A senior U.S. diplomat said recently that the United States might offer economic assurances to persuade Russia to support a military strike against Iraq, the Los Angeles Times reported today.

U.S. President George W. Bush plans to discuss policies on Iraq with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a four-day summit starting tomorrow, according to the Times (see GSN, April 30).  Iraq will be on the agenda, but the presidents do not necessarily plan to discuss military action, U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said Monday.

“Since the president hasn’t made any decisions on what to do about the status quo in Iraq — just that the status quo is unacceptable — I think he will want to consult with Putin on exactly that point,” Rice said.

The U.S. diplomat, however, said the Bush administration is willing to assure Russia that a military strike against Iraq would not harm the Russia’s economic interests.  The official said that the United States might prefer a new Iraqi regime that would honor Iraq’s $8 billion debt to Russia and continue oil contracts with Russian companies, according to the Los Angeles Times.

“Those are things we are prepared to talk about, shall we say, in a positive spirit, if it helps us get to the common goal of denying [Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein the ability to develop weapons of mass destruction,” the diplomat said.

Others, however, questioned U.S. willingness and ability to guarantee that a post-Hussein regime would pay Iraq’s debts.  Even if the United States has some control over a new regime, there is no way to be sure that it could guarantee the continuance of Russia’s oil activities, said Andrei Ryabov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

The United States would be more likely to promise assistance by persuading Western holders of Russian debt to ease their terms, said John Tedstrom, a former National Security Council aide (see GSN, May 16).  Tedstrom predicted that Bush would ask for an agreement in principle to share intelligence with Russia and to secure U.S. rights to fly over Russian territory during an Iraqi conflict.

Is Russia Willing?

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said yesterday that Russia continues to oppose any U.S. military action against Iraq.  The U.S. diplomat, however, said warming Russian-U.S. relations might lead Russia away from historical support for Iraq.

“I think the Russians, if Saddam blows his last chance, are prepared to say, ‘We tried, but there is nothing more we can do,’” the official said (Daniszewski/Richter, Los Angeles Times, May 22).

U.N. and Iraqi Officials to Meet in July

Meanwhile, U.N. and Iraqi officials will begin a third round of talks concerning returning U.N. weapons inspectors to Iraq and other issues in Vienna in early July, U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard said yesterday (see GSN, May 6).  Earlier meetings had been held in New York (Reuters/New York Times, May 21).

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