Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said today that a deal reached with European countries to suspend Iran’s uranium enrichment efforts was subject to future negotiations (AFP photo/Atta Kenare). Dissidents Claim Iran Obtained Weapon-Grade Uranium, Bomb Design From Khan The international nuclear network led by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan delivered weapon-grade uranium and a nuclear warhead blueprint to Iran, an Iranian dissident group claimed today. The group has provided accurate information about Iran’s nuclear program in the past (see GSN, Nov. 16)...Full Story

United Kingdom, Russia Sign MOU to Improve Efforts to Redirect Former Soviet Nuclear Weapons Personnel By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — British and Russian officials this month reached an agreement intended to strengthen efforts to redirect former Soviet nuclear weapons scientists and technicians to commercial work (see GSN, Sept. 24)...Full Story

President Bush Nominates Rice as Secretary of State, Hadley as National Security Adviser U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday nominated national security adviser Condoleezza Rice to replace Colin Powell as secretary of state; and Rice’s deputy, Stephen Hadley, to take her job as national security adviser, according to the New York Times (see GSN, Nov. 16)...Full Story

	Wednesday, November 17, 2004

President Bush Nominates Rice as Secretary of State, Hadley as National Security Adviser U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday nominated national security adviser Condoleezza Rice to replace Colin Powell as secretary of state; and Rice’s deputy, Stephen Hadley, to take her job as national security adviser, according to the New York Times (see GSN, Nov. 16). During his announcement, Bush said that Rice would show the world’s leaders “the strength, the grace and the decency of our country.” “Above all, Dr. Rice has a deep, abiding belief in the value and power of liberty, because she has seen freedom denied and freedom reborn,” he said (Richard Stevenson, New York Times, Nov. 17). Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) plans to conduct a confirmation hearing for Rice early next month, Lugar spokesman Andy Fisher said. The full Senate is likely to vote on her confirmation in early January, Knight Ridder reported. Rice’s tenure as national security adviser has received mixed reviews from experts, according to Knight Ridder. Senior administration officials and outside experts have complained of a foreign policy process within the White House that results in disputes never being fully settled — a process that has resulted in a lack of a formal policy on Iran, Knight Ridder reported. Rice and Hadley also failed to recognize the seriousness of the threat posed by al-Qaeda prior to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, according to the Sept. 11 commission. “She certainly gets high marks for staffing the president,” said David Rothkopf of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I thinks she gets less good marks for running the bureaucracy, for running a process that gave the president good choices.” Among Rice’s jobs as secretary of state would be pressing Iran and North Korea to halt suspected nuclear weapons programs and trying to repair European relations ruptured by the war in Iraq, according to Knight Ridder. Undersecretary of State John Bolton has been regularly mentioned as a candidate to serve as Rice’s deputy at the State Department, according to reports (Warren Strobel, Knight Ridder/AZCentral.com, Nov. 17). Hadley took responsibility for the inclusion of a now-discredited claim in the president’s 2003 State of the Union address that prewar Iraq had sought to purchase uranium from Africa, according to the Los Angeles Times. Hadley is also known for supporting the use of nuclear weapons as a deterrent against weapons of mass destruction, and for backing the creation of a national missile defense system, the Times reported. “He has always favored missile defense, and has had a skeptical but not unreasonable view of arms control agreements," said David Smith, an arms control negotiator during the Reagan and first Bush administrations (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 17).   Back to top       Pentagon Finds First Responders Inadequately Prepared for WMD Attacks Against Army Bases U.S. Defense Department inspectors have found that first responders are not prepared to respond to WMD attacks against U.S. Army bases, the Deseret Morning News reported Monday (see GSN, Oct. 7). “Plans to implement an Installation Preparedness Program for first responders were substantially fragmented and ineffective,” says an Army Audit Agency report obtained by the Morning News.  A survey of Army bases in 2000 found “that installation first responders weren’t adequately equipped, trained or funded to respond to all facets of a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and/or high-yield explosive incident,” the report states. In May 2001, the Army provided base commanders with “eight critical tasks” to help improve training, equipment and funding for first responders. The report found, however, such efforts have been “fragmented,” “ineffective” and “not adequate.” Officials overseeing different groups of first responders failed to coordinate training or consult with WMD specialists on training or equipment, while the Pentagon had not developed a doctrine for WMD training, the report states. In addition, money that was supposed to be used for training was regularly diverted to unrelated work. The report, though, is almost a year old, and Army officials said that improvement measures have been taken since its release, the Morning News reported (Lee Davidson, Deseret Morning News, Nov. 15).  Back to top

Dissidents Claim Iran Obtained Weapon-Grade Uranium, Bomb Design From Khan The international nuclear network led by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan delivered weapon-grade uranium and a nuclear warhead blueprint to Iran, an Iranian dissident group claimed today. The group has provided accurate information about Iran’s nuclear program in the past (see GSN, Nov. 16). “Khan gave Iran a quantity of HEU (highly enriched uranium) in 2001, so they already have some,” said Farid Soleiman, a spokesman for the exiled National Council of Resistance of Iran. “I would doubt it was given enough for a weapon,” he added. The group also claimed that Iran continues to secretly enrich uranium, despite an agreement formalized Sunday with France, Germany and the United Kingdom to suspend such activities. Soleiman said Khan provided Iran with a Chinese warhead design between 1994 and 1996. The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that Libya acquired the blueprint through Khan’s network, but has been unable to find out whether Iran did so as well (see GSN, Feb. 4). The National Council of Resistance of Iran is the political wing of the exiled People’s Mujahideen Organization. The U.S. State Department lists both as terrorist organizations (see GSN, Sept. 10). Soleiman said Iran continues to enrich uranium for military purposes at a site within the city limits of Tehran. The Center for the Development of Advanced Defense Technology, according to Soleiman, was previously located in Lavizan, where a suspected nuclear site was razed last summer (see GSN, June 29). He said the center had been moved since then. Soleiman said his group informed the International Atomic Energy Agency by letter of the site a few days ago. The group first provided accurate information about Iran’s then-undisclosed nuclear program in August 2002 when it revealed details of an enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy-water facility at Arak. Iran later declared the facilities to the U.N. agency (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2002) (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Nov. 17). Plans to manufacture uranium metal could be further evidence that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, Western diplomats and experts said yesterday, Reuters reported. “This looks like it was a program to make weapons-grade uranium metal disguised as one focused on making 19.7 percent enriched uranium metal,” David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and head of the Institute for Science and International Security think tank, told Reuters. An IAEA report released Monday, however, said Iran’s claims that the uranium metal work is for civilian purposes — specifically for use in a laser enrichment program — were “credible.” Western diplomats, however, were skeptical of the Iranian explanation. “There’s no reason why these guys should be playing around with uranium metal, and you don’t do laser enrichment to put electricity in a light bulb,” said a Western diplomat on the IAEA Board of Governors. Other experts also speculated that Iran could be hiding additional nuclear activities. “Iran could have nuclear activities hidden from the IAEA,” said Jon Wolfsthal, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The picture in Iran is clearer, but far from crystal.” Several diplomats agreed, saying the IAEA report included several more unexplained findings, including experiments with polonium 210. Polonium 210 can be used to spark a chain reaction in a nuclear weapon; Iran said it performed experiments with the substance more than a decade ago for use in atomic batteries, according to Reuters. The U.N. agency said it was “somewhat uncertain regarding the plausibility of the stated purpose of the experiments given the very limited applications of short-lived polonium 210 sources.” (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Nov. 16). Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official said today Iran’s pledge to the European powers to suspend uranium enrichment activities was only likely to last a few months, Agence France-Presse reported. “We will give the nuclear experts of both sides three months. If the work groups reach an agreement, suspension will not make any sense anymore,” nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian said. “Within three to four months at the most, we should reach a stage where we have an overall conclusion. If they come to no conclusion or say the only visible guarantee would be to halt enrichment altogether, Iran will not accept this,” he added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 17). Iranian President Mohammad Khatami warned today that the suspension was subject to further negotiations with the Europeans, scheduled to begin next month, AFP reported. “[Negotiators] will give the results of their work three months later. If the results are positive, it (the enrichment suspension) would continue,” Khatami said. “If the other side does not respect its commitments, we will not have any obligations either,” he added. Dutch Prime Minister and European Union President Jan Peter Balkenende, however, said the enrichment suspension must be verified quickly in order to prevent the Europeans from siding with the United States, which has been pressing for Iran’s activities to be referred the UN Security Council. “If this [verification] does not happen we will have no option but to go to the U.N. Security Council,” he said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 17). The United States, meanwhile, said yesterday that the agreement between Iran and the Europeans was a positive move but that the suspension would have to be implemented and verified, according to AFP. “This is a useful step,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. “But it doesn’t really make a difference until it’s implemented and verified, and that’s what counts.” (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 17). Elsewhere, a growing alliance between Iran and China could undercut U.S. influence on Tehran, the Washington Post reported today. China’s growing energy needs and Iran’s increasing desire for consumer goods have brought the two countries’ interests in line, Iranian officials and analysts have said. Beijing’s veto at the U.N. Security Council has also become one of the roadblocks to any U.S. hope for implementing sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program. China’s burgeoning trade with Iran is also lessening the effect of various U.S. economic embargoes, analysts in Iran said. “Sanctions are not effective nowadays because we have many options in secondary markets, like China,” said Hossein Shariatmadari, a conservative theorist and editor. China has also sold advanced military technology to Iran, the Post reported, including missile technology. In response, the Bush administration in April imposed sanctions on Chinese companies producing equipment that could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction. The growing ties between the two countries could also in part be a direct response to U.S. policy, Iranian analysts said. Washington has pursued a policy of containment of both Iran and China and “that’s created natural allies,” said political and economic analyst Siamak Namazi (Robin Wright, Washington Post, Nov. 17). Back to top       United Kingdom, Russia Sign MOU to Improve Efforts to Redirect Former Soviet Nuclear Weapons Personnel By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — British and Russian officials this month reached an agreement intended to strengthen efforts to redirect former Soviet nuclear weapons scientists and technicians to commercial work (see GSN, Sept. 24). On Nov. 4, the British Department of Trade and Industry and the Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency signed a memorandum of understanding on the joint Closed Nuclear Cities Partnership program. The effort, launched in 2002, seeks to reduce the proliferation threats associated with Russia’s downsizing and restructuring of its closed cities, which were created during the Soviet era for nuclear weapons research and production.  Proliferation threats include nuclear scientists and technicians selling their expertise to rogue states and terrorist groups, as well as the sale of technology and radioactive materials from the cities. Russia’s efforts to restructure its closed cities are expected to result in 15,000 job losses over the next five years, with additional layoffs expected in the following decade, according to the British Department of Trade and Industry.  While the threat of former Russian nuclear weapons personnel selling their skills to the highest bidder may have decreased since the mid-1990s, when Russia’s economy was in a poor state, the threat could surge again if Moscow does not effectively manage the reduction of its nuclear weapons complex, said David Vincent, the British official directing the program, in a interview with Global Security Newswire yesterday. This month’s agreement provides the program with an independent legal status in Russia, allowing it to publicize its activities within the country for the first time, according to the Department of Trade and Industry. The document is also expected to help resolve possible future administrative disputes between program officials and regional Russian officials by providing the program with increased clout, according to the department. In addition, it establishes a joint steering committee to help review program efforts and resolve future issues. The memorandum also has political benefits, according to the Department of Trade and Industry, such as noting the importance of the redirection of former WMD scientists in overall Russian nonproliferation efforts. The document also commits the United Kingdom and Russia to reach a bilateral agreement on issues such as tax exemption and liability protection for program activities, the department said. A dispute over liability protections resulted in an end to the U.S. Nuclear Cities Initiative in Russia — an Energy Department effort to support the restructuring of the Russian nuclear weapons complex — in 2003.  The issue is expected to be less of a source of dispute between the United Kingdom and Russia, however, because of the low concerns of potential risks from the types of projects carried out through the program, such as development of business plans, Vincent said. He also said the issue had been previously addressed in other British-Russian agreements, and such language would be probably be incorporated into any new agreement on the closed cities program.    The Closed Nuclear Cities Partnership program is now in place at six out of 10 Russian closed cities — Novouralsk, Ozersk, Sarov, Seversk, Snezhinsk and Zheleznogorsk. The program, to which the United Kingdom contributes more than $5 million annually, seeks to improve the economic viability of these sites and to redirect their personnel toward commercial projects by providing investment grants, personnel training, business partnering and general economic development.  So far, more than $4 million has been spent on 10 projects, resulting in the creation of about 350 new jobs in four closed cities. An additional 20 projects to promote business development have also been developed. The Siberian Chemical Kombinat used one of eight business plans developed through the program at Seversk to raise funds for the construction of a nitrogen trifluoride plant — a plant expected to create about 300 new jobs. About 25 additional grant projects and activities are being considered, according to the Department of Trade and Industry. A British governmental committee is set to meet next week to examine 12 projects costing an estimated total of about $3 million. Back to top       Russia to Acquire Unique Nuclear Weapon, Putin Says Russia plans to develop new nuclear weapons systems unavailable to other countries, President Vladimir Putin said today (see GSN, Oct. 28). “We have not only conducted tests of the latest nuclear rocket systems,” Putin said in televised remarks to a meeting of Russian generals.   “I am sure that in the coming years we will acquire them.” “Moreover, these will be things which do not exist and are unlikely to exist in other nuclear powers,” Putin added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 17). Russia is believed to be developing a new missile capable of carrying 10 nuclear warheads, according to the Associated Press (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 17). Back to top       Swiss Arrest German Engineer Swiss authorities last week arrested a German engineer suspected of aiding Libya’s past nuclear weapons efforts, German prosecutors said yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 27). The engineer, identified as Gotthard L., was arrested in Switzerland on Nov. 13, according to the German federal prosecutor’s office. He is believed to have been paid more than $4 million to support development of a uranium enrichment centrifuge for Libya, office spokeswoman Frauke Scheuten said.  International Atomic Energy Agency investigations have turned up the name of Gotthard Lerch, a German living in Switzerland, during the investigation of the black-market nuclear network formerly headed by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Associated Press reported (David Rising, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 16). Meanwhile, the U.N. agency has taken environmental samples from three warehouses in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates as part of its investigation into the international nuclear network, diplomats said yesterday. In a report on Iran’s nuclear program, the agency said that it took samples at three sites in an unnamed location where Iran claimed that uranium enrichment equipment it purchased through the network were stored in the mid-1990s, Reuters reported. Two diplomats said the samples were taken in Dubai. The agency has said that Dubai was the headquarters of the network headed by Khan, who has confessed to providing nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. The samples are being analyzed. Results could back Iran’s claims that traces of enriched uranium on the equipment were present before Tehran purchased it, according to Reuters (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Nov. 16). Back to top       North Korea Could Give Up Nuclear Program, Roh Says North Korea could be persuaded to relinquish its suspected nuclear weapons program in exchange for various forms of assistance, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said today, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported (see GSN, Nov. 16). “Some radicals argue North Korea is just foot-dragging without being serious about negotiating, but our government does not think so,” Roh told the Brazilian newspaper Estado de Sao Paulo during a two-day business trip to Brazil. Roh said anti-U.S. sentiment among some South Koreans could be a reflection of their desire for a more balanced relationship. “We would be able to get over it if South Korea and the United States maintain a healthy cooperation under the ‘give and take’ rule about major issues,” he said (Deutsche Presse-Agentur/Khaleej Times, Nov. 17). Back to top

Mustard Agent Leak Detected at Deseret Depot Mustard agent vapor was found leaking from two 155 mm projectiles Tuesday in a storage igloo at the Deseret Chemical Depot in Utah, the U.S. Army announced (see GSN, Nov. 12). Depot workers placed the munitions in larger airtight containers, and no vapor escaped the igloo, according to an Army press release (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Nov. 16). Back to top       DuPont Develops VX Byproduct Treatment Technology Two new technologies could allow DuPont to better treat the byproduct of VX nerve agent neutralization, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Sept. 17). The U.S. Army plans to neutralize 1,269 tons of VX stockpiled at the Newport Chemical Depot in Indiana, and plans now call for the byproduct, hydrolysate, to be shipped to a DuPont plant in New Jersey for treatment and ultimate disposal in the Delaware River. Separate DuPont technologies — oxidation pretreatment and a biological treatment — could address concerns that the current procedures do not remove enough phosphates from the effluent, DuPont spokesman Anthony Farina said. Oxidation has been used by DuPont to treat the hydrolysate of mustard agent, DuPont chemical engineer Todd Owens said, while the other process is a biodegradable method of removing phosphate using an isolated strain of bacteria. “If we are able to apply the new technologies to the Newport project, the technology is pretty promising,” Owens said (Associated Press/WHAS11..com, Nov. 17). Back to top

U.S. Missile Defense Would Be Ineffective Against Most Missile Attacks, Scientist Says The U.S. missile defense system, expected to become operational by the end of the year, might never significantly protect the United States from a missile attack, a U.S. scientist claimed in this month’s issue of Scientific American (see GSN, Nov. 15). The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is designed to intercept in space long-range missiles fired thousands of kilometers from the United States, writes Richard Garwin, a former member of the 1998 U.S. Ballistic Missile Threat Commission chaired by Donald Rumsfeld, now U.S. defense secretary. The system, however, would be ineffective against a short- or medium-range ship-to-shore missile — a far more probable threat, according to Garwin. The system is also likely to prove ineffective against long-range missiles, according to Garwin, because of the ease with which an enemy could equip a missile with countermeasures such as decoys and balloons. “The Pentagon must focus on the more immediate danger of short- and medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles, and the funds now being devoted to the [Missile Defense Agency’s] midcourse defense should be shifted to the development of alternative systems that would have a real chance of stopping ICBMs,” Garwin states. The focus should be on boost-phase defenses against long-range ballistic missiles, according to Garwin. ICBMs cannot release “credible decoys” while the rocket is firing in the early stages of its flight, he said. Garwin notes that even missile defense leaders, such as retired MDA chief Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish have testified that the soon-to-be-deployed system has only a “basic capability.” “My assessment, however,” writes Garwin, “is that the present missile defense approach is utterly useless against ICBMs of new or existing nuclear powers because midcourse countermeasures are so effective.” (Richard Garwin, Scientific American, November 2004).   Back to top

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