Mass vaccinating people younger than 30 against smallpox could save more lives than the current U.S. plan to conduct limited vaccinations in the event of an outbreak, according to two reports to be released today (see GSN, April 19).

“There are risks with the vaccine, but there are even greater risks with smallpox,” according to Matthew Davis of the University of Michigan, expected to present one of the studies to the Pediatric Academic Societies meeting in Baltimore this week.

Davis determined that if half of U.S. residents younger than 30 were vaccinated against smallpox — about 58 million people — the project would cost $286 million.  A project to vaccinate 75 percent of U.S. residents younger than 30 would cost $430 million, Davis said.  Most people over the age of 30 still have some immunity to smallpox because of previous vaccination programs, according to Newsday.

A separate study conducted by Alex Kemper of the University of Michigan indicated that if 82.5 million people younger than 30 were vaccinated against smallpox, up to 190 could die of vaccine-related complications.  Currently, the U.S. smallpox vaccine causes one death out of every 1 million people inoculated.  A smallpox infection, however, is fatal in one out of three cases, according to Newsday.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Committee on Immunization Practices has proposed a “ring vaccination” strategy in the event of a smallpox outbreak, such as one launched as a biological weapons attack.  The ring vaccination strategy calls only for emergency workers who would respond to an outbreak to be vaccinated, according to Newsday. 

“I do think the government has already examined the mass vaccination option and has at this point decided not to pursue it,” Davis said.  “We’re hoping that with our work, the government will reconsider the mass vaccination option” (Delthia Ricks, Newsday, May 7).

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