Tensions in South Asia decreased further yesterday as India said it might withdraw some forces from its border with Pakistan and U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld finished talks with Indian and Pakistani leaders, according to reports (see GSN, June 12).

Diplomats agreed that the crisis between the two rivals was almost over following Rumsfeld’s talks with Indian leaders, the Pakistani newspaper Dawn reported (Jawed Naqvi, Dawn, June 13).  Rumsfeld left Pakistan yesterday after visiting both countries (CNN, June 14).

India is considering moving some of its fighter aircraft and ground troops back from the border with Pakistan within the next few weeks if leaders believe Pakistan remains serious about ending support for Islamic militants who cross into India’s side of the disputed Kashmir territory, a senior Indian official said yesterday.

India, however, does not plan to relax its military forces in Kashmir until state elections are completed in the fall, the official said.

India also understands that Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who has promised to crack down on militants based in Pakistan’s part of Kashmir, cannot control all militants.  Therefore, India would not necessarily attack Pakistan in response to a militant attack against Indian targets, the official said.

“If we see Pakistan is making sincere attempts at implementing what it has committed, if that is happening, then if there is a violent incident in Jammu and Kashmir, we won’t have a knee-jerk reaction to that,” the official said (Lancaster/Vick, Washington Post, June 14).

Meanwhile, Pakistan pulled back its warships from high alert in the Arabian Sea in response to a similar Indian move (see GSN, June 11; Agence France-Presse/Straits Times, June 14).

Sensors

Rumsfeld said he discussed possibly installing electronic ground sensors along the Line of Control that divides Kashmir during meetings with Indian leaders Wednesday.  The United States has shown equipment to both Indian and Pakistani officials, including infrared cameras and sophisticated radar, according to Dawn.  Some reports said the United States offered a test batch of sensors to India when Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee visited the United States in November, according to Dawn (see GSN, Nov. 26, 2001).

Such equipment would allow authorities to detect the number of men moving in an area, said Brian Cloughley, a South Asia defense specialist.  It would, however, have only limited usefulness without cooperation between Indian and Pakistani forces, he added (Dawn, June 13).  Indian military experts said yesterday that the sensors would not work due to the rugged terrain of the Kashmir region.

“The current U.S. surveillance technology — whether it be ground sensors, satellite imagery or anything else — has not been used in mountainous terrain, especially at heights like we have in the Himalayas,” said C.U. Bhaskar of the New Delhi-based Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses (Straits Times, June 14).

U.S. and British Troops

Rumsfeld said Wednesday that during meetings with Indian leaders he discussed the possibility that U.S. troops could monitor the Line of Control, but that “we came to no conclusions” (Defense Department transcript, June 12).

Earlier news reports had indicated that U.S. and British troops might monitor infiltration across the line and British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Monday that the United Kingdom would consider sending military advisers if one of the countries requested such assistance, but he said no request had been made.

Neither the United States nor the United Kingdom possesses enough helicopters to monitor the 740-kilometer Line of Control, Dawn reported (Dawn, June 13).  India has rejected the possibility of foreign monitors in Kashmir.

“Our troops are well capable of dealing with the situation themselves, and there is absolutely no possibility of foreign troops operating in any territory in India,” Indian Junior Foreign Minister Omar Abdullah said yesterday (Agence France-Presse/Straits Times, June 13).

Al-Qaeda in Kashmir? Rumsfeld Wavers

During his visit to India and Pakistan this week, Rumsfeld had stated that evidence indicated that al-Qaeda agents were operating in the Kashmir area, but then he called that information “speculative,” according to reports.

“I have seen evidence, well let me rephrase it — I have seen indications that there in fact are al-Qaeda operating in the area that we're talking about near the Line of Control.  I do not have hard evidence of precisely how many or who or where,” Rumsfeld said Wednesday following meetings with Indian officials (Defense Department transcript).

During a joint press conference with Pakistani Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar yesterday, however, Rumsfeld said the evidence is not certain.

“The facts are that I do not have the evidence, and the U.S. does not have evidence of al-Qaeda in Kashmir.  We do have a good deal of scraps of intelligence that come in.  People saying that they believe al-Qaeda are in Kashmir or in various locations.  It tends to be speculative, it is not actionable, it is not verifiable,” he said (Press Trust of India/Hindu, June 14).

India has said al-Qaeda members have regrouped in Kashmir after the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan forced them to move, according to CNN (see GSN, May 31).

Pakistan rejected any statements that al-Qaeda agents are operating in Kashmir.  “It’s absolutely nonsense,” Pakistani spokesman Gen. Rashid Qureshi said.

“The Indian allegation aims to undermine the indigenous movement inside Indian-occupied Kashmir,” Qureshi said, adding, “There is no such information or evidence at all to support the allegation” (CNN, June 13).

For further information, see:

Stimson Center Background on Kashmir

Pakistani Government

Indian Government

U.N. Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP)

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