The United States released this photo today, showing trucks at an Iraqi explosives bunkers at al-Qaqaa about two weeks before the U.S.-led invasion began (U.S. Department of Defense photo). U.S. News Videotape Shows Explosives at Iraqi Site A U.S. television station on Wednesday aired a videotape made by one of its news crews that shows a large amount of explosives at the Iraqi al-Qaqaa facility nine days after coalition forces captured Baghdad, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 28)...Full Story

Iran-EU Talks to Continue Nov. 5, Diplomats Say Nuclear negotiations held this week between France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Iran are expected to be followed by another round beginning Nov. 5 in Paris, diplomats told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 29)...Full Story

Efforts to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Should Focus More on “Failed States,” Report Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — International efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism should focus more on so-called “failed states” rather than the nuclear programs being pursued by Iran and North Korea, according to a report released this week by the Foreign Policy Center, a British think tank (see GSN, Oct. 20)...Full Story

	Friday, October 29, 2004

Security Flaws Found at Russian Nuclear Plants There are “serious shortcomings” in security at three Russian nuclear power plants located in the western section of the country, Russian Deputy Prosecutor General Vladimir Kolesnikov said yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 18). “Certain steps to modernize the security systems were taken, but the problems still persist,” Kolesnikov was quoted by RIA Novosti as saying. He did not offer details on the troubles at the plants at Kola, Novovoronezh and Smolensk (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 28) Back to top

U.S. Homeland Security Department Expects Research Advancements in WMD Detection, Countermeasures By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Homeland Security Department expects over the coming decade to make strides in radiological detection, WMD-countermeasure development and environmental monitoring, one of the department’s top research officials said here yesterday. Homeland Security research must also become more responsive to the ultimate users of its work, said Nancy Suski, who directs emergency-response efforts in the department’s Science and Technology Directorate. “The partnerships that we have with operational end users … are an absolutely critical component of making this an enduring national-security capacity,” Suski said. Suski, who previously managed Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Nonproliferation, Arms Control and International Security Directorate, spoke as part of a panel convened by the National Academy of Sciences of technology officials from various federal agencies. The academy asked the panelists to describe their agencies’ recent technology successes and their goals for the coming years. Looking ahead to 2015, Suski said that emergency responders would be better equipped and trained, that development of countermeasures against biological and chemical weapons would be accelerated and that real-time environmental monitoring would be needed to help sniff out incipient attacks and other incidents. She said Homeland Security still has “a long ways to go” in developing better nuclear-material detection, in particular. Suski expressed hope for a system of continuously updated analyses of terrorism threats and U.S. vulnerabilities. Homeland Security was charged at its creation with developing such a system but so far has reportedly made little progress. Another panelist, Assistant Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Paul Gilman, said his agency has refocused its research work since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. “With the increasing focus on homeland security, we’ve kicked into gear a much more substantial research effort” in areas related to emergency response, said Gilman, who heads the agency’s Office of Research and Development. Gilman said the agency is working with the Energy Department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to increase the number of monitoring stations that collect data for models used to predict the path of potential airborne substances emanating from an attack site. He added that the agency has placed a higher priority on technology to detect pathogens in water and on modeling of water-distribution systems, with an eye to protecting the public water supply. Gilman said the agency is working on technology to decontaminate buildings in case of a WMD attack. “Our benchmark really is anthrax because of our recent exposure to that,” he said. The agency is also adapting environmental risk-assessment tools, normally used to gauge long-term exposure to contaminants, so that emergency personnel can use them over shorter periods, such as in the days following a terrorist attack. Back to top

U.S. News Videotape Shows Explosives at Iraqi Site A U.S. television station on Wednesday aired a videotape made by one of its news crews that shows a large amount of explosives at the Iraqi al-Qaqaa facility nine days after coalition forces captured Baghdad, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 28). The videotape shown by an ABC affiliate in Minnesota gave credence to warnings made by Iraqi officials earlier this month that nearly 380 tons of explosives were stolen from the site following the overthrow of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, the Times reported. The Bush administration has suggested that the explosives — some of which could be used to detonate nuclear weapons — might have been moved by the Hussein regime prior to the U.S. invasion, according to the Times (Broad/Sanger, New York Times, Oct. 29). U.S. defense officials said yesterday, though, that satellite images show truck convoys at several Iraqi weapons sites prior to the U.S. invasion, according to the Washington Times. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency has “documented the movement of long convoys of trucks from various areas around Baghdad to the Syrian border,” an official said, adding that trucks were believed to have carried shipments that included nuclear weapons-related equipment (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Oct. 29). The International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday that U.S. officials had been warned of poor security of the explosives at the al-Qaqaa site after the Tuwaitha nuclear complex was ransacked in April 2003. “After we heard reports of looting at the Tuwaitha site in April 2003, the agency’s chief Iraq inspectors alerted American officials that we were concerned about the security of the high explosives stored at al-Qaqaa,” IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. “It is also important to note that this was the main high explosives storage facility in Iraq, and it was well-known through IAEA reports to the Security Council,” she added. The agency also attempted yesterday to clarify recent reports that the amount of missing explosives from the site may have been less than that reported by Iraqi officials, according to the Associated Press. Citing agency documents, ABC News reported that Iraqi officials declared that 141 tons of RDX explosives were stored at al-Qaqaa in 2002 but that only three tons were at site at the start of 2003. Fleming said, though, that about 125 tons of RDX was housed at a storage site about 30 miles outside the main al-Qaqaa facility, but still under its jurisdiction (William Kole, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 28). An Iraqi insurgent group claimed yesterday to have obtained some of the missing explosives from al-Qaqaa, according to the Associated Press. In a videotape, a group calling itself al-Islam’s Army Brigades, al-Karar Brigade, said it had worked with members of “the American intelligence” to obtain “a huge amount of the explosives that were in the al-Qaqaa facility.” The group’s claims have not been verified, AP reported (Associated Press, Oct. 28). Meanwhile, experts have said that too much emphasis may be being placed on the missing 377 tons of explosives from the al-Qaqaa site, according to the Washington Post. Based on prewar estimates of Iraq’s ammunition holdings and figures released this week by the White House of the destruction of munitions so far, at least 250,000 tons of ammunition in Iraq could remain unaccounted for, the Post reported. “There is something truly absurd about focusing on 377 tons of rather ordinary explosives, regardless of what actually happened at al-Qaqaa,” Anthony H. Cordesman, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in an assessment released yesterday. “The munitions at al-Qaqaa were at most around 0.06 percent of the total.” Another more pressing concern is that nuclear-related equipment has been apparently looted from Iraqi sites, according to Harvard University nuclear expert Matthew Bunn. “That material, which would be quite useful to a nuclear weapons program, was also well known to the United States, was not guarded and today is probably in hostile hands,” he said (Graham/Ricks, Washington Post, Oct. 29). Back to top       Iran-EU Talks to Continue Nov. 5, Diplomats Say Nuclear negotiations held this week between France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Iran are expected to be followed by another round beginning Nov. 5 in Paris, diplomats told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 29). “The EU has a positive feeling about the meeting yesterday. The talks were substantive,” said an EU diplomat regarding Wednesday’s negotiations. “The next round will be in Paris on Nov. 5,” said a diplomat from one of the European powers, adding that Iranian negotiators implied during Wednesday’s meeting that Tehran could agree to halt uranium enrichment for a brief period. “Their opening gambit was for the suspension to last two or three months,” said the diplomat. The European states have said they would support the United States in calling for Iran’s case to be referred to the U.N. Security Council if an enrichment suspension is not set before the Nov. 25 International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting. “They need to agree to the suspension by around Nov. 10 in order for the U.N. to verify it in time for the Nov. 25 board meeting,” the diplomat said. The agency typically sends a report to board members 10 days before meetings, according to IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming (Francois Murphy, Reuters, Oct. 28). The U.N. agency has pledged a guaranteed supply of nuclear reactor fuel to eliminate Iran’s need for enrichment technology, Western diplomats told Reuters today. Iran has demanded a guaranteed nuclear fuel supply from the European states, concerned that a supply from countries such as Russia could be subject to outside influence, Reuters reported. “Iran is afraid that the U.S. could put pressure on Russia to halt its fuel supplies to Iran and they would not have fuel for their reactors,” a diplomat said. Iranian officials were not available for comment, according to Reuters (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Oct. 29). Meanwhile, Iranian officials said today they believe there is only a 10-percent chance the Security Council would impose economic sanctions on Tehran, citing cooperation with the U.N. agency and support from key Council members such as Russia and China, Reuters reported. “Iran has given reports on its nuclear activities, it has signed the Additional Protocol (on snap nuclear inspections) and has proved its commitments to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” the ISNA student news agency quoted Hossein Mousavian, foreign policy committee secretary at the Supreme National Security Council, as saying. “Therefore, even if Iran’s case is sent to the Security Council, we are more than 90 percent sure no economic sanctions will be imposed on Iran because our nuclear activities have been peaceful,” he added (Paul Hughes, Reuters, Oct. 29). Back to top       Efforts to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Should Focus More on “Failed States,” Report Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — International efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism should focus more on so-called “failed states” rather than the nuclear programs being pursued by Iran and North Korea, according to a report released this week by the Foreign Policy Center, a British think tank (see GSN, Oct. 20). “Each failing state is like hundreds of actors with too wide of a variety of motives and too low a visibility for them to be easily deterred,” says the report, written by Amitai Etzioni, a former senior adviser to the Carter administration. Etzioni singled out Russia and Pakistan, which he wrote are “most in need of repair.”   Among the concerns regarding Russia, according to the report, are the large amount of poorly secured fissile materials and small nuclear weapons, “rampant” corruption and Moscow’s weak control over various provinces. Etzioni also criticized efforts since the fall of the Soviet Union to return to Russia Soviet-era nuclear weapons and highly enriched uranium from countries outside its borders. Over the past few years, the United States and Russia have jointly conducted several missions to repatriate Russian-origin fuel from research reactors in Bulgaria, Romania and Yugoslavia. Instead of returning this material to the “failed state” of Russia, Etzioni wrote, it would have been better to transport it to a “stable” country such as France for disposal. “Given how ineffectual and corrupt the Russian government is, it fully qualifies as a failing state,” he wrote. “These bombs and materials should be moved to a truly reliable safe haven and blended down there.” Regarding Pakistan, the report says that terrorists could acquire nuclear weapons from Islamabad’s arsenal by overthrowing the present government, working with some sections of the government or by corrupting those responsible for nuclear weapons security. The poor security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is often ignored because of the country’s assistance in the war on terrorism, Etzioni wrote. As an example, he accused the United States of ignoring in 2003 reports of the international nuclear network headed by top Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan in order to obtain Islamabad’s aid in efforts to capture terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden. “This is like letting a serial killer go because he promised to help catch an inebriated driver,” Etzioni wrote. In addition to Russia and Pakistan, there are a “considerable number” of other failing states around the world where terrorists may be able to steal or purchase highly enriched uranium for use in a crude nuclear bomb, according to Etzioni. These include Ghana, Kyrgyzstan and Nigeria, the report states. It also warns of countries that may turn into failing states “in short order,” such as Egypt. Etzioni recommended that failing states should be pressured and offered incentives to surrender their stockpiles of highly enriched uranium in exchange for low-enriched uranium, other energy stockpiles or economic resources. Should such efforts fail, he wrote, then it may become necessary to use “all available means” to remove HEU stockpiles from these countries. While praising many of the recommendations made in Etzioni’s report, Charles Ferguson, a nuclear nonproliferation expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted yesterday the difficulties the United States and its allies would face in removing nuclear materials and weapons from Russia and Pakistan. He cited the intense national pride Pakistan places on its nuclear arsenal, as well as Islamabad’s belief that it serves as a deterrent against nuclear-armed rival India. “A forcible removal of HEU or nuclear weapons from Pakistan could precipitate the very event we are hoping to prevent. That is, it could lead to a collapse of the Pakistani government and loss of control of these materials and weapons,” Ferguson said in a written statement to Global Security Newswire.  “The Pakistani government may also consider in extremis a nuclear attack against the nation or coalition of nations seeking to ‘deproliferate’ Pakistan,” he added. Back to top       North Korea Working Talks Possible for November Negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict over North Korea’s nuclear program could resume with working-level talks next month, diplomats told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 28). “The Chinese side wants to have any form of meeting as soon as possible,” said a diplomat who has been involved in the talks. “The Americans wish to have the working group meeting in November.” “A plenary meeting I think will be impossible, but maybe working groups,” he added (Reuters, Oct. 28). Meanwhile, Pyongyang said yesterday that a U.S.-sponsored naval WMD-interdiction drill held Tuesday off the coast of Japan (see GSN Oct. 26; GSN, Oct. 28) could undercut efforts to resume nuclear talks, Reuters reported. The maneuvers constitute “a breach of the Charter of the United Nations, international law and order and a dangerous act that could entail global instability,” North Korean U.N. Ambassador Pak Gil Yon wrote Tuesday in a letter to Secretary General Kofi Annan. Pak charged that the exercise “expressly represents an arrangement for the pre-emptive attack against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” and “will create an obstacle to the peaceful solution of the nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula” (Irwin Arieff, Reuters, Oct. 28). A former South Korean lieutenant general and current chairman of Seoul’s Emergency Planning Commission said today that long-term resolution of the nuclear standoff would only become possible once the communist regime in Pyongyang is replaced with a democracy, Reuters reported. “A permanent solution to the North Korean nuclear issue does not seem possible until free democracy is established on the entire Korean Peninsula,” said Kim Hee-sang. “I am not very optimistic on the results of the six-party talks” (Martin Nesirky, Reuters, Oct. 29). Elsewhere, Lee Bu-young, chairman of South Korea’s ruling Uri Party, yesterday advised Japanese leaders against placing economic sanctions on North Korea in response to the nuclear standoff and other issues, the Kyodo news agency reported. Lee told Democratic Party of Japan President Katsuya Okada that sanctions could trigger “something unwanted by both Japan and South Korea to happen,” according to a lawmaker in Okada’s party. “North Korea is aware that assistance from both our countries is important and is opening its doors to Japan,” Lee was also quoted as saying (Kyodo/Monjok Tongshin, Oct. 28). Back to top       Bolton Suggests Referring South Korean Nuclear Case to U.N. Security Council U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton has suggested that referring South Korea to the U.N. Security Council for its past nuclear experiments may be a way to prove that Seoul was not seeking nuclear weapons, the Yonhap news agency reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 12). A U.S. official quoted Bolton as saying, “There can be many ways to deal with South Korea’s nuclear material experiments. If they were just scientific experiments, not part of a nuclear program, one way can be reporting the case to the U.N. Security Council.” Bolton made his comment last week during a meeting with South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choi Young-jin, the official said. The International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors is set to meet next month to decide whether to refer South Korea to the Security Council for its nuclear experiments, which involved small amounts of enriched uranium and plutonium. South Korea has opposed having the Security Council consider its case, as it could imply that Seoul’s past nuclear effort is comparable to the suspected atomic weapons programs of North Korea and Iran, Yonhap reported (Yonhap/BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Oct. 28). Back to top       ElBaradei Calls for Improved Nuclear Export Controls International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei yesterday called for discussions on improving export controls of nuclear technology to be part of next year’s Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference. “The nuclear export control system should be universalized and treaty-based, while preserving the inalienable rights of all states to peaceful nuclear technology,” ElBaradei wrote in an article published in a U.N. review (see GSN, May 28). He also wrote that the treaty remains “the essential anchor” for international nuclear nonproliferation. More countries should be added to the treaty, according to ElBaradei (Agence France-Presse/TurkishPress.com, Oct. 28). Back to top       Air Force to Study ICBM Alternatives The U.S. Defense Department has given the Air Force permission to analyze alternatives for upgrading its land-based nuclear arsenal, Inside the Air Force reported today (see GSN, June 25). The Air Force is also expected to conduct another analysis of alternatives for improving or replacing its Minuteman 3 arsenal, officials said. The United States has about 500 Minuteman 3s, but plans to decommission them by 2012 (Hampton Stephens, Inside the Air Force, Oct. 29). Back to top

Canada Testing Plague, Anthrax Detection Kits The Canadian Food Inspection Agency is testing chemical kits that could detect the presence of plague or anthrax contamination in food in as little as 25 minutes, the Canada National Post reported (see GSN, April 30, 2003). The two toxins, however, are more effective as biological weapons when delivered through means other than food, agency officials said. Bacteria in food are generally eliminated through cooking and processing, according to the Post. Transmission of such bacteria through food is “not effective, but that doesn’t mean people aren’t nervous,” said Barbara Lee, director of the agency’s food laboratory services. It can take seven to 10 days to obtain results from the agency’s current system for detecting anthrax infection in food, according to the Post. The new process is set to use DNA samples. The reliability of the process must be confirmed before it is used by government agencies, Lee said (Glen McGregor, National Post, Oct. 29). Back to top

OPCW Team Conducts Inspections at Anniston A team from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons arrived Tuesday at the Anniston Army Depot for its 10th  inspection of the U.S. chemical weapons stockpile at the Alabama facility, the U.S. Army announced (see GSN, Oct. 15). The organization is charged with verifying compliance with the international Chemical Weapons Convention, under which member states pledge to destroy their chemical weapons stockpiles.  The last OPCW inspection at Anniston occurred in May. Inspectors during this visit are verifying that accurate records of munitions are being kept after more than a year of transporting weapons to the depot’s chemical agent disposal facility for destruction, according to the Army (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Oct. 26).   Back to top

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