism,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 29, 2001).  “I do not see the reason that would call for a strike on Iraq,” he added (Jordan Times, Feb. 12).

After concluding a meeting involving 21 Arab countries, the Arab Parliamentary Union said a U.S. attack on any Arab country would be unacceptable.

“The Arab Parliamentary Union (APU) unequivocally rejects any threats of using force against any Arab country and considers this as an aggression on the entire Arab nation,” and APU statement said (Agence France-Presse, Feb. 11).

Possible Allied Support?

Meanwhile, some Iraqi neighbors appear to reluctantly accept U.S. action against Iraq, USA Today reported.  Jordanian King Abdallah II told members of the U.S. Congress recently that he could accept a U.S. confrontation with Iraq, a source said.

Saudi officials have privately said they would support a realistic plan to overthrow Hussein, according to a Western source, who added that Saudi Arabia might allow U.S. forces to use Saudi territory as a base for action against Iraq.

Turkish officials have also indicated they would support military action as long as the United States consults Turkey and does not support Iraqi Kurds’ attempts to gain an independent state, diplomats said (Slavin/Keen, USA Today, Feb. 12).

Iraqi Reaction

Iraqi Vice President Taha Yasin Ramadan yesterday renewed Iraq’s recent offer for dialogue with the United Nations without preconditions (see GSN, Feb. 6).

“We have shown our readiness for a useful and positive dialogue with the secretary general and his organization without preconditions,” he said, adding, “The two parties are free to bring up what they judge to be useful.”

Iraq could defeat any U.S. attack, Ramadan said, but he expressed skepticism that the United States is planning such action.

“America has been saying that over the past 12 years, and those who defend their sovereignty and country will defeat the aggressors, such as the arrogant Americans,” he said (Xinhua News Agency/China Daily, Feb. 11).

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