Libyan Nuclear Weapons Program in “Very Initial Stages,” ElBaradei Says

Libya’s nuclear weapons program was not in an advanced state when Libya recently announced its intention to abandon the program, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today (see GSN, Nov. 13).

ElBaradei and a team of IAEA experts visited four previously secret nuclear sites in and near Tripoli yesterday, the Associated Press reported. ElBaradei said the visits indicated that Libya’s nuclear weapons program had made little progress when Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi decided to open it to international inspectors. 

“What we have seen is a program in the very initial stages of development,” ElBaradei said. “We haven’t seen any industrial-scale facility to produce highly enriched uranium; we haven’t seen any enriched uranium,” he added.

The equipment and technology found at the Libyan nuclear sites has been dismantled and packed and appears to have come from a number of countries, ElBaradei said. He said that it would be easy to determine where Libya’s nuclear-related equipment had originated because “they were of a familiar design.”

ElBaradei also said that a “sophisticated network” had helped Libya obtain its nuclear-related technology — a network made up of “a number of different people in a number of different places, a network which you can call a cartel but not necessarily with the knowledge of a particular country or countries.”

“It has been across many countries in the world,” he said (Maggie Michael, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Dec. 29).

A Western diplomat in Tripoli said that Iran and Pakistan are among the possible sources for Libyan nuclear technology (Daniel Williams, Washington Post, Dec. 28).

A team of about 10 nuclear inspectors is set to remain in Libya to conduct additional and more intensive inspections over the next few weeks, an aide to ElBaradei said (Andrea Koppel, CNN.com, Dec. 28).

ElBaradei also said today that it was his “gut feeling” that Libya was about three to seven years away from producing a nuclear weapon (Andrea Koppel, CNN.com, Dec. 29).

The IAEA visits to Libyan nuclear sites over the weekend followed a Dec. 19 announcement by U.S. President George W. Bush that Qadhafi had agreed to “disclose and dismantle” all WMD programs and to “immediately and unconditionally” allow international inspectors to visit Libya.

During a White House press conference, Bush said that talks on Libya’s disarmament began about nine months ago, when Qadhafi contacted the United States and the United Kingdom “through personal envoys.” Libyan officials have provided the United States and the United Kingdom with documentation on the full scope of Libya’s WMD and missile programs, and U.S. and British experts have met with Libyan officials to learn additional information, Bush said.

“With today’s announcement by its leader, Libya has begun the process of rejoining the community of nations. And Col. Qadhafi knows the way forward.  Libya should carry out the commitments announced today,” Bush said (White House release, Dec. 19).

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan supports Libya’s decision to abide by its international nonproliferation obligations, a U.N. spokesman said last week.

Annan “sees this as a positive step towards the strengthening of global efforts to prevent the spread and use of those weapons,” the spokesman said (U.N. release, Dec. 20).

During a separate Dec. 19 press conference, a senior Bush administration official outlined the information Libya provided on its WMD efforts, such as an admission of nuclear fuel cycle activities intended to support a nuclear weapons program. Libya also revealed a “significant quantity” of mustard agent produced more than a decade ago at a facility near the town of Rabta, along with chemical munitions and the equipment needed to establish a second chemical weapons production facility, the official said.

With regard to biological weapons, Libya admitted its previous intentions to acquire the equipment needed to produce such weapons, the senior Bush administration official said. During two visits — one conducted in October and one held this month — U.S. and British experts were taken to “a number” of medical and agricultural research centers that had the potential to be used in biological weapons research, the official said.

The senior Bush administration official also said that Libya had admitted to cooperating with North Korea to develop extended-range Scud ballistic missiles. U.S. experts were given “substantial access” to Libya’s Scud-B missile arsenal, as well as to a number of locations where missile-related research is conducted, the official said. Libya has also agreed to destroy all of its missiles capable of traveling more than 300 kilometers while carrying payloads greater than 500 kilograms, and has agreed to no longer develop or deploy missiles in violation of those limits, the senior Bush administration official said.

During the White House press conference, the senior Bush administration official said that there were few surprises in regard to Libya’s declarations of its chemical weapons capabilities, but added that there was a “much further advanced” nuclear program than previously believed. 

The official also sought to explain why Libya sought to develop weapons of mass destruction.

“I think [it was] a perverse sense that it would bring them greater security and greater prestige. And it brought them neither.  And I think the message is very clear from what they’ve done today that other states should not see WMD as a path to security or prestige,” the senior Bush administration official said (U.S. State Department release, Dec. 19).

While White House officials said that Operation Iraqi Freedom had influenced Libya’s decision to dismantle its WMD programs, British officials also praised the role of their country’s decision in 1999 to re-establish diplomatic ties with Tripoli, according to the Washington Post. Another influence was that Libya had learned that U.S. and British intelligence services had developed verifiable knowledge of Libyan WMD materials, U.S. officials said.

Officials also said that the U.S. negotiating stance had been improved by a previously undisclosed interdiction conducted through the Proliferation Security Initiative — a U.S.-led effort to interdict suspected shipments of WMD-related cargo, according to the Post (see GSN, Dec. 18). They provided no further details, however, on the interdiction (Slevin/Frankel, Washington Post, Dec. 20).

In an interview last week with CNN, Qadhafi said that while Libya had WMD programs, it did not possess actual weapons of mass destruction.

“We have not these weapons,” he said, adding that Libya’s programs “would have been for peaceful purposes — but nevertheless we decided to get rid of them completely.”

Qadhafi denied that his decision to dismantle Libya’s WMD programs had been influenced by the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

“So many countries have a nuclear program and actually some of them have weapons of mass destruction and such countries actually dismantle these programs in a transparent way, in a legal way,” he said.

Qadhafi also called on other nations to follow his example. “I believe they should follow the steps of Libya or take an example from Libya, so that they prevent any tragedy from being inflicted upon their own people,” he said.

By doing so, Qadhafi said, other countries “would tighten the noose around the Israelis so that they would expose their programs and their weapons of mass destruction” (CNN.com, Dec. 23).

Bush suggested during his Dec. 19 press conference that the United States might drop its sanctions against Libya if Qadhafi follows through on his pledge to end his WMD efforts. 

“As the Libyan government takes these essential steps and demonstrates its seriousness, its good faith will be returned. Libya can regain a secure and respected place among the nations, and over time, achieve far better relations with the United States,” Bush said (White House release, Dec. 19).

When asked during his CNN interview if the agreement was the start of improved U.S.-Libyan relations, Qadhafi replied, “I do hope so” (CNN.com, Dec. 23).

Meanwhile, Libya announced Saturday that it would also sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would give the agency the authority to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Libyan nuclear activities, according to Reuters.

“Libya will cooperate and deal with the agency (the IAEA) with complete transparency ... and Libya will sign the Additional Protocol,” said Libyan Foreign Minister Mohamed Abderrhmane Chalgam.

“This is a clear message to everybody, especially the Israelis, they must start dismantling their weapons of mass destruction,” he added (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Dec. 27).

ElBaradei said today that Libya had “committed … to act as if the protocol was in force” (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Dec. 29).

In addition, Libya has agreed to adhere to the Chemical Weapons Convention “without delay,” the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced last week.

The OPCW, which oversees the treaty, now plans to work with Libyan officials to prepare for Libya’s accession to the convention and the subsequent inspections and monitoring of Libyan chemical sites, the organization said.

“Libya’s adherence to the convention will significantly enhance the international community’s efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It will also extend further the reach of the global ban on chemical weapons in the Middle East, a region where the international prohibition of chemical weapons is not yet fully in force,” the OPCW said (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons release, Dec. 22).

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