Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

    Issue for Tuesday, November 2, 2004

    Week in Review

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  nuclear  
Iran Could Agree to Six-Month Enrichment Freeze Full Story
Iraq Explosives Revelation Politically Motivated, Some Bush Administration Officials Say Full Story
ElBaradei Addresses U.N. General Assembly Full Story
IAEA Team Arrives in South Korea Full Story
Russian Submarine Conducts Successful Missile Test Full Story
Recent Stories

  biological  
NIAID Grants $3.5 Million for Anthrax Vaccine Study Full Story
Recent Stories

  chemical  
Army Destroys Last Sarin-Filled Rockets at Anniston Full Story
Tooele Resumes VX Destruction Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile1  
U.N. Disarmament Committee Approves Draft Text Calling on Countries to Join Hague Code of Conduct Full Story
Recent Stories

  other  
Russian Scientist Gives Up Plutonium Kept at Home Full Story
Recent Stories

 

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The timing probably is unfortunate, but there is a world out there other than the American election.
—IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, responding to charges that he timed the release of information about missing explosives in Iraq to affect the U.S. presidential election.


Iranian President Mohammad Khatami surrounded by Iranian lawmakers.  Khatami said today he was optimistic about talks scheduled later this week with three European countries on Iran’s nuclear program (AFP photo/Atta Kenare).
Iranian President Mohammad Khatami surrounded by Iranian lawmakers. Khatami said today he was optimistic about talks scheduled later this week with three European countries on Iran’s nuclear program (AFP photo/Atta Kenare).
Iran Could Agree to Six-Month Enrichment Freeze

Iran could suspend uranium enrichment for up to six months if the European Union revises its position that Tehran must give up enrichment entirely, a senior Iranian official told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 1).

“We can agree to a period of two to three months, maximum six months, to finalize the package,” said Hossein Mousavian, foreign policy committee secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.
..Full Story

Iraq Explosives Revelation Politically Motivated, Some Bush Administration Officials Say

Some Bush administration officials and supporters have accused International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei of orchestrating the scandal around explosives missing from the Iraqi al-Qaqaa military base to undermine President George W. Bush’s re-election bid today, the San Francisco Chronicle reported (see GSN, Oct. 25)...Full Story

Army Destroys Last Sarin-Filled Rockets at Anniston

The last of more than 42,000 M55 rockets filled with sarin nerve agent were incinerated Friday at the Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Alabama, the U.S. Army announced (see GSN, Oct. 29)...Full Story

Current Issue Tuesday, November 2, 2004
nuclear

Iran Could Agree to Six-Month Enrichment Freeze


Iran could suspend uranium enrichment for up to six months if the European Union revises its position that Tehran must give up enrichment entirely, a senior Iranian official told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 1).

“We can agree to a period of two to three months, maximum six months, to finalize the package,” said Hossein Mousavian, foreign policy committee secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

If the Europeans, however, continue to insist that Iran give up its nuclear fuel cycle work, “then, if not now, in some months we will reach a confrontation.”

There is a 50-percent chance that the two sides could reach a compromise before the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting later this month, according to Mousavian.

“The cessation of uranium enrichment is already rejected. It is our red line and if it is the Europeans’ condition then it is better to leave the talks now,” he said.

“(But) if the Europeans’ concern is to be assured that Iran’s (uranium) enrichment will never in the future be diverted from peaceful purposes ... there’s a very good chance of reaching a compromise,” he added (Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, Nov. 1).

Ahead of the next round of talks with France, Germany and the United Kingdom, scheduled for Friday in Paris, Iran is expected to meet in Vienna today with nonaligned states to the U.N. agency, diplomats told Agence France-Presse.

“The Iranians are trying to develop ways to put pressure on the Europeans, and this parliamentary vote is an example of that,” a Nonaligned Movement diplomat said of the vote by Iran’s parliament to resume uranium enrichment.

The “Iranians have not ruled out talks. They’re just trying to strengthen their position,” the diplomat added (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/IranMania.com, Nov. 1).

Iranian President Mohammad Khatami today said he remains optimistic about Friday’s talks, but added that Iran would not give up uranium enrichment as demanded by the European powers, AFP reported.

“Our nation must be given the assurance that it will not be stripped of its right (to enrich uranium),” Khatami said.

“I am optimistic,” he said, of the negotiations. “Both sides are showing flexibility.” (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 2).

Regardless of the outcome of today’s U.S. presidential election, the White House is likely to face a critical challenge in Tehran’s nuclear program, with Bush officials already studying options such as surgical air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Los Angeles Times reported.

“The argument will be that Iran policy is broken because … it was predicated on the false philosophical assumption that Iran can be denied nukes,” said an administration official.

Discussion of pre-emptive U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear installations is already widespread among experts in Washington, according to the Times. Other options range from seeking regime change to making a deal with Iranian leaders.

“I’ve heard discussion of between 20 and 40 (suspected nuclear) sites you’d want to hit to deter the program,” said Reuel Marc Gerecht of the American Enterprise Institute.

The administration is “very seriously” considering military action against Iran, said Michael Rubin, another AEI scholar.

“It’s fourth down and the two-minute warning is past,” Rubin wrote Friday in an e-mail to the Times. “Our willingness to forgive and forget has made the situation far more dangerous.” (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 2).


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Iraq Explosives Revelation Politically Motivated, Some Bush Administration Officials Say


Some Bush administration officials and supporters have accused International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei of orchestrating the scandal around explosives missing from the Iraqi al-Qaqaa military base to undermine President George W. Bush’s re-election bid today, the San Francisco Chronicle reported (see GSN, Oct. 25).

ElBaradei would like nothing better than to see President Bush lose,” said Clifford May, president of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy.

In the wake of the explosives scandal, Bush administration officials last week reiterated their opposition to ElBaradei’s bid for a third term as IAEA chief when it comes up for renewal next year, the Chronicle reported (see GSN, Nov. 1).

“The people I’ve talked to in the administration are absolutely convinced that ElBaradei is trying to defeat Bush, and what happened (last) week means they will do anything it takes to make sure that he doesn’t get another term,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

In an Oct. 1 letter to the U.N. Security Council, ElBaradei said there had been large-scale looting of weapons in Iraq. Iraqi official Mohammed Abbas then responded to ElBaradei’s request for more information with a report that explosives at al-Qaqaa were lost after the U.S. takeover because of “theft and looting of the governmental installations due to lack of security.”

Some of the explosives could be used to detonate nuclear weapons, according to reports.

“Did ElBaradei in some way persuade the Iraqi official that this letter was needed at this time because of the election?” said May. “This fuels the suspicion that ElBaradei is attempting to manipulate an American election by spreading false information.”

ElBaradei said Friday that the allegations were “total junk,” according to the Chronicle.

“The timing probably is unfortunate, but there is a world out there other than the American election,” he said (Robert Collier, San Francisco Chronicle, Nov. 2).

The sole source for the explosives story was a letter sent to the agency on Oct. 10 by Abbas, who works in the Iraqi Science and Technology Ministry, ElBaradei told the New York Sun yesterday.

“All we know (is that) the Iraqis reported to us the material is missing,” ElBaradei said. “We have been out of Iraq for a long time. If it were destroyed I would be very happy, if it hasn’t been destroyed I’d be very worried. But I have no clue.”

Officials in the U.S. Defense and State departments question whether Abbas had authorization from his government to write the letter, a Washington source told the Sun.

IAEA officials waited for five days after the letter arrived in the agency’s Vienna offices before passing it to the U.S.-led coalition for verification, an IAEA official told the Sun. During that time, the official said, the Iraqi interim government’s mission in Vienna confirmed that the letter was authentic.

ElBaradei also denied that he hoped to prompt Abbas to report the missing explosives through the Oct. 1 Security Council briefing.

“I have a legal obligation to report to the council every six months,” ElBaradei said. Since 1991 “we have this mantra that we should get this information from the Iraqis” (Benny Avni, New York Sun, Nov. 2).

Meanwhile, the French newspaper Liberation reported allegations today that ElBaradei has been helping Egypt hide a secret nuclear program and that the defunct Libyan nuclear program “had Egyptian links,” Agence France-Presse reported.

Libya had “worked not only for itself but also, secretly, for the Egyptians,” according to Liberation. The charges “by ricochet now are reaching Mohamed ElBaradei, accused by some diplomatic missions of using his influence as the head of the IAEA to put the brakes on the agency truly plunging into this dossier,” the newspaper stated.

An IAEA spokesman did not comment on the allegations.

Egypt’s ambassador to the U.N. agency said the report was “totally baseless.”

“There is no clandestine program and therefore there is no dossier,” Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy told AFP. “The issue of a connection between Egypt and Tripoli in the nuclear field is totally baseless” (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 2).


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ElBaradei Addresses U.N. General Assembly


International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei yesterday called on Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities and said that North Korea needs to fully reveal its nuclear efforts, according to Reuters (see GSN, Nov. 1).

Tehran’s cooperation in assisting the IAEA investigation of its nuclear program had improved “appreciably,” ElBaradei said in his annual speech to the U.N. General Assembly. He said, however, that Iran should suspend its enrichment and reprocessing activities as a confidence-building measure.

ElBaradei said that North Korea’s nuclear efforts pose “a serious challenge to the nuclear nonproliferation regime.” The U.N. agency cannot “provide any level of assurance about the nondiversion of nuclear material,” he said (Evelyn Leopold, Reuters, Nov. 1).

In response, North Korean Deputy U.N. Ambassador Kim Chang Guk yesterday slammed the agency as “a political tool of the superpower.”

ElBaradei criticized yesterday the slow progress being made by six-party talks, involving China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States, in resolving the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

“I’m telling the North Koreans again that the international community is ready to look into your security concerns, ready to look into your economic and humanitarian needs,” he told reporters. “But a prerequisite is for them to commit themselves to full, verifiable, dismantlement of their weapons program — as they say they have a weapons program” (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 2).

In his address yesterday, ElBaradei also called for the return of IAEA inspectors to Iraq, “particularly in view of the dual-use items that have been under IAEA custody in Iraq that would be susceptible to misuse” (Leopold, Reuters).


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IAEA Team Arrives in South Korea


A five-member International Atomic Energy Agency team arrived today in South Korea for a six-day visit as part of the agency’s investigation into Seoul’s past nuclear experiments involving enriched uranium and plutonium, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Nov. 1). The team is expected to present its findings later this month to the IAEA Board of Governors, which could send the case on to the U.N. Security Council for consideration.

This is the third group of IAEA inspectors to perform inspections and interviews in South Korea following confirmation of the nuclear experiments by the country’s leaders (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 2).


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Russian Submarine Conducts Successful Missile Test


The Russian submarine St. George the Victorious today successfully test-fired a Bulava ballistic missile, according to ITAR-Tass (see GSN, Sept. 22).

The missile, launched near Russia’s far eastern coast, was armed with a maneuverable warhead intended to counter missile defense systems, according to ITAR-Tass. Today’s test was the first this year conducted by a submarine from Russia’s Pacific Fleet (ITAR-Tass, Nov. 2).


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biological

NIAID Grants $3.5 Million for Anthrax Vaccine Study


The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases yesterday announced a $3.5 million federal grant to a Seattle research team for a study that could lead to an improved military anthrax vaccine, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 28).

The team at the Benaroya Research Institute has developed artificial molecules called “tetramers,” which could provide a more accurate test that could assist in development of an improved vaccine.

The effectiveness of vaccines is generally measured by the production of antibodies, according to lead researcher Gerald Nepom. That method is slow, indirect and incapable of evaluating the level of protection, he said.

“It’s like following footprints in the sand rather than watching someone as they run by,” he said.

With tetramers, scientists can directly observe the vaccine’s effectiveness, Nepom added (Associated Press/KGW.com Nov. 2).


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chemical

Army Destroys Last Sarin-Filled Rockets at Anniston


The last of more than 42,000 M55 rockets filled with sarin nerve agent were incinerated Friday at the Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Alabama, the U.S. Army announced (see GSN, Oct. 29).

“All 42,738 rockets, along with 24 rocket warheads, that were part of the chemical weapons stockpile at Anniston Army Depot have now been safely demilitarized,” said site project manager Timothy Garrett in a press release Friday (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Oct. 29).

Tens of thousands of sarin-filled artillery shells and weapons filled with VX nerve agent and mustard gas remain in storage at the depot, the Associated Press reported.

Destruction of the sarin-filled shells is expected to begin next month, according to AP (Associated Press/Tuscaloosa News, Nov. 1).


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Tooele Resumes VX Destruction


The Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Utah proceeded with chemical weapons disposal Friday after suspending work for more than a week to verify compliance with new federal air-quality regulations, the U.S. Army announced (see GSN, Oct. 25).

Workers have resumed processing the depot’s stockpile of spray tanks filled with VX nerve agent, according to the statement (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Oct. 29).

Meanwhile, Thaddeus (Ted) Ryba Jr. has replaced Dale Ormond as Tooele site project manager, the Chemical Materials Agency announced yesterday. Ormond was named deputy assistant secretary of the Army for the elimination of chemical weapons (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Nov. 1).


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missile1

U.N. Disarmament Committee Approves Draft Text Calling on Countries to Join Hague Code of Conduct


The U.N. General Assembly’s disarmament committee last week approved a draft resolution calling on all countries to join the Hague Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (see GSN, April 26).

The code requests that subscribers exercise “maximum possible restraint” in developing and deploying ballistic missiles and avoid aiding the ballistic missile programs of any countries that might be developing weapons of mass destruction. To increase transparency, it calls on members to implement several confidence-building measures.

The draft text was approved by a vote of 137-2, with 16 abstentions, according to a U.N. release. Egypt and Iran opposed the resolution.

Several of the countries that abstained expressed concerns that the code of conduct had not been negotiated within a U.N. framework (U.N. release, Oct. 27). 


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other

Russian Scientist Gives Up Plutonium Kept at Home


A Russian scientist reportedly provided eight containers of plutonium 238 to police today after storing the radioactive material in his garage for eight years, according to Reuters (see GSN, Oct. 20).

Leonid Grigorov discovered the 14 ounces of material in the garbage at his laboratory near the border with Kazakhstan and took the plutonium home to prevent it from falling into the wrong hands, Reuters reported. He turned the material over to local authorities after a newspaper advertised a reward for people to surrender weapons.

“As an expert, I knew that I had to (hide it) to avoid tragic consequences,” Grigorov was quoted by ITAR-Tass as saying.

Plutonium 238 could be combined with other materials to create a radiological “dirty bomb,” experts said (Reuters, Nov. 2).

 


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