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Threat Assessment I: Al-Qaeda Could Still Strike U.S. With WMD By David Ruppe Documents discovered at al-Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan have shown that Osama bin Laden was pursuing a sophisticated biological weapons research program, Tenet said. The intelligence community also believes bin Laden was seeking to acquire or develop a nuclear device, and al-Qaeda may be pursuing a bomb for disbursing radioactive material, a “dirty bomb.” The intelligence community remains concerned al-Qaeda might try to use such capabilities in an attack, he said. “Although the Sept. 11 attacks suggest that al-Qaeda and other terrorists will continue to use conventional weapons, one of our highest concerns is their stated readiness to attempt unconventional attacks against us,” Tenet said. “Alternatively, al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups might also try to launch conventional attacks against the chemical or nuclear industrial infrastructure of the United States to cause widespread toxic or radiological damage,” he said. Terrorists could also try to attack U.S. infrastructure through computers, he said. The U.S.-led war on terrorism has “dealt severe blows” to al-Qaeda and its leadership, said Tenet, but al-Qaeda has not yet been destroyed and it and like-minded groups “remain willing and able to strike us.” “Al-Qaeda leaders still at large are working to reconstitute the organization and to resume its terrorist operations. We must eradicate these organizations by denying them their sources of financing and eliminating their ability to hijack charitable organizations for their terrorist purposes,” Tenet said. Other Proliferation Threats While Tenet’s testimony, delivered annually before the intelligence panel, covered much of the ground of a recently released CIA-prepared national intelligence assessment, it went further to offer many new conclusions on a number of other suspected weapons of mass destruction concerns around the world (see GSN, Jan. 31). Tenet expressed an intelligence community concern that a conventional war between India and Pakistan could escalate into a nuclear confrontation and said both countries are developing improved nuclear weapons, ballistic missile and cruise missile capabilities. He said they might each resume nuclear testing. Tenet warned that suspicions among Iranian hardliners that the United States “is committed to encircling and overthrowing them [are] a fear that could quickly erupt in attacks against our interests.” He also warned of the accumulation of chemical and biological capabilities in states of concern and of the possibility that significant nuclear technology transfers are going undetected by the intelligence community. With respect to nuclear weapons, Tenet cited the difficulty of monitoring and controlling technology transfers, the emergence of new suppliers to covert nuclear weapons programs, and the possibility of illicitly acquiring fissile material. “All of these can shorten timelines and increase the chances of proliferation surprise,” he said. Missile technology proliferation also has become a critical concern, he said. “On the missile side, the proliferation of ICBM and cruise missile designs and technology has raised the threat to the United States from WMD delivery systems to a critical threshold.” Bilateral Concerns Tenet reiterated the intelligence assessment’s conclusion that Chinese firms remain key suppliers of missile-related technologies to Pakistan, Iran, and several other countries, despite a November 2000 pledge not to by Beijing. Tenet also said China remains a competitor that sees the United States as an obstacle to its emerging power. China remains committed to “developing an increasingly competitive economy and building a modern military force with the ultimate objective of asserting itself as a great power in East Asia,” he said. Russian conservatives remain suspicious of U.S. intentions, he said, and opposing U.S. development of a missile defense system, Moscow “is likely to pursue a variety of countermeasures and new weapons systems to defeat a deployed U.S. missile defense.” With implications for the current U.S. policy toward North Korea, Tenet said the country continues to comply with the terms of an agreement requiring it to freeze work on its nuclear reactor program, but he added, “Pyongyang has warned that it is prepared to walk away from the agreement if it concluded that the United States was not living up to its end of the deal” (see GSN, Dec. 5, 2001). Tenet, however, placed the blame for failed U.S.-Korean negotiations on Pyongyang, rather than on the tougher demands of the Bush administration, as its critics have asserted. Leader Kim Jong-il's “reluctance to pursue constructive dialogue with the South or to undertake meaningful reforms suggests that he remains focused on maintaining internal control,” Tenet said.
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