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China Working to Modernize, Increase Its Ballistic Missile Forces, Pentagon Says By Mike Nartker WASHINGTON — China is continuing to modernize and increase its ballistic missile arsenal, and may deploy up to 60 ICBMs capable of hitting targets in the United States by the end of the decade, the U.S. Defense Department stated last week in an annual report to Congress (see GSN, July 31, 2003). Over the past year, China has increased its short-range ballistic missile arsenal from an estimated 450 missiles to 500, the report says, adding that Beijing’s focus on short-range missiles indicates that its arsenal of such systems is likely to “increase substantially” over the next few years. China is also continuing efforts to develop conventionally armed medium-range ballistic missiles, and probably will deploy such missiles “in the near future,” the report says. China continues to modernize its arsenal of nuclear-capable ICBMs, according to the report. It says that Beijing is working to replace its estimated 20 CSS-4 Mod 1 ICBMs with a longer-range variant, and it is continuing development of the DF-31 ICBM, which is expected to begin deployment by the end of the decade. China is also working to develop two extended-range variants of the DF-31 — a solid-propellant, mobile ICBM — and the JL-2 solid-propellant submarine-launched ballistic missile, the report says. The JL-2 is expected to be deployed on a new ballistic missile submarine by 2010. China could have 30 ICBMs capable of hitting the United States by next year, and 60 by 2010, the report states. In addition, China is continuing efforts to develop a cruise missile that can be fired from land, and could establish units armed with such systems by 2010, according to the report. The Pentagon report also says that China currently lacks the capability to attack satellite systems, such as those that may be used in a U.S. missile defense system, short of using a ballistic missile armed with a nuclear weapon. However, China is working to develop antisatellite measures, such as small attack satellites and ground-based lasers, the report says. “China’s current level of interest in laser technology suggests that it is reasonable to assume Beijing eventually could develop a weapon to destroy satellites,” it says. China on Tuesday said the U.S. report was based on an outdated Cold War-era mentality that viewed Beijing as a threat. During a Chinese Foreign Ministry press briefing, spokesman Liu Jianchao said that China’s national military policy is defense-oriented. The Pentagon’s projections of the development of China’s missile forces are similar to those made in previous years, Wade Boese of the Arms Control Association said yesterday, adding that this year’s report contained “nothing new or surprising.” He said that China’s “deliberate and steady” military modernization effort reflects a belief that little has changed in its threat assessments over the past year. “Beijing sees a need to make its deterrent force more survivable, but it apparently is also in no great rush because it has not accelerated the modernization program,” Boese said. Robert Norris of the Natural Resources Defense Council said today that the report was valuable for providing a “snapshot” of the progress China has made to date in its military modernization efforts. China’s efforts to develop land-attack cruise missiles could pose a risk, Boese said, if Beijing were to export such systems abroad. He also said, though, that China’s interest in joining the Missile Technology Control Regime — a 33-nation group that agrees to implement similar export controls on missile technology — could lead Beijing to restrain from conducting land-attack cruise missile exports. “With China exploring possible MTCR membership, I would suspect that China would be on its best behavior when it comes to missile exports during the foreseeable future,” Boese said. According to reports, Chinese and MTCR officials during talks this week in Beijing expressed support for China joining the regime (see GSN, Feb. 5). “China reiterated its willingness to join the MTCR” during the talks, Liu was quoted as saying today by Agence France-Presse. He also said that regime officials “expressed that the MTCR would give positive consideration to China’s application.” Military StrategyChina’s short- and medium-term military modernization efforts are being conducted with a focus on preparing for a possible conflict with Taiwan, according to the report. While China has publicly sought a peaceful reunification with Taiwan, the Pentagon report notes that Beijing has not foresworn the use of force against the island and has indicated several situations that might prompt an invasion. Those include a formal declaration of independence or Taiwan’s obtaining of nuclear weapons. As part of its military options, China could use its short-range ballistic missile arsenal, which is deployed in the Nanjing Military Region directly opposite from Taiwan, to destroy leadership facilities, military bases and communication nodes there “with minimal advanced warning,” the report says. It also warns that China could use its short-range missiles to attack U.S. bases on the island of Okinawa. After witnessing the devastating U.S. air campaigns during the 1991 Gulf War and subsequent conflicts, China is working to defend its missile facilities and other military sites from aerial attack by placing them in expanded underground facilities, the report says. Chinese military strategists have also examined the potential use of an unsophisticated nuclear weapon to generate a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse to damage enemy communication, radar and sensor systems, it says. For its part, the Taiwanese government yesterday proposed a special budget of more than $18 billion to purchase U.S. weapons systems, the sale of which was approved in 2001. The special budget includes more than $4 billion to purchase six Patriot missile interceptor batteries, according to reports (see GSN, April 16). In addition, U.S. Maj. Gen. John Allen, an aide to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, is expected to visit Taiwan next month. Allen would be the most senior U.S. military officer to visit the island in 25 years, according to Agence France-Presse. The Pentagon report says that some Taiwanese officials, acknowledging that Taiwan cannot match China’s offensive military abilities, have proposed acquiring ballistic missiles and land-attack cruise missiles to threaten Chinese cities and high-value targets such as the Three Gorges Dam. Taiwan has also engaged in diplomatic measures, such as seeking a national referendum on a resolution to call on China to withdraw its missiles targeting the island, in an attempt to increase the diplomatic costs for Beijing should it attempt to conduct a missile attack, the report says.
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