In a tense battle of wills in the U.N. Security Council today, British Foreign Minister Jack Straw introduced amendments to the U.S.-British-Spanish draft resolution on Iraq that would set a deadline “on or before” March 17 for Iraq to disarm or face military action.  The original draft, introduced Feb. 24, would only have the council decide “that Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity afforded to it” to disarm, implying adoption of the resolution would immediately authorize the use of force (see GSN, March 6).

The amendment was immediately rejected by French Foreign Minster Dominique de Villepin, the leading proponent of giving inspectors more time.  “We won’t accept this resolution,” he told reporters minutes after Straw’s statement.  “We cannot accept any ultimatum, any automatic use of force.”

He said setting a deadline of only 10 days “is the logic of war, we don’t accept this logic.”  While not explicitly saying France would veto the new draft, de Villepin said, “We would not accept a resolution that would lead to war.”

The action came following the latest reports to the council from chief U.N. weapons inspectors Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, who said Iraq was being more cooperative, if not fully cooperative, and that they had not unearthed evidence that Iraq had a functioning nuclear weapons program.

Blix, chairman of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, told the council, “After a period of somewhat reluctant cooperation there has been an acceleration of initiatives on the Iraqi side since the end of January” on revealing its programs of weapons of mass destruction, thus giving ammunition both to countries wanting to continue inspections as well as those who want to abandon inspections in favor of the use of force against Iraq.

This new cooperation on Iraq’s part “is welcomed, but the value of these measures must be soberly judged by how many question marks they actually succeed in straightening out.  This is not yet clear,” said Blix.  Iraqi initiatives “cannot be said to constitute immediate cooperation, nor do they necessarily cover all areas of relevance,” but, he added, “they are nevertheless welcomed.”

Blix gave indirect support to the position of France, Russia and Germany that inspectors should be allowed to continue their work until July when he said, “While cooperation can, and is to be, immediate, disarmament and verification of it cannot be instant … It will not take years nor weeks, but months.”

The United States and United Kingdom argue that Iraq is not cooperating and thus inspections have run their course.  Blix helped that case by saying the cooperation has not been “immediate and unconditional,” as called for in Resolution 1441, and that there are many questions regarding the fate of weapons Iraq was known to have at the end of the Gulf War, including anthrax and VX nerve gas, and that it is not known if Iraq resumed weapons programs after inspectors left at the end of 1998.

On the other hand, Blix said UNMOVIC has found no evidence “so far” to back up two of the charges the United States has made against Iraq:  that Iraq is developing biological weapons in mobile laboratories and that it is conducting illegal weapons production underground.

Blix also told the council that UNMOVIC has completed a report that contains clusters of issues that “will identify ‘key remaining disarmament tasks’“ as called for in Resolution 1284, which created UNMOVIC.  This cluster list will provide “a more up-to-date review of the outstanding issues” than earlier documents, he said.  Each cluster ends “with a number of points indicating what Iraq could do to solve the issues.  Hence Iraq’s cooperation could be measured against the successful resolution of issues,” said Blix, again reinforcing the case of those who say more time for inspections will achieve results.

ElBaradei, executive director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the council, “After three months of intrusive inspections, we have to date found no evidence or plausible indication of the revival of a nuclear weapons program in Iraq.”

While not able to completely close the books on Iraq’s nuclear program, ElBaradei said there is “no indication” that Iraq has resumed nuclear activities in buildings identified by national intelligence agencies as conducting such work, or that Iraq has attempted to import uranium since 1990 or that the aluminum tubes Iraq attempted to import are, as the United States has said, useful for producing weapon-grade uranium.

Powell Unconvinced

Following the inspectors’ reports, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said there is “one, very important question before us:  ‘Has the Iraqi regime made the fundamental strategic and political decision to comply with the United Nations Security Council resolutions and rid itself of all of its weapons of mass destruction?’”

He said he listened to the inspectors “very carefully to see if I were hearing that finally Iraq had reached that point,” but said Iraqi concessions had “been pulled out ... by the possibility of military force by the political will of the Security Council.”  He added that cooperation has been given “only grudgingly, rarely unconditionally and primarily under the threat of force.”

“Now is the time for the council to send a clear message to [Iraqi President] Saddam [Hussein] that we have not been taken in by his transparent tactics,” Powell said.  “We believe that the resolution that has been put forward for action by this council is appropriate and in the very near future, we should bring it before this council for a vote.”

Powell called Blix’s cluster report “a category of 12 years of abject failure” by Iraq to disarm.  It is “page after page of how Iraq has obstructed the inspectors,” he said.  The actions asked of Iraq “could have taken many times over the preceding 12 years.”

“How can we rely on assurances now?” he asked.  If Iraq was committed to disarmament, the report “would not be 167 pages of issues and questions, it would thousands upon thousand of pages of answers.”

Germany Responds

Advocates of continuing inspections said there was no need to abandon inspections now that they were succeeding and when the alternative, the use of force, is attended by so many uncertainties.  Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer of Germany, the first council member to speak this morning, said, “Given the current situation and the ongoing progress, we see no need for a second resolution.  Why should we leave the path we have embarked on now that the inspections on the basis of Resolution 1441 are showing viable results?”

“Iraq’s cooperation with UNMOVIC and the IAEA does not yet fully meet U.N. demands,” Fischer said.  “Baghdad could have taken many of the recent steps earlier and more willingly.  In recent days, cooperation has nevertheless notably improved.  This is a positive development which makes all the less comprehensible why this development should now be abandoned” (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, March 7).

Bush Press Conference

U.S. President George W. Bush said last night during a nationally televised press conference that the United States is ready to lead a war against Iraq without the support of the United Nations in order to disarm Iraqi President Saddam Hussein of weapons of mass destruction.

“I’m confident the American people understand that when it comes to our security, if we need to act, we will act, and we really don’t need United Nations approval to do so,” Bush said.  “When it comes to our security, we really don’t need anybody’s permission,” he added.

In his address, Bush warned that the U.N. Security Council’s reputation is at stake in the debate over Iraq.

“I believe it’s an important moment for the Security Council, itself.  And the reason I say that is because this issue has been before the Security Council — the issue of disarmament of Iraq – for 12 long years,” Bush said.  “And the fundamental question facing the Security Council is, ‘Will its words mean anything?’  When the Security Council speaks, will the words have merit and weight?” he added.

The United States has been working over the last few weeks to obtain the support of the nonpermanent members of the Security Council for the draft resolution.  While there have been reports that the United States would not call for a vote on the resolution if it did not have guarantees of enough votes for passage, Bush said the Untied States would still push for a vote regardless of stated support (see GSN, Feb. 21).

“No matter what the whip count is, we’re calling for the vote.  We want to see people stand up and say what their opinion is about Saddam Hussein and the utility of the United Nations Security Council,” Bush said.  “It’s time for people to show their cards, to let the world know where they stand when it comes to Saddam,” he added.

Bush laid out several pieces of U.S. intelligence countering Hussein’s claims of disarmament.  For example, while Iraq has been destroying its stockpile of prohibited al-Samoud 2 missiles, U.S. intelligence has found that Hussein has ordered their continued production, Bush said.  Iraq has also attempted to hide its stockpiles of biological and chemical agents by moving them to different locations every 12 to 24 hours and by placing them within vehicles parked in residential areas, he said.

“These are not the actions of a regime that is disarming,” Bush said.  “These are the actions of a regime engaged in a willful charade.  These are the actions of a regime that systematically and deliberately is defying the world,” he added.

Bush last night also promised that the United States would aid in the reconstruction of a post-Hussein Iraq in the event of war, including humanitarian assistance and aid in establishing a democratic government.

“In the event of conflict, America also accepts our responsibility to protect innocent lives in every way possible,” Bush said.  “We’ll help that nation to build a just government, after decades of brutal dictatorship.  The form and leadership of that government is for the Iraqi people to choose.  Anything they choose will be better than the misery and torture and murder they have known under Saddam Hussein,” he added (Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, March 7).

Inspectors Not Receiving Best Intelligence, U.S. Senator Says

The United States has withheld from U.N. inspectors most of its best intelligence information on Iraq’s suspected WMD sites, U.S. Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.) said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 28).

“I think we have a strong case (for war) in the Security Council,” Levin said.  “But the administration has undermined the inspection process and mocked the inspectors.  We have reduced the possibility that we catch the SOB with the stuff and galvanize the world community,” he added.

Former CIA counterterrorism official Vince Cannistraro said he agreed with Levin’s claims that the United States has not provided the best of its intelligence.  This might have been done, however, because the White House has never wanted the inspections to succeed, he said.

“The objective is not disarmament, it’s to get rid of Saddam.  We won’t take yes for an answer on this,” Cannistraro said.

In a letter sent yesterday to Levin and Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R-Va.), CIA Director George Tenet defended the U.S. information-sharing with inspectors, saying that U.S. agencies have given “extensive intelligence and other support to the U.N. on Iraq and weapons of mass destruction for over 10 years” (Dave Moniz, USA Today, March 7).

Inspections

U.N. inspectors visited at least 13 suspect Iraqi sites yesterday, according to an IAEA press release.

Missile experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission traveled to al-Mutasim to observe the final concrete encasing of two destroyed casting chambers.  UNMOVIC missile inspectors also visited the al-Samoud Factory to inventory al-Samoud 2 missile components.

UNMOVIC biological inspectors traveled to al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range to take samples from excavated R-400 bombs.  They also inspected two facilities near Aziziyah owned by the Mesopotamia State Company for Seeds.  UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited the Akashat Phosphate Mine in al-Qaim.

Inspectors conducted aerial inspections of three undisclosed sites located in the northern no-fly zone, according to the IAEA release.  Inspectors based in the northern city of Mosul visited the North Gas Company in Kirkuk.

IAEA inspectors visited the SAAD State Company in Baghdad and conducted a review of a new factory the company is designing.  IAEA inspectors also visited a private trading company in the Mansour district of Baghdad and conducted a radiation survey in north Baghdad (IAEA release, March 6).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

U.N. Resolution 1441

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