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Iraq: U.N. Experts Say Progress Made on Inspections, Questions Remain Iraqi cooperation with inspectors “has improved” and inspectors “have not found” any banned weapons in Iraq, but “significant outstanding issues” concerning anthrax, VX gas and long-range missiles still remain, according to Hans Blix, chairman of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, who briefed the U.N. Security Council this morning (see GSN, Feb. 13). His remarks provided arguments both for countries advocating the forcible disarmament of Iraq and those promoting continued inspections. Blix said an issue “of great significance is that many proscribed weapons and items are not accounted for. One must not jump to the conclusion that they exist. However, that possibility is also not excluded. If they exist, they should be presented for destruction. If they do not exist, credible evidence to that effect should be presented.” Following Blix, International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed ElBaradei told the council, “We have to date found no evidence of ongoing prohibited nuclear or nuclear-related activities in Iraq. However, … a number of issues are still under investigation and we are not yet in a position to reach a conclusion about them.” UNMOVIC is charged by the council with verifying that Iraq does not possess chemical or biological weapons or missiles that exceed a range of 150 kilometers. The IAEA’s mandate is investigating nuclear weapons. Blix said experts have studied two missiles Iraq is building that could exceed the 150-kilometer range. He said the experts were “unanimous” that the al-Samoud 2 missile violates that limit “and is therefore proscribed,” but that the al-Fatah missile needs further study (see GSN, Feb. 13). ElBaradei said several suspect programs — including high-tolerance aluminum tubes, conventional explosives and magnets — that could be used for producing nuclear weapons need further study. He said the IAEA is working to expand “near-real-time monitoring of dual-use equipment and related activities.” In 11 weeks of inspections, Blix said UNMOVIC has inspected more than 300 sites and ElBaradei said the IAEA has investigated 125 locations. Neither official explicitly asked for more time to continue inspections, but both spoke about their plans for further expanding their efforts. Ten foreign ministers, including ministers from all five veto-holding permanent members of the Security Council, attended today’s session. Speeches by the council members began after the inspectors’ reports. France maintained its position that inspections are working and need more time. “Let us allow the United Nations inspectors the time they need for their mission to succeed,” said French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin. “No one can assert today that the path of war will be shorter then that of the inspections.” His speech was greeted with applause both from the delegates’ and visitors’ gallery, an extremely rare occurrence at the Security Council (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Feb. 14). Speaking soon after, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell dismissed calls for prolonged inspections and accused Iraq of deceiving the United Nations. “To this day we have not seen the level of cooperation that was anticipated, that was hoped for,” he said. “We cannot allow this process to be endlessly strung out,” Powell added (Reuters, Feb. 14). Shortly before the Security Council briefing, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein issued a decree banning all weapons of mass destruction and materials used to produce them, Reuters reported. Hussein said that Iraq did not have any such weapons. “Individuals and companies in private and mixed sectors are banned from importing and producing chemical, biological and nuclear weapons,” the decree said. Authorities were encouraged “punish those who don’t adhere to” the ban. Washington reacted skeptically to the announcement. “It’s impossible to place any credibility in the laws, so-called laws, of a totalitarian dictatorship,” White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said. “But if one would just want to make believe and pretend that Iraq was a democracy that would pass meaningful laws, it would be 12 years late and 26,000 liters of anthrax short, it would be 12 years late and 38,000 liters of botulin short, and it would be 12 years late and 30,000 unfilled chemical warheads short,” he added (Reuters/Yahoo.com, Feb. 14). United States Prepares New Resolution The United States has begun to draft a new U.N. resolution that finds Iraq in “further material breach” of U.N. resolutions and says Iraq has no intent to comply with its obligations, according to the Wall Street Journal. The draft, as currently written, does not explicitly call for military action, against Iraq, U.S. officials said. This is being done so that if the new resolution is not approved, it will not appear as if the United Nations had vetoed the use of force. Another advantage to this approach is that it allows countries to vote for the resolution, but still say they did not vote for an attack, the Journal reported (Cloud/Champion, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 14). The resolution is set to conclude with “words to the effect that Saddam didn’t avail himself of his final chance to disarm, and will now face the ‘serious consequences’ we’ve been talking about,” a U.S. official said (Sanger/Bumiller, New York Times, Feb. 14). Powell suggested yesterday that one of the main purposes of the new resolution would be to provide political cover to countries that do not support the use of force against Iraq outside a U.N. framework. “I hope in the days ahead we will be able to rally the United Nations around the original resolution and what other resolution might be necessary in order to satisfy the political needs of a number of countries,” Powell said before the House Budget Committee. The United States is not expected to begin circulating the draft to the Security Council until next week (Cloud/Champion, Wall Street Journal). NATO NATO yesterday cancelled a planned meeting of its ambassadors, which was to try to resolve an internal dispute over providing defense planning to Turkey, alliance spokesman Yves Brodeur said today. “After consultations between countries, it was decided that it would be difficult to make progress in a formal meeting,” Brodeur said. “There will not be a meeting today,” he added. The talks to resolve the dispute will probably not resume until next week, in part, because of today’s Security Council meeting, Brodeur said. “We have delayed the meeting until a later time,” Brodeur said. “It could be tomorrow. It could be next week,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, Feb. 14). German Defense Minister Peter Struck said yesterday that a solution to the NATO dispute was close at hand. “We will have a decision in the North Atlantic Council (NATO’s governing body) at the latest Saturday, following the discussions in the U.N. Security Council Friday, which will absolutely satisfy Turkey’s interests,” Struck said. Meanwhile, Germany announced yesterday that it would soon begin shipping Patriot missile interceptors to Turkey. The missile batteries are set to be operated by Dutch crews, according to the Washington Post. Germany, along with France and Belgium, blocked the U.S. request for NATO to begin defensive planning for Turkey. Turkey “can at all times rely on our solidarity to protect it from danger,” German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said (Peter Finn, Washington Post, Feb. 14). Nukes Not Ruled Out U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld yesterday refused to rule out the possible use of nuclear weapons during a conflict with Iraq, but said he did not think they would be needed. “Our policy historically has been generally that we will not foreclose the possible use of nuclear weapons if attacked,” Rumsfeld said before the Senate Armed Services Committee. “We have every confidence that in the event force is to be used in Iraq that we can do what needs to be done using conventional capabilities,” he added. Senator Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) said he was worried about the possible fallout to U.S. relations with other countries if nuclear weapons were used. “I’m concerned that the use of nuclear weapons in Iraq in the absence of an imminent, overwhelming threat to our national security would bring a near-total breakdown in our relations between the United States and the rest of the world, particularly with regard to the Arab world,” Kennedy said (Will Durham, Reuters, Feb. 14). ElBaradei Calls for More Time Yesterday, ElBaradei said that as long as Iraq continued to increase its cooperation with inspectors, the inspections process should be extended. “We are making progress,” ElBaradei said. “If Iraq provides full cooperation, I see no reason to halt the inspection process,” he added. Iraq has improved its cooperation in the procedural aspects of the inspections, but still needs to do more on substantial issues, such as fully disclosing all of its WMD efforts, ElBaradei said. He warned that Iraq would need to have “100 percent cooperation” to avoid war. “In my view Iraq still has a chance to exonerate itself but time is critical,” ElBaradei said. “They can’t afford but to have 100 percent cooperation,” he added (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Feb. 14). Aluminum Tubes IAEA experts yesterday conducted a private interview with a senior Iraqi engineer affiliated with Iraq’s efforts to obtain and use high-strength aluminum tubes, which the United States has alleged were for use in a uranium-enrichment program, according to a U.N. spokesman (U.N. release, Feb. 13). Iraq, however, has claimed that the tubes were for use in a conventional rocket program. U.S. intelligence agencies have tested some of the tubes that had been previously intercepted en route to Iraq, spinning them at the speeds required to enrich uranium, according to Time. While tubes that would have been used in a rocket program would have been destroyed at such high speeds, the intercepted tubes survived, Time reported (Michael Elliott, Time, Feb. 17). Inspections Chemical inspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission yesterday also continued the planned destruction of shells and mustard gas located at al-Muthanna. The inspectors began detoxifying the chemical agent removed from the shells, according to an IAEA press release (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Feb. 13). For further information, see:
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