Iranian lawmakers yesterday visited a uranium conversion facility near the city of Isfahan. Iran yesterday rejected a proposal put forth by European nations to suspend its uranium enrichment activities. Representatives are set to meet again Wednesday, at which time Iran expects to offer a conterproposal (AFP photo/Amir Kholooshi). Iran Rejects Nuclear Deal The incentives package offered by France, Germany and the United Kingdom for Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities is “unbalanced,” Tehran said yesterday in rejecting the proposal, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Oct. 22). “The European proposal is their preliminary proposition and is not definitive, but it is unbalanced,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi. “We need to reach a balanced agreement, one that would eliminate Europeans’ worries, if there are any, and one that would recognize our rights within the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty].”..Full Story

Hundreds of Tons of Explosives Missing From Iraq Roughly 350 tons of conventional explosives that could be used to detonate nuclear weapons have disappeared from the former al-Qaqaa military facility in Iraq, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed today (see GSN, Oct. 15)...Full Story

North Korea Tops List of Ballistic Missile Exporters By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — North Korea is the world’s foremost supplier of ballistic missiles and related components and technologies, followed by the United States and China, according to an analysis in a new book...Full Story

	Monday, October 25, 2004

Duelfer Report Omitted Long-Term U.N. Plans for Monitoring Iraq, U.N. Officials Say The Iraq Survey Group report, which said that former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein intended to resume WMD efforts once U.N. sanctions were lifted, failed to note that the U.N. Security Council had planned to maintain long-running controls to prevent such weapons development, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 15). “It’s been a little disturbing,” said chief U.N. weapons inspector Demetrius Perricos. “All the arguments say that when sanctions ended, Saddam Hussein would have had a free hand. By the council’s own resolutions that wasn’t so.” The report by ISG chief Charles Duelfer did not include U.N. plans to implement an Ongoing Monitoring and Verification (OMV) program in Iraq, which would have been in place at hundreds of dual-use and former WMD-related Iraqi sites, according to AP. The program had been envisioned at about a $70 million per year effort involving about 350 people, AP reported. Inspectors would have used sensors, sampling devices, remote video systems, inspections and interviews to keep track of the facilities. Aerial surveillance, vehicle inspections and imports monitoring would also have been included in the verification program, according to AP. The program became moot following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, AP reported. The CIA and Duelfer did not comment on why the OMV program was not included in the Iraq Survey Group report. Former U.S. chief weapons inspector in Iraq David Kay said the OMV program was “discounted” and left out of Duelfer’s report because it was believed that “the Iraqis over time would find out how to manipulate the cameras, sampling methods, occasional visits” (Charles Hanley, Associated Press/Boston Herald, Oct. 24). Back to top       PSI Exercise Begins in Japan Ships from Japan, France, Australia and the United States today began the first multinational naval drill in Asia on halting shipments of weapons of mass destruction, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Oct. 22). The exercise is occurring under the auspices of the U.S. Proliferation Security Initiative. Officials met today in Tokyo to review plans for the drill to begin tomorrow near Yokohama. Observers from the United Kingdom, Canada, Russia and 15 other countries are also present in Japan. China and South Korea declined invitations to attend due to North Korean opposition to the event, AFP reported. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, on an official visit to Tokyo yesterday, said North Korea need only be concerned about the exercises if it is participating in WMD proliferation. “This is not hostile to any nation that is acting in an appropriate manner,” said Powell. “The only thing North Korea should be concerned about is whether or not they are going to be caught in the act of participating in this kind of illicit traffic.” Japan plans to deploy approximately 580 military and coast guard personnel, five coast guard vessels and a destroyer to the drill, according to AFP. The remaining three participants are each to send approximately 100 personnel and a military ship. One scenario calls for the ships to pursue and capture two ships involved in the smuggling of the nerve agent sarin, according to AFP. There have been “some” interdictions of questionable material since the Proliferation Security Initiative began in May 2003, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton told a U.S. arms-control magazine. Bolton is expected to observe the drill in Sagami Bay tomorrow, said a spokesman at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo. (Shino Yuasa, Agence France-Presse, Oct. 25). Back to top       CIA Withdraws Claim that Danish Company Violated U.N. Sanctions Against Iraq The CIA last week retracted its allegation that the Danish company Niro violated U.N. sanctions by selling equipment to Iraq that could be used to develop biological weapons (see GSN, Oct. 20). The claim was included in a U.S. report released last month describing the U.S. hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. After an inquiry into the company discovered nothing, the Danish government asked U.S. officials for more information on Thursday, Agence France-Presse reported. The CIA published a message on its Web site saying the allegation had been based on incorrect information. “The report implies that Iraq procured the spray dryers with precise atomizer nozzles from Danish company Niro Atomizer Inc. in 2001. That is incorrect.  In fact, the spray dryers and nozzles were procured in the late 1980s, well before U.N. sanctions were in place on such equipment,” the CIA said. “I’m pleased that the CIA has now withdrawn its allegation on its Web site. Niro is no longer accused of having violated the U.N. sanctions against Iraq," Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller said in a statement (Agence France-Presse/TurkishPress.com, Oct. 22). Back to top

Iran Rejects Nuclear Deal The incentives package offered by France, Germany and the United Kingdom for Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities is “unbalanced,” Tehran said yesterday in rejecting the proposal, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Oct. 22). “The European proposal is their preliminary proposition and is not definitive, but it is unbalanced,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi. “We need to reach a balanced agreement, one that would eliminate Europeans’ worries, if there are any, and one that would recognize our rights within the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty].” Asefi added that Iran was negotiating with other countries over its nuclear program. “Each country has its role and power,” he said. “We have not limited our negotiations to the three European countries, and we are and will be using diplomacy in the future with other countries.” The next meeting with the European powers is set for Wednesday, at which time Iran is expected to offer a counterproposal, Asefi said (Nazila Fathi, New York Times, Oct. 25). Meanwhile, Hossein Mousavian, foreign policy chief of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, revealed yesterday that Iranian officials two to three months ago approved preparations for a possible referral to the U.N. Security Council, the Financial Times reported. “The threat of...the Security Council is not one that the key decision-makers in Tehran will buy any more,” he said. “I tell you this very frankly, the decision is made. We are prepared to go.  If they have chosen confrontation, we are prepared.” “Fear existed before, but two or three months ago we decided that if the dialogue and negotiation are going to be one-way, and — if they are not going to stay within the framework of the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] then the option of the Security Council is welcome,” Mousavian said. He added that Iran would cooperate within the terms of the treaty, which gives signatories the right to enrich uranium and to receive nuclear technology. “There is a chance to reach a compromise, if we both accept that we need bilateral commitments — with a clear timetable,” he said (Gareth Smyth, Financial Times, Oct. 24). Hassan Rohani, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, said today that Iran could consider continuing its suspension of uranium enrichment, Agence France-Presse reported. “The European proposal for an unlimited suspension of uranium enrichment can be implemented, provided it does not contradict the Islamic republic’s criteria,” Rohani told Iranian state television (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 25). Iranian and European negotiators briefed International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei about their talks last week, Reuters reported. ElBaradei said negotiations were “moving in the right direction,” according to an agency spokeswoman. Most European nations are expected to back U.S. demands that Tehran be reported to the Security Council when the IAEA Board of Governors meets again on Nov. 25, diplomats close to the agency have said. Western diplomats said they do not believe that Iran would be ready to accept the offer Wednesday, according to Reuters (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Oct. 22). Elsewhere, a uranium conversion facility in Isfahan is now “70 percent” operational, an Iranian nuclear agency official said yesterday, according to AFP. “Most of the equipment of the Isfahan factory has been built by Iranian scientists and it is 70 percent operational at the current time,” said Mohammad Ghanadi. “After the end of cooperation with the Chinese, we grouped together our scientists and in less than four years we managed to complete the construction of these installations,” he told state television. “The installations in Isfahan cover a space of 60 hectares (150 acres) and have 60 units and 15,000 machine tools, most of which were built by Iranian experts,” he added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 24). Back to top       Hundreds of Tons of Explosives Missing From Iraq Roughly 350 tons of conventional explosives that could be used to detonate nuclear weapons have disappeared from the former al-Qaqaa military facility in Iraq, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed today (see GSN, Oct. 15). The Iraqi Science and Technology Ministry informed the agency on Oct. 10 that the explosives were missing, IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. “Upon receiving the declaration on Oct. 10, we first took measures to authenticate it,” Fleming said. “Then on Oct. 15, we informed the multinational forces through the U.S. government with the request for it to take any appropriate action in cooperation with Iraq’s interim government.” IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei is set to report the missing explosives to the U.N. Security Council today, Fleming said. “We do not know what happened to the explosives or when they were looted,” she said (William Kole, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 25). Back to top       Brazilian Site Could Produce Enough Enriched Uranium for Six Warheads Per Year, U.S. Researchers Say Brazil’s uranium enrichment facility could produce enough weapon-grade material to build six nuclear weapons per year, U.S. researchers said Friday (see GSN, Oct. 21). “At its announced capacity, Brazil's new facility located at Resende will have the potential to produce enough uranium to make five to six ... warheads per year,” wrote Gary Milhollin and Liz Palmer of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control in an article published Friday in Science. That capacity could grow to upwards of 63 warheads annually by 2014 under planned upgrades for the plant, the researchers said. Wisconsin Project director Milhollin told Reuters that he does not believe Brazil aims to produce nuclear weapons. “What I am doing is giving the theoretical potential of the plant,” he said. “They would have to reconfigure the centrifuges, but they could do it with what they got, with the existing equipment” (Axel Bugge, Reuters, Oct. 22) Brazil has pledged that its nuclear program is being developed only to generate energy. Brazilian National Nuclear Energy Commission President Odair Dias Goncalves on Friday called Milhollin’s claims “frivolous.” “They can only be the result of misinformation or motivated by shadowy interests,” he said. “Both motives are incompatible with the tradition of such a prestigious magazine like Science” (Michael Astor, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 22). Back to top       Powell Rejects North Korean Conditions for Nuclear Talks, Urges China to Pressure Pyongyang U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell on Saturday said that Washington would not provide economic aid to North Korea to entice Pyongyang to return to the six-party talks on its nuclear program (see GSN, Oct. 22). “President Bush is committed to assisting the Korean people to a better life and to help the Korean people to deal with problems of food sufficiency [and] energy,” Powell said while traveling in Asia. “But we can’t start putting things up front on the table, from our perspective, because we do not think that is the way to ultimately achieve our mutual objective, which is complete removal of a nuclear weapons program and all of its parts from North Korea.” He added that Pyongyang should not set conditions for resuming talks. “Any outstanding issues that are holding up progress should be dealt with in the context of the discussions, not press statements or rhetoric going back and forth,” he said (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Oct. 24). Powell was visiting Japan, China and South Korea in hopes of promoting a strategy for the return to nuclear negotiations. Before leaving Beijing today for Seoul, Powell urged China to use its influence with North Korea to resume six-party talks, Reuters reported. “China has considerable influence with North Korea,” Powell said at a news conference after meeting Chinese President Hu Jintao and other top officials. “I hope that as a result of our conversations, both of us will energize the other members of the six-party framework to resolve the outstanding issues that keep us from setting a date for a meeting” (Saul Hudson, Reuters, Oct. 24). A senior State Department official said China indicated that it would redouble its efforts to persuade North Korea to return to the negotiating table, Agence France-Presse reported. “It is my opinion that the Chinese will use their combination of influence and try to get the dialogue to resume as soon as possible and certainly within the next couple of months,” the official told AFP (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 25). Back to top       Pakistan Extends Scientist’s Detention A Pakistani scientist suspected of involvement in the international nuclear network once headed by top scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan has been ordered to serve another three months in custody, officials said yesterday (see GSN, July 26). Mohammed Farooq was of 11 people arrested last year from the Khan Research Laboratories, Pakistan’s top nuclear weapons facility, after Khan confessed to transferring nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Farooq is the only KRL employee to remain in custody, the Associated Press reported. A senior army official said Farooq’s continued detention was needed to allow further investigation, but he declined to elaborate or say what charges have been filed against the scientist (Sadaqat Jan, Associated Press/The Daily Comet, Oct. 24). Back to top       South Korea Creates Nuclear Control Agency South Korea today created an independent nuclear control agency, following revelations of plutonium and uranium experiment in past decades, according to the Xinhua News Agency (see GSN, Oct. 12). The National Nuclear Control Agency was established to help strengthen the transparency and reliability of nuclear energy activities, the South Korean Science and Technology Ministry said. The agency will also help Seoul implement a four-part statement on nuclear policy released last month in which South Korea pledged not to conduct a nuclear weapons program and promised to work to prevent nuclear proliferation, the ministry said (Xinhua News Agency, Oct. 25). Back to top       United States May Refrain From Pushing ElBaradei to Step Down After Second IAEA Term While U.S. officials have said that International Atomic Energy Director General Mohamed ElBaradei should step down at the end of his second term in office, they might not want to spark a political battle by formally opposing his interest in a third term, Reuters reported Saturday (see GSN, Sept. 30). “We’d rather see an elegant way out for everybody. What we’re seeking is a resolution that doesn’t force the issue,” a senior U.S. official said. The United States supports the “Geneva rule” — a position taken by the top 10 funding contributors to international organizations that heads of such agencies should not serve more than two terms. U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton and other Bush administration officials have been highly critical of ElBaradei and the U.N. nuclear watchdog for being too easy on suspected nuclear weapons developers such as Iran and North Korea. Bolton might push for ElBaradei’s ouster if President George W. Bush is re-elected on Nov. 2, another senior U.S. official said. That battle “could be nasty,” the official said.  Democratic presidential hopeful Senator John Kerry (Mass.) has not developed a position on the issue, according to Kerry campaign sources. While some Kerry advisers might also like to see a new IAEA director general, “We’d have to look at the political consequences,” one Democratic insider told Reuters. Senior Bush officials, however, admitted there is no obvious replacement for ElBaradei and that there is some reluctance to forcibly oust another Egyptian U.N. diplomat, following the exit of Egyptian-born, single-term U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, engineered by the Clinton administration. Some officials fear such a move would exacerbate anti-American feelings in the world’s most populous Arab country (Carol Giacomo, Reuters, Oct. 23). Back to top

Democrats Criticize U.S. Biological Terror Readiness A report set to be released today by the Democratic staff of the House Homeland Security Committee criticizes the Bush administration’s plans to distribute drugs and vaccines following a biological weapons attack, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Oct. 7). The report is based on 41 responses to a set of five questions about states’ preparedness and funding in the event of a biological attack, AP reported. Just three states responded that they were at the optimal level of preparedness as determined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Four states replied that they were at the bottom of the CDC scale and six states had not been rated. A spokesman for the Health and Human Services Department criticized the report as “petty partisan politics.” “No president in history has done more to strengthen our public health and emergency response capabilities than President [George W.] Bush,” spokesman Tony Jewell said (Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, Oct. 25). Meanwhile, British medical experts have warned of the increasing threat posed by biological terrorism, BBC News reported today. “It is essential that governments take action on this issue now,” said Vivienne Nathanson, head of science and ethics at the British Medical Association. “If we wait too long it will be virtually impossible to defend ourselves.” The British Medical Association has released a report analyzing the affect terrorist attacks over the past few years have had on the development of biological weapons, BBC News reported. According to the report, genetically engineered anthrax and weapons capable of targeting various ethnic groups could be used in the future. Governments should fully implement requirements of the Biological Weapons Convention, while scientists must consider how their research might affect legal and ethical standards on the development of biological weapons, the report states (BBC News, Oct. 25). Back to top

Tooele Suspends VX Disposal for Safety Review The Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Utah on Thursday suspended disposal of spray tanks filled with VX nerve agent for a safety and compliance review, which is expected to take seven to 10 days, the Salt Lake Tribune reported (see GSN, Oct. 1). Systems contractor EG&G Materials Inc. began the review after new, stricter environmental controls led to an increase in alarms for carbon monoxide and oxygen concentrations, said Alaine Southworth, spokeswoman for the nearby Deseret Chemical Depot in Tooele County. “This review is a sound course of action and emphasizes the Army’s commitment to air quality,” said Ted Ryba, acting site project manager. Meanwhile, an employee suspected of silencing an emergency alarm system was fired following an investigation. The employee worked for EG&G’s subcontractor Battelle, according to the Tribune (Dawn House, Salt Lake Tribune, Oct. 22). Back to top

North Korea Tops List of Ballistic Missile Exporters By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — North Korea is the world’s foremost supplier of ballistic missiles and related components and technologies, followed by the United States and China, according to an analysis in a new book. “Today, only two countries (and possibly a third, although the status of China is unclear) are both willing and able to supply complete ballistic missiles — North Korea and the United States,” wrote Siemon Wezeman, in the recently released 2004 Yearbook from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. “All three countries supply components and technology for ballistic missiles,” he wrote. While North Korea’s motive for proliferation appears to be principally financial, other countries have transferred missile technology for other reasons including supporting an ally, such as China’s suspected transfers to Pakistan and U.S. deliveries to the United Kingdom, according to Wezeman. Wezeman’s essay cites mainly news reports and private sector industry analyses for its data, as well as publicly available government sources. North Korea North Korea “is undoubtedly the main exporter of ballistic missiles,” according to Wezeman, citing reports suggesting trade with Iran, Libya, Pakistan, Syria and Yemen (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2002). North Korea has supplied missile factories, components and complete missiles, he wrote, adding that Iran reportedly assembles North Korean Scuds from kits. “What is problematic, from an arms control point of view, is that North Korea, the main source of ballistic missiles and related technology, has been shown to be unscrupulous in its arms exports and unconcerned about the fact that most ballistic missile programs are closely linked to WMD programs,” he wrote. Due to the challenge in making them accurate, ballistic missiles are most useful for delivering weapons of mass destruction that can cause damage over a wide area, according to Weseman. The “main worry and urgency in the debate about missile proliferation concerns,” he wrote, is the potential use of missiles to deliver weapons to deliver weapons of mass destruction. He noted, though, that “the trade in ballistic missiles remains legal.” The United States The United States is the only country “known to have transferred long-range ballistic missiles for use with nuclear warheads,” wrote Wezeman, a SIPRI researcher from the Netherlands. He cited the 1990s delivery of 58 Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles to the United Kingdom, part of a long-standing arrangement between the two countries for such exchanges. The United States, Wezeman wrote, “has been involved in several transfers of ballistic missiles and related technology, most of which are either historical [occurring some years ago] or mainly related to civilian space programs.” India’s Agni 2 missile program, for example, has used equipment from a civilian space missile that is based on U.S. technology acquired more than 20 years ago, he wrote. Wezeman cited a report that South Korea in 2001 signed a deal with the United States to buy 111 300-kilometer range ballistic missiles called ATACMS, with the first reportedly to be delivered this year. He also noted reports this year of Taiwanese efforts to develop a 300-kilometer-range missile capable of reaching cities on the Chinese mainland.  “Anonymous Taiwanese sources maintain that key components for a medium-range missile have been obtained from the USA and that Taiwanese or former Taiwanese scientists in the USA have offered their assistance,” he wrote, adding that Taiwan denies having such a program. China The United States has accused China of exporting complete ballistic missiles to Pakistan since the early 1990s, Wezeman wrote. The communist nation also is suspected of exporting such technology to Iran, including supporting Iranian development of missiles with ranges of 2,000 and 5,000 kilometers — “the existence of both of which is denied by Iran,” according to Wezeman. “According to the USA, China remains a key source of ballistic missile technology for Iran, including solid-fuel rocket engines,” he wrote. In addition, China is suspected of continuing to provide ballistic missile technical support for Saudi Arabia, which bought some 36 Chinese DF-3 ballistic missiles in 1988, according to Wezeman. The United States has alleged that China and North Korea helped Syria begin missile production and trained Syrian engineers, he wrote. Western European Exports Down Meanwhile, there are indications, if not fully confirmed reports, that China is supporting a North Korean missile program, Saudi Arabia traded its Chinese missiles or technology to Pakistan, China in recent years obtained technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles from Russia and Ukraine, and Iran received support from Russia, according to Wezeman. On the other hand, Western European countries, historic sources of ballistic missile technology to such countries as Argentina, Brazil and Libya, appear to have effectively cracked down on proliferators within their borders, he wrote. “Most of these programs have now been dismantled and European states have extended controls to prevent future involvement,” he wrote. Back to top

U.S. Antiradiation Pill Stockpile Plan Stalls The Bush administration has not yet implemented a plan to stockpile antiradiation pills in case of sabotage at a nuclear power plant, the New York Times reported Saturday (see GSN, Dec. 5, 2003). A congressionally mandated study by the National Academy of Sciences concluded in December 2003 that states and municipalities should determine how and where to stock and distribute potassium iodide and that the federal government should to maintain a potassium iodide stockpile and fund local efforts. The academy called on the Bush administration to develop stockpiling guidelines for state and local officials; but that has yet to occur, according to the Times. President George W. Bush in his 2004 State of the Union address warned of the possibility that terrorists could attack a nuclear reactor, noting that U.S. forces in Afghanistan had found plans for U.S. power plants, the Times reported. The Health and Human Services Department has prepared guidelines on potassium iodide that are “in the process of final clearance and will be shared with state and local stakeholders for comment in the near future,” a Bush administration official said Friday. The study said potassium iodide “should be available to everyone at risk of significant health consequences from accumulation of radioiodine in the thyroid in the event of a radiological incident.” Each exposed individual might need 10 or 15 days’ worth of the drug, said Alan Morris, president of Anbex, the government’s sole supplier of the pills. “It’s hard to understand their motivation for not taking this relatively easy, relatively inexpensive, highly effective approach,” Morris said. “It was the most important thing the Soviets did after Chernobyl.” The National Academy study, however, said a single day’s dose would suffice because people would be evacuated from the area of any radiological incident, according to the Times. The report says that while the pills would be useful in the case of a nuclear weapon explosion, they would not be a top priority in the latter case. The pills would also not be useful in the event of a “dirty bomb” attack, experts have said (Matthew Wald, New York Times, Oct. 23). Back to top       Investigators to Measure Radiation at Congo Mine U.N. investigators are expected to measure radiation levels at a uranium mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United Nations announced Friday (see GSN, July 21). The team is scheduled to visit the Shinkolobwe mine from Oct. 24-Nov. 4, according to U.N. spokeswoman Elizabeth Byrs. A report is expected by the end of November, according to the Associated Press. Workers at the mine continue to dig illegally for cobalt, according to the Associated Press. President Joseph Kabila ordered a halt to mining there earlier this year under international pressure from parties who feared the mine’s uranium deposits could fall into the hands of terrorists. The estimated 14,000 miners at the site could also face cancer or other health problems due to high radiation levels at the mine, the United Nations said (Associated Press, Oct. 22).   Back to top

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