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IAEA Board Passes Iran Resolution; No Security Council Referral By Joe Fiorill WASHINGTON — The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s governing board today responded to 18 years of covert Iranian nuclear activity by warning the country that it could pay a steep price if its recent nuclear admissions are found to be incomplete (see GSN, Nov. 25). Adopting by consensus a British-French-German resolution, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-member Board of Governors turned back a U.S. bid to send the Iran affair to the U.N. Security Council but implied such a move could come quickly if any past Iranian missteps emerge that Tehran has not acknowledged as of now. The resolution was welcomed on all sides, including by Iran, which said the text constitutes the defeat of U.S. efforts to advance Israeli interests. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today is a “good day for peace, multilateralism and diplomacy.” ElBaradei stressed that although the board will “continue to make every effort to use verification and diplomacy to resolve questions about Iran’s nuclear program,” it has also “made it clear that any serious failures in the future by Iran to comply with its obligations will be met with an appropriately serious response.” The resolution is the result of more than a week of negotiations that began with the European sponsors’ introduction of a resolution that Washington deemed far too weak. In the end, the key players split the difference between the U.S. effort to send the case immediately to New York — possibly resulting in punitive measures against Iran — and an initial European text that contained no “trigger” language to indicate what the board would do if faced with new findings of illicit Iranian activities. Although the board did not punish Iran for missteps already acknowledged, the resolution provides for consequences in the event Iran’s claim that it has now come completely clean is found to be untrue. The panel said it “considers it essential that the declarations that have now been made by Iran amount to the correct, complete and final picture of Iran’s past and present nuclear program, to be verified by the agency,” adding that “any further serious Iranian failures [that] come to light” will trigger an immediate board meeting to consider options including a Security Council referral and a formal finding of “noncompliance.” ElBaradei counseled patience in reacting to the provision. “We naturally still have much verification work to do,” he said, “before we can provide the assurances expected by the international community, specifically that all nuclear activities in Iran are fully declared and are exclusively for peaceful purposes.” U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that the resolution means “action will be forthcoming” if further concealed activity becomes known. He pronounced the United States “very satisfied” with the text, which White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan termed “appropriate.” A number of recent developments colored the board’s negotiations: an Oct. 21 Iranian promise to the British, French and German foreign ministers to suspend uranium enrichment and to sign a protocol stipulating more intrusive IAEA monitoring (see GSN, Oct. 21); a report to the board Nov. 10 by ElBaradei detailing new Iranian admissions of nearly two decades of secret activities, including small-scale production of plutonium and low-enriched uranium (see GSN, Nov. 11); and Iran’s maneuvers over the past week at the IAEA, which included an implicit threat to back out of signing the protocol if the resolution was not to Tehran’s liking (see GSN, Nov. 20). Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said today in Tehran that the resolution proves Iran’s nuclear programs are peaceful and that Iran has embraced a policy of transparency, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency. “The past few days’ developments,” he said of the board’s talks, “can be summarized as the defeat of the unilateral efforts made on the basis of safeguarding Israel’s interests, as well as the success of multilateral cooperation in [the] political field based on meaningful dialogue and shared wisdom.” Top Analyst Questions U.S. MotivationInstitute for Science and International Security President David Albright today praised the board for providing a “framework for Iran … to resolve the outstanding questions” by requiring further board action before the Security Council could become involved. By stopping short of explicitly promising a Security Council referral in case of new revelations, Albright said, the board created a “release valve if Iran comes forth voluntarily.” “I think the U.S. may get outvoted again” in case of new voluntary Iranian revelations, he said ― but not necessarily if the IAEA finds activity Iran has continued to conceal. The “one problem” with the resolution, said Albright, is that it could “work to encourage Iran not to answer those questions, because they may feel that if they add to their declaration, they will be punished.” Albright opposed the U.S. view that Iran’s secret uranium and plutonium work constitutes proof of Tehran’s intention to develop nuclear weapons. “That isn’t evidence. Countries do the damnedest things,” he said. Only the discovery of “facilities that were involved in making or testing nuclear weapons components” would constitute proof of a weapon program, according to Albright, since Iran’s past covert activities could reflect several other scenarios, including an aborted nuclear weapon program. Assessing the U.S. strategy of pursuing Security Council sanctions, Albright said Washington is seeking to destabilize the Iranian government. “I don’t think everybody in the U.S. is, but I think that there are some. … In a sense, they don’t have a policy. Is the U.S. policy regime change, or is it to woo Iran from nuclear weapons?” he said.
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