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North Korea: Bush Will Refuse to Certify Compliance, Officials Say U.S. President George W. Bush will not certify that North Korea is abiding by a 1994 nuclear agreement, but he still intends to permit a $95 million shipment in fuel oil to North Korea under the pact, officials said yesterday (Peter Slevin, Washington Post, March 20). Officials said Bush plans to waive congressionally required certification, allowing the United States to send aid and continue other work under the 1994 Agreed Framework, a deal in which North Korea agreed to end its nuclear weapons program in exchange for the construction of two nuclear power reactors (see GSN, March 15). Refusing to certify North Korean compliance acknowledges the possibility that North Korea might still be developing nuclear weapons, as some critics of the agreement say (see GSN, Feb. 14). A senior U.S. official said that though Bush will refuse to certify North Korean compliance, the move does not mean that the United States believes North Korea is violating the agreement. “We’re not walking away from the agreement,” the official said. “We’re continuing to implement it and hoping for progress” (Miller/Sanger, New York Times, March 20). The Bush decision is the first time a U.S. administration will not certify North Korean compliance. The previous Clinton administration told Congress annually that North Korea was fulfilling its obligations under the agreement. Why Bush Will Not Certify The U.S. State Department has recommended against certification, a senior State official said yesterday. A staff member said Bush has not made a formal decision on the certification but has agreed with the State Department’s recommendation. Some officials believe North Korea hid nuclear material from inspectors in the 1990s, said an official involved in discussions regarding North Korean compliance. A major point of convention is North Korea’s refusal to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors access to several sites (see GSN, Jan. 23). The 1994 agreement requires IAEA inspectors to examine several sites before the two light-water reactors that the United States and other countries are building in North Korea can become operational. The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), an international organization building the reactors, has started excavation and preliminary work at the site where they are supposed to be built. The organization plans to pour foundations in August (Slevin, Washington Post). The IAEA said last summer it would need 36 to 48 months to complete full inspections in North Korea. The reactors probably will be mostly complete by May 2005, so unless inspections begin very soon, the reactors are unlikely to be brought on line as scheduled (see GSN, Dec. 5, 2001). Missile Exports The United States is also displeased with North Korean missile technology exports, although the Agreed Framework does not include any restrictions on such exports. “Exports of missile technology are increasing as fast as they [North Korea] can increase them — to whomever will buy them,” said a Bush administration official (see GSN, Feb. 21). At the end of former U.S. President Bill Clinton’s term, Clinton administration officials said they were close to reaching an agreement with North Korea on missile exports. The Bush administration, which said an agreement was not close, has continued only low-level talks with North Korea. The Bush administration has said North Korea has refused to talk with Bush (see GSN, Feb. 22), and North Korea has said Bush only shows hostility (Miller/Sanger, New York Times). Opposition to Waiver Senator Joseph Biden (D-Del.) said last week that Bush should certify North Korean compliance with the 1994 agreement unless there is sound proof North Korea is not in compliance. “We have no evidence they are in breach,” said a congressional staffer. “We share the president’s concern about their long-term intentions, but they remain in compliance with all of their central obligations under the Agreed Framework, according to what we have been told.” “As far as we can see, it has been fulfilled,” a KEDO official said. “We challenge anybody who wants to make us believe that the North Koreans didn’t stick to the bargain” (Slevin, Washington Post). Major Military Drills Meanwhile, U.S. and South Korean troops tomorrow will begin the largest military drills simulating conflict with North Korea since the Korean War. The United States says the drills are only defensive exercises, but North Korea says they are provocative. The drills come as South Korea issued warnings that conflict with North Korea is increasing in likelihood. Reasons why a crisis could occur include the end of North Korea’s moratorium on missile test launches in 2003 (see GSN, Jan. 15), North Korean refusal to allow IAEA inspections and disagreements regarding the KEDO reactors, according to Agence France-Presse. “We may face a similar crisis to the one over Pyongyang’s nuclear program in 1994,” Lim Won-Dong, an adviser to South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung, said this week. “Progress must be made on these issues within a year or there will be another crisis,” said Lim (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, March 20).
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