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Russia: Typhoon Submarine Scrapping Continues By David Ruppe Armed with 20 ballistic missiles with 10 warheads each, Typhoon submarines — Russia calls them Akulas — are the world’s largest, and they were one of the most feared submarines during the Cold War. The subject of Tom Clancy’s novel The Hunt for Red October, for example, was based on the Typhoon. Through the U.S.-funded Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program, begun in the early 1990s, officials have been carrying out the destruction at the Sevmash shipyard in the Northern Fleet base of Severodvinsk (see GSN, July 11). At least 20 strategic missile submarines have been destroyed so far through CTR, including one Russian Delta IV submarine, the most modern of the Russian fleet. Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) told reporters at a briefing May 17 that he hoped all six Typhoons would eventually be scrapped through the program. Contracts for dismantlement and destruction, however, are signed one submarine at a time, and work on the first Typhoon is believed to be continuing. Russian officials previously have said that four or five Typhoons would be destroyed. Scrapping all six would eliminate the platforms for delivering 1,200 Russian nuclear warheads. From the Russian point of view, Typhoon elimination is motivated largely by cost, experts said. “The Typhoons, being very large, are very expensive to maintain,” said naval expert Norman Polmar. “The larger the ship, generally the more expensive they are,” he said. “It’s a very sophisticated submarine. They were certainly the most innovative ballistic missile submarines built during the nuclear era.” Lugar visited Sevmash last August and witnessed dismantlement work on the first Typhoon. The destruction is a multi-step process involving defueling, cutting out missile launch tubes for verification, disposing of the nuclear reactor and then cutting up the hull. Scarce Resources, Declining Forces The elimination of the Typhoons, first deployed in the early 1980s, reflects a declining trend in Russian strategic submarine force capabilities since the 1980s, attributed in part to scarce funding and facilitated by the CTR program (see GSN, July 9). Three Typhoons were decommissioned in the mid-1990s, according to analyst Igor Kudrik of the Norwegian environmental organization Bellona, which monitors Russian nuclear weapons activities. The remaining boats in service have seen little or no activity in recent years, according to Kudrik. A single Typhoon was overhauled and modernized over the last 12 years, according to Russian wire service reports. That boat, the Dmitry Donskoy, was launched last month, the reports said (see GSN, June 28). Russia also has a new fourth-generation submarine program underway, with the first keel laid in November 1996 and service scheduled to begin as soon as 2003-2004. Skeptics say service could be delayed until 2010 or beyond because of lack of funding. Along with the reportedly refurbished submarine, Russia may only have about a dozen strategic nuclear submarines left — six Delta IIIs and six Delta IVs — said Stan Norris, an analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington. “The future does not look bright” for Russia’s strategic submarine force, Norris said, estimating the future force “may not be larger than 10,” down from an estimated Cold War peak of about 62 (see GSN, May 6). The active Delta submarines also rarely go out to sea, said Norris. “Not more than one or two here go on patrol at any time. The whole tempo has been slashed,” he said. According to the U.S. Navy, there were 31 Russian ballistic missile submarine patrols in 1991. In 2001, there was only one, Norris said, but “they do have the capability to launch missiles from dockside.” Reductions Across Russia’s Strategic Force The Bush administration, reflecting its Nuclear Posture Review (see GSN, Jan. 10), has said it is planning to reduce the U.S. strategic submarine force from 18 to 14, reconfiguring four submarines for nonstrategic missions (see GSN, April 8). Norris said the United States has traditionally relied more upon submarines in its strategic nuclear triad than has Russia. While maybe 25 percent of Russia’s warheads have been on submarines, about half of U.S. warheads were, he said, with the remainder in each case on ICBMs and bombers. Polmar said the United States had a peak of 41 strategic submarines in operation during the Cold War. Russia’s other strategic nuclear forces have been shrinking and are expected to continue that trend. As of last August, the CTR program helped pay for the destruction of at least 428 ballistic missiles, 390 ballistic missile launchers, 87 bombers, 483 long-range nuclear air-launched cruise missiles, 352 submarine missile launchers and 225 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, as well as strategic missile submarines. Altogether, approximately 5,600 warheads that were once on strategic systems aimed at the United States have been deactivated through the program. The U.S. intelligence community predicted earlier this year that without significant new funding, warhead numbers would drop to below 2,000 warheads by 2015 (see GSN, Jan. 10). While Russia has been reducing its nuclear launchers, Russian officials have said they will match the United States and not destroy warheads taken out of active service. [EDITOR'S NOTE: Senator Lugar is a board member of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by National Journal Group, Inc.] For further information, see: U.S. Defense Department CTR Site Moscow Treaty Text (U.S. State Department) U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Arms Reduction Treaty
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