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Threat Assessment: Pentagon Report Details Chemical, Biological Threats By David Ruppe The report, furthermore, says the Department of Defense “has confirmed” the al-Qaeda network was pursuing a “sophisticated biological weapons research program,” and was working to acquire chemical agents and toxins (see GSN, March 26). The threat assessment was included in a mandated report to Congress, the Chemical and Biological Defense Program (CBDP) Annual Report to Congress, which outlines Pentagon efforts to defend U.S. forces against such threats. The report says North Korea, China, Russia, India, Iran, Iraq and Syria are believed to have or have had chemical or biological weapons capabilities, and some of those countries have programs banned by international treaties. It charges China (see GSN, Jan. 24) and Russia, in particular, with inaccurate statements about their capabilities (see GSN, March 20). Entities in those two countries, it says, are the “main suppliers” of biological and chemical related equipment and technology that could be used in other countries’ programs. India also has exported a “wide array of chemical products” that could be used in such programs, it says. “In the next 10 years, the threat from the proliferation of [chemical and biological] weapons will certainly increase,” it said. North Korea North Korea “is believed to possess a sufficient munitions production infrastructure to accomplish weaponization of [biological weapons] agents and it may have biological agents available for use,” says the report. The country’s chemical weapons capability, by contrast, is “mature” and has included the capability since 1989 to produce “bulk quantities of nerve, blister, choking and blood chemical agents, using its sizable chemical industry.” North Korea is believed to have a stockpile of chemical agents and chemical-filled munitions that could be deployed against the South, it says, and is believed to have “some long-range artillery deployed along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) as well as ballistic missiles” that could deliver agents against U.S. forces in the South. China Although China has “consistently claimed” it never has researched, produced, or possessed any biological weapons and would never do so, the report says China’s voluntary declarations to the Biological Weapons Convention are believed to be “inaccurate and incomplete, “and there are some reports that China may retain elements of its biological weapons program.” China is believed to have an advanced chemical weapons warfare program, the report says, that includes research and development, production and weaponizing capabilities. While China claims it possesses no chemical agent inventory, the report says, “it is believed to possess a moderate inventory of chemical agents and a wide variety of potential delivery systems. Although China has ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention, made its required declaration, and submitted declared facilities to inspections, the Pentagon “believes that Beijing has not acknowledged the full extent of its chemical weapons program.” South Asia India, the report says, has “well-qualified” scientists and numerous facilities for research and development of dangerous pathogens and “at least some of these facilities are being used to support research and development for biological warfare defense work.” India is an original signatory of the CWC, and has hosted all required CWC inspections. In June 1997, however, it first acknowledged that it had a chemical warfare production program, the report says. “While India has made a commitment to destroy its chemical weapons, its extensive and well-developed chemical industry will continue to be capable of producing a wide variety of chemical agent precursors should the government change its policy.” The report says Pakistan is believed to have the resources and capabilities to support a limited biological warfare research and development effort and has imported chemicals that could be used commercially or to make chemical agents and has delivery capabilities. While Afghanistan does not have chemical or biological weapons capabilities, the report says that al-Qaeda forces based there were “interested in obtaining these capabilities.” The Middle East and North Africa Iran is believed to be pursuing offensive biological warfare capabilities, the report says, and its effort may have evolved beyond research and development to the capability to produce small quantities of agent. Biotechnology equipment obtained from Russia and elsewhere could be used by Iran in its biological weapons program, which began during the Iran-Iraq war, the report says. Iran may have stocks left over from the war, it says. Iran claimed it terminated its chemical weapons program after the war, it says. Nevertheless, Iran “has continued its efforts” to seek production technology, training, equipment, expertise and precursor chemicals from entities in Russia and China that could be used in a more advanced program. Iran “could employ” agents it has weaponized in the past — blister, blood, choking, and probably nerve agents along with numerous delivery devices — “during a future conflict in the region,” the report says. Iraq, after the Gulf War, says it destroyed biological agents and munitions in 1991, “but it has provided insufficient credible evidence to support this claim.” “With the absence of a monitoring regime and Iraq’s growing industrial self-sufficiency, we remain concerned that Iraq may again be producing biological warfare agents,” the report says. Since the war, Iraq has rebuilt “key portions” of its chemical production infrastructure, which could be converted fairly quickly to chemical warfare production, it says. Iraq is known to have previously produced a range of chemical agents, including mustard gas, tabun, sarin, and VX, “some of which likely remain hidden.” A 1998 U.N. report suggests Iraq may have 6,000 chemical munitions hidden. Syria “is believed to be pursuing” the development of biological weapons, but is not believed to have gotten far, and may have produced “only pilot quantities of usable agent,” the report says. Syria has had a substantial chemical warfare program for many years, and “has a stockpile of” nerve agent sarin that can be delivered by aircraft or ballistic missiles, the report says. Syria is trying to develop the more toxic nerve agent VX, it says. Libya has a “rudimentary” biological warfare program, capable of producing small quantities of agent. Libya has a goal of establishing an offensive chemical weapons capability and prior to 1990 produced about 100 tons of mustard and other agents. Russia Russia claims to have ended its program in 1992, “nevertheless, serious concerns remain about Russia’s biological warfare activities and the status of some elements of offensive biological warfare program inherited” from the former Soviet Union (see GSN, April 17). Some key components of the program remain largely intact, the report says, and work “outside the scope of legitimate biological defense may be occurring now at selected facilities, and the United States continues to receive unconfirmed reports of some ongoing offensive biological warfare activities,” according to the report Russia has acknowledged having the world’s largest stockpile of chemical warfare agents, about 40,000 metric tons, including blister, choking, and nerve agents and numerous means of deploying them. The Defense Department believes that Russian officials “probably have not divulged the full extent of their chemical agent and weapon inventory” and scientists familiar with the program have publicized information on a new generation of agents, sometimes called “Novichoks,” designed to defeat Western detection and protection measures. It is unlikely Russia will completely destroy its stocks under the terms of the CWC by 2012, “because of serious technical, ecological, financial, and political problems,” the report says. Terrorism Several of the 30 groups listed as foreign terrorist organizations by the State Department have expressed interest in chemical or biological weapons and al-Qaeda was actively attempting to acquire chemical agents, and produce biological agents. The report says, “the relative ease of producing some chemical or biological agents has increased concern that their use may become more attractive” to terror groups. Other Nations The report’s list of countries does not contain the complete U.S. assessment of nations’ chemical and biological capabilities. Undersecretary of State John Bolton late last year charged Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya and Syria with pursuing biological weapons and said the United States believes several other countries also have programs without naming them (see GSN, Nov. 19, 2001). One country independent experts widely believe has chemical and biological weapons capabilities, and possibly actual stocks, is Israel. The Monterey Institute for International Studies estimates Israel’s chemical weapons program as “probable” and production of biological agents “possible.” A 1998 State Department report to Congress said Egypt had developed biological agents in the past and that “there is no evidence to indicate that Egypt has eliminated this capability and it remains likely that the Egyptian capability to conduct BW continues to exist.”
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