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Iraq I: U.S., U.K. Look for U.N. Resolution Vote by End of Next Week The United States and the United Kingdom have decided that a vote on their latest draft U.N. resolution on Iraq should occur by the end of next week, but the two countries will not push for such a vote unless they are confident the draft resolution will receive the nine votes it needs to pass, U.S and diplomatic officials said yesterday (see GSN, March 3). President George W. Bush said in late January that “this issue will come to a head in a matter of weeks, not months,” White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said yesterday. “Nothing has changed that timetable,” Fleischer said. The impending Security Council briefing by U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix, scheduled for Friday, is seen as the beginning of the final debate period over the draft resolution and the ultimate use of force against Iraq, officials said. “I think that … meeting will mark the final open break between council members,” a Security Council ambassador said. The United States believes that Russia and China, two permanent council members that oppose the use of force against Iraq, will abstain rather than veto a new resolution, leaving only France, according to the Washington Post. If the United States and the United Kingdom can round up the necessary nine votes among the nonpermanent members, and assure the Russian and Chinese abstentions, then a vote might be held by the end of next week, even under the threat of a French veto, U.S. and diplomatic officials said. “We could let them veto it and then turn on them,” an official said. If nine votes cannot be guaranteed, however, “then there will be no vote,” the official added. In his report to the Security Council Friday, Blix is expected to say that Iraq has still not made a full commitment to disarm, but it has made some progress, such as beginning to destroy its prohibited al-Samoud 2 missiles, according to the Post (see related GSN story, today; Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, March 4). The White House yesterday criticized Iraq’s new cooperation efforts, however, suggesting they were “the mother of all distractions.” While the United Nations has praised Iraq for agreeing to destroy its al-Samoud 2 missiles, the Bush administration said that, by doing so, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was admitting to lying in the declaration Iraq provided the United Nations in December concerning its WMD efforts. “Here’s the Catch-22 that Saddam Hussein has put himself in," Fleischer said yesterday. “He denied he had these weapons, and then he destroys things he says he never had. If he lies about never having them, how can you trust him when he says he has destroyed them?” Fleischer added. The White House also appeared unimpressed with Iraq’s pledge to provide a new report soon to inspectors on the destruction of its stockpiles of VX and anthrax, according to the New York Times. “How do you know this is not the mother of all distractions, diversions, so the world looks in one place while he buries them in another?” Fleischer asked (Sanger/Shanker, New York Times, March 4). The 10 nonpermanent Security Council members yesterday met with Canadian U.N. Ambassador Paul Heinbecker to discuss a his proposed compromise between those pushing for military action against Iraq and those calling for an extension to the inspections process (see GSN, Feb. 27). The Canadian proposal calls for the Security Council to authorize military action against Iraq at the end of March if Baghdad was found to be still not complying with inspections, according to United Press International. The proposal also includes a timeline for continued, enhanced inspections if inspectors reported “substantial Iraqi compliance” by March 28. While there was division among the 10 nonpermanent council members over the Canadian proposal, there were no negative comments, Heinbecker said. “We’ve been offering ideas and I think it has been appreciated,” Heinbecker said. “Whether or not there will be a sufficient agreement even among the elected members to take the issue forward is for them to answer,” he added (William Reilly, United Press International, March 3). Some council diplomats indicated that the Canadian proposal represented the best chance to maintain some sort of Security Council unity on the Iraq issue, according to the Globe and Mail. “If you want to obtain some sense of agreement … you would have to look at the Canadian alternative, probably in a modified way,” said Deputy Chilean U.N. Ambassador Cristian Maquieira (Paul Knox, Globe and Mail, March 4). U.S. Spying Controversy Meanwhile, Security Council diplomats yesterday were unimpressed by recent reports of a U.S. National Security Agency memo that ordered an increase of surveillance on them to help determine how they might vote on the new U.N. resolution on Iraq, according to the Washington Post. “The fact is, this sort of thing goes with the territory,” said Pakistani U.N. Ambassador Munir Akram. “You’d have to be very naive to be surprised,” Akram added. Espionage is considered a fact of life at the United Nations, U.N diplomats and analysts said, adding that they assume their conversations are being monitored. “I assume every phone conversation I have either on the cell phone or at the office is listened to by several people,” a European diplomat said. When another Security Council diplomat was asked during a telephone interview if he thought his calls were monitored, the diplomat replied, “Let’s ask the guy who’s listening to us” (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, March 4). Some of the smaller Security Council countries consider being the target of foreign intelligence efforts almost as a mark of prestige, said Bulgarian U.N. Ambassador Stefan Tavrov. “It’s almost an offense if they don’t listen,” Tavrov said. “It’s integrated in your thinking and your work,” he added. While U.S. officials refused to confirm or deny the reported NSA memo, current and former U.S. officials familiar with the agency said that it is very likely that the United States is monitoring U.N. diplomats concerning the Iraq issue. “It would be inconceivable to me, with the interest of the nation’s leadership on this set of issues, that we aren’t using all available means to collect as much information as possible,” a former U.S. official said. The leaked memo might have the effect of persuading foreign governments to take measures to block U.S. monitoring efforts, the former U.S. official said. “Not only is it embarrassing, but ultimately it’s compromising sources and methods,” the former official said. “People will go out of their way to prohibit you from having success in the future,” the former official added (Drogin/Miller, Los Angeles Times, March 4). The reports might also increase public opposition to the U.S. stance on Iraq, a former U.S. ambassador with experience in U.N. affairs said. “Diplomatically, it may stiffen opposition to the United States,” the former ambassador said. “It’s not a helpful development,” the former ambassador added. The history of espionage at the United Nations goes clear back to the conference held in San Francisco in 1945 to create the organization, where the United States monitored foreign delegations and pushed for the body to be located in New York to make it easier to conduct espionage, according to historians. “One would have to have the innocence of an unborn child to believe that espionage doesn’t go on every day at the United Nations,” said Loch Johnson, an authority on intelligence at the University of Georgia. “From a purist point of view, it’s unfortunate in a way, because after all, we’re the host nation for the United Nations. But the reality is, Europeans and everyone else engages in espionage in New York City, much of it focused on the United Nations,” Johnson added (Shane/Sabar, Baltimore Sun, March 4). Inspections U.N. inspectors visited at least 15 suspect Iraqi sites yesterday, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency press release. Chemical experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Inspection and Verification Commission visited al-Muthanna to observe the destruction of 14 empty 155 mm artillery shells, 10 of which had once been filled with mustard gas agent. UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited the headquarters of the Mesopotamia State Company for Seeds in Baghdad and the Biology Department at the College of Science at Mosul University. UNMOVIC missile inspectors supervised the destruction of six al-Samoud 2 missiles at al-Taji. They also supervised the destruction of a casting chamber at al-Mutasim (see related GSN story, today). Inspectors also visited al-Furat State Company and an anti-aircraft missile component storage facility outside of Baghdad. Inspectors based in the northern city of Mosul visited a construction agency related to spray irrigation systems, the IAEA release said. IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey in an area north of Baghdad, near the town of Tarmya (IAEA release, March 3). For further information, see: U.N. Resolution 687 (Sanctions Regime)
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