IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei (right) met Saturday with Hassan Rohani, general secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, to discuss Tehran’s nuclear program (AFP/Getty). Iran Says Uranium Enrichment Will Stop Today Iran’s top security official has said that Tehran would suspend uranium enrichment activities today and would soon formally announce its intention to allow unannounced inspections of Iran’s nuclear activities. Hassan Rohani, general secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Russian officials in Moscow today that Iran is “temporarily suspending” uranium enrichment “from today” (see GSN, Nov. 6)...Full Story

CIA Says North Korea Has Working Nuclear Weapons In the latest public U.S. intelligence analysis of North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability, the CIA has told Congress that Pyongyang has produced “one or two simple fission-type nuclear weapons” and that the bombs can be expected to work properly even if North Korea does not test the complete systems (see GSN, Nov. 7)...Full Story

U.S. Faces Off With Other Nations on Biological Treaty By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire GENEVA — The United States has again found itself at odds with a number of friends and allies on how to strengthen international controls over biological weapons at an annual meeting here of the Biological Weapons Convention (see GSN, Aug. 13)...Full Story

	Monday, November 10, 2003

U.S. Issues Hijacking Alert The U.S. Homeland Security Department and the FBI issued an alert Friday night warning U.S. and industry officials of possible al-Qaeda efforts to hijack cargo jets in countries neighboring the United States for use in attacks against U.S. targets such as civilian nuclear power plants, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Oct. 17). The alert warns of possible al-Qaeda efforts to hijack cargo aircraft in Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, according to the Post. The warning is based on information provided by one person whose credibility has not been fully determined, according to a U.S. official. The information, however, was deemed credible enough to justify the warning, intelligence officers said (John Mintz, Washington Post, Nov. 8). Back to top

Iraqi Offer to Avoid War Was a “Trap,” Perle Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Defense Department adviser Richard Perle said yesterday that he believed that an invitation made by a group of senior Iraqi officials prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom to allow U.S. officials to enter Iraq and search for alleged weapons of mass destruction was actually an attempt to discredit the United States (see GSN, Nov. 7). The New York Times reported last week that several Iraqi officials, including the head of the Iraqi Intelligence Service, made a proposal to Washington to allow FBI agents to search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. The communication, made through Lebanese-American businessman Imad Hage, also offered to provide the United States with a man accused of involvement in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing who was being held in Iraq. The offer, which was rejected by Undersecretary of Defense Douglas Feith’s office, attracted the interest of Perle, who met with Hage in London in March and then sought and failed to obtain CIA approval to meet with the Iraqis, according to reports (see GSN, Nov. 6). During an appearance yesterday on ABC’s This Week With George Stephanopoulous, Perle said he believed the Iraqi offer, which also included oil concessions, had been an attempt to discredit the U.S. justification for war. “Suppose we had gone through this debate … and the Iraqis then, on the eve of war, had revealed discussions of oil concessions. This was a trap.  I think it was clearly a trap, it was intended to discredit the administration’s policy, it was intended to discredit our efforts to liberate Iraq,” he said. Perle also said that he did not believe the Iraqi offer had been credible and that there was no need for the Iraqis to have attempted to open backdoor communications with Washington. “There were so many discussions at the time, every government you can think of was involved in trying to broker some last minute arrangement, the French, the Russians, the Saudis, the Egyptians. They knew how to find us, the Iraqis knew how to find us,” he said. Perle also disparaged the credibility of the Iraqis themselves involved in the offer.  “Let’s be clear who we were talking about on the Iraqi side. These were the folks who ran the most vicious part of Saddam’s regime, his intelligence and security people,” he said, referring to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The fact that members of the Iraqi intelligence service were involved in the offer should have resulted in it receiving greater attention, former U.S Ambassador Richard Holbrooke said yesterday on This Week. “I would have thought that this would ride rather rapidly to the level of the secretary of defense or president. I’m not saying that this would have produced anything, but it was not another one of these shady, crazy offers. This was a guy who we are now actively searching for in the Sunni triangle, offering an indicted terrorist who killed Americans,” Holbrooke said. Perle, however, maintained his dismissal of the Iraqi proposal. “As I said, I think it was a trap, and had we shown any interest in it of the kind they were hoping for, nothing would have come from this except the discrediting of Americans,” he replied. Back to top       Iraqi Scientists Say Kay’s Report Exaggerated Colleague’s Research Several Iraqi scientists have said that a scientist described last month in an interim report by chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq David Kay as being involved in possible nuclear weapons research was actually working on advanced non-nuclear weapons, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 5). In an Oct. 2 report on the progress of the Iraq Survey Group, which is searching for evidence of alleged Iraqi WMD efforts, Kay said that Iraqi scientist Khalid Ibrahim Said had begun in 2000 “several small and relatively unsophisticated” projects that “could be applied to nuclear weapons development.” Kay also said in his report that Said was killed in April when a car carrying him “attempted to run a coalition roadblock.” Several Iraqi scientists who knew Said, however, have said that he had worked since 2000 to develop an electromagnetic or particle gun — research that was unrelated to nuclear weapons, according to AP. One scientist described Said’s research as having been “in a primitive stage,” while another said his work had been a failure. Iraqi molecular physicist Abdel Mehdi Talib, dean of sciences at Baghdad University, said Said was decades behind in current nuclear physics information. “What was Khalid, a one-man band? Playing the drums, the harmonica?” Talib said. The scientists and several witnesses also discounted Kay’s report that Said was killed as his car attempted to run a coalition roadblock, saying instead that a U.S. tank had destroyed the car without warning on an open street, according to AP. “This is a lie,” nuclear scientist Sabah Abdul Noor said of Kay’s report on Said’s death (Charles Hanley, Associated Press/Chicago Tribune, Nov. 9). Senate Leader Freezes Intelligence Committee’s Prewar Intelligence Inquiry Meanwhile, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) last week canceled all business of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, which is conducting an inquiry into prewar U.S. intelligence on Iraq, according to the Washington Post. A committee meeting that was scheduled for Friday was canceled and no meetings have been scheduled for this week, according to a senior committee staff member. Frist’s action was prompted by a leaked Democratic memo that outlined possible measures to expand the committee’s inquiry to investigate how prewar intelligence was used by the Bush administration, the Post reported. Frist called on the memo’s author to “identify himself or herself … disavow this partisan attack in its entirety” and to deliver “a personal apology” to committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas). Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence panel, said he was “really disappointed” with Frist’s action. “Whose advantage is it to derail asking the tough questions on prewar intelligence and the use and misuse of it?” he said (Pincus/Priest, Washington Post, Nov. 8). While the committee will complete its inquiry, the memo has “really poisoned the well” of bipartisan cooperation among members, Roberts said yesterday on FOX News Sunday. “We’ve had a good working relationship. But somebody has to disavow this memo, or it’s going to be very difficult to put this committee back together again,” he said (Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, Nov. 10). Back to top

Iran Says Uranium Enrichment Will Stop Today Iran’s top security official has said that Tehran would suspend uranium enrichment activities today and would soon formally announce its intention to allow unannounced inspections of Iran’s nuclear activities. Hassan Rohani, general secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Russian officials in Moscow today that Iran is “temporarily suspending” uranium enrichment “from today” (see GSN, Nov. 6). Rohani also announced that Iranian officials are delivering a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency to indicate Tehran’s willingness to sign the Additional Protocol to its nuclear safeguards agreement, which would allow the agency to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Iran’s nuclear activities (VOA News, Nov. 10). Meanwhile, the agency is expected to circulate a new report this week saying that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, as the United States has repeatedly alleged. “They don’t have any indications of a weapons program,” said a Western diplomat who follows the agency closely. There is also little chance that the agency will report Iran to the U.N. Security Council for violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, according to another diplomat (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Nov. 10). IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who met with Rohani Saturday, said Iran has given the agency “satisfactory cooperation” but has not yet provided “full transparency.” “I think we are moving together to try and resolve all remaining issues,” he said (George Jahn, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 9). Rohani said Iran will work with Russia to resolve the nuclear controversies. “On the nuclear issue, we are discussing with the Russians ways we could cooperate in the next IAEA meeting and international issues regarding the nuclear activities,” he said (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 10). U.S. intelligence officials, however, are warning that the Additional Protocol and unannounced inspections might not prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. The CIA highlighted a secret nuclear facility at Natanz that was revealed by Iranian dissidents last year. “Even with intrusive IAEA safeguards inspections at Natanz, there is a serious risk that Iran could use its enrichment technology in covert activities,” the CIA told Congress in a letter made public last weekend (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Nov. 9). Back to top       CIA Says North Korea Has Working Nuclear Weapons In the latest public U.S. intelligence analysis of North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability, the CIA has told Congress that Pyongyang has produced “one or two simple fission-type nuclear weapons” and that the bombs can be expected to work properly even if North Korea does not test the complete systems (see GSN, Nov. 7). The CIA made the assessment public in an Aug. 18 letter to Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), the chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, from CIA Congressional Affairs Director Stanley Moskowitz. Pyongyang “has validated the designs without conducting yield-producing nuclear tests,” according to the letter. The CIA noted reports of “nuclear weapons related high-explosive tests since the 1980s.” “With such tests, we assess North Korea would not require nuclear tests to validate simple fission weapons,” the letter says. Analysts agreed with the CIA assessment. “Would North Korea have to conduct a nuclear-yield test in order to have a credible deterrent? The answer is no,” said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org. The CIA letter means that the North Koreans “have got the bomb now, rather than that they will have the bomb,” he said. The CIA letter notes, however, that Pyongyang might detonate a device for political purposes. “If North Korea decided to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, conducting a nuclear test would be one option,” the CIA said (John Donnelly, Defense Week, Nov. 10). The CIA said that Pyongyang has recognized that there would be serious consequences to detonating a nuclear weapon. “A North Korean decision to conduct a nuclear test would entail risks for Pyongyang of precipitating an international backlash and further isolation. Pyongyang at this point appears to view ambiguity regarding its nuclear capabilities as providing a tactical advantage,” the letter says (CIA letter/Federation of American Scientists release, Oct. 31). A senior U.S. official noted, however, that the CIA report calls into question the possibility of ever resolving the nuclear standoff. “We may never know for sure how many weapons they manufactured and then hid away in some tunnel,” the official said. If North Korea agrees to give up its production facilities and pre-existing weapons, “how would we ever know that we’ve gotten all of it?” the official asked (David Sanger, New York Times, Nov. 9). Back to top       U.S. House of Representatives Approves Fiscal 2004 Defense Authorization Bill The U.S. House of Representatives voted 362-40 Friday in favor of the compromise fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill, which contains a provision to repeal the ban on researching low-yield nuclear weapons, according to Knight Ridder (see GSN, Nov. 7). The bill would authorize $6 million in spending for new nuclear weapons designs and $15 million to research earth-penetrating nuclear weapons. The bill would also authorize $34 million in spending to shorten the time needed to prepare the Nevada Test Site to resume nuclear testing from 24 to 36 months to 18 months (Jonathan Landay, Knight Ridder, Nov. 7). The Senate is likely to vote on the compromise defense authorization bill and a related appropriations bill within two weeks, according to the Oakland Tribune. The bill is then expected to reach U.S. President George W. Bush’s desk by the end of the month. Need for Research Explained Meanwhile, four scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory have published a study outlining a technical argument supporting the development of low-yield nuclear weapons. The study, published in the journal Comparative Strategy, says that low-yield nuclear weapons would be effective in destroying deeply buried bunkers while causing relatively low collateral damage. According to the study, a low-yield nuclear weapon employed against an underground target would use rock and soil layers to amplify the shock waves caused by the blast and to absorb the heat and radiation caused by the explosion — resulting in a weapon 10 to 50 times more effective than current nuclear weapons. “In general, you’re going to gain an order of magnitude from high precision and another order of magnitude from penetrating into the ground,” said Bryan Fearey, the lead author of the study (Ian Hoffman, Oakland Tribune, Nov. 8). Back to top

U.S. Faces Off With Other Nations on Biological Treaty By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire GENEVA — The United States has again found itself at odds with a number of friends and allies on how to strengthen international controls over biological weapons at an annual meeting here of the Biological Weapons Convention (see GSN, Aug. 13). Treaty participants are meeting this week to discuss ways to encourage nations to pass and enforce domestic rules to implement the 1972 treaty, and more specifically, to establish common measures for securing pathogenic biological agents. This week’s discussions, preceded by a two-week experts’ meeting in August, are the first part of a three-year program to review various issues related to the treaty in preparation for the next treaty review conference in 2006. The August meeting assembled documents from dozens of states describing the measures they have implemented so far and their plans for future steps. The result was “a mass of uncollated documents with no recommendations,” said Malcolm Dando, a biological weapons arms control expert from the University of Bradford. Many nations hoped this week’s session could consolidate those reports and recommend common principles to guide countries in creating and enforcing treaty implementation legislation and for establishing enhanced biosecurity measures. “In our view, the primary task of this meeting of states parties should be the adoption of an agreed final document, identifying those common elements and recommending them for national implementation,” said German Ambassador Volker Heinsberg, in comments similar to those by New Zealand, Sweden and others. “It is our desire and hope that by the end of this week we would have arrived at some common understandings on the basis of the best practices, to be pursued on a voluntary basis,” said the statement by Pakistan. U.S. Wants a Different Direction The U.S. delegation opposes those aims and instead views the conference principally as an opportunity for exchanging information and encouraging states to take action at home regarding specific issues. “We do not believe we should try to negotiate an agreement by the parties at this annual meeting on sets of ‘common elements’ or ‘best practices’ relating to national implementing measures and/or biosecurity,” said U.S. delegation leader Ambassador Donald Mahley. He said the conference should produce two outcomes: a determination to review, update or implement national measures and a commitment to help treaty parties meet their obligations. “Any attempt to negotiate common elements will only serve to distract states from acting sovereignly now, when it is necessary,” Mahley said. He further urged the assembled nations to abandon the “common elements” goal at future annual meetings. “The United States believes that if future work program topics are to be successful, as were those of 2003, the focus of the limited time for those programs should remain on the preapproved topics and should not attempt to reprise, report on, or revisit the 2003 work program, however important we find that work to be,” Mahley said. Parties “now understand well enough what has to be done with regard to national implementation and biosecurity measures,” he said. Some close U.S. allies, including Canada and the United Kingdom, have not weighed in on the debate. Back to top       Washington-Area Postal Facilities Reopen After Anthrax Scare By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Postal Service has reopened 11 Washington-area postal facilities after an anthrax scare last week at a U.S. Navy mail-handling facility prompted their closure (see GSN, Nov. 7). Preliminary tests of routine air samples taken last week at the Naval Consolidated Mail Facility in Washington tested positive for anthrax. Those preliminary results prompted the Postal Service to close 11 facilities in the Washington area that delivered mail to the Navy site — 10 neighborhood post offices and a mail-handling facility that processed mail addressed to the U.S. government — out of what postal officials described as “an abundance of caution.” The Postal Service announced Friday night that additional laboratory testing of Navy samples indicated no presence of anthrax. Those tests were conducted by the Navy Medical Research Center in Silver Spring, MD., the agency said in a press statement. The Washington Post Saturday quoted a Navy spokesman as saying that the tests conducted by the Navy Medical Research Center were “much more refined” than the preliminary tests. A postal spokesman told Global Security Newswire today that preliminary tests conducted on the 11 closed facilities have also come back negative for anthrax and that those facilities have reopened. He said that since the 2001 anthrax attacks it has become standard operating procedure to evacuate postal facilities once anthrax contamination is suspected. “Better safe than sorry,” the spokesman said. U.S. Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Chairwoman Susan Collins (R-Maine), whose committee oversees the Postal Service, praised the agency Friday for its prompt reaction to the anthrax scare. “Unfortunately, this incident also shows how vulnerable we still are to bioterrorist attacks. Now more than ever, it is essential that we work to fill the gaps in our nation’s defense and surveillance systems against bioterrorism,” she said in a press statement. Back to top       FBI Agents Testify in Texas Tech University Professor’s Trial An FBI agent testified last week that he believed that Texas Tech University professor Thomas Butler was lying about stolen plague sample from his laboratory from almost the onset of the bureau’s investigation into the incident, according to Washington Times (see GSN, Oct. 28). Butler is currently on trial for nearly 70 felony counts, including charges of making misleading statements to FBI agents stemming from a January incident in which Butler reported that 30 vials of plague samples were missing and presumed stolen from his university laboratory. Butler later signed a statement, however, saying that he had actually destroyed the vials and had misled federal agents. If convicted, Butler could be sentenced to almost 470 years in prison. Last week, government witnesses testified that they suspected from almost the beginning of the investigation that Butler had lied. FBI agent Dale Green testified that several entries in Butler’s laboratory notebook appeared to be contrived, the Times reported. “He’s trying to convince the reader, rather than convey information,” Green said. “It’s a clear flag of deception to me,” he added. Green also said that investigators initially relied on Butler for guidance in their search for the missing samples, and that Butler appeared to enjoy the attention. “He said that this kind of plague could be weaponized into a weapon of mass destruction within a 48-hour period and that it would kill everyone in the area,” Green said (Hugh Aynesworth, Washington Times, Nov. 10). Back to top       U.S. Health Officials Plan to Rank States’ Bioterrorism Preparations The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will soon begin grading states on their efforts to prepare for bioterrorist attacks and other public health emergencies, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Oct. 16). U.S. health officials are still determining how to measure public health readiness levels and hope to have a prototype scoring system in place by January. Officials are planning to implement the grading system by next summer. The level of a state’s preparedness, however, could vary greatly depending on the threat, according to Brian Strom of the University of Pennsylvania. Strom chaired an Institute of Medicine committee that reviewed the CDC’s plans last week. A smallpox terrorist attack remains one of the primary fears of CDC officials. The CDC has told states to prepare to vaccinate all residents within 10 days if terrorists stage a smallpox attack. Joseph Henderson, chief of the CDC’s bioterrorism preparedness effort, praised Florida for storing the smallpox vaccine in every country to allow for faster dispersal. States need to be ready to immunize residents shortly after officials detect an attack, he said. “Once you see it anywhere, you have to start to ramp up,” Henderson said. “We’re committed to this,” he added (Lauran Neergaard, Associated Press/Washington Post, Nov. 10). Back to top

Sarin Alarm Sounded at Anniston Chemical Weapons Disposal Site Officials at the Anniston chemical weapons incinerator in Alabama evacuated the facility Friday after sensors detected sarin gas in a room that was not supposed to contain the deadly agent (see GSN, Oct. 30). The alarm rang early Friday morning and workers were evacuated from the 11-room building, according to Donavan Mager, a spokesman for Westinghouse Anniston, the contractor running the facility for the Army. The sarin was detected in a room used for sensor maintenance and facility officials said that no workers were exposed to the gas. The plant manager is now leading an investigation to determine how the sarin appeared in the room. “It’s something we’ll, hopefully, uncover in the next few days,” Mager said. At 8 a.m. Friday — about seven hours after the sarin was detected — the Anniston plant began a rigorous test burn process to prove that it can safely handle the chemical weapons destruction process (Katherine Bouma, Birmingham News, Nov. 8). Back to top

United States Wary of Iranian Missile Statement The United States has reacted cautiously to a recent Iranian statement that Tehran has no plans to develop the Shahab 4 long-range ballistic missile, Agence France-Press reported Friday (see GSN, Nov. 5). “The comments are a reiteration of previous assertions that it [Iran] will not embark on the production of the Shahab 4 missile,” U.S. State Department Richard Boucher said. “It remains unclear what tangible effect this will have on Iranian missile development,” he said. “We’ll just have to see whether it becomes a positive development or not, in terms of what the Iranians actually do,” Boucher added (Agence France-Presse/IranMania.com, Nov. 7). Back to top

MDA Selects Orbital Booster for GMD Program The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has selected defense contractor Orbital Sciences to provide the missile interceptor booster rockets for an initial deployment of 10 Ground-based Midcourse Defense interceptors by October 2004, the Defense Department announced Friday (see GSN, Oct. 24). MDA has decided to use the “proven boost vehicle” developed by Orbital because of manufacturing accidents that occurred earlier this year at a missile propellant mixing facility in California, the Pentagon said (see GSN, Aug. 14). A competing booster being developed by defense contractor Lockheed Martin used propellant prepared at the facility. As a result of the accidents, MDA will use the Orbital booster to ensure that 10 ground-based interceptors are deployed on schedule at Fort Greeley, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Pentagon said. MDA has also decided to use at least four Orbital boosters for planned GMD flight tests, according to the Pentagon. Two integrated flight tests using the Orbital booster are scheduled to be conducted from the Kwajalein Atoll early next year. Lockheed Martin is scheduled to conduct a flight test of its booster from Vandenberg Air Force Base later this year. Despite the decision, “MDA remains committed to a dual-booster strategy,” the Pentagon said in a press release. In addition, the accidents at the propellant mixing facility affected several additional missile defense programs, including the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, a ground-based interceptor currently begin developed for the Army and the Standard Missile 3 sea-based interceptor. MDA has determined that the first THAAD intercept test scheduled for 2005 will be unaffected, but there could be a delay of a few months for the first THAAD flight test, scheduled to be held next year (U.S. Defense Department release, Nov. 7). Back to top       Japanese Missile Defense Plans Stall Japanese plans to acquire missile defense capabilities have been pre-empted by concerns over the dispatch of soldiers to Iraq, recent parliamentary elections and a lack of military consensus on the direction of missile defense purchases, the Japan Times reported Saturday (see GSN, Sept. 2). In August, the Japanese Defense Agency announced plans to seek $1.3 billion for missile defense efforts in fiscal 2004. Agency officials said that the National Security Council would hold meetings on the effort before the funding request became official, but those meetings do not appear imminent and the draft budget must be finalized by the end of the year, according to the Times. “Time is pressing,” a senior Defense Agency official said. “To squeeze out the cost for missile defense from the 5 trillion yen [$46 billion] defense budget means we have to decide on a major course for national security policy,” the official added (Nao Shimoyachi, Japan Times, Nov. 8).   Back to top

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