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U.S. Response: CIA Issues Latest Global WMD Threat Assessment By David Ruppe The semiannual report said North Korea had been seeking centrifuge-related materials in large quantities to support a uranium enrichment program. The country also had obtained equipment suitable for use in uranium feed and withdrawal systems, the report says. “During this time frame, Pyongyang has continued attempts to procure technology worldwide that could have applications in its nuclear program,” the report says. Reciting previous intelligence estimates, the report says North Korea probably has produced enough plutonium for at least one, and possibly two nuclear weapons and that spent fuel rods stored in accordance with the 1994 Agreed Framework contain enough plutonium for several more weapons. Suppliers Going beyond North Korea’s nuclear aspirations, the report lists Russia, then North Korea, China, and unspecified Western countries as key global WMD and missile proliferators. “Western countries are an important source for the proliferation of WMD-related information and training,” and access to technology and training there may have enabled terrorist organizations to develop weapons of mass destruction more quickly, the report says. India, Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan, traditional recipients of WMD technology, are also growing as suppliers, the report says. Differing from previous such reports, the agency said unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles present “a serious and growing threat” for delivering weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Aug. 19, 2002). Concerns About al-Qaeda The report offers new commentary on suspected unconventional threats posed by terrorist groups. It says the stated readiness of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups to attempt unconventional attacks is “one of our highest concerns,” noting a statement by Osama bin Laden that such attacks were a “religious duty,” and testimony of a bin Laden associate that the group had chemical and biological weapons. “Documents and equipment recovered from al-Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan show that bin Laden has a more sophisticated biological weapons research program than previously discovered,” it says. The report says al-Qaeda had ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons and was “receptive to” any assistance it could find to acquire or develop them. It says radiological terrorism is considered “a highly credible threat,” and that terrorists might try to attack chemical or nuclear infrastructure in the United States. Developments in Iraqi Missile Development The agency reports suggests that Iraq is making advances in its solid-propellant ballistic missile program, despite being greatly constrained by U.N. prohibitions. It says Iraq has two new solid-propellant “mixing” buildings at a plant that “appear especially suited to house large, U.N.-prohibited mixers of the type acquired” for a previous, banned program. “In fact, we can find no logical explanation for the size and configuration of these mixing buildings other than an Iraqi intention to develop longer-range, prohibited missiles (that is, to mix solid propellant exclusively geared for such missiles),” the report says. It says also Iraq has begun reconstructing a facility that was previously used to “cast and cure” parts for proscribed missile motors. The CIA said, as it had previously, that international sanctions on Iraq were dampening the country’s progress on missile development. “If economic sanctions against Iraq were lifted, Baghdad probably would increase its attempts to acquire missile-related items from foreign sources, regardless of any future U.N. monitoring and continuing restrictions on long-range ballistic missile programs. With substantial foreign assistance and an accommodating political environment, Baghdad could flight-test an MRBM [medium-range ballistic missile] by mid-decade,” according to the report. The report says Iraq “continued to pursue” a biological weapons program. Iranian Programs The report says Iran was “vigorously” pursuing programs to indigenously produce chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. To that end, Iran had obtained foreign assistance enabling it to produce some or all of such weapons, focusing its efforts on getting help from Russia, China, North Korea and Europe. The report says the United States is “convinced” Iran is violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and pursuing nuclear weapons, and that efforts to bolster its domestic nuclear fuel cycle capabilities can also support fissile material production for a program (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2002). Russia, which has been supplying a large part of that assistance, has continued to deny it is supporting an illicit program. The report says the International Atomic Energy Agency should be allowed to inspect a production site for zirconium fuel cladding and that site, produced through Chinese assistance, should be declared to the agency. Also during the last half of 2001, Iran sought Chinese and Russian assistance that could further efforts to develop an indigenous capability to produce nerve agents, it said. Other Issues The report says, as previous versions have, that North Korea was gaining raw materials and components for ballistic missile programs from “various foreign sources, especially through North Korean firms based in China.” With respect to Libya, the report says the country and others in 2001 “reportedly” used their secret services to try to obtain technical information on the WMD development, including nuclear weapons. The report provides a small bit of new commentary on Pakistan’s nuclear program. During the reporting period, Pakistan “continued to acquire nuclear-related equipment, some of it dual-use, and materials from various sources — principally in Western Europe. If Pakistan chooses to develop more advanced nuclear weapons, seeking such goods will remain important,” it said.
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