The Russian Defense Ministry, headed by Sergei Ivanov (shown in a Dec. 2 photo), has taken over the administration of Russia’s export-control system, spurring the resignations of some civilian personnel. Some of the departed workers are “allergic” to the military, one expert said (AFP photo/Prakash Singh). Some Russian Export-Control Specialists Quitting, Expert Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Some Russian export-control officials are leaving the government rather than work for the Defense Ministry, which has assumed authority over Russia’s export control regulatory system for technology that could have WMD applications, an expert said Friday (see GSN, April 23). The departure of the trained personnel could create “gaps” and “loopholes” within Russia’s export-control system, said Igor Khripunov of the University of Georgia’s Center for International Trade and Security...Full Story

IAEA Chief ElBaradei Says North Korea Probably Has Four to Six Nuclear Weapons International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said he believes that North Korea has converted its stockpile of spent fuel rods into four to six nuclear weapons, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Dec. 3)...Full Story

Iran Refuses to Open Military Sites to IAEA Iran said yesterday it could not be required to open military sites suspected of housing nuclear weapons work to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Dec. 3)...Full Story

	Monday, December 6, 2004

U.S. Lawmakers to Resume Work on Intelligence Reform By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. lawmakers are expected this week to resume consideration of stalled legislation to create a national director to oversee the U.S. intelligence community (see GSN, Dec. 3). The intelligence reform bill is expected to be one of the main topics taken up by the House of Representatives as it reconvenes today. The bill, the result of weeks of negotiations between House and Senate members, has been in limbo since House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) refused to hold a vote on it last month. Hastert said that he wants a majority of House Republicans to support the bill before he will hold a vote. The bill has faced strong opposition, though, from two influential representatives — Armed Services Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) and Judiciary Committee Chairman James Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.). Sensenbrenner has opposed the bill because of concerns over a lack of provisions related to law enforcement and illegal immigration issues. Hunter’s opposition stems from concerns that the planned national intelligence director would disrupt the military chain-of-command and jeopardize the ability of commanders to receive battlefield intelligence, especially from spy satellites.  A congressional source said today that a deal had been reached with Hunter to include language in the bill saying that the authority of the planned director “shall respect and not abrogate the statutory responsibilities of the heads of the departments of the United States Government.”  At issue throughout the debate over intelligence reform is what role the defense secretary would continue to play in the intelligence community with the creation of the national intelligence director. Currently, the Defense Department controls the bulk of intelligence funding. Hastert’s office did not respond to calls for comment on the schedule this week for the bill’s consideration, including whether a vote would be held. The source said, though, that if the House were to vote on the measure tonight, the Senate would likely follow suit the next day. The compromise bill may now be facing, for the first time, a hurdle from the Senate side. On Friday, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R-Va.) reportedly expressed concerns similar to Hunter’s about the measure’s possible impact on the military chain-of-command. The congressional source said, though, that there was little concern over opposition from Warner, who has already backed the Senate bill. Facing repeated calls for greater White House involvement in the bill’s passage, President George W. Bush made the issue the focus of his weekly radio address Saturday. In his remarks, Bush stressed his support for the bill, placing the issue of intelligence reform among “everything necessary to confront and defeat the terrorist threat.” “I will continue to work with the Congress to reach an agreement on this intelligence bill. I urge members of Congress to act next week so I can sign these needed reforms into law,” Bush said. Supporters of the bill on both sides of the aisle said yesterday that they believed it would be approved in both the House and Senate if it were brought to a vote. “There is no question in my mind, at least, that if this bill were brought up for a vote in the House it would pass, it would pass with a goodly number of Republican votes, and probably most Democratic votes. It’s already passed in the Senate 96 to 2,” said Senator Jay Rockefeller (W.Va.), the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee. Rockefeller was referring to the vote tally for the Senate version of the intelligence reform bill, which was approved this summer. The House version of the bill was approved by a sizable margin, though not at large as seen in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) noted yesterday, though, the concerns of some of his colleagues beyond Hunter and Sensenbrenner, as well as the need to reach a compromise. “There are a lot of people who have questions because we’re talking about safety and security.   We’re talking about that soldier on the battlefield. We want to make sure he or she has good intelligence. And immigration is a huge issue that we’re going to keep addressing over this Congress, regardless of what’s in the bill,” Frist said on ABC’s This Week. “I think everybody’s going to come to the table in the best spirit of the way these bodies work, when they work well. We’ll come together and there will be compromise, but compromise that will be to the satisfaction of the majority of people in the House and the Senate,” he added. Senator Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who has been chosen as new Senate minority leader, said yesterday that Congress should not leave Washington until the bill is approved. “How can we leave town and not have this most important legislation passed? It may not be perfect, but no legislation is perfect. It’s something that we need to do, and the people of America are depending on us to do it,” Reid said on NBC’s Meet the Press. During a joint appearance on CBS’ Face the Nation, Rockefeller and Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) were divided on whether the bill could be handled when Congress formally reconvened next year. While Roberts said the issue of intelligence reform was likely to be discussed next year, Rockefeller said that waiting until then could kill the “momentum” for reform. “We won’t have the momentum of the 9/11 commission in exactly the same way. We won’t have the families of the victims in the same way. We won’t have American public opinion, people will be able to say in the Congress, we already tried that and it failed. It takes a lot of wind out of the sails,” Rockefeller said. Back to top

Some Russian Export-Control Specialists Quitting, Expert Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Some Russian export-control officials are leaving the government rather than work for the Defense Ministry, which has assumed authority over Russia’s export control regulatory system for technology that could have WMD applications, an expert said Friday (see GSN, April 23). The departure of the trained personnel could create “gaps” and “loopholes” within Russia’s export-control system, said Igor Khripunov of the University of Georgia’s Center for International Trade and Security. As part of a massive governmental reorganization effort launched earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin transferred control of Russia’s export-control framework from the Economic Development and Trade Ministry to the Defense Ministry.  The reorganization, which eliminated of about half of Russia’s Cabinet-level ministries, also saw the downgrading of the Atomic Energy Ministry to the Federal Atomic Energy Agency, which was first placed under the newly created Industry and Energy Ministry and then moved to the prime minister’s office. Khripunov did not detail how many export-control specialists have chosen not to work for the Defense Ministry. Noting that the ministry had a “very militarized culture,” he said that some of the departing civilians were “allergic” to the military and had been concerned of the negative impact of the association to their future employment prospects. There has long been concern that would-be proliferators may be interested in obtaining dual-use technologies from Russian entities. In a report released last month, the CIA listed Russia among those “supplier” countries of concern. Over the past year, Russian entities “continued to be eager to raise funds via exports and transfers” of technologies related to biological and chemical weapons, along with ballistic missiles, to a number of countries, including Iran, India and China, the CIA said (see GSN, Nov. 26). The CIA also warned that while Russia has made progress in developing a system of export-control regulations, “lax enforcement remains a serious concern.” Khripunov said Friday, though, that the departure of some export control specialists did not represent a “disaster.” More worrisome, he said, is the loss of “trained personnel” that the Russian government could ill afford to lose. Back to top       U.S. Presidential Commission on WMD Intelligence Likely to Continue to Meet in Secret A presidential commission created in February to study U.S. intelligence on WMD proliferation may continue to meet in secret until it releases its final report, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, May 27). Since its creation, the commission has met seven times behind closed doors, and has only issued brief public statements on its Web site, according to the Times. Among the commission’s responsibilities is investigating prewar intelligence on Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts and determining whether U.S. intelligence is effective in investigating other incidents of WMD proliferation. Over the past two weeks, the Times reported, U.S. President George W. Bush has also ordered the commission to review plans from the CIA, FBI and Defense Department on improving those agencies’ intelligence efforts. The commission is scheduled to issue its report by March 31, 2005. Commission spokesman Larry McQuillan said the panel needs to meet in private because of the nature of the topics discussed. “When you get into the nitty-gritty details of where are we strong and where are we weak in terms of intelligence gathering, you can’t really share that with people,” he said. The top Democrat on the House intelligence committee, Representative Jane Harman (Calif.), said, though, that she would prefer the commission to “build some public understanding” about its work “to reassure the public that lessons have been learned about intelligence failures on WMD” (Douglas Jehl, New York Times, Dec. 6). Back to top       Utah National Guard Forms WMD Unit A 20-member Utah National Guard unit trained to respond to WMD incidents was formed Thursday, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Nov. 23). The 85th Weapons of Mass Destruction Civil Support Team, formed from full-time Army and Air Force National Guard personnel, was organized to respond to calls from civilian authorities to identify suspected chemical, radiological or biological agents and offer response advice for WMD incidents, according to AP. “We look forward to becoming an extensive, highly visible and critical piece in Utah’s WMD response force,” said 85th Commander Lt. Col. Wendy Cline of the Utah Air National Guard (Associated Press/Salt Lake Tribune, Dec. 6, 2004).   Back to top

IAEA Chief ElBaradei Says North Korea Probably Has Four to Six Nuclear Weapons International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said he believes that North Korea has converted its stockpile of spent fuel rods into four to six nuclear weapons, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Dec. 3). ElBaradei said the conclusion was not drawn from any new intelligence but was based on his agency’s knowledge of Pyongyang’s capabilities and the time that has elapsed since the regime ejected IAEA inspectors. “I’m sure they have reprocessed it all,” he said of the 8,000 spent fuel rods formerly monitored by inspectors.  “The production process is not that difficult,” he said, referring to the conversion of rods into bomb fuel. Several U.S. experts agreed with ElBaradei’s assessment, according to the Times. ElBaradei’s comments “certainly create some pressure on the Bush administration,” said Robert Einhorn of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Would the North Koreans ever sell their plutonium? I don’t think so, but who knows?” he said. “It becomes more plausible if they think we are turning the screws on them. And it makes the military situation more difficult,” he said, because North Korea could scatter its arsenal, making it more difficult to target. The United States has estimated that North Korea has no more than two nuclear weapons. A spokesman for the National Security Council said he did not know of any change in the official U.S. assessment of North Korea’s capabilities (Sanger/Broad, New York Times, Dec. 3). North Korea announced Saturday that it would not resume six-nation talks on its nuclear program until a new U.S. foreign policy team was in place, Reuters reported. Officials from Pyongyang and Washington met twice last week in New York, according to North Korea’s official KCNA news agency, but no progress was made in restarting the multilateral negotiations. “Our analysis of the results of the contact in New York prompts us to judge that the U.S. side showed no willingness to change its policy toward us,” said a Foreign Ministry spokesman. “We are not impatient as regards the issue of the resumption of the talks, nor would we like to make a hasty final conclusion,” he said. “As the second Bush administration has not yet emerged, we would like to wait a bit longer to follow with patience what a policy it will shape” (Nesirky/Hwa, Reuters/philly.com, Dec. 5). Meanwhile, U.S. envoy to the six-party talks Joseph DeTrani is expected to visit South Korea on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss reviving the talks, the Associated Press reported. DeTrani is expected to visit China before traveling to South Korea and then Japan. South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-young also plans to visit China this month for talks on the nuclear standoff, AP reported (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Dec. 6). Back to top       Iran Refuses to Open Military Sites to IAEA Iran said yesterday it could not be required to open military sites suspected of housing nuclear weapons work to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Dec. 3). “It is not a matter of unlimited commitments and unlimited inspections,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi. “We will act in accordance with the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty], our duties and responsibilities,” he added. The agency has requested access to the Parchin military base east of Tehran, where U.S. officials have charged that Iran may be testing “high-explosive shaped charges with an inert core of depleted uranium,” according to AFP. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said that he had “every reason to expect that Iran will allow us to go” to Parchin. Asefi said Tehran has received no official request from the agency to inspect Parchin, but added that “we are ready to cooperate within the framework of our commitments with the IAEA.” Asefi also said comments Friday by former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani that the country’s uranium enrichment suspension would not last more than six months should not be interpreted as a rigid timetable, explaining that Rafsanjani only mentioned six months as an “example” (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Dec. 5). ElBaradei said he was satisfied with the level of access his inspectors have in Iran. “We do not have the authority to go everywhere,” ElBaradei said Saturday, but he said this was a “nonissue because we have received access to every facility we asked for in Iran.” As nuclear material might not be present at a suspected weapons site, the agency’s legal authority is “quite limited when you get into the area of nuclear weapons-related activity,” one diplomat said.  ElBaradei, however, rejected concerns that the inspection process might be too slow and give Iran enough time to hide material. “The easiest thing to look for is nuclear material because of the signature,” which inspectors discover through environmental samples, he said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Dec. 5). U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Friday that Washington could not compel Iran to grant IAEA inspectors access to suspect sites, Reuters reported. “I can’t make sure it is going to happen,” he said. “You can’t look in every cave that might be in Iran.” Powell also said Iran’s nuclear suspension deal with European nations last month was inadequate, but acknowledged Washington’s inability to gain international support to demand full access to Tehran’s military sites. “We have to remain uneasy about this (European agreement) because it is still only a suspension. ... We really need an end to that program,” he said. “It is a question of whether or not the international community ... will be diligent and will be persistent in pressing the Iranians to give us full disclosure of their programs,” he added (Saul Hudson, Reuters, Dec. 3). Iran yesterday denied allegations that ElBaradei conspired with Tehran to omit incriminating evidence about its nuclear program from his report to the agency’s Board of Governors ahead of their consideration of Iran’s case last week, the Associated Press reported. “Iran had no compromise or deals with anyone, including ElBaradei,” Asefi said, referring to U.S. allegations that ElBaradei eliminated details about Iran’s work with beryllium (Associated Press, Dec. 5). ElBaradei also denied the claim. “We never show a report to any single member” of the agency, “not the least of course an inspected country,” ElBaradei told AFP (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Dec. 4). Meanwhile, an Iranian official indicated that Tehran sped up its uranium enrichment activities during the past year to gain leverage in negotiations with European countries, the New York Times reported. Sirus Naseri, a member of the Iranian team negotiating a nuclear deal with France, Germany and the United Kingdom, yesterday was quoted in the Shargh newspaper as saying that Iran had mastered the nuclear fuel cycle last year. “We are in a better negotiating position for political work than last year,” he said. Former Iranian IAEA ambassador Ali Akbar Salehi said Wednesday that Iran had for the first time allocated money and facilities to produce “advanced centrifuges” for uranium enrichment, Shargh also reported (Nazila Fathi, New York Times, Dec. 6). Elsewhere, the U.S. Defense Department has begun scouting an area in the Holang desert of Afghanistan within 20 miles of the Iran border for a potential military base, the New York Sun reported. The base would mainly be used by the Afghan army, two Bush administration sources familiar with the plan said, but U.S. aircraft would also likely be deployed there. The base would expand U.S. options should Washington decide to use force to derail Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program, according to the Sun (Eli Lake, New York Sun, Dec. 6). Back to top       IAEA Begins Fourth Set of South Korean Inspections Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency today began their fourth mission to South Korea as part of the agency’s investigation into Seoul’s recently disclosed nuclear experiments, officials said (see GSN, Nov. 29). The four-member team arrived in South Korea yesterday and is expected to participate in a meeting this week between the agency and Seoul on improving inspections, according to a South Korean Science and Technology Ministry official. Earlier this year, South Korea admitted to having conducted experiments involving small amounts of enriched uranium and plutonium in 1982 and 2000 (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Dec. 5). Back to top       Russia Elevates Nuclear Arsenal in Response to Poor State of Conventional Forces The poor condition of Russia’s conventional military has led Moscow to emphasize the importance of its still-strong nuclear arsenal, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 26). “In the current situation the role of nuclear weapons for Russia is hard to overestimate,” said retired Gen. Makhmut Gareyev, president of the Academy of Military Sciences in Moscow. “Basically it is the only factor which can still ensure our country’s safety. We have nothing else to repel strategic military threats anymore.” Poor training and morale, outdated and badly maintained equipment and a technologically weak command-and-control system have beset Russia’s conventional forces since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Times reported. Moscow still maintains, however, a sizable nuclear arsenal of about 7,800 operational warheads, consisting of 4,400 strategic warheads and 3,400 tactical weapons, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Russia also has about 9,000 additional warheads in storage or out of service, the Times reported. In addition to using its nuclear weapons for deterrence, Russia also sees a prestige factor in its arsenal, according to the Times. “It shouldn’t be forgotten that Russia was invited to the G-8 because it has around 800 strategic missiles,” military analyst Victor Litovkin wrote recently in the weekly newspaper Moskovskie Novosti. “Strategic missiles remain the only chance to make the world respect Russia in the near future.” Some senior Russian officials share this view, according to Ivan Safranchuk, head of the Moscow office of the Center for Defense Information. “I do not exclude that [President Vladimir] Putin buys this argument to some extent,” Safranchuk said (David Holley, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 6). Back to top       Khan Investigation Has Stalled Due to Lack of Cooperation From Nations, Officials Say Diplomats and officials from several countries have warned that the investigation into the international nuclear smuggling network formerly headed by top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan has stalled because of a lack of cooperation from national authorities, the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 23). Among the concerns is Pakistan’s refusal to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors direct access to Khan, who has acknowledged using the network to transfer nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Malaysia is similarly blocking access to a key network collaborator, Buhary Syed abu Tahir, because of the restrictive security act he is being held under, according to the Times. There is also concern about what amount of cooperation China and former Soviet republics are willing to offer to the investigation, the Times reported. The lack of complete cooperation has led to concerns that undetected sections of the network could resume operations once international pressure is lifted. Investigators also said that records obtained in Libya and other countries indicate that some shipments of nuclear technology have not yet been discovered, raising fears that the equipment may have been diverted to parts unknown, the Times reported. “We are far from knowing everything,” a senior European diplomat involved in the investigation said. “I’m frustrated by the lack of cooperation. We are losing a lot of time” (Rempel/Frantz, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 5). Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf yesterday said his decision against granting IAEA inspectors direct access to Khan was a matter of national pride. “It shows a lack of trust in us,” Musharraf said. “We can question him the best, and then there is … a domestic sensitivity. This man is a hero for the Pakistanis, and there is a sensitivity that maybe the world wants to intervene in our nuclear program, which nobody wants. … It is a pride of the nation” (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 6). Back to top

Chemical Alarm Sounds at Aberdeen An alarm sounded Thursday afternoon at the Aberdeen Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Maryland while an employee was draining mustard agent from a container, the U.S. Army announced in a press release (see GSN, Nov. 9). The employee’s glove was torn during his work, exposing the second of three layers of gloves.   He inspected his inner gloves for damage, saw none, and changed the gloves as a precautionary measure, according to the statement. After the worker and his partner resumed work, an alarm sounded indicating the presence of a trace amount of agent. The two workers put on protective masks, underwent decontamination and were examined and cleared at the facility’s medical clinic. Workers operating in the area of the alarm temporarily evacuated until sensor levels returned to normal within 15 minutes. Operations continued later that evening, according to the Army. There was no danger to facility personnel, the community or the environment, the Army said. “The precautions built into the draining procedure, having operators wear three gloves, worked as it was designed. One glove tore, and the operator remained protected from agent exposure,” Aberdeen Commander Lt. Col. Gerald Gladney said in the press release (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Dec. 3). Back to top

U.S. Defense Department to Install Missile Interceptor Tomorrow at California Air Force Base The first long-range missile interceptor at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California is set to be installed tomorrow, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Nov. 15). A second interceptor is also scheduled to be placed in a silo at Vandenberg later this month, according to AP (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Dec. 3). Meanwhile, some critics of the U.S. missile defense program said that debris from a missile interception could land in Canadian cities, Canadian Press reported. If the United States were to successfully intercept an enemy missile, it would have little control over where debris landed, said Ted Postol, a physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A delay of even a few minutes in striking a missile could cause wreckage to land in southern Canada, said Postol, a former Defense Department adviser and a vocal opponent of the missile defense effort. The trajectory for a missile shot at Washington, D.C. from North Korea passes close by Toronto, Canadian Press reported. Other experts, however, have said that warheads or other missile parts would most probably land in Arctic waters or on Alaskan or Canadian tundra. “By the standards of nuclear war, that would be a very good outcome,” foreign policy analyst Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution said at a conference in 2000. There would be no cause for Canada to complain if the United States kills “two or three of our reindeer” to save New York, said George Lindsey, a research fellow with the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies (Canadian Press/Canoe.ca, Dec. 5). Back to top

HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson Resigns, Warns of Food Supply Vulnerability to Terrorism U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson warned in his resignation speech Friday that the nation’s food supply is vulnerable to terrorism, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported (see GSN, Sept. 30). “I, for the life of me, cannot understand why the terrorists have not attacked our food supply, because it is so easy to do. And we’re importing a lot of food from the Middle East, and it would be easy to tamper with that,” said Thompson. He added that his agency was “only doing about 12,000 inspections of imports” when he arrived. “Now we’re up to about 98,000, which is a huge increase. … With the number of imports increasing, you know, we have increased the number and the percentage, but it still is a very minute amount that we’re doing.” Thompson said he would leave the agency Feb. 4 or when his replacement is selected (Katherine Skiba, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Dec. 4). Back to top       Dirty Bomb Suspects Appear Before British Court Three terrorist suspects appeared today before a British court on charges that they sought material to make a radiological “dirty bomb,” according to the Press Association (see GSN, Oct. 4).  Roque Fernandes, Dominic Martins and Abdurahman Kanyare each face charges under the British Terrorism Act of conspiracy to supply radioactive material and conspiracy to possess articles which could be used in terrorism. The three men were ordered to remain in custody until Jan. 24. They are expected to enter pleas at their next hearing, the PA reported (Shenai Raif, Press Association, Dec. 6).   Back to top

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