Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

    Issue for Wednesday, October 27, 2004

    Week in Review

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  terrorism  
U.S. Lawmakers Hope To Reach Compromise on Intelligence Reform Bill This Week Full Story
Russia to Contribute Two Navy Vessels to NATO Antiterror Effort in Mediterranean Sea Full Story
Nuclear Regulatory Commission Shuts Web Library Full Story
Recent Stories

  nuclear  
Iran Rejects Latest European Call for Complete Suspension of Uranium Enrichment Activities Full Story
Russian Businessman Claims to Have Attempted to Foil Sale of Russian “Suitcase” Nuclear Device Full Story
Powell Denies U.S. Inflexibility in Negotiations on North Korean Nuclear Program Full Story
U.S. Military Unit Did Not Have Orders to Search Iraqi Site for Now-Missing Explosives, Officer Says Full Story
Work Remains to Wrap Up Nuclear Network, Experts Say Full Story
Indian Nuclear Arsenal Helped Deter Regional Rivals’ Ambitions, Prime Minister Says Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile1  
India Successfully Tests Naval Prithvi 3 Missile Full Story
North Korea Resumes Missile Base Activity Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile2  
New U.S. Missile Defense Director Vows More Secrecy Full Story
Recent Stories

 

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It is certainly good news that at least the beginning of breaking up [Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan’s nuclear smuggling] network has occurred. Unfortunately, a substantial number of players in that network are still walking around free people.
—Nuclear expert Matthew Bunn of Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government.


Iranian nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian (shown in an Oct. 16 photo) said yesterday that it could take Iran months to reach an agreement with European nations on its uranium enrichment activities (AFP photo/Atta Kenare).
Iranian nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian (shown in an Oct. 16 photo) said yesterday that it could take Iran months to reach an agreement with European nations on its uranium enrichment activities (AFP photo/Atta Kenare).
Iran Rejects Latest European Call for Complete Suspension of Uranium Enrichment Activities

Iran today rejected a call by France, Germany and the United Kingdom to suspend all uranium enrichment activities, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 26).

“Total suspension will not be accepted under any circumstances,” said Sirus Naseri, a member of the Iranian delegation discussing a European proposal at a second round of talks in Vienna...Full Story

New U.S. Missile Defense Director Vows More Secrecy

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Missile Defense Agency in the future will be more secretive about aspects of its national missile defense program as it resumes major flight testing after a two-year hiatus, its new director said in a presentation here yesterday...Full Story

Russian Businessman Claims to Have Attempted to Foil Sale of Russian “Suitcase” Nuclear Device

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Russian businessman Boris Berezovsky claimed this week that in 2002 he attempted to block the sale of a stolen Russian nuclear device — a statement met with skepticism by U.S. and Russian nuclear proliferation experts (see GSN, March 23)...Full Story

Current Issue Wednesday, October 27, 2004
terrorism

U.S. Lawmakers Hope To Reach Compromise on Intelligence Reform Bill This Week

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — House and Senate negotiators are “hopeful” that a compromise intelligence reform bill can be completed by the end of the week, a spokeswoman for one of the Senate negotiators said today (see GSN, Oct. 21).

House and Senate lawmakers have met every day this week to work out the differences in their separate intelligence reform bills, which seek to implement the recommendations put forth this summer by the Sept. 11 commission including the creation of a national intelligence director and a national counterterrorism center. The negotiations are set to continue with the aim of reaching a compromise bill by the end of the week, said Elissa Davidson, a spokeswoman for Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Chairwoman Susan Collins (R-Maine). Davidson declined to comment on what, if any, progress was made during this week’s meetings.

Lawmakers had previously expressed a desire to have a completed intelligence reform bill approved and ready for signature by President George W. Bush before the Nov. 2 elections — a deadline that lawmakers increasingly appear unlikely to meet, according to reports.

Over the past several days, House and Senate lawmakers have exchanged compromise proposals on several of the differences in their two bills. Much of the debate has appeared to focus on the level of budgetary authority for the planned national intelligence director. The defense secretary, who oversees a number of U.S. intelligence agencies, would have greater input into how funds are distributed to various intelligence agencies under the House bill than is envisioned in the Senate bill.

Collins and Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.) this week criticized the proposal offered by House negotiators regarding the level of budgetary authority for the new intelligence director, saying the proposal “does not provide … the strong authority that the majority of Congress believes he or she should have and that the majority of Congress voted to support.”

The House and Senate bills also continue to differ on several aspects of the planned national counterterrorism center, with the Senate in favor of the center’s director reporting directly to the president and the national intelligence director on planning joint counterterrorism operations, as well as having an active role in the selection of other top counterterrorism officials. Under the House bill, the counterterrorism center director would report to a deputy national intelligence director, and would have no role in the selection of other counterterrorism officials.

In addition, no compromise has been reached on whether the total amount of the intelligence budget should be declassified — as supported by the Senate and the Sept. 11 commission but opposed by the House of Representatives and the White House.

In a message sent Oct. 23 to Senate staff members and released yesterday by House Armed Services Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), former Sept. 11 commission staff director Phillip Zelikow praised the House proposal, “with one major caveat” centering on the issue of declassifying the total intelligence budget.

Once that issue is resolved, “the formula in the House offer … seems a relatively reasonable way to do the job,” wrote Zelikow.

Members of the Sept. 11 commission, though, reiterated their support Monday for the language in the Senate bill concerning the planned authority for the new national intelligence director.

“We do believe, and most people believe, I guess, that unless there is strong power, particularly budget power, for the national intelligence director, then they shouldn’t create the position,” said former panel Chairman Thomas Kean.

Kean and other commissioners called on lawmakers to work quickly to complete a compromise bill.

“We have reason to believe that the conferees are very, very close at this point. And it would be a tragedy for the country if they were not able to reach an agreement when they are actually so close,” he said. “They’ve just simply got to go that last inch and get an agreement.”


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Russia to Contribute Two Navy Vessels to NATO Antiterror Effort in Mediterranean Sea


Russia plans to deploy two naval vessels this week to join about two dozen NATO ships conducting antiterrorism patrols on the Mediterranean Sea, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Aug. 4).

The ships from the Black Sea Fleet are to participate in Operation Active Endeavor until early 2005, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said yesterday. The NATO ships have worked in the eastern Mediterranean and Straits of Gibraltar since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, according to AP, and in March, NATO expanded the operation to encompass the entire Mediterranean.

The patrols would help prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and WMD-related equipment, Ivanov said yesterday.

Moscow and NATO signed a partnership agreement in 2002, pledging cooperation in counterterrorism, nonproliferation and other areas (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 26).


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Nuclear Regulatory Commission Shuts Web Library


The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission yesterday announced it had closed its online document library while it investigates which materials could be useful to terrorists and should be removed from the agency Web site, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 21).

The public will temporarily be barred from accessing the library, the agency’s online hearing docket files and staff documents regarding consideration of a nuclear waste depository, according to AP.

“This action, when completed, is intended to ensure that documents which might provide assistance to terrorists will be inaccessible while maintaining public access to information regarding NRC activities,” the agency said in a statement.

More than 1,000 documents were removed from the NRC site in the wake of the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, according to AP. Additional reviews led to further removals (Associated Press/USA Today, Oct. 26).


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nuclear

Iran Rejects Latest European Call for Complete Suspension of Uranium Enrichment Activities


Iran today rejected a call by France, Germany and the United Kingdom to suspend all uranium enrichment activities, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 26).

“Total suspension will not be accepted under any circumstances,” said Sirus Naseri, a member of the Iranian delegation discussing a European proposal at a second round of talks in Vienna.

Naseri added, however, that a compromise could still be possible.

“We’re negotiating,” he said. “We’re trying to come to an agreement. The next meeting will be soon.”

Today’s talks were aimed at resolving the standoff with Iran instead of sending its case to the U.N. Security Council for further review and possible sanctions.

Negotiators first met last week to discuss the European offer that includes providing Iran with a light-water nuclear reactor. A third round of talks is expected “shortly,” according to the British Foreign Office.

“Some progress was made towards identifying the elements of a common approach towards the issues,” a Foreign Office spokesman said (Susanna Loof, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 27).

A senior Iranian official said yesterday it could take months for Tehran to work out an agreement with the Europeans, Agence France-Presse reported.

“There are many ambiguities in the European proposal. ... We are waiting for an answer from the Europeans on our questions before we can decide (to accept it),” Iran’s nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 27).

Meanwhile, hard-line members of Iran’s parliament yesterday introduced legislation that would force Tehran to resume uranium enrichment and end unannounced International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, Reuters reported.

The lawmakers said they could give the bill “double urgency” status, meaning it could come to the floor for discussion in the next few days, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Iranian officials have said that they would have no choice but to implement such a measure if it was approved by parliament, according to Reuters. Some diplomats, however, said that might not be the case.

“They want us to think that we need to go easy on them or the hard-liners in parliament will gain the upper hand,” one diplomat said. “Ultimately, parliament will do what the (Iranian) leadership wants it to do, not vice versa.” (Paul Hughes, Reuters, Oct. 26).


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Russian Businessman Claims to Have Attempted to Foil Sale of Russian “Suitcase” Nuclear Device

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Russian businessman Boris Berezovsky claimed this week that in 2002 he attempted to block the sale of a stolen Russian nuclear device — a statement met with skepticism by U.S. and Russian nuclear proliferation experts (see GSN, March 23).

Berezovsky described the attempted sale, and his role in the incident, in an interview with the London Sunday Times published this week. According to Berezovsky, he was contacted in 2002 by a Chechen living in Paris who he knew as “Zakhar,” who claimed to be brokering for an unidentified third party the sale of a stolen Russian “suitcase” nuclear bomb for $3 million. 

During a subsequent meeting arranged at the request of U.S. intelligence in London, an aide to Berezovsky asked Zakhar to provide evidence that the bomb actually existed, but the Chechen failed to do so. Berezovsky told the Times that he provided British intelligence with information on the incident, but added that he did not know what, if any, measures were further taken by U.S. and British intelligence or the ultimate resolution of the incident.

The CIA declined to comment this week on Berezovsky’s report. 

The Russian Embassy in Washington did not return calls for comment. 

There is debate as to whether the former Soviet Union actually built so-called “suitcase” nuclear bombs — small, portable weapons possibly intended for use in demolition or sabotage — and if it did, the number, location and security of such devices. Reports of missing suitcase bombs potentially in the hands of Chechen militants, al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups stretch back to the mid-1990s, but none have been substantiated.

U.S. and Russian experts viewed Berezovsky’s report with a high degree of skepticism.

“I’m a bit impatient with all these stories,” said Rose Gottemoeller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“If they had really had those bombs I think they would have found the way to convince the public in their seriousness,” said Yuri Yudin of the Analytical Center for Nonproliferation at All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Experimental Physics in the closed Russian city of Saratov.

Experts noted several difficulties would-be terrorists would have in using a suitcase bomb, if they were able to obtain one, in an attack.  While the device is known as a “suitcase” bomb, Gottemoeller said, it requires about three footlockers worth of equipment to operate, reducing its portability. In addition, if such devices did exist, they are probably past the end of their operational life and are no longer functioning, said William Hoehn of the Russian-American Nuclear Security Advisory Council.

Gottemoeller also noted the long-standing animosity between Berezovsky and the Kremlin. Following attempts by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government to prosecute him on charges of fraud and political corruption, Berezovsky fled to the United Kingdom, which granted him political asylum last year.

“He’s always looking for ways to pull the Kremlin’s chain,” Gottemoeller said.    


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Powell Denies U.S. Inflexibility in Negotiations on North Korean Nuclear Program


U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday rejected suggestions by China and South Korea that the United States should have more flexibility in seeking a resolution to the standoff over North Korea’s nuclear program, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Oct. 26).

South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, at a news conference with Powell yesterday in Seoul, said that the United States and other participants in the stalled six-party talks “must come up with a more creative and realistic proposal so that North Korea can come to the negotiating table as soon as possible.”

The English translation of Ban’s remarks, according to South Korean journalists present at the conference, omitted the portion of his statement questioning the U.S. approach. Powell, therefore, appeared unaware of Ban’s apparent criticism, according to the Times (Steven Weisman, New York Times, Oct. 27).

In an interview with NBC News, Powell yesterday responded to Ban’s statement and a similar request made Monday by China.

The United States offered “a forward-leaning, flexible proposal” at the third round of six-party talks, Powell said. The White House said it would enter into a security agreement with the other parties in exchange for Pyongyang taking irreversible steps toward eliminating its nuclear program, he said.

Powell also noted that North Korea has not yet formally responded to the U.S. proposal (see GSN, July 26).

“We go into these negotiations with flexibility, we hear what the others have to say. But we’re not going to get into a position where every few weeks we have to put something else on the table in order to satisfy the North Koreans,” he said. “The North Koreans need to come back to the table so we can all sit around and discuss the proposal they put forward, the proposal we put forward, and the proposal the South Koreans put forward. The way to do this is at the discussion, not via press conferences or statements.” (State Department release, Oct. 26).


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U.S. Military Unit Did Not Have Orders to Search Iraqi Site for Now-Missing Explosives, Officer Says


During the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the U.S 101st Airborne Division’s 2nd Brigade conducted only a limited search of the al-Qaqaa facility that housed hundreds of tons of explosives that have since been reported missing, the unit’s spokesman said yesterday. Some of the explosives were a type that could be used to detonate nuclear weapons (see GSN, Oct. 26).

The unit, one of the first to reach the facility, encountered looters at the site when it arrived shortly after coalition forces captured Baghdad on April 9, 2003, Lt. Col. Fred Wellman told the Associated Press.

Soldiers “secured the area they were in and looked in a limited amount of bunkers to ensure chemical weapons were not present in their area,” Wellman wrote in an e-mail message. “Bombs were found but not chemical weapons in that immediate area.”

“Orders were not given from higher to search or to secure the facility or to search for HE type munitions, as they (high-explosive weapons) were everywhere in Iraq,” he wrote (Kimberly Hefling, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 27).


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Work Remains to Wrap Up Nuclear Network, Experts Say


U.S. nuclear nonproliferation experts said that more work is needed to wrap up the international nuclear network revealed early this year by top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Christian Science Monitor reported today (see GSN, Oct. 25).

“Overall, the Khan network is the biggest nonproliferation disaster of the nuclear age,” said Matthew Bunn, a nuclear expert at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. “It is certainly good news that at least the beginning of breaking up that network has occurred. Unfortunately, a substantial number of players in that network are still walking around free people.”

Among those still potentially on the loose are unidentified businessmen who have the technical capabilities needed to produce components for uranium enrichment centrifuges, according to the Monitor

In addition, Khan and a number of his associates remain free in Pakistan, which has not provided either the United States or the International Atomic Energy Agency with direct access to them. While the United States has refrained from pressuring Pakistan to provide access to Khan, for fear of destabilizing an ally in the war on terrorism, experts said Washington could do more to have Pakistan allow IAEA inspectors to interview Khan.

“For the U.S. to leverage [Pakistani President Pervez] Musharraf so the IAEA could talk to Khan, how does that destabilize Pakistan?” said David Albright, president of the Institute of Science and International Security in Washington (Faye Bowers, Christian Science Monitor, Oct. 27).


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Indian Nuclear Arsenal Helped Deter Regional Rivals’ Ambitions, Prime Minister Says


As Indian military commanders work to create a new combat doctrine, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said yesterday that his country’s nuclear weapons have helped to rein in the ambitions of other countries in the region, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Oct. 20).

“The exercise of the nuclear option by India helped remove potentially dangerous strategic ambiguities in the region,” Singh told military commanders at a five-day meeting in New Delhi. “In fashioning our nuclear doctrine we have been guided by the policy of minimum nuclear deterrence and no first use, underlined by restraint and responsibility.”

Indian military leaders are expected to create a combat doctrine that includes the transfer of control of nuclear-capable missiles from the government to the military, officials said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 26).


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missile1

India Successfully Tests Naval Prithvi 3 Missile


India today conducted a successful test launch of a naval version of its Prithvi 3 ballistic missile, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, July 6). The nuclear-capable missile has a range of up to 300 kilometers (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Oct. 27).

Citing an Indian news agency, the Associated Press reported that the test was conducted from a underwater platform (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 27).

Pakistan received advanced notification of the test, Pakistani Foreign office spokesman Masood Khan said, adding that Islamabad had conducted similar tests of its own missiles (Agence France-Presse/Khaleej Times, Oct. 27).


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North Korea Resumes Missile Base Activity


Activity at a North Korean base that houses missiles with ranges of up to 810 miles has the United States, Japan and South Korea again concerned that Pyongyang might be preparing a test launch, a South Korean newspaper reported today (see GSN, Oct. 12).

Two or three days ago “North Koreans began making moves at the Jeongju base, such as moving mobile missile launch stations,” the Chosun Ilbo quoted a senior South Korean government official as saying. “We are monitoring the movements to see whether this was part of their training or they actually intend to launch a missile.”

The base, located 60 miles north of Pyongyang, houses Scud-type missiles capable of flying up to 310 miles and Nodong missiles with a range of 810 miles, according to the Associated Press. The Nodong’s range enables it to reach most areas of Japan’s four main islands.

South Korea “neither confirms nor denies” the report, said a Defense Ministry official (Sang-Hun Choe, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 26).


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missile2

New U.S. Missile Defense Director Vows More Secrecy

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Missile Defense Agency in the future will be more secretive about aspects of its national missile defense program as it resumes major flight testing after a two-year hiatus, its new director said in a presentation here yesterday.

“As we proceed in the future, you’ll see more of the program becoming classified,” said Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry A. Obering III, who became agency director in July following the retirement of Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish.

Obering said officials have an obligation to inform U.S. taxpayers about their investment in the multibillion-dollar system, but said the agency seeks to avoid tipping off potential enemies about weaknesses in the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system.

“Aspects that anyone can glean a vulnerability or a definite determination of capability of the system [are] something that we want to protect,” he said.

President George W. Bush has directed the deployment of some components of the system, including as many as six interceptor missiles, by the end of the year, and up to 20 missiles total are scheduled for deployment by 2006.

Oversight Criticisms

Critics have argued the agency is already too secretive, concealing from Congress and the public information regarding developmental progress, future deployment plans and costs, and testing to determine whether the system can or will ever work.

Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.) has criticized the administration’s decision to cancel nine scheduled flight tests shortly after Bush’s 2002 deployment decision.

“This was an unwise move that eliminated the very tests that must be conducted to show whether the system is effective,” according to a statement on his Web site.

“The system has also not been tested against realistic decoy balloons that any potential enemy might be expected to deploy. Fielding a system regardless of whether it is effective will not contribute much to the security of our country, and risks wasting billions of dollars on something that doesn’t work,” it says.

In pursuit of greater oversight, Congress this month passed legislation requiring an operationally realistic test of the system by next October as well as the establishment of cost, schedule, and performance baselines for each two-year developmental phase of the system.

Obering said the agency has “done the stand-down now for two years” of flight testing the system’s available components, but said he is planning “at least three flight tests per year over the next several years” and that those tests would be “increasingly challenging.”

The first such test, after multiple delays this year, is scheduled for early December, he said.

Criticisms Challenged

Obering’s presentation, arranged by the nonprofit Marshall Institute, addressed a number of criticisms, including that missile defense is being deployed for political reasons, that it will not be effective against a North Korean threat, and that “we’re not going to have a public debate over whether the system works.”

He denied any political pressure to deploy the system, noting the decision to deploy components of a Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system by the end of 2004 was made by Bush in December 2002.

“I will stand here and tell you this, I have not received one phone call, one message, one pressure from anybody to deploy this system before any time [or] date. … It has always been an event driven program,” he said.

Obering said the agency was confident, based on testing so far and on threat expectations, that the components of the system would provide an effective defense against a near-term North Korean long-range missile launch.

“North Korea is a closed society ð–— but [with what] we can ascertain, what we believe ð— we feel confident that this system will provide us more than just a rudimentary capability against that threat,” he said.

Obering said he could not say how much the national missile defense system might cost over its lifetime because the government has chosen not to decide on a fixed architecture indicating what it might look like.

Addressing the criticism that the agency has been unwilling to have a public debate over that supposed capability, Obering said he anticipates greater restrictions on information in the future.

He said, for instance, that the agency would not specify the flight test schedule and “would not go into details” on the types of targets and countermeasures the system would face in testing.

“We’re not trying to hide things with respect to the American public. What we’re trying to say is we have to take a really hard look at this now in terms of an operational capability in the future, of what we need to protect in terms of critical information,” he said.

 


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