The United States said there was some success yesterday in talks with Russia on revising U.N. sanctions against Iraq.  U.S. and Russian officials met in Geneva Wednesday and Thursday to negotiate a plan for “smart sanctions” — allowing greater access to civilian goods while tightening controls on goods with potential military uses (see GSN, Feb. 7).

“We cleared away a number of questions and are studying each other’s responses to several others,” said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State John Wolf.  “There are no substantial areas of disagreement,” he added.

U.S. and Russian delegates will meet again in mid-March for a third time since the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution in November to extend the oil-for-food program until the end of May (see GSN, Nov. 30, 2001).

Iraq opposes the plan to revise sanctions, saying it will not improve its humanitarian situation (see GSN, Jan. 14).  Meanwhile, the country has stepped up diplomatic efforts, including an offer to discuss issues with the United Nations without preconditions (see GSN, Feb. 6).

Russian officials did not provide any immediate comment after the meetings ended yesterday.

U.S. Increases Pressure on Iraq

The U.S.-Russia talks occurred amid increased U.S. pressure on Iraq.  U.S President George W. Bush last week said Iraq is part of an “axis of evil,” combined with Iran and North Korea (see GSN, Jan. 31).  Secretary of State Colin Powell said Wednesday that Iraq is working to develop nuclear weapons.  Powell said the United States would consider all possible options to deal with the Iraqi threat (Reuters/Jordan Times, Feb. 8-9).

U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.) said he supports the Bush administration’s determination to remove the threat that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein poses to the United States.

“I feel very strongly that Iraq under Saddam is a clear and present danger to the United States,” Lieberman said.  “The ‘how’ and ‘when’ is appropriate to leave to the president and the military,” he said.  “But the ‘whether’ should be beyond doubt.”

Lieberman said he does not agree, however, with Bush’s attempt to lump Iraq, Iran and North Korea together (see GSN, Feb. 4).

“The term ‘axis of evil’ is a brilliant term rhetorically, but in fact they are not an axis, in the sense of connection,” he said.  “I can imagine better relations both with Iran and North Korea, but I can’t with Iraq or Saddam.  They require different kinds of policies” (Financial Times, Feb. 8).

Assessing Iraqi WMD and Military Capability

If the United States attacks Iraq, the Iraqi arsenal of weapons of mass destruction would be a wild card, the Associated Press reported.  U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iraq has chemical and biological weapons and could use them against U.S. forces or Israel (see GSN, Jan. 31).  Iraq has greatly improved its ability to hide WMD equipment, U.S. defense officials said (see GSN, Dec. 21, 2001).

Despite the possible WMD threat, the Iraqi military is only 40 percent as large as it was before the 1991 Gulf War, when it was the world’s fourth largest military.  Its conventional equipment is mostly Cold War-era and could be in poor condition, partly due to U.N. sanctions that block many military sales to Iraq.

“They have had no significant military modernization for a decade,” said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Iraq does still have 350,000 to 400,000 soldiers, short-range ballistic missiles and modern air defenses, although U.S. fighter planes often bomb Iraq’s air defenses in no-fly zones.

Iraq “remains capable of defeating more poorly armed internal opposition groups and threatening Iraq’s neighbors,” CIA Director George Tenet said this week (see GSN, Feb. 7). 

War Against Iraq Would be Different from the Afghanistan Campaign

Given Iraqi military capabilities, the United States would not be able to overthrow Hussein using the same strategy that the United States and its allies used in Afghanistan, which relied on Afghan opposition groups and small numbers of special forces, U.S. officials said.

Iraqi rebel forces lack the strength to seriously fight the Iraqi military without U.S. ground troops, experts said.  Many experts and U.S. officials consider the Iraqi National Congress, one of the main opposition groups, unreliable.

The United States would also need allied support for a military campaign, according to Reuters.  Turkey and Saudi Arabia, two of the most important strategic allies against Iraq, might not support such a campaign under present circumstances (see GSN, Jan. 7), according to the Associated Press (John Lumpkin, Associated Press, Feb. 8).

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