U.S. Officials Applaud Missile Defense, Caution Against Expecting Too Much

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Bush administration and U.S. military officials this week softly applauded components of a new national missile defense network President George W. Bush has ordered into operation this year, praising the planned deployment for providing some defensive capability but conceding limitations to that capability (see GSN, Aug. 19).

The deployment would soon provide the United States with some ability, where none exists today, to intercept long-range ballistic missiles from potential adversaries, the officials said, speaking before hundreds of defense contractors, military officials, and others at an annual missile defense conference in Huntsville, Ala.

They acknowledged, though, that near-term protection would be limited. 

“This is the year that we will have a capability … but it is just the beginning because it will be a limited capability and it will be built into a robust capability,” said Lt. Gen. Larry Dodgen, commanding general of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/U.S. Army Forces Strategic Command, a major participant in the conference.

“What we need to discuss this week is certainly how to build that capability into something that will defend our nation for decades to come,” he said.

“It’s important to note that limited defensive operations are just the first step. This is the first baby step on a journey toward developing this complete layered defensive capability,” said Maj. Gen. William Shelton, director of policy, resources, and requirements for the U.S. Strategic Command, which will be responsible for overall operation of the system.

“To say that it’s a mature capability like we would traditionally deploy where we have gone through an extensive test program and have up to four nines in reliability figured out and that sort of thing, that’s just not the system we’re talking about,” he also said.

Such comments were aligned with recent remarks by Bush and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who also praised the planned deployment ordered by Bush in December 2002 to begin this year.

“By the end of this year, we expect to have a limited operational capability against incoming ballistic missiles,” Rumsfeld said at the conference Wednesday.

He acknowledged the components would be deployed before the system is fully developed, but said the “initial set of capabilities” would “evolve over time, as technology advances, and as we are able to make these limited defenses more robust.”

Bush in a recent speech on the campaign trail also praised the planned deployment, and the recent emplacement of a first interceptor in Alaska, without trumpeting its potential effectiveness. He called the deployment “the beginning of a missile defense system that was envisioned by Ronald Reagan.”

The administration plans to deploy up to 40 interceptors in Alaska and California and possibly in Europe over the next few years, beginning with up to 10 this year and 20 by the end of next, as well as a good deal of other equipment.

Critics have argued that deploying the system would be premature, saying the system is not developed sufficiently to be effective, and that the planned deployment has greatly set back development and testing by draining resources.

 “The ballistic missile defense system that the United States will deploy later this year will have no demonstrated defensive capability and will be ineffective against a real attack by long-range ballistic missiles,” according to a report published this year by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

 “As soon as the president declared his decision to deploy the missile defense system, the bottom fell out of the test schedule,” said Philip Coyle of the Center for Defense Information. “Money that has been needed for development and testing has gone for concrete and rebar instead.”

He noted that the administration has canceled nine flight tests of the system over the past two years, after the failure of a December 2002 test (see GSN, May 13, 2003). The Missile Defense Agency disclosed this week that it had delayed the next such test for the fourth time this year, until mid-September (see GSN, Aug. 18).

Shelton argued that deploying the system while it is still under development is necessary because of a potential ICBM threat to the United States.

“Our compressed timelines drive us because the threat is here and now. Thus, the timelines drive us to deploy and develop in parallel and that’s where some of the criticism comes of course, is trying to do that in parallel,” he said.

“But what else are we to do? If you know that the threat is here, if you have even a nascent and rudimentary capability … wouldn’t you deploy that capability to provide whatever level of protection that you can as we continue to mature the capability?” he said.

Rumsfeld said in a prepared text of his speech, “North Korea is working to develop and deploy missiles capable of reaching not just their neighbors, but our country as well. The same can be said of Iran.”

Critics have questioned whether the current $10 billion annual investment in missile defense properly prioritizes the missile threat relative to other security concerns, as Democratic presidential candidate Senator John Kerry’s (Mass.) national security adviser did in a statement Tuesday.

“John Kerry believes an effective missile defense is crucial to our national security strategy. But John Kerry also understands the importance of facing our most pressing national security threats while continuing to develop and deploy a national missile defense which we know will work,” said adviser Rand Beers.  

The system for deployment this year is intended to address a potential North Korean ICBM capability. The U.S. intelligence community generally concluded in 2001, though, that Iran and North Korea could develop missiles capable of striking the United States by 2015.   

North Korea is considered the “next most likely country to have an ICBM capability,” and might be ready now for a flight test of such a capability, said Charles Monson, a Defense Intelligence Agency analyst speaking at the conference.

A North Korean flight test of a three-stage rocket in 1998 reportedly was unsuccessful.

Monson also listed, though, a number of reasons why countries seek ballistic missile capabilities in addition to aggression, including prestige, deterrence, to cover conventional weakness, and to “keep up with the neighbors.”

Rumsfeld also suggested research and development would benefit from the planned deployment, saying it “will allow us to gain operational input from combatant commanders.” Rather than a rush to deployment, he said the administration was engaged in a “rush to learning.”

Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) told the conference the outcome of the Nov. 2 presidential election could determine the direction of the missile defense program and urged attendees to action.

“Your vote in this election has to be like your life depends on it and it does,” he said, noting Kerry favors cutting some funding for the program.

“I’m not going to tell you who to vote for,” he added.

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