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Iraq I: So Far, Baghdad’s Compliance “Very Limited,” Blix Says Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix has described Iraq’s efforts to comply with inspections and to disarm itself of weapons of mass destruction as only “very limited,” the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 27). Blix issued his assessment in a report expected to be presented to U.N. Security Council members today, but a draft was leaked to the press yesterday. In the draft report, Blix said Iraq “could have made greater efforts to find any remaining proscribed items or provide credible evidence showing the absence of such items” (Financial Times, Feb. 28). Blix did praise some Iraqi actions, however, such as allowing prompt access to all sites, helping the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission establish operations and for allowing inspectors to fly surveillance aircraft anywhere within the country, according to report excerpts published by the London Independent (see GSN, Feb. 10). Nevertheless, Blix criticized the continuing lack of private interviews with Iraqi scientists and technicians, Iraq’s December declaration of its WMD programs and the decree recently issued by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein outlawing weapons of mass destruction. “The presidential decree … which prohibits private Iraqi citizens and mixed companies from engaging in work relating to weapons of mass destruction, standing alone, is not sufficient to meet the U.N. requirements,” the draft report says (London Independent, Feb. 28). The report says that UNMOVIC is completing a list of unresolved disarmament issues and measures Iraq could take to address them, such as presenting inspectors with prohibited weapons and equipment or providing evidence that such items do not exist. Even if Iraq chooses to fully comply with inspectors, it will still take time to complete disarmament, Blix said (CNN.com, Feb. 28). Security Council Still Divided Over Next Steps Yesterday’s Security Council meeting ended without any progress in reconciling members divided over what should be the next step in dealing with Iraq. Six of the 10 elected members who have not committed to any position — Angola, Cameroon, Chile, Guinea, Mexico, and Pakistan — said they were not ready to declare support for either of the opposing plans before the council. A draft resolution, sponsored by the United States, United Kingdom and Spain would declare that “Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity” to disarm, a finding that could be used as an authorization to use force against Iraq. France, Russia and Germany have a memorandum calling for “reinforced” inspections on a timeline that could take inspections into the summer before the council makes a decision on the use of force. There is also a Canadian paper circulating among council members that tries to bridge the two positions by calling for a timeframe for compliance, as the French-German-Russian paper proposes, but on a shorter schedule — the end of March rather than July — which is more in line with the spirit of the draft resolution. Bulgaria is the only other council member to publicly support the draft resolution. Syria is opposed to it. China supports the inspection plan. Nine affirmative votes are needed to adopt a council resolution, provided that none of the five permanent members uses its veto. “This divided council is in fact putting a decision on the shoulders of the elected members, while the permanent members stick to their positions without making efforts to adjust their views,” said Chilean Ambassador Gabriel Valdes. Reflecting the language of the French-German-Russian paper, he said, “Inspections cannot be eternal. … We want the inspectors to give us their plan of work. … Only then could the Security Council really take a decision by substantive majority that would express the view of the international community.” German Ambassador Gunter Pleuger, the president of the council for February, said putting the matter on the elected members “is not the issue. … It was an excellent discussion, very serious and very much to the point.” He added, “It is being done in a collegial and serious way, it is not the question of building coalitions or asking groups in the council to change their minds.” Valdes said he was “very interested” in the Canadian proposal, but that any declaration of support at this point “is out of the question, we have never indicted to any side that we support them.” Pleuger said the Canadian paper had not been presented to the council and thus “has no status in the Security Council.” Canada is not currently a member of the council and therefore was not present in the closed-door meetings. Although media reports from Mexico suggested that President Vincente Fox was shifting toward the U.S. position, Valdes said, “There is complete coordination with Mexico. We have chosen with Mexico a path [not] to support, at this point in time, one position or the other.” Mexican Ambassador Adolfo Aguilar Zinser said his government “is examining all options that have been presented to the Security Council” as well as the Canadian plan. Fox and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien discussed Iraq in Mexico yesterday. When asked if the Mexican position was changing, Zinser said, “We expect inspections to be the peaceful way by which we achieve the disarmament of Iraq.” French Ambassador Jean-Marie de la Sabliere said the differences among the nations are very difficult to bridge. … On the one hand, you have those who think that the time has come for war, they are asking the council to authorize war. On the other side, I think the majority of the council, is saying no, we can continue the inspections.” Pleuger said the majority of the council supports continuing inspections. “It would be a paradox to decide at the moment we are witnessing progress that the path has come to war,” said de la Sabliere. British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock would not discuss with journalists the debate, but instead said he had presented new “facts about current [WMD] activities in Iraq, facts about the concealment program, facts about deceiving inspectors. … In other words, we were showing why a claim by Iraq that there is nothing in terms of their WMD holdings is a lie” (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Feb. 28). Outside the council chambers, the United States is continuing its efforts to gain Russia’s support for the new resolution, according to the Financial Times. The Bush administration has informed Russian officials that it will seek congressional approval of two pro-Russian measures prior to a meeting of world leaders in St. Petersburg scheduled for the end of May, the Times reported. There is a good chance that the Jackson-Vanick law —Cold-War era legislation that restricts trade with Russia — could be repealed, a senior U.S. official said in Moscow. In addition, the U.S. Senate will probably soon approve the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, the official said (Andrew Jack, Financial Times, Feb. 27). Despite these possible advances, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said today Russia still opposes any U.N. resolution that would authorize military action against Iraq and might use its veto to block such a resolution. “Russia does not support any resolution which could directly or indirectly open the way to an armed resolution of the Iraq problem,” Ivanov said during a press conference in Beijing. “Naturally, Russia has the right of veto. If the interest of international stability demands it, Russia, of course will exercise its right,” he added (Reuters, Feb. 28). Inspections The first aerial surveillance operation in Iraq using French Mirage 4 aircraft was successfully conducted Wednesday, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency release. Yesterday, inspectors visited at least eight suspect Iraqi sites, the IAEA release said. UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited the al-Muthana site to continue the destruction of artillery shells filled with mustard gas there. They also visited the Northern Refineries Company in Baiji. UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range and observed the search for R-400 aerial bombs and fragments. UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the David Bros Company in Baghdad in response to Iraq’s declaration concerning a supplier of specialized missile equipment. Inspectors also conducted aerial surveillance operations over two sites — one west of Baghdad and one southwest of the Iraqi capital. IAEA inspectors visited the State Establishment for Electrical Industries in Baghdad. They also conducted a radiation survey in industrial areas west of Baghdad (IAEA release, Feb. 27). For further information, see: U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)
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