Some intelligence sources and analysts have said that even though the United States has been able to achieve some success in combating al-Qaeda, there are signs that the terrorist group is laying low and slowly rebuilding, the Christian Science Monitor reported today (see GSN, May 2).

There are indications that al-Qaeda has continued to adapt and reorganize even while the United States works hard to eliminate it, according to the Monitor.  For example, there are signs that the group has replaced key operatives who have been captured, as well as worked to regain bases in Afghanistan and to better hide its financial networks.

In addition, there are concerns that the recent U.S. war in Iraq and the fall of former President Saddam Hussein could help create a new recruiting ground for al-Qaeda, the Monitor reported.

“The toppling of the Saddam Hussein regime could have a cataclysmic effect on the mobilization of recruits for al-Qaeda," says a European intelligence report.  “Despite the significant successes we’ve had against them, and the pressure we’ve brought to bear, we cannot say that the al-Qaeda network has been weakened, let alone destroyed,” the report says.

Al-Qaeda’s most important connections are now with terrorist groups based in Pakistan, Southeast Asia and East Africa, the report says.  It also says that Saudi Arabia is still an important financial source to the group, and that Saudi Arabia and Yemen both provide al-Qaeda with locations to train and plan.

While al-Qaeda has suffered from having a number of top operatives captured, it has also had success in replacing the losses it has suffered, according to the European report.

“Has al-Qaeda been hurt by its losses?  Sure,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official.  “But there’s no indication that the losses aren’t being replaced,” the official said (Faye Bowers, Christian Science Monitor, May 5).

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