The International Atomic Energy Agency today gave North Korea one more chance to reverse its decision to bar international inspectors from the Yongbyon nuclear facility and to threaten to restart a nuclear reactor there (see GSN, Jan. 3).

North Korea must comply within weeks or the IAEA will be forced to refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, according to agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei.

“All cases of noncompliance must be consistently addressed in a uniform fashion, namely zero-tolerance,” ElBaradei said. He held out hope, however, that a diplomatic solution can be achieved.

Meeting in a special session today, the agency’s Board of Governors approved a resolution outlining North Korea’s nuclear obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the 1994 Agreed Framework.

“Unless the [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] takes all necessary steps to allow the agency to implement all the required safeguards measures, the DPRK will be in further noncompliance with its safeguards agreement,” the resolution says.

Analysts said the decision to give North Korea one more chance to turn back reflects the belief at the United Nations as well as in Washington that an armed confrontation with North Korea must be avoided at all costs.  The last time the IAEA threatened to report North Korean nuclear violations to the U.N. Security Council, in 1993, Pyongyang said such a move would be considered a declaration of war.

The Yongbyon reactors had been mothballed under a 1994 deal with the U.S. in which North Korea agreed to end its weapons program in exchange for fuel oil supplies and two nuclear reactors that would be more difficult to use for the development of nuclear weapons.

Washington halted the oil shipments in December after saying Pyongyang had admitted to a covert nuclear program.

The IAEA resolution calls for the reestablishment of surveillance measures at North Korea’s nuclear facilities and the “full implementation of all the required safeguards measures, including the return of IAEA inspectors.”

The IAEA initiative was welcomed in Washington, where President George W. Bush has repeatedly called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.  Increased administration focus on Iraq is a primary reason for Washington’s intent to defuse the confrontation through diplomatic channels.  But reclusive North Korea’s suspected possession of nuclear weapons and a fearsome military facing off against its democratic neighbor South Korea is cause enough to approach with caution (Bryan Bender, Global Security Newswire, Jan. 6).

South Korea Continues Diplomatic Push

South Korea, meanwhile, is expected to present a compromise solution to the nuclear dispute during talks with Japan and the United States today in Washington, AP reported.

A potential solution is for North Korea to give up its nuclear program in exchange for resumption in fuel oil shipments from the United States, although verifying North Korean nuclear inactivity would probably be contentious, AP reported.

Talks between South Korea and the United States are slated to continue, with South Korean national security adviser Yim Sung-joon visiting Washington this week and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly heading to Seoul.  Yim will also visit Japan to discuss his consultations with U.S. officials, AP reported (Paul Shin, Associated Press, Jan. 6).

The compromise will ask U.S. President George W. Bush to write a letter guaranteeing that the United States will not attack North Korea, the New York Times reported Sunday.  In return, Seoul will ask Pyongyang to restore international controls on its nuclear program, the Times reported (James Brooke, New York Times, Jan. 5).

Washington, however, has said it will not negotiate with North Korea until that country’s leadership abandons efforts to develop nuclear weapons.  The United States alleges that North Korea already abandoned a similar agreement — the 1994 Agreed Framework that gave Pyongyang the promise of two light-water nuclear reactors and free fuel oil in exchange for closing a plant that could generate weapon-grade plutonium — the Times reported.

“We have no intention to sit down and bargain again, to pay for this horse again,” said State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher.

“We are not entering into a negotiation,” he said, “in order to get them to commit to something that they’ve already committed to,” he added (Brooke/Rosenthal, New York Times, Jan. 4).

White House officials said, however, that Bush would not reject the new proposal automatically.  Bush has said that the United States will not attack North Korea and an agreement to confirm that might be acceptable.

“The new guys in South Korea want to introduce some new ideas, and that’s not unhealthy,” said a White House official.  He agreed with the State Department that old negotiations with Pyongyang should not be redone.

“We can’t get caught making concessions to get them to meet the commitments they’ve already made,” he said.

U.S. Food Aid Slow to Arrive

Although U.S. officials have said that humanitarian food shipments to North Korea would not be impeded by the nuclear dispute, those shipments have been suspended, the Times reported today.

The suspension of food aid by the United States and Japan and the curtailment of shipments from South Korea have resulted in a situation in which the U.N. World Food Program will miss its distribution goals “by a wide margin,” according to the program.

“We’re very concerned about it,” said a program official.  “We understand that there are political considerations.  But this is a population that is suffering, with women and children the most vulnerable,” he added.

White House officials said they are not withholding the food for political reasons, but that the shipments have stopped because of lapses in monitoring where the food is sent.

“Our intention is to go forward, but we do need to solve these monitoring problems first,” said a Bush administration official.

World Food Program officials, however, said they believe that food is reaching civilians and is not being redirected to feed North Korea’s military.

“We have relatively good confidence that the food is reaching the people who need it,” said a program official (Steven Weisman, New York Times, Jan. 6).

Official Says Russia Will Help Defuse Crisis

Russia agreed to “make joint efforts to ease the crisis,” after talks between South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Hang-kyung and his Russian counterpart, Alexander Losyukov, AP reported.

Russian officials will attempt to convince the parties to meet for talks but did not promise to mediate them.

“The slide to unacceptable actions must be stopped,” Losyukov said.  “Obviously, our contacts with North Korean colleagues will be intensified,” he added (Hans Greimel, Associated Press/Washington Times, Jan. 6).

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