International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei (shown in a Nov. 25 photo) praised a resolution reached today by the agency’s Board of Governors on Iran’s nuclear program (AFP photo). Iran Avoids International Sanction Over Nuclear Program By Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire VIENNA — Iran today successfully dodged today an escalation of the international response to its nuclear activities. A resolution completed by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors criticizes Iran for hiding two decades of nuclear research until recently, but does not refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, as some nations, particularly the United States, had sought (see GSN, Nov. 26). The resolution capped several days of turbulent talks that ended when agency officials confirmed today that Iran has suspended all of its uranium enrichment activities, including 20 centrifuges that Iran had sought to exempt from the suspension at the outset of the meeting...Full Story

China, Japan, South Korea Promise Greater Cooperation on North Korea Nuclear Standoff China, Japan and South Korea said today they would increase cooperation to resolve the standoff over North Korea’s nuclear program, Reuters reported (see GSN, Nov. 26)...Full Story

Brazil Reaches Tentative Inspections Agreement With IAEA The International Atomic Energy Agency has approved a Brazilian plan for inspections of its Resende uranium enrichment plant, the agency announced Thursday (see GSN, Nov. 16)...Full Story

	Monday, November 29, 2004

Intelligence Reform Supporters Optimistic Bill Will Pass This Year By Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Supporters of a stalled measure to create a national intelligence director said yesterday that they were optimistic the bill would eventually pass, but called on U.S. President George W. Bush to do more on its behalf (see GSN, Nov. 26). Earlier this month, House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) refused to hold a vote on a compromise intelligence reform bill reached by House and Senate negotiators because of the opposition of two influential House committee chairmen. Among the measure’s opponents was House Armed Services Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), who opposed the bill because of concerns that the measure could jeopardize the ability of military commanders to receive tactical intelligence. Lawmakers are expected to resume consideration of the measure when they return to Washington next week for a two-day session beginning Dec. 6, according to the House Republican leadership. Supporters of the stalled bill said yesterday they were optimistic it would eventually be approved. “I’m convinced that had the speaker brought the bill to the floor that it would have passed in the House, and I’m hopeful that now that his members have had more time to review the details of the bill that he will schedule it for a vote. I’m convinced that if he does it will pass,” said Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Chairwoman Susan Collins (R-Maine), who was one of the main Senate negotiators on the compromise bill. Former Sept. 11 Commission Co-Chairman Lee Hamilton said yesterday on NBC’s Meet the Press that he believed the odds were “60-40” that an intelligence reform bill would be passed this year. The commission included a proposal to create a national intelligence director among the recommendations it released this summer. During a joint appearance with Collins on FOX News Sunday, Hunter reiterated his opposition to the bill, which he said would weaken Defense Department control over satellite intelligence assets that provide battlefield intelligence to military commanders. “The satellites today are just like the cavalry was in the old days — it’s the eyes and the ears of our war fighters. We’ve got to maintain that lifeline … or we’ll be worse off than we were before,” Hunter said. Collins denied, though, that the bill would hinder military operations. “The commander-in-chief, our president, supports this bill. It’s inconceivable to me that the commander-in-chief would support a bill that in any way weakened or undermined the flow of intelligence to our troops,” she said. There has been little sign that either side will back down and resume negotiations on the bill when lawmakers reconvene next week. Collins and other supporters of the bill yesterday called for greater involvement by Bush to secure its final passage. “It’s up to the president now. I mean, we’ve got a week to try to bring this bill to a vote. And I think the president clearly wants it,” said Senator Joseph Lieberman (Conn.), the top Democrat on the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee and another key Senate negotiator. “If the president of the United States wants this bill, as commander-in-chief in the middle of a war, I cannot believe Republicans in the House are going to stop him from getting it,” Lieberman said on ABC’s This Week. Back to top

France, Libya Reach Agreement on “Strategic Cooperation” Libya has reached an agreement of “strategic cooperation and political consultation” with France, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 26). The pact came about during a visit last week to Tripoli by French President Jacques Chirac, according to the Times.  Chirac’s visit was the latest by European leaders following Libya’s decision late last year to renounce weapons of mass destruction. Such visits are intended to help Libya gain foreign investment to repair its battered economy, which suffers from high unemployment and inflation, according to Western diplomats (Andrew Borowiec, Washington Times, Nov. 29). Back to top

Iran Avoids International Sanction Over Nuclear Program By Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire VIENNA — Iran today successfully dodged today an escalation of the international response to its nuclear activities. A resolution completed by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors criticizes Iran for hiding two decades of nuclear research until recently, but does not refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, as some nations, particularly the United States, had sought (see GSN, Nov. 26). The resolution capped several days of turbulent talks that ended when agency officials confirmed today that Iran has suspended all of its uranium enrichment activities, including 20 centrifuges that Iran had sought to exempt from the suspension at the outset of the meeting. The resolution “is an important milestone on the long and difficult road to establish the nature of Iran’s nuclear program,” agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei told reporters after the meeting ended. The resolution “signals the commencement of a new phase,” said senior Iranian diplomat Sirous Naseri. “This board meeting was the first pit stop following Paris agreement for the whole of Europe to delivering on their end of the deal,” he said, referring to the pact signed earlier this month between Iran and three European Union countries, in which Tehran vowed to suspend its enrichment related-activities as long as future talks on normalizing trade and political relations continued. Despite the board resolution, the details of the suspension, particularly of the rules for the 20 centrifuges, remain muddled as Iranian diplomats and agency officials did not provide particulars to reporters. Iranian officials suggested that some activities could continue. “We said there would be no testing. Definitely we are not going to introduce any material, any [uranium] gas. We are not testing,” top Iranian nuclear negotiation Hossein Mousavian said this afternoon. ElBaradei did not explain further the details of the suspension, but expressed confidence that its terms would not permit any significant actions. “The suspension is comprehensive, is complete,” he said. “It does not include any activities that are related to enrichment or reprocessing. I want to make that very clear.  That includes the 20 centrifuges that are now under our surveillance.” Some nations nevertheless remained critical of the suspension details. “We see a Webster’s Dictionary definition of suspension,” said a Western diplomat. “To suspend something means ‘cease completely.’” The suspension was announced earlier this month following an agreement between Iran and three EU nations: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The scope of the suspension has been under debate since the beginning of last week, when Iran sent two letters to the agency disclosing that it would exempt as many as 20 centrifuge components from the suspension and that it would use them to continue research and development work. After lengthy weekend talks between EU and Iranian diplomats, however, Iran agreed to include the disputed equipment in the suspension, although the centrifuge components would not be placed under IAEA seal as agency inspectors have done with other machinery. Instead, the equipment would be monitored by cameras which could see if any work was underway. This issue had loomed over the board meeting, where many members, particularly the United States, remain skeptical that Iran’s nuclear activities are peaceful. Even agency Director General ElBaradei expressed a cautious note last week. “A confidence deficit has been created, and confidence needs to be restored. Iran’s active cooperation and full transparency is therefore indispensable,” he said in his statement to the board’s opening session Thursday. Observers here have questioned Iran’s strategy of announcing a roadblock shortly before the meeting, but a Western diplomat familiar with the agency said Iran’s decision process had begun two weeks earlier. Iran had come to the agency to ask which of two options the agency preferred: Iran would announce the exemption prior to the board meeting or it would announce it afterward. Ultimately, Tehran decided that the international backlash would be less if it disclosed its plans before the meeting began, according to the diplomat. That strategy also gave Iran some leverage in shaping the language of today’s resolution, which is significantly less critical and demanding of Iran than earlier versions. The Progression of Drafts The initial draft resolution, circulated Nov. 22, contained several elements that Iran found objectionable. In particular, Tehran opposed language asking it “to allow unrestricted access to all sites as deemed necessary by the agency.” Allowing inspectors complete freedom of movement in the nation would have been unprecedented with the exception of Iraq following the 1991 Gulf War. In addition, the Nov. 22 draft included “trigger language” calling on the agency’s director general “to report immediately to the board should the agency encounter evidence that the suspension is not fully implemented, or be prevented from monitoring all elements of the suspension.” Following meetings between the EU nations and Iran, European diplomats circulated a second draft that eased the disputed language. They rolled back the access demand, calling for “Iran to provide the access deemed necessary by the agency to all locations, in line with the Additional Protocol.” The additional protocol to a country’s IAEA safeguards agreement provides the agency with authority to conduct more intrusive monitoring of nuclear activities there. The trigger language was also modified, calling for the director general “to report without delay to the board should the agency find that the suspension is not fully sustained, or should the agency be prevented from verifying all elements of the suspension.” This language appeared to raise the threshold for reporting and reduce the time urgency for the director general to act. Today’s resolution includes additional changes in Iran’s favor. The access demand has dropped the phrase “to all locations,” and the trigger language no longer has any time element for the director general to report problems. Instead, it calls for the director general simply “to inform board members should the suspension not be fully sustained.” In addition, today’s resolution repeatedly notes that Iran’s suspension is a voluntary measure, one not required by any Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty commitments. Specifically, the resolution says, “This suspension is a voluntary confidence-building measure, not a legal obligation.” The resolution also affirms that Iran has the right to develop peaceful nuclear energy and does not call for the IAEA board to automatically discuss Iran at its next meeting. Instead, the resolution “requests the director general to report to board on his findings, as appropriate.” That language mirrors a formulation crafted earlier in the meeting for a statement on South Korea (see GSN, Nov. 26). U.S., Israeli Response The United States issued a scathing statement today blasting Iran’s nuclear behavior, criticizing its negotiating tactics and threatening to bypass the IAEA board by initiating a U.N. Security Council debate by itself. “Iran has repeatedly demonstrated bad faith, and the United States has long lost any illusions that Iran’s ultimate intentions are peaceful,” according to the nine-page statement, read in part to the board by U.S. Ambassador Jackie Sanders. Reuters reported yesterday that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said the IAEA and Europe were doing too little to prevent Iran from manufacturing nuclear arms. “Iran is making every effort to possess a nuclear weapon. It seems that the steps taken by the IAEA and the Europeans are insufficient to stop Iran’s nuclear program,” Sharon told Newsweek magazine. Back to top       China, Japan, South Korea Promise Greater Cooperation on North Korea Nuclear Standoff China, Japan and South Korea said today they would increase cooperation to resolve the standoff over North Korea’s nuclear program, Reuters reported (see GSN, Nov. 26). “The three countries will promote close consultations and cooperation for the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula through the six-party talks,” said a statement issued by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun. The three are meeting in the Laotian capital of Vientiane for talks on regional issues. On Saturday, foreign ministers from the three Asian powers expressed optimism that working level talks could be held next month (John Ruwitch, Reuters, Nov. 29). South Korea’s KBS television released an unconfirmed report Friday that negotiations were scheduled to begin in Beijing next month to set a date for a new round of formal talks, Reuters reported. “The members of the six-party talks have tentatively agreed to hold an unofficial meeting in Beijing some time between December 15 and 23,” a senior South Korean government official was quoted as saying. “The planned talks will likely last two to three days. The main focus of the December meeting will be on finalizing the schedule for the next working-level talks and a new round of formal negotiations,” the official said. A South Korean official familiar with the talks denied the report, according to Reuters, and officials in Tokyo had no comment (Reuters, Nov. 26). A Japanese newspaper also released an unconfirmed report Friday that a North Korean official is scheduled to visit the United States next month to discuss resuming six-party talks, Reuters reported. The informal negotiations in the United States are expected to take place in mid-December, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun quoted sources “knowledgeable with U.S.-North Korean ties” as saying. The U.S. State Department refused to comment on the report, according to Reuters. Separately, the Asahi Shimbun reported the details of a U.S. proposal made to North Korea in October 2002 when the crisis over North Korea’s nuclear program first broke. Washington offered to establish diplomatic ties with Pyongyang, a peace treaty, thermal electricity plants and removal of the regime from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism in return for an end to the North’s nuclear work, the Asahi quoted U.S. officials as saying (Reuters, Nov. 25). Meanwhile, South Korea is preparing to dispatch a special envoy to North Korea before the end of the year, senior South Korean officials told the Chungang Ilbo Saturday. “The envoy, if he goes, will urge the North to return to the six-nation talks as soon as possible, and to resume inter-Korean talks, which have been halted since August,” a ranking official said. The official added that U.S. President George W. Bush was informed of the plan earlier this month during a meeting with Roh in Chile, where Bush “expressed his understanding of South Korea’s initiative.” “We can now push forward for a dispatch of an envoy without reserve,” the official added (Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, Nov. 28). Roh is scheduled to begin a four-day visit to the United Kingdom tomorrow, Yonhap reported. Although the United Kingdom is not a party to the multilateral talks over North Korea’s nuclear program, it commenced diplomatic relations with Pyongyang in 2002 and has been providing aid to the impoverished country. “Seoul will be able to play a bigger role in handling those international affairs through closer partnerships with London,” said South Korea’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Lee Tae-sik (Yonhap/BBC Monitoring, Nov. 29). Meanwhile, the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization Friday announced that a plan to build two nuclear energy reactors for North Korea would remain suspended for a second year beginning December 1, Agence France-Presse reported. “The future of the project will be assessed and decided ... before the expiration of the suspension period,” the KEDO board said in a statement. “The preservation and maintenance work both on site and off site will continue,” it added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Nov. 26). Elsewhere, North Korea’s official Minju Joson newspaper Saturday accused the United States of waging psychological warfare in an attempt to overthrow the Pyongyang regime, AFP reported. A commentary carried by the official Korean Central News Agency said Washington is considering spending $2 million a year to smuggle radios into North Korea “and increasing hours of false propaganda broadcasting against it.” It also accused CIA Director Porter Goss of instructing U.S. intelligence operatives to conduct “offensive intelligence activities” against North Korea (AFP/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 27). Back to top       Brazil Reaches Tentative Inspections Agreement With IAEA The International Atomic Energy Agency has approved a Brazilian plan for inspections of its Resende uranium enrichment plant, the agency announced Thursday (see GSN, Nov. 16). “We have been able to reach an agreement in principle with the Brazilian government ... to verify the enrichment facility in Brazil, the Resende facility,” said IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei. He said the approach “will enable us to do credible inspections but at the same time take care of Brazil's need to protect commercial sensitivity inside the facility.” Brazilian Science and Technology Minister Eduardo Campos said uranium enrichment would begin before the end of the year, Reuters reported. ElBaradei did not confirm that Brazil had been given a green light to begin enrichment, but said he expected, “in the next couple of weeks (the agreement) will be finalized in a formal way.” Odair Dias Goncalves, president of Brazil’s National Nuclear Energy Commission, said the agency would not gain full visual access to centrifuges at the plant in order to prevent industrial espionage. “They agreed that it is not necessary to have unrestricted access,” Goncalves said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Nov. 25). Back to top       Pakistan Criticizes Report Alleging Khan Network Transferred Nuclear Weapons Designs to Iran Pakistan Saturday criticized a recent New York Times article suggesting that former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan transferred nuclear weapons designs to Iran, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Nov. 26). A CIA report released last week says that the international nuclear network headed by Khan provided Iran with designs for “components.” The Times article indicated that “components” referred to nuclear warhead designs, AP reported. On Saturday, though, Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Masood Khan criticized the Times article, AP reported. “The writer of the report has spun a strange web based on flimsy evidence, hearsay and snippets of conversations,” Khan said. “The CIA report does not mention any ‘designs for weapons or bomb-making components.’ Weapons and bomb-making are the writer’s own creative insertions” (Associated Press/USA Today, Nov. 27). Pakistan Reiterates “Minimum Deterrence” Policy Meanwhile, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz Saturday reiterated Islamabad’s nuclear weapons policy of minimum deterrence. “Pakistan believes in retaining minimum deterrence as a cornerstone of its national security policy,” he said. Stressing that Pakistan was a “responsible” nuclear weapons state, Aziz also said that Islamabad would “continue to play a positive role in international efforts aimed at nonproliferation” (Xinhua News Agency, Nov. 27). Back to top       IAEA Inspectors to Return to South Korea The International Atomic Energy Agency is set to send inspectors to South Korea next week for additional inquiry into Seoul’s past secret nuclear experiments, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Nov. 26). The IAEA Board of Governors Friday criticized South Korea for conducting secret plutonium and uranium experiments in 1982 and 2000, but stopped short of referring Seoul to the U.N. Security Council. The inspectors are expected to arrive next Monday for a four-day investigation, an official at the Science and Technology Ministry told South Korea’s Yonhap news agency. The visit would be the fourth by agency inspectors since South Korea disclosed the nuclear work earlier this year, according to AP (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 28). Back to top       United States, Belgium Launch Nuclear Trafficking Detection Initiative The United States and Belgium Wednesday signed an agreement to install radiation detection equipment at the Port of Antwerp in an effort to foil trafficking of nuclear and other radioactive materials, the U.S. Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration announced (see GSN, July 19). The agreement is part of NNSA’s Megaports Initiative (NNSA release, Nov. 24). Back to top       Vanunu Seeks Asylum Outside of Israel Israeli nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu said Friday that he is seeking asylum abroad, but has so far been unsuccessful (see GSN, Nov. 12). “I have asked for asylum in many countries, any state which would help me get out of Israel would be welcomed,” he told the Portuguese newspaper Publico. Vanunu said the countries that have rejected his asylum requests have included Canada, France, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States, among others. Vanunu was released from an Israeli prison in April after serving an 18-year sentence for releasing information on Israel’s nuclear program. The conditions of his release include a ban on leaving Israel and on speaking to foreign journalists without permission (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 26). Back to top

Anti-Cancer Drugs Could Yield New Anthrax Treatment A “cocktail” of anti-cancer drugs could be effective in treating late-stage anthrax infection, Voice of America reported last week (see GSN, Nov. 16). “All that we have against anthrax infections is antibiotics. With such an aggressive disease such as anthrax, we have literally hours to treat people,” said Svetlana Hopkins, a researcher at the National Center for Biodefense in Virginia. “[Patients] usually will come to the hospital a day later, two days later or three days later, meaning that we need a therapy for late-stage anthrax infection,” she said.  “We (researchers) were thinking that maybe we should look to (drug) ‘cocktails,’ mixtures of two or three components that compliment each other. We were looking for synergy.” Researchers have found at least some of the components for such a cocktail using protease inhibitors, a class of drugs used to treat certain forms of cancer and the HIV virus, Hopkins said. Protease inhibitors disrupt specific enzymes in cells. Three of the five protease inhibitors Hopkins tested on laboratory mice showed significant results when paired with antibiotics, she said (Michael Bowman, Voice of America, Nov. 25). Back to top

Iraqi Troops Discover Chemical Laboratory, Official Says Iraqi troops have discovered a laboratory with chemicals and instructions on producing poisons in the city of Fallujah, Iraqi national security adviser Qassem Dawoud said Thursday (see GSN, Nov. 1). Inside the laboratory, Iraqi forces discovered “manuals and instructions spelling out procedures for making explosives,” Dawoud said. “They also spoke about making anthrax” (Sameer Yacoub, Associated Press/Houston Chronicle, Nov. 25). Former U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix Thursday dismissed the find, according to Agence France-Presse. “Let’s see what the chemicals are,” Blix told the Oxford Union debating club in London. “Many of these stories evaporate when they are looked at more closely. … If there were to be found something, we would all be surprised” (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 25). Back to top       Switzerland to Provide $13 Million for Russian Weapons Disposal Switzerland has agreed to provide $13 million over five years to aid Russian chemical weapons destruction efforts, Agence France-Presse reported Friday (see GSN, Nov. 23). The aid will be provided through an agreement signed Friday in Moscow by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey, according to AFP. The funding is set to be used to aid the construction of two chemical weapons disposal sites to be built in the Ural region in 2005 and 2008 (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 26). Back to top

Pakistan Tests Short-Range Nuclear-Capable Missile Pakistan today conducted a successful test of its short-range, nuclear-capable Hatf 3 ballistic missile, the Pakistani military announced (see GSN, Oct. 12). The missile, also known as the Ghaznavi, has a range of 180 miles. India was notified ahead of today’s test, the Pakistani military said in a statement (Agence France-Presse/New York Times, Nov. 29). “The test was part of a series of tests planned ... in order to verify certain parameters and to further refine different subsystems of the missile,” the military said. “The flight data collected indicates that all the design parameters have been successfully validated” (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 29). Back to top

Canada Missile Defense Decision Expected Within Weeks as Bush Prepares for Visit Canada is expected to decide within weeks whether to join the U.S. missile defense program and perhaps permit the installation of missile interceptors on Canadian soil, the Washington Times reported (see GSN, Nov. 18). U.S. President George W. Bush is scheduled to visit Ottawa Nov. 30 (Levon Sevunts, Washington Times, Nov. 25). Back to top       Russia Tests Missile Interceptor Russia today conducted a successful test of a missile interceptor, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said (see GSN, Nov. 18). The test was conducted at a site in Kazakhstan, Ivanov reportedly told a meeting of the Russian Cabinet (MosNews.com, Nov. 29).             Back to top

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