Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei yesterday renounced nuclear weapons (AFP/Getty). Iran Submits Nuclear Report to IAEA The International Atomic Energy Agency has received a report from Iran concerning its nuclear activities, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today. Iran’s representative to the IAEA, Ali Akbar Salehi, delivered the report eight days before an Oct. 31 deadline ElBaradei said (see GSN, Oct. 22)...Full Story

North Korea to Ask for More Information on Bush Proposal Despite publicly dismissing U.S. President George W. Bush’s offer of a multilateral security assurance, North Korea is quietly seeking more information on the proposal, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Oct. 22)...Full Story

U.S. Military Official Praises Army Smallpox Vaccination Program By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. military’s effort to inoculate more than 500,000 soldiers with the smallpox vaccine — begun last December in anticipation of a war on Iraq — has wound down to where a relatively small number of personnel now receive the vaccine each month, a senior Army official reported yesterday. A low percentage of serious side effects have been reported so far, he said (see GSN, May 7)...Full Story

	Thursday, October 23, 2003

Iran, North Korea Developments Bolster Advocates of Diplomacy Critics of the Bush administration’s willingness to use unilateral, pre-emptive force to address international security concerns are pointing to recent developments in the Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises as evidence that multilateral, diplomatic strategies can be effective, the Newhouse News Service reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 17). Following a visit from three European foreign ministers, Iran this week announced that it would suspend its uranium enrichment activities and would allow international inspectors greater access to its nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, U.S. President George W. Bush this week offered to sign a multilateral security assurance for North Korea, a move that steers the solution to the nuclear crisis there away from bilateral talks (see related GSN stories, today). “I don’t want to get too enthusiastic about it, but this is surprisingly good news,” said Joseph Cirincione, head the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nonproliferation Project. “In both the case of Iran and North Korea, it looks like international diplomacy is showing promise rather than the straightforward military option,” he said. “The pre-emptive war model has failed,” Cirincione added. “The costs have proven to be far higher than anyone thought and the benefits very uncertain,” he said (David Wood, Newhouse News Service, Oct. 22). Bush yesterday said that he has never abandoned diplomatic solutions as alternatives. “I’ve been saying all along that not every policy issue needs to be dealt with by force,” he told reporters while flying to a state visit in Australia. “There are ways to achieve common objectives, and this is a common objective,” Bush said of the recent Iranian developments (David Sanger, New York Times, Oct. 23). Another analyst said the United States was acting more out of necessity than principle. “We’re already involved in one war and we’re kind of overextended militarily. We have to treat these other cases (Iran and North Korea) differently,” said Harvey Sapolsky, director of security studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Another expert said it was too early to know which strategies were more successful. “We’ll see what happens,” said James Steinberg, director of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution. “It is certainly good to see diplomacy tried seriously, but I’d be cautious in proclaiming victory until we see where this all comes out,” he added (Wood, Newhouse News Service). Back to top

Iran Submits Nuclear Report to IAEA The International Atomic Energy Agency has received a report from Iran concerning its nuclear activities, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today. Iran’s representative to the IAEA, Ali Akbar Salehi, delivered the report eight days before an Oct. 31 deadline ElBaradei said (see GSN, Oct. 22). “I was assured that the report I got today is a comprehensive and accurate declaration,” ElBaradei said. “It is a large set of documents.  We obviously have to start our verification activities, (but) it is going to take us time to go through all these documents and reconstruct the full history of the program,” he added. Salehi said the report was complete. “We have submitted a report that fully discloses our past activities, peaceful activities, in the nuclear field,” he said. While defending the legality of Iran’s nuclear activities, Salehi acknowledged that they were often conducted “discreetly.” “The important thing to note is that Iran had to do some of its activities very discreetly because of the sanctions that have been imposed on Iran for the past 25 years,” Salehi said. “Those activities ... that were legal activities ... were within its (Iran’s) rights, but nevertheless it had to do them discreetly,” he said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Oct. 23). United Kingdom Calls on Iran to Honor Pledge British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said today that he expected Iran to abide by its agreement earlier this week to sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would grant the agency the authority to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Tehran’s nuclear efforts. “We look and hope and expect that Iran will stand by the agreement that we made which hook in very tightly to the obligations on them imposed by the IAEA,” Straw said. “The words are important but the test of the words is action,” he said (Agence France-Presse, Oct. 23). Iran Does Not Need Nuclear Weapons, Ayatollah Says Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran does not need to develop nuclear weapons. “We have always said we have no need of nuclear weapons because the possession of such arms does not signify power,” Khamenei was quoted as saying by Iranian state television. “We believe the possession of strong human potential to master modern science, faith and the will to resist is what brings power,” he said (BBC News, Oct. 22). Back to top       North Korea to Ask for More Information on Bush Proposal Despite publicly dismissing U.S. President George W. Bush’s offer of a multilateral security assurance, North Korea is quietly seeking more information on the proposal, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Oct. 22). North Korean “representatives in New York will contact American government officials soon,” said a diplomatic source with close ties to Pyongyang. “The North wants to know the true intention of Bush’s remarks,” the source added (Reuters, CNN.com, Oct. 23). Yesterday, Bush restated his insistence that any security assurance given to North Korea would not come in the form of a legally binding pact with the United States. “A treaty is not going to happen, but there are other ways to affect, on paper, what I have said publicly: We have not intention of invading,” Bush told reporters while flying to Australia for a state visit. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il “has been saying, ‘I want a security guarantee.’ And what we have now said is that in return for dismantling the programs, we’re all willing to sign some kind of document, not a treaty, but a peace of paper that says, ‘We won’t attack you.’ We’ll see what happens,” Bush said. The specifics of the document remain to be determined, Bush said, adding that the tone of the problem has changed because North Korea would now be faced with making a deal with all of its direct neighbors as well as the United States. “The neighborhood is now speaking,” he said. “Now five nations are willing to say something about his [Kim’s] security,” Bush added (White House release, Oct. 22). Back to top       Increased Efforts Needed to Secure Nuclear Stockpiles, Researcher Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Increased efforts are needed to improve the security of stockpiles of nuclear weapons and related materials throughout the world, a Harvard University researcher said in a report released yesterday, calling such a move “the most critical and cost-effective step” toward preventing terrorists from obtaining nuclear weapons (see GSN, Sept. 23). In the report, Matthew Bunn of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs outlined both the progress that has been made over the last year in increasing the security of nuclear stockpiles, as well as lingering obstacles to such efforts. Bunn warned of the dangers of terrorist groups obtaining nuclear weapons and said that securing the materials needed to produce such weapons would be the most effective means of preventing a possible terrorist nuclear attack. “A nuclear bomb cannot be made without the necessary nuclear materials, and these materials are beyond the plausible capabilities of terrorists to produce. Thus, if the existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons and materials can be effectively secured and prevented from falling into terrorist hands, nuclear weapons terrorism can be effectively prevented: no material, no bomb,” Bunn said in the report, which was funded by the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Over the past year, the United States has made progress in improving the security of nuclear weapons and materials throughout the world through several measures, according to Bunn. He cited the progress made in installing security and accounting upgrades for an additional 35 out of an estimated 600 tons of nuclear material in Russia. Early this year, the United States and Russia also achieved a “breakthrough” in discussions to grant U.S. experts access to Russian nuclear warhead storage sites, with an initial agreement allowing U.S. experts to visit nine such sites, Bunn said.  In addition, an additional 30 tons of Russian highly enriched uranium (HEU) has been diluted this year to low enriched uranium, resulting in 193 tons of Russian HEU destroyed by the end of last month — “enough for over 12,000 nuclear bombs,” according to Bunn. He also praised international efforts to help secure nuclear materials. By the end of the year, Bunn said, experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency are scheduled to visit nine countries to review their materials and facilities security arrangements and to advise on possible improvements. In addition, the IAEA’s Nuclear Security Fund has received more than $20 million in funding pledges, including an additional $3 million pledged by the United States last month, he said (see GSN, Sept. 16). Bunn also noted a joint U.S.-Russian operation conducted last month that removed more than 30 pounds of HEU from a Romanian research reactor and transported it to a Russian storage site for future dilution (see GSN, Sept. 22). He also warned, however, that more than 130 research reactors around the world still use HEU, which would provide terrorists their best opportunity to produce a nuclear weapon, “yet many of these have no more security than a night watchman and a chain-link fence.” Obstacles Remain Despite these successful efforts to improve nuclear material security, Bunn outlined several obstacles that remain to be overcome. For example, he criticized the Bush administration’s focus on a dispute over liability provisions in threat reduction agreements with Russia (see GSN, Oct. 17). This “obscure dispute,” Bunn said, has led to the expiration of two major threat reduction agreements — the Nuclear Cities Initiative, which works to reduce the number of Russian nuclear weapons workers; and an agreement on technical cooperation to reduce excess weapon-grade plutonium stockpiles. Bunn also criticized the Bush administration for ending efforts designed to improve security at Russian tactical nuclear warhead sites. He dismissed the administration’s position that such efforts would help improve Russia’s operational nuclear capabilities. “In other words, Russian operational nuclear capabilities pose so little threat to the United States that we can have a strategic arms reduction agreement with no verification provisions at all, but so much of a threat to the United States that we should leave Russia’s nuclear weapons more vulnerable to falling into the hands of terrorists to avoid increasing those Russian capabilities. This policy can most charitably be described as incoherent,” Bunn said. In addition, Bunn criticized the U.S. Congress for hindering threat reduction projects by adding “impractical certification and reporting requirements” and for considering loosening restrictions on HEU exports for use in producing medical isotopes. Congress is currently debating an energy bill that includes a provision for loosening such restrictions (see GSN, Oct. 6). What Can Be Done? In his report, Bunn called on U.S. President George W. Bush to make a firm commitment to secure stockpiles of nuclear weapons and materials throughout the world. “President Bush needs to say firmly to his administration: ‘I want to get all of the nuclear weapons and materials in the world effectively secured, and the materials removed entirely from the most vulnerable sites, just as quickly as that can possibly be done. I want a plan drawn up, and a management approach put in place where I can hold someone accountable for getting it done. I will tolerate no delays,’” Bunn said. He also said that “a single mission-focused effort” that include the ability to provide incentives to reluctant countries was needed to remove stockpiles of nuclear materials from the world’s most vulnerable sites. Such a program, which could possibly be funded at about $50 million annually, “could eliminate many of the most serious nuclear terrorism dangers around the world in a few years,” Bunn said. Bunn also urged the Bush administration to accelerate and strengthen its cooperation with Russia to secure nuclear stockpiles, and to work to build a global coalition to upgrade the security of nuclear stockpiles throughout the world (see GSN, June 2). “Together, these three elements … form the central core of a plan that could drastically reduce the danger of nuclear terrorism within the next few years,” Bunn said. [EDITOR’S NOTE: NTI is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by National Journal Group.] Back to top       U.S. Tritium-Producing Nuclear Plant Powers Up A U.S. civilian nuclear power plant in Tennessee that is equipped to produce tritium, a hydrogen isotope used in nuclear weapons, has resumed operation, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Oct. 6). The Watts Bar plant was listed today at 44 percent of full power and climbing, said John Moulton, a spokesman for the Tennessee Valley Authority, which owns the plant. Since early last month, workers have been installing tritium-producing fuel rods into the plant’s reactor, which began producing power Monday night, AP reported. The reactor “is operating as it should,” Moulton said (Duncan Mansfield, Associated Press/Knoxville News-Sentinel, Oct. 23). Back to top

U.S. Military Official Praises Army Smallpox Vaccination Program By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. military’s effort to inoculate more than 500,000 soldiers with the smallpox vaccine — begun last December in anticipation of a war on Iraq — has wound down to where a relatively small number of personnel now receive the vaccine each month, a senior Army official reported yesterday. A low percentage of serious side effects have been reported so far, he said (see GSN, May 7). The vaccinations probably did cause, however, 58 cases of serious heart trouble known as myo-pericarditis, said Army Col. John Grabenstein, the deputy director for military vaccines for the Army Surgeon General. He said no deaths have been attributed to the vaccinations, even after the close investigation of three soldiers who died after receiving the vaccine. About 500,000 soldiers, particularly those deployed in Iraq and neighboring countries, plus up to 5,000 members of smallpox epidemic response teams and up to 25,000 members of medical teams have been vaccinated since U.S. President George W. Bush announced the effort last Dec. 13., according to data presented by Grabenstein (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2002). By Oct. 15, 504,028 personnel had been vaccinated, Grabenstein said in a presentation at Harvard University’s Biosecurity 2003 conference here. A parallel effort to massively vaccinate the civilian population has fallen far short of its goal, with fewer than 40,000 people of a targeted 439,000 volunteering for inoculations. With respect to the military program, the peak rate of vaccinations was 200,000 in February. Since July, though, the Army has averaged about 8,000 per month. Some Complications Vaccine recipients are screened to prevent high-risk people, such as those with a weakened immune system, eczema or with serious heart disease, from being vaccinated, but small numbers of the recipients nevertheless suffered side effects, Grabenstein said. He reported that 3 percent of inoculated hospital staffers took sick leave following their vaccination, as did 0.5 percent of deployed troops. The average sick leave lasted 1 1/2 days.  He said today that he did not have figures indicating sick-leave rates for other groups of vaccine recipients, but added, “The rates from the three sources were pretty consistent with each other, indicating that they apply to the other settings too.” In his conference presentation, Grabenstein described the “noteworthy” complications from the vaccinations, including one case of encephalitis, 34 mild cases of generalized vaccinia and 90 cases of inadvertent eye or skin infections apparently caused by vaccine recipients touching the post-vaccination scab and transferring the vaccine virus to other areas. As for cardiac complications, Grabenstein reported 56 “probable” cases of myo-pericarditis and two “confirmed” cases. “Smallpox vaccination increases risk of myo-pericarditis” among adult males receiving the vaccination for the first time, he concluded. Earlier this year, Grabenstein coauthored a paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association on those complications, which were not anticipated by experts (see GSN, May 23). It concluded: “Myo-pericarditis should be considered an expected adverse event associated with smallpox vaccination,” and advised doctors to consider it when diagnosing chest pains within 30 days after a vaccination. Grabenstein said data is still being compiled on how many of those 58 recovered fully. He also reported 18 initial diagnoses of ischemia, which results from an imbalance between oxygen supply and demand and can lead to insufficient oxygen to the heart or brain. Six of those diagnoses were later changed to myo-pericarditis. Of the remaining 12 cases, there was one fatality: a 55-year-old smoker with various heart ailments, he said. He was “waiting for his heart attack to happen,” said Grabenstein. Grabenstein said the number of ischemia cases “did not exceed” the expected level of ischemia for nonvaccinated people in the Defense Department. “Our experience suggests that broad smallpox vaccination programs may be implemented with fewer serious adverse events than previously believed,” Grabenstein wrote in another coauthored article also published in the Journal of the American Medical Association last June. Back to top       Global Smallpox Defenses Remain Inconsistent By David McGlinchey Global Security Newswire GENEVA — For the past two years U.S. lawmakers and health officials have worked feverishly to strengthen the nation against a terrorist attack using biological weapons, but global biological defenses are still plagued by inattention or underfunding, according to several health officials and experts at a Smallpox Biosecurity conference here yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 22). “I think it honestly is a problem,” said Ricardo Wittek, a professor at the University of Lausanne who co-chaired this week’s conference. He told Global Security Newswire that he was “not too pessimistic” but “if there is an outbreak, it would become a world problem, and developing countries might not have the means,” to vaccinate their populations against smallpox. Thailand has no plans to purchase additional vaccine and Thai officials will instead rely on small 20-year old stockpiles, according to Pilaipan Puthavathana, a microbiology professor at Bangkok’s Mahidol University. “We think we are at moderate to low risk of an outbreak, and we have to think of cost effectiveness,” Puthavathana said. During this year’s outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Thai biological defense efforts were curtailed completely, she added. When Seoul National University professor Myoung-don Oh wanted to become the first South Korean volunteer to receive the vaccine, he was confronted by a lack of health care workers with smallpox experience and instead administered the inoculation himself. He then took it upon himself to recruit additional volunteers. Even Belgium is only planning to purchase enough vaccine for 10 percent of its population, with plans to dilute the stocks or use targeted vaccinations if an outbreak occurs, according to experts here. In contrast, the United States is purchasing a dose of smallpox for every U.S. resident. Health officials urged developing countries and the World Health Organization to consider the danger of a potential smallpox attack. “A smallpox attack anywhere is a problem for everyone,” said D.A. Henderson, the principal science adviser to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Wittek said he hoped that richer countries would turn their attention to developing nations’ biological defenses. “It is in their interest,” he said. Back to top       No Biological, Chemical Agents Found During Philippine Raid, Official Says The Philippine military announced yesterday that no biological or chemical weapons had been found during a raid on a hideout used by the Islamic militant group Jemaah Islamiyah. Initial reports following the raid said that authorities had found suspected biological agents (see GSN, Oct. 20). On Sunday, authorities found an unidentified powder during a raid on the group’s hideout in Cotabato City on the southern island of Mindanao. Vice Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Rodolfo Garcia said the powder was the residue of an explosive material. “I don’t think that the JI has biochemical capability,” Garcia said (Reuters/AlertNet, Oct. 22). Back to top       Smallpox Simulation Spurs Eight Nations to Plan Emergency Response System Top U.S. and British health officials met yesterday in Washington to discuss the results of a multinational bioterrorism exercise held last month that highlighted the need for improved communication between international health agencies (see GSN, Sept. 9). The “Global Mercury” exercise simulated a smallpox attack in which self-infected, Asian-based terrorists flew commercially to Vancouver, Canada, and then to Europe. Passengers infected by the terrorists then traveled unwittingly to multiple cities. The simulation tested officials’ responses in eight nations belonging to the Global Health Security Group, which includes France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Yesterday, British Health Secretary John Reid met with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson to discuss their findings. They are expected to recommend creating a rapid-response protocol for major medical disasters after the simulation found that officials around the world had difficultly communicating easily, according to the London Times. The protocol would probably resemble a British system that enables senior government officials to alert senior doctors nationwide by e-mail and pager messages, sources said. The system could be used for bioterrorist events as well as naturally occurring ones, such as outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). “If there was a smallpox outbreak, the speed of our response could determine the fate of thousands of people. It is vital that we are as well prepared as we can be,” said one project participant (Oliver Wright, London Times, Oct. 23). Back to top       United States, Singapore to Create Joint Biological Research Center The United States and Singapore are set to create a joint biological research center next year to help combat bioterrorism, the Straits Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 21). Several U.S. agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health, along with Singapore hospitals and research centers, will help create the Regional Emerging Diseases Intervention Center in Singapore, according to the Straits Times. U.S. experts will be based at the center to help train Singapore public health officials and researchers and to help strengthen disease surveillance and rapid response capabilities. “This is a major development for Singapore because it gives us the chance to extend our capabilities quickly,” said Edison Liu, head of the Genome Institute of Singapore (Chang Ai-Lien, Straits Times, Oct. 22).   Back to top

FBI Investigates Ricin Letter The FBI is investigating a letter containing a vial of ricin that was found last week in an airport postal office in Greenville, S.C., U.S. officials said yesterday (see GSN, July 18). No one was harmed by the toxin, which was contained in a waterproof, metal container, officials said. The airmail office in the cargo area of the airport has been closed, however, as a “precautionary” measure, a U.S. Postal service spokesman. The vial is not considered to be an act of terrorism, but instead a criminal incident, law enforcement and public health officials said. A note inside the letter said that large amounts of ricin would be dumped into U.S. drinking water supplies if a rule requiring that truck drivers rest after 10 hours on the road was not reversed, officials said. “This does not bear the mark of international terrorism,” U.S. Homeland Security Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse said (Judith Miller, New York Times, Oct. 23). Officials refused to say to whom the letter was addressed or where it had been postmarked, according to the Associated Press. A federal law enforcement official said the letter was not addressed to any government official (Associated Press/USA Today, Oct. 23). Back to top       Indian Authorities Arrest Man for Alleged Chemical Exports to Iraq A director of an Indian company was arrested last week for allegedly exporting prohibited chemicals to Iraq, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Feb. 20). Hans Raj Shiv, director of Indian NEC Engineers Private Ltd., was arrested in New Delhi upon his arrival from Ukraine, AFP reported. In February, the United States imposed sanctions against NEC Engineers and Shiv for allegedly engaging in biological and chemical weapons proliferation activities (Agence France-Presse/Space Daily, Oct. 18) Back to top       Paris Sarin Drill Shows “Improvements” Needed, Says Police Chief Paris police chief Jean-Paul Proust said today that a large-scale simulated sarin attack last night on the Paris Metro subway system yielded good results but demonstrated that “improvements” are needed (see GSN, Oct. 22). At a press conference this morning, Proust said Parisians “can be reassured” about their city’s capacity to respond to such an attack, because “they have emergency services of exceptional quality.” Proust added, though, that there is a “gap between the speed of the emergency services and the implementation of the logistics and sequence of treatment.” He said there were “difficulties” in putting up decontamination tents and a delay in treating victims but that first responders displayed “dexterity” and “good coordination,” in particular with nuclear, radiological, biological and chemical protective gear. Proust promised improvements in decontamination equipment and more training of personnel. He said a WMD unit would be created within the Paris fire department. The attack, which Proust said was of “medium importance,” caused 54 virtual casualties, including two deaths (Agence France-Presse/La Tribune, Oct. 23, GSN translation). About 500 first responders took part in the four-hour exercise, conducted at the Invalides station, near the National Assembly. “The point of this exercise is not to test the response time of the fire brigade … or the police; the aim of the exercise is, in real time, to see how all the rescue teams work together in a hostile environment, how coordination works under the Piratox emergency plan drawn up in the past year,” Proust said earlier (CNN.com, Oct. 23). Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy said 50 additional exercises are scheduled to be held next year in other major French cities. “France has lagged in this field,” Sarkozy said. “We don’t pretend to have made up all the ground. Some countries are well ahead of us,” he added. The overnight exercise was not conducted in response to any specific terrorist threat, said Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, who attended the exercise. “There is no particular threat today of chemical terrorism in France,” Raffarin said. “There are always risks ... Our duty is to be able to cope with all eventualities and not just with plans and programs on paper,” he added (John Leicester, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 23). Back to top

Next-Generation Missile Warning Satellite Expected to Launch on Schedule Despite Developmental Delays Technical problems are continuing to slow the development of the next generation of U.S. missile launch-detection satellites, but the delays will not cause significant cost overruns, Space News reported Monday (see GSN, Sept. 16). The Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS)-High will probably require tens of millions of dollars more than planned, said the satellite’s program manager Air Force Col. Mark Borkowski. That amount, however, is insignificant in comparison to the project’s total cost, Space News reported. The six-satellite constellation is intended to replace the existing missile launch-detection network, called Defense Support Program satellites. Once planned to cost $2.1 billion with a first launch in 2002, the SBIRS-High program is now expected to cost $8 billion and to put the first satellite in orbit in October 2006. Borkowski said recent technical problems would not necessarily affect the launch schedule. Current technical difficulties include a sensor that can suffer radio signal interference, software problems and other minor troubles, Borkowski said (Jeremy Singer, Space News, Oct. 20).     Back to top

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