By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Congressional Budget Office has estimated that a White House proposal to purchase medical countermeasures to defend against a possible biological weapons attack will cost more than $8 billion — $2.5 billion more than Bush administration estimates (see GSN, April 7).

U.S. President George W. Bush first proposed “Project Bioshield” in his State of the Union address in January (see GSN, Jan. 29).  The project would provide the Health and Human Services Department with a “permanent, indefinite funding authority” to purchase vaccines and treatments against biological agents in order to encourage commercial manufacturers to produce such items, according to a CBO report released this week.

The White House has estimated that Project Bioshield will cost $5.6 billion over the next 10 years to purchase and stockpile seven new countermeasures to defend against five biological agents — anthrax, smallpox, botulinum toxin, plague and Ebola.  Of that, more than half would go toward purchasing new anthrax and smallpox countermeasures, such as next-generation vaccines, the CBO report says.

In late January, soon after Bush’s address, Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Mark McClellan was quoted by the Washington Post as saying that the $6 billion estimate was developed after “a careful analysis of the threats against this country” (see GSN, Jan. 30).

Congressional auditors, however, have estimated that the project would probably cost $8.1 billion over the next 10 years — an  increase of almost 45 percent over White House estimates.  The increased CBO estimate takes into account the possible purchase of countermeasures for additional biological agents, as well as chemical, nuclear and radiological agents, currently unaddressed in the administration’s plans for the program, the report says.

The White House plans to develop a stockpile of new botulinum antitoxin at a cost of $800 million over a three-year period, beginning “in the next few years,” the report says.  In addition to the new antitoxin, the White House is also preparing to purchase doses of a new vaccine and monoclonal antibodies against botulinium toxin beginning by 2008 at a cost of $890 million.

To help defend against a possible plague outbreak, the Bush administration is considering purchasing 2 million doses of plague vaccine at a total cost of $220 million over the next 10 years beginning in 2005, according to the report.  It also says that the White House is interested in purchasing 3 million doses of an Ebola vaccine currently being researched by the National Institutes of Health.  The Bush administration has estimated that such a vaccine will become available in 2005 and anticipates spending $260 million over the next 10 years to purchase and store doses, the report says.

The CBO’s own estimate of the costs to purchase and store the countermeasures differs from that of the White House.  According to its report, the CBO estimated that the costs for the White House’s procurement goals would cost $4.8 billion over the next 10 years, approximately $800 million less than the White House estimate.  Congressional auditors estimated that spending for new botulinum, plague and Ebola vaccines would be less than the White House’s estimate because the vaccines may not be available as soon as the White House estimates, according to the report.

The potential cost of Project Bioshield increases when the possible purchase of other countermeasures is included, according to the report.  For example, the Bush administration could purchase through the project several other new treatments being developed to counter the five high-priority biological agents, such as new antiviral drugs to treat smallpox and viral hemorrhagic fevers, along with a new antibiotic to combat anthrax, the report says.  There are also  “numerous” other biological agents for which countermeasures could be purchased through the project.

In addition, Project Bioshield could also be used to procure countermeasures against chemical, nuclear and radiological agents, in addition to the biological countermeasures the White House plans to purchase, according to the report.  The CBO estimated that it could cost up to $20 billion to purchase and store countermeasures for these additional agents, but also determined that the White House would not be interested in purchasing all of them.  In the end, the CBO estimated that it would cost an additional $3.3 billion over the next 10 years to cover the potential purchase of countermeasures against agents not included in the White House plan, accounting for the larger total estimate.

Meanwhile, legislation enacting Project Bioshield appears to have become stalled in both houses of Congress, according to reports.  The House Energy and Commerce Committee yesterday canceled a markup hearing on the House version of the bill at the White House’s request, according to CongressDaily. 

In the Senate, the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee approved a version of the bill creating the program more than a month ago, but the objections of Senator Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) has kept the bill off the floor, CongressDaily reported.

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