Former Assistant Secretary of Defense J.D. Crouch yesterday outlined new roles for U.S. strategic forces (Defense Department). Strategic Forces Needed to Deter Escalation of Conflicts Started by U.S., Ex-Bush Official Says By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Citing this year’s invasion of Iraq, a recently retired Bush administration official said yesterday the United States could increasingly be the “initiator” of military conflict in the future and that current efforts to revise U.S. strategic forces should help make that possible...Full Story

China Outlines National Nonproliferation Policies By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — China today released an eight-page “white paper” detailing its nonproliferation policies and the efforts it has made over the past several years both domestically and internationally to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction and related technologies (see GSN, Dec. 2)...Full Story

Citing Future Threat, Former UNSCOM No. 2 Endorses Iraq War By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A defense expert who spent seven years as the No. 2 U.N. inspector in Iraq said here yesterday that the United States was right to invade Iraq this year even though President Saddam Hussein’s government appears to have had none of the banned weapons Washington cited as a major justification for war...Full Story

North Korean Talks Might Be Delayed Six-nation talks on the North Korean nuclear crisis — tentatively planned for this month — might be delayed until next year, U.S. and Asian officials said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 2)...Full Story

	Wednesday, December 3, 2003

Strategic Forces Needed to Deter Escalation of Conflicts Started by U.S., Ex-Bush Official Says By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Citing this year’s invasion of Iraq, a recently retired Bush administration official said yesterday the United States could increasingly be the “initiator” of military conflict in the future and that current efforts to revise U.S. strategic forces should help make that possible. Strategic forces could be used to discourage other countries from using weapons of mass destruction in defense against the United States, said J.D. Crouch, who last month left his job as assistant secretary of defense for international security policy, in which he was a leading advocate of the war on Iraq and of developing new nuclear weapons capabilities for new roles. Crouch was speaking at an Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis conference here along with other former and current Bush administration officials. Reverse Extended Deterrence Crouch said the United States in the future may need to apply a concept he called “reverse extended deterrence,” which he said could involve discouraging a country attacked by the United States from using a weapon of mass destruction in defense. He contrasted that to a Cold War-era “responsive deterrence” approach, which threatened nuclear escalation to discourage Soviet aggression. “We are going to be in the position increasingly in the future where we are having to deter while we are defeating a country,” he said. He cited the Iraq case, “where we were the one to take the initiative.” “We are the one who may well be threatening the survival of a particular regime, and it seems to me that is a very different situation than the one we had during the Cold War … where the most difficult step in a way was the one that would have to be taken by the initiator. The future world may be one in which we are the initiator,” he said. Crouch, who has returned to his teaching post at Southwest Missouri State University, said the administration’s definition of strategic capabilities includes nuclear, conventional, space, information and missile defense forces, and added that new nuclear capabilities are “probably” needed. Logical Extension Joseph Cirincione, a prominent critic of the Bush administration policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the Bush administration’s emphasis on threatening or using U.S. force to accomplish its aims appears to be taking the country in the direction Crouch described. “The logical extension of this unilateralist policy that relies on military force as its chief instrument is a vision of the world where the U.S. is going around starting wars in the name of peace,” he said. He called the approach unrealistic and unnecessary. “The absurdity of this theory becomes apparent when you ask this simple question: Who are the principle targets of this policy? Are we going to attack North Korea first, Iran, who else is there? African nations?  Are we talking about China?” he said. “States are still deterred by the overwhelming military power of the United States,” he said. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton, addressing the conference earlier, restated a U.S. warning to alleged WMD proliferators. Forces Intended for Peace Speaking just prior to Crouch, the man in charge of U.S. strategic forces, Navy Admiral James Ellis, appeared to offer a different vision for the role of U.S. strategic forces than that expressed by Crouch. Ellis said they were intended, and could be effective, as deterrent forces. “I do not subscribe to the theory that new threats cannot be deterred. … We must also arm ourselves with a complete set of tools more suited to the task of deterrence in the challenging world of this new millennium,” he said. “The old SAC [Strategic Air Command] motto still hangs over the door of my headquarters, “Peace is our profession,” he said. “As our command has evolved, we have certainly retained that as our goal,” he said.  Ellis said strategic forces were being adapted to provide capabilities necessary for deterring the types of threats the United States may face in the future. Asked to comment on Crouch’s remarks, though, Ellis said the military must prepare for every contingency. “Given that we can’t predict the future, just as we cannot predict accurately the success or lack thereof with regard to deterrence concepts in and of themselves, I think it would behoove us to hedge our bets against an alternative future which may not be the one we anticipate,” he said. Keith Payne, who also recently left his administration position as deputy assistant secretary of defense for force policy, gave the conference an alternative scenario to the one presented by Crouch. “In the future, it may well be that the United States is compelled to deter escalation by a regional aggressor as the United States is confronting that aggressor on its own territory. That’s not initiating conflict, that’s trying to deter an aggressor from escalating while we are possibly protecting our allies and our interests.” New Nuclear Capabilities Crouch said the United States could require a broader range of nuclear capabilities to deter potential adversaries in the future, saying the deterrence challenge will likely be more complex than it was against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. “We need to question whether or not the kinds of things we might need for nuclear capabilities to deter in the future are really dealt with, with the arsenal that we have today,” he said. He said the administration’s 2002 Nuclear Posture Review of which he was a principal architect, concluded that “deterrence is not the only goal.” He said other purposes for strategic weapons, namely for assuring strategic allies, dissuading potential competitors and defeating adversaries if deterrence fails, should more greatly drive the strategic force composition. Crouch pointed to increased emphasis on lower-yield nuclear weapons, the destructive power of which might be tailored. The strategic community needs to consider establishing “some metrics beyond what we saw for strategic capability” during the Cold War, he said. Back to top       China Outlines National Nonproliferation Policies By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — China today released an eight-page “white paper” detailing its nonproliferation policies and the efforts it has made over the past several years both domestically and internationally to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction and related technologies (see GSN, Dec. 2). The paper was released shortly before a planned visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to the United States, which is scheduled for Dec. 7-13. A U.S. State Department official suggested today to Global Security Newswire that the paper’s release might have been intended to help improve U.S.-Chinese relations before Wen’s visit. In the paper, China reiterated its strong opposition to weapons of mass destruction. “China has always taken a responsible attitude toward international affairs, stood for the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of all kinds of WMD, including nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, and resolutely opposed the proliferation of such weapons and their means of delivery. China does not support, encourage or assist any country to develop WMD and their means of delivery,” the paper says. China called for “universal participation” in international nonproliferation efforts, with a significant role given to the United Nations, to ensure the creation of a “fair, rational and nondiscriminatory” international nonproliferation regime. “Unilateralism and double standards must be abandoned,” the paper says. In a veiled swipe at the U.S. invasion of Iraq, which the Bush administration justified in part by citing Baghdad’s suspected efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction, China also said that international nonproliferation goals have to be achieved through “peaceful means.” “Proliferation issues must be settled through dialogue and international cooperation,” the paper says. It also notes Chinese concern over the controversy surrounding Iran’s nuclear efforts. While Tehran has claimed that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, the United States has argued that it is a cover for nuclear weapons development (see GSN, Dec. 1). “China maintains that, while it is necessary to guarantee the rights of all countries, especially the developing nations, to utilize and share dual-use scientific and technological achievements and products for peaceful purposes subject to full compliance with the nonproliferation goal, it is also necessary to prevent any country from engaging in proliferation under the pretext of peaceful utilization,” the paper says. Chinese Nonproliferation Efforts Today’s release describes in detail China’s participation over the last several years in international nonproliferation efforts, saying that Beijing has signed “all international treaties related to nonproliferation and joined most of the relevant organizations,” such as the International Atomic Energy Agency. The paper also notes China’s participation in the discussions leading up to the establishment of the Hague Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation last year — an agreement that Beijing ultimately chose not to join (see GSN, July 2). In addition, China has “energetically supported efforts by countries to establish nuclear weapons-free zones, the paper says. For example, China was the first nuclear weapon state to support a five-nation, Central Asian nuclear weapon-free zone treaty (see GSN, Oct. 7). The paper also outlines China’s progress in establishing national export control systems governing the transfer of WMD- and ballistic missile-related goods, including the creation of an export licensing system, end-use certification regulations and export control lists that are “generally the same” as those developed by multilateral export control regimes, such as the Australia Group, which covers dual-use biological and chemical exports, and the Missile Technology Control Regime (see GSN, Sept. 30). China also said today that its transition from a state-planned economy to a more market-based approach has had an impact on its national export control regulations, moving them from a system of “administrative control” to one of “law-based control.” In several instances throughout the white paper, Beijing emphasized its commitment to enforcing its national export control regulations and to punishing violators. “The Chinese government attaches great importance to the investigation and handling of cases of law violations relating to nonproliferation,” the paper says. The U.S. Embassy in Beijing praised China’s nonproliferation efforts, according to the Associated Press. “We welcome efforts by China to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, missiles, conventional weapons and related materials and technologies through stricter export control regulations,” AP quoted an embassy press statement as saying. The State Department official also said, though, that Washington continues to have issues with the behavior of some Chinese entities and hopes that China will continue to work to improve its enforcement of its national export control regulations (see GSN, Oct. 21).  Over the past year, the United States has sanctioned a number of Chinese companies, in some instances multiple times, for alleged illegal exports of WMD- and missile-related items (see GSN, Nov. 24). In addition, a CIA assessment of the WMD threat posed by countries of concern released last month said the “proliferation behavior of some Chinese companies remains of great concern” (see GSN, Nov. 11). Back to top       Citing Future Threat, Former UNSCOM No. 2 Endorses Iraq War By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A defense expert who spent seven years as the No. 2 U.N. inspector in Iraq said here yesterday that the United States was right to invade Iraq this year even though President Saddam Hussein’s government appears to have had none of the banned weapons Washington cited as a major justification for war. “It will probably turn out … that there are no existing weapons in Iraq,” said Charles Duelfer, former deputy executive chairman of the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq. Speaking at a Brookings Institution briefing after recently returning from a visit to Iraq, he said other long-serving inspectors have come to the same “mildly surprising” conclusion. Duelfer said the United States was justified in overthrowing Iraq’s government because of “long-term” calculations of “costs and benefits.” Hussein, he said, was seeking to “outlast” the weapons inspection regime in his country by maintaining WMD capabilities that would have constituted “an unacceptable threat in the future.” U.S. President George W. Bush “made a correct strategic decision … that this regime had to change,” said Duelfer, who is now based at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars. Bush critics who say inspections were working in Iraq, he added, fail to recognize that certain “conditions” pertinent to the matter ― such as the U.N. Security Council’s will to sustain sanctions against Baghdad ― were not “sustainable” over the long term. Duelfer likened Hussein’s policy on information about weapons of mass destruction to that of Israel, which has long refused to acknowledge or deny that is possesses nuclear weapons. “Saddam, the regime, was intentionally ambiguous ― in some ways like Israel,” said Duelfer. Hussein’s government frequently cited nuclear-armed Israel as an implicit justification for Iraqi WMD programs, he said, but at the same time told the United Nations it was complying with international demands to disarm. During a two-year absence of U.N. inspectors that began with the withdrawal of UNSCOM in late 1998, Duelfer said, there was debate within the Iraqi government about whether to resume weapon production. Some Iraqi officials, Duelfer said, stressed the utility of Baghdad’s WMD capability, which had been useful in waging the Iraq-Iran war and in dissuading the United States in 1991 from toppling the government. Others, he said, argued that refraining from producing banned weapons could lead to a permanent U.N. withdrawal. The latter group appears to have won the argument, according to Duelfer. “It appears that they really did put the nuclear program on ice. … In terms of actually producing weapons during the period of two years, evidently, they were not producing them,” he said. Back to top       South African Port Joins Container Security Initiative The South African port of Durban has joined the U.S. Container Security Initiative, U.S. and South African officials announced yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 21). Under the program, U.S. Customs agents will be stationed in South Africa to screen high-risk shipments to the United States for weapons of mass destruction. Durban is the 17th international port to join the initiative. “By implementing the Container Security Initiative, the government of South Africa is helping to make a safer, more secure world trading system,” said Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Robert Bonner. “CSI is essential in securing an indispensable, but vulnerable link in the chain of global trade, containerized shipping,” he added (Jerry Seper, Washington Times, Dec. 3). Back to top       German Court Sentences U.S. Businessman in Supergun Smuggling Trial A German court has sentenced U.S. businessman Sahib Abd al-Amir al-Haddad to about five years in prison for violations of German export control laws, the Associated Press reported last week (see GSN, Sept. 8). Al-Haddad, who was born in Iraq, was convicted for his role in a 1999 shipment of drills to Iraq that could have been used to help produce a “supergun” capable of firing WMD shells (Associated Press/New York Times, Nov. 29). Back to top       Russian Security Council to Hold Nonproliferation Meeting Today Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected today to hold a meeting of the Russian Security Council to discuss nonproliferation issues, according to ITAR-Tass (see GSN, Nov. 26). The meeting is expected to discuss “to what extent Russian legislation, domestic organization of work and cooperation with other countries as well as international control in this sphere meet the interests of national security,” council Deputy Secretary Oleg Chernov said. Chernov also said that Russia plans to review its WMD disposal efforts, which often include foreign assistance. “Foreign aid often turns into a lever of pressure on our country,” Chernov said (ITAR-Tass, Dec. 3). Back to top

North Korean Talks Might Be Delayed Six-nation talks on the North Korean nuclear crisis — tentatively planned for this month — might be delayed until next year, U.S. and Asian officials said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 2). The Chinese government, which will host the talks, has proposed that the parties agree on a statement that will outline the negotiations before they start. Washington and Pyongyang remain deadlocked, however, over the timing of North Korea scrapping its nuclear weapons development and the issuance of a U.S. nonaggression guarantee. Negotiators have also had trouble with a U.S. demand for thorough inspections in North Korea. The United States is “prepared to provide a written document on security assurances to Pyongyang with other participants in the talks,” U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said yesterday. “Such assurances can only be provided, however, in the context of agreement and implementation of an effective verification regime,” he added. Washington has not decided at what point it would offer the nonaggression pact to Pyongyang, the Washington Post reported (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Dec. 3). Back to top

Pentagon Smallpox Immunizations Run Better Than Anthrax Program, GAO Finds By David McGlinchey Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Defense Department has run its smallpox vaccination program better than its anthrax vaccination program, according to a General Accounting Office report released yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 18). In September 2002, the GAO reported on the limited availability of the anthrax vaccine and a general frustration among military personnel with the information provided about the program. By comparison, the Pentagon smoothed the progress of its smallpox vaccination program “by ensuring the availability of the vaccine and educating its personnel … both those who administered the vaccine and those who received it.” The Pentagon began smallpox vaccinations in January inoculated more than 500,000 medical and support personnel in the first 10 months of the program. The anthrax vaccine became mandatory five years ago, and at least 37 members of the armed forces have been court-martialed for refusing the inoculation (see GSN, May 29). “To ease concerns about receiving the smallpox vaccine, commanding officers received training materials in advance and presented information to potential vaccinees before the vaccination process began,” the report said. The Pentagon also focused on limiting the amount of wasted vaccine, according to the GAO. Officers told the GAO investigators that the education and waste management efforts were put in place to avoid problems the Pentagon encountered with the anthrax program. Back to top       Justice Department Asks Federal Judge to Block Hatfill Lawsuit The U.S. Justice Department has requested a federal judge block a lawsuit filed by former U.S. Army biologist Steven Hatfill, who has been the public focus of the FBI’s investigation into the 2001 anthrax attacks. Hatfill has charged the department with, among other things, violating his constitutional rights to privacy, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Sept. 2). The department has asked U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton to stop Hatfill’s privacy violation claims while the department works to have most of Hatfill’s other allegations dismissed, according to the Post. In a declaration filed last month, FBI supervisor Richard Lambert said the release of information on the bureau’s effort to find the culprit of the 2001 anthrax mailings could damage the investigation and reveal information about U.S. biological defenses. Attorneys for Hatfill yesterday, however, criticized the Justice Department’s efforts, noting that it was Attorney General John Ashcroft who had publicly labeled Hatfill a “person of interest” in the investigation. “It was Mr. Ashcroft, not Mr. Hatfill, who decided to speak publicly about investigators’ interest in Mr. Hatfill,” attorney Thomas Connolly wrote in court papers filed yesterday. “Now, however — now that they have been called to answer for their illegal actions — the defendants suddenly express grave concern for the secrecy and integrity of the investigation they themselves turned into one of the premier media circuses of 2002-2003,” Connolly wrote (Carol Lenning, Washington Post, Dec. 3). Meanwhile, FBI surveillance of Hatfill has decreased in recent weeks, according to law enforcement officials and a person close to Hatfill. The law enforcement officials said, however, that the reduced surveillance did not indicate a lessening of interest in Hatfill (Curt Anderson, Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, Dec. 3). Back to top

Belize Joins Chemical Weapons Convention Belize submitted its instrument of accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention on Monday (see GSN, Oct. 14). The country will become the 158th party to the treaty when its accession takes effect Dec. 31 (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons release, Dec. 3). Back to top

U.S. Drinking Water System Vulnerable to Terrorism, Experts Say By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A national panel of experts has warned that several components of U.S. drinking water systems are vulnerable to terrorist attacks, according to a U.S. General Accounting Office report released yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 4). In its report, the GAO warned that U.S. drinking water systems could be the target of several types of terrorist attacks, including attacks using biological and chemical agents. To help water utilities better defend against acts of terrorism, Congress has allocated more than $100 million through fiscal 2004 to conduct vulnerability assessments and to develop security response plans. A panel of 43 national experts convened by the GAO found that several “key physical assets” of drinking water systems were especially vulnerable to terrorist attacks. One of the components most cited by experts, the report says, was the distribution system — the network of pipes that carry water supplies from treatment plants and storage facilities to individual homes. The distribution system was seen as being especially exposed because of numerous accessibility points and because the addition of a biological, chemical or radiological agent could go undetected until it was too late because water at that point is close to being transferred to consumers, the report says. In addition to distribution systems, experts also listed source water supplies and utility computer systems as also being susceptible to attack, the report says. It notes, however, that some experts said that source water supplies may be less vulnerable to acts of contamination because of the large amounts of water involved and because the water is treated before being transferred to consumers. Another water system component cited by some experts as a possible terrorist target is the treatment chemicals used at facilities, such as chloride, according to the report. Who Should Get Security Funding? In addition to determining system vulnerabilities, the expert panel was asked to determine how future federal funding should be allocated to improve security at water utilities throughout the country, according to the report. Almost 90 percent of the experts felt that future funding should be allocated on the basis of vulnerability assessments. Some experts warned, however, that any effort to base funding on perceived risk levels could lead officials to determine that protecting water systems should be low priority, the report says. The report also says that almost all of the experts on the panel felt that water utilities serving high-density populations should receive very high priority in funding. Experts also said that water utilities serving “critical assets,” such as military bases or key governmental institutions, should also receive high funding priority. In contrast, “relatively few experts recommended priority for utilities serving rural or isolated populations,” the report says. About 5 percent of the panel believed these systems should be given an increased priority in funding, however, because of a lack of resources. In a press statement Monday, Senator Jim Jeffords (I-Vt.), ranking minority member on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, said that Congress had a “responsibility” to ensure the safety of U.S. drinking water systems. “This report indicates that our nation’s drinking water supplies remain vulnerable from both man-made and natural disasters. Many of us take safe drinking water for granted, and this report shows that we shouldn’t,” Jeffords said. Back to top       South African Police Recover Stolen Iridium South African police today announced that they had recovered a stolen quantity of iridium isotope, according to the South African Press Association (see GSN, Dec. 1). The material, stolen in October, was found at a scrapyard in the city of Germiston, police Superintendent Piet van Deventer said (South African Press Association/news24.com, Dec. 3).   Back to top

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