U.S. Public Would Oppose Bush Nuke Policies If They Knew, Poll Suggests

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A strong majority of the U.S. public appears at odds with core elements of the Bush administration’s strategic weapons and nonproliferation policies, recent polling suggests.

The polling also suggests, though, that Americans are largely unaware that some of those policies are in play, and are generally ill-informed about other basic details of such policies.

The nationwide poll of 1,311 randomly selected respondents was conducted last month by the social science and market research firm Knowledge Networks. The Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) of the University of Maryland presented an analysis in a report yesterday titled “Americans on WMD Proliferation.”

The data suggests that there is a significant disparity between the administration’s policies and the public will that is to some degree not recognized by the public, said John Steinbruner, director of the university’s Center for International and Security Studies, which jointly runs the PIPA program.

That suggests an opportunity for the likely Democratic nominee for president, Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.), to appeal to voters with criticism of incumbent President George W. Bush’s strategic and nonproliferation policies, he said.

Steinbruner conceded that the Bush administration might conclude from the data that it can pursue such policies without significant damage to Bush’s political standing. He said, though, “it would be foolhardy” to assume that would remain the case.

Bush at a press conference earlier this week, said, “As to whether or not I make decisions based upon polls, I don’t. I just don’t make decisions that way.”

With reference to public concern about instability in Iraq, he said, “If I tried to fine tune my messages based upon polls, I think I’d be pretty ineffective.”

PIPA Director Steve Kull said in an interview today, though, that there is evidence the administration has sought to portray itself as more multilateral-oriented in the interest of political expediency, for instance, by seeking foreign contributions to operations in Iraq and efforts to engage the United Nations.

“I don’t know that the administration is feeling all that confident about the electoral outcome, so they can’t just brush this off,” he said.

The report says an overwhelming percentage of the public prefers using multilateral arms control rather than military force to deal with proliferation.

It says 83 percent of respondents favored coordinating with other countries, rather than using force, as an “important principle for U.S. foreign policy” for pursuing U.S. interests.

In line with that general conclusion, the data shows that very large majorities of Americans disagree with the administration stances of opposing an inspections mechanism for the Biological Weapons Convention (92 percent), ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (87 percent), and negotiation of a treaty to ban weapon in space (74 percent).

Bush administration officials have said they are pursuing a mix of approaches for addressing proliferation, which includes selective support of some arms control regimes, multilateral diplomacy and the threat of force.

The administration, however, has been criticized for selective support of arms control measures, and for arguing that force should be allowable against states seeking unconventional weapons if they are deemed a future threat — the primary justification for invading Iraq last year.

The administration also has been criticized for avoiding arms control approaches that might constrain U.S. power. 

For instance, a majority would prefer deep cuts in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and opposes the idea of dismantling rather than destroying U.S. and Russian nuclear arms, according to the survey.

Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin, with the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, agreed to take out of service but not destroy all but 2,200 strategic nuclear warheads by 2012.

A majority supported reaffirmation of the U.S. commitment against using nuclear weapons on non-nuclear states (84 percent), even in response to a chemical or biological weapons attack. U.S. officials for more than 10 years have implied nuclear weapons might be used in such a case, while also stating an intention to abide by the commitment.

A majority (59 percent) also said the United States does not need to develop new types of nuclear weapons, including low-yield ones, while 38 percent said it does. Basic research and development is being pursued by the administration, after it pressed Congress last year to lift a ban (see related GSN story today).

A large majority (68 percent) also favored continued research on missile defense until it is proven effective, while only small percentages favor building a system right away (21 percent) or not building one at all (8 percent), the report said.

A sizable percentage (41 percent), a level not seen for 10 years, also said the United States spends too much on defense, it said. The same percentage, though, said the amount spent is about right.

The report says that majorities of Americans appear unaware that the United States is currently pursuing some nonproliferation policies they largely oppose.

Three-quarters who responded believe that the United States supports a BWC inspection regime and a majority assumes that the United States is a member of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the data showed. The United States is a signatory but has not ratified.

Most polled also appeared ill-informed about other basic details that are not particular to Bush administration, according to the report. 

For instance, they appeared largely unaware that the United States made a commitment by ratifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to move toward nuclear weapons disarmament and greatly underestimated the number of operationally available strategic nuclear warheads, guessing a median of 200 weapons, as opposed to 6,000.

“The U.S. public does not appear to understand major features of the U.S. [nuclear weapons] deployment … the numbers or the operational practices [regarding those weapons], or major features of policy central to the issue of nonproliferation control,” Steinbruner said.

It “raises broader questions about the functioning of democracy and how the media is reporting these things,” said Kull.

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