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Iran:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">  </span>Russian Nuclear Assistance Motivated by Economic NeedsFrom Thursday, February 27, 2003 issue.

Iran:  Russian Nuclear Assistance Motivated by Economic Needs

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

Economic concerns are driving Russian nuclear cooperation with Iran and the assistance will most likely continue unabated unless the United States makes an effort to compensate Moscow for the business it would lose, according to Russian and U.S. lawmakers (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2002).

Russia is currently assisting Tehran with the construction of a nuclear reactor at the southern city of Bushehr, which Iranian officials said is being developed for civilian energy needs.  Earlier this month, Iran announced it has expanded its nuclear efforts and will begin mining its own uranium.  A team from the International Atomic Energy Agency recently visited Iran to examine its nuclear efforts (see GSN, Feb. 24).

U.S. officials, however, have alleged that Iran is using the facilities to develop a nuclear weapons program.  Russian officials concur that they do not want to see a nuclear-armed Iran, but have argued that Russian assistance has served strictly peaceful purposes.

“We definitely do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons,” said Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Russian Federation Council’s Foreign Affairs Committee.  Margelov testified yesterday to the U.S. House International Relations Committee regarding Russian relations with Iran and Iraq.

“I would like to stress here that our nuclear sector needs contracts and if the United States of America, if other Russian partners and antiterrorist coalitions can offer such contracts, that can be good for our nuclear industry, that will, I think, limit its cooperation with Iran.  They have to survive, so try to help them,” he said.

Representative Tom Lantos (D-Calif.) said that he had discussed that issue with Russian nuclear officials.

“We do realize that your nuclear industry needs to survive and there are certainly more creative ways of achieving that survival than to close our eyes to exports to Iran, which we view as extremely, extremely dangerous and destabilizing,” Lantos said.

Faced with a string of congressional criticism of Russia’s collaboration with Iran, Margelov criticized Washington for oversimplifying the situation.  He said the “axis of evil” label — affixed by U.S. President George W. Bush to Iran, Iraq, and North Korea — was a public relations tool.

“In the United States, these countries are often defined as ‘axis of evil.’  I used to be much involved in the Soviet propaganda machine.  Lately I worked for some American consulting companies, for at least five years.  Therefore, I understand that directly defining the enemy facilitates many goals, particularly in the sphere of public relations,” Margelov said.

U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton visited Moscow this week and urged Russian officials to end their nuclear relationship with Iran.  The Los Angeles Times quoted a U.S. official as saying that recent revelations of Iranian nuclear facilities were creating concern in Moscow.

“They are now more persuaded than they were before that Iran does have a clandestine nuclear weapons program,” the official said.  “I think for some time the Russians felt that Iranians can’t develop a nuclear weapons program.  I think they’re beginning to see that in fact they are,” the official added.

During a Heritage Foundation panel yesterday, several nonproliferation experts said any nuclear cooperation with Iran was fraught with danger.

The Iranian nuclear projects are “very disturbing, even if they are placed under inspection,” said Leonard Spector, from the Washington office of the Monterey Institute of International Studies.  Drawing a parallel with the current North Korean nuclear crisis, Spector said the nuclear projects allow Iran to expel inspectors and quickly move toward developing nuclear weapons.

“One has to ask why Russia was prepared to provide such a powerful reactor … where is this leading?” Spector asked.

“This is one of the issues that puts Russian credibility on the line,” said Ariel Cohen, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation who participated in both the congressional hearing and the Heritage panel.

Cohen also encouraged an economic solution to the situation.

“We should be considering an economic package that will bring to closure Russian nuclear cooperation with Iran, will provide full disclosure of private prior cooperation and will finalize a list of unstable or terrorist-supporting countries that the Russians should not sell nuclear, dual-use or military technology,” he said.

It remained unclear if an end to Russian cooperation would stop Iran’s nuclear program.  Countries other than Russia are most likely assisting Iran as well, and Tehran could be close to running the nuclear effort on its own, experts said.

Running a nuclear plant is not easy and current unclassified information suggests that Iran still needs outside assistance, Spector said.

U.S. intelligence agencies, however, do not share their latest reports with the public, he added.

Panel members also criticized Moscow for being shortsighted in its nuclear cooperation.  The same nuclear technology Moscow is currently sharing could be widely proliferated and eventually aimed at Russia, Cohen said.

While Margelov told the House committee that Iran is an “important regional partner,” Russian relations with Iran are not always harmonious, several experts said.

This is “an anomalous period in the Russian-Iranian relationship,” said panel member Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Eisenstadt noted, however, that the Bushehr project has taken about twice as long as was originally intended and is not due to be completed for several years.  Russia, he suggested, might be attempting to make money from the project without providing Iran a nuclear capability.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if this drags on,” he said.

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