Demonstrators in Islamabad yesterday protested the detention of Pakistani scientists who are being questioned about possible nuclear smuggling (AFP photo/Farooq Naeem). Pakistan Sent Teams to Iran and Libya to Investigate Nuclear Smuggling, Official Says A senior Pakistani official has said that the decision to detain some Pakistani nuclear weapons scientists came after two teams were sent to Iran and Libya to investigate allegations that Pakistani scientists had offered to assist those countries’ nuclear efforts, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Jan. 21)...Full Story

Libyan Nuclear Procurement Network Was Greater Than Expected, Experts Find While Libya’s nuclear weapons program was only in its initial stages when its leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi decided to disclose and dismantle it, Tripoli had established an extensive procurement network to obtain the needed technologies and expertise for its efforts, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, Jan. 21)...Full Story

Limited Testing Reduces Confidence in Planned U.S. Missile Interceptors, Pentagon Report Says Immature technologies and limited testing opportunities will make it difficult for the U.S. Defense Department to assess the capabilities of U.S. missile defense systems set to be deployed by October, the Pentagon’s top technology tester said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 24, 2003)...Full Story

	Thursday, January 22, 2004

Libyan Nuclear Procurement Network Was Greater Than Expected, Experts Find While Libya’s nuclear weapons program was only in its initial stages when its leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi decided to disclose and dismantle it, Tripoli had established an extensive procurement network to obtain the needed technologies and expertise for its efforts, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, Jan. 21). At the time Qadhafi disclosed his program last month, Libya had acquired most of the components needed to produce thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges based on an advanced German design, according to the Times. Most of the materials for Libya’s nuclear efforts came from Asian and European countries and were shipped via the United Arab Emirates, with some shipments moving through additional countries, the Times reported. According to David Albright, president of Institute for Science and International Security, Libya also had “real time” access to nuclear expertise. “This is a major intelligence failure and a major failure of export controls,” Albright said (Financial Times, Jan. 22). He also said that the response of the intelligence community to the scope of Libya’s nuclear procurement effort is likely to rival that created by the discovery of Iraq’s nuclear efforts in the 1990s (Financial Times, Jan. 21). A senior U.S. official said yesterday that the United States had been aware of Libya’s efforts, which increased after U.N. sanctions were suspended in 1999. “The procurement program was across the board, not only on the nuclear side. They were buying for quite some time and a lot of stuff was still in shipping crates because they were just getting it in,” the senior U.S. official said. “It was what we thought they were up to,” the official added. The senior U.S. official also said that “there are still shipments that have to be dealt with” (Financial Times, Jan. 22). Libyan Cooperation Meanwhile, a senior U.S. official said yesterday that Libya has been cooperating fully with a team of U.S. and British experts there examining how best to dismantle Libyan WMD programs, according to Reuters. “As of now, the Libyans have been very cooperative ... it’s a day-by-day thing,” the senior U.S. official said. “Nobody has any complaints at this point,” the official added. The U.S. and British experts are working to decide how best to dismantle and remove Libya’s nuclear program and how to dispose of mustard gas stockpiles, which will be destroyed in Libya, the official said. Libya has also denied possessing a biological weapons program, but “that is a subject for further discussion,” the official added (Arshad Mohammed, Reuters, Jan. 22). According to the Associated Press, a second U.S. congressional delegation is expected to travel to Libya this weekend at Qadhafi’s invitation to evaluate his cooperation in dismantling Libya’s nuclear program. The delegation, which will be headed by Representative Tom Lantos (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House International Relations Committee, will meet with Libyan officials and possibly Qadhafi, AP reported. Lantos will report his findings to Congress and the Bush administration, his office said (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 21). Back to top       Former Senior U.N. Weapons Inspector Chosen to Replace Kay CIA Director George Tenet has chosen Charles Duelfer to replace David Kay as U.S. chief weapons inspector in Iraq, a senior Bush administration official said last night. After a decade at the U.S. State Department, Duelfer began serving as deputy executive chairman of the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq in 1993 and was elevated to acting executive chairman for several months before the commission was dissolved in 2000 (see GSN, Jan. 16). Duelfer has been selected to head the Iraq Survey Group, which is currently searching for evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and is expected to submit a final report on its search this fall, according to the Washington Post. The former U.N. inspector has previously expressed doubts, though, that such weapons would be found. “I think it’s pretty clear right now that they’re not going to find existing weapons in Iraq of either a biological or chemical nature,” Duelfer said in an interview with NBC News that aired earlier this month (Pincus/Allen, Washington Post, Jan. 22). Iraqi WMD in Syria? Meanwhile, U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) said yesterday that there are concerns that suspected Iraqi weapons of destruction might have been shipped to Syria, according to Reuters. “I think that there is some concern that shipments of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) went to Syria,” Roberts said (Joseph Logan, Reuters, Jan. 22). Secretary of State Colin Powell, however, said yesterday during a radio interview that, while such a scenario is “always a possibility,” he has seen no “hard evidence” that Iraqi weapons of mass destruction are now in Syria. “I don’t know why the Syrians would do that, frankly — why it would be in their interest. They didn’t have that kind of relationship with Iraq, but it is an open question, but I’ve seen no hard evidence to suggest that’s what happened,” Powell said (U.S. State Department release, Jan. 21). Back to top

Pakistan Sent Teams to Iran and Libya to Investigate Nuclear Smuggling, Official Says A senior Pakistani official has said that the decision to detain some Pakistani nuclear weapons scientists came after two teams were sent to Iran and Libya to investigate allegations that Pakistani scientists had offered to assist those countries’ nuclear efforts, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Jan. 21). “Yes, we sent our own teams to Iran and Libya and the debriefings began after that,” the official said (Paul Haven, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 22). A senior Pakistani official said that an initial team was first sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, and then to Tehran. In late December, the team made a separate visit to Tripoli, the official said. The official also said that a round of “debriefing[s]” of nuclear weapons scientists and officials occurred after each trip (Rana Jawad, Agence France-Presse/ChannelNewsAsia.com, Jan. 22). IAEA officials said, though, that they were unaware of the Pakistani visits to Iran and Libya, and that Islamabad was not obligated to inform the agency of its efforts (Haven, Associated Press). Pakistani Information Minister Sheikh Rashid said the teams were sent “to check how much involved (the scientists and engineers) were, whether they were involved or not.” Rashid described the alleged activities of the scientists as “something like information leakage” (Jawad, Agence France-Presse). Meanwhile, Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri yesterday called for an expanded international investigation into possible nuclear-related transfers to countries of concern. “What about some of the black marketers and profiteers from Europe and the Gulf? If there’s interest in nonproliferation, there should be even-handedness (in investigating all possible ties),” Kasuri said (Farhan Bokhari, Financial Times, Jan. 22). Back to top       Iran Denies U.S. Policy Influenced Decision to Open Nuclear Program Iranian President Mohammad Khatami denied yesterday that the United States influenced Iran’s decision to open its nuclear facilities to increased international scrutiny, according to Knight Ridder News Service (see GSN, Jan. 21). In his annual State of the Union address Tuesday night, U.S. President George W. Bush noted Iran’s agreement to allow increased international inspections of its nuclear program as evidence of his administration’s successful foreign policy approach. During an address at an international economic conference yesterday in Switzerland, however, Khatami rejected Bush’s claim. “I do not accept what he said,” Khatami said. “All the noise and fanfare of the United States didn’t have any impact on our decision,” he added. Instead, it was negotiations last year with France, Germany and the United Kingdom that led to Iran’s decision, Khatami said, adding that the success in reaching an agreement demonstrated the value of dialogue (Ken Moritsugu, Knight Ridder/Miami Herald, Jan. 22). Khatami yesterday also said that Iran has “never” possessed weapons of mass destruction and that it “vehemently” opposes the production of nuclear weapons, according to Agence France-Presse. In addition, he also denied that North Korea had aided Iran’s nuclear efforts. “I categorically deny the shipment of nuclear material by North Korea to Iran,” Khatami said (Agence France-Presse/Jordan Times, Jan. 22). Back to top       North Korea Threatens Larger Nuclear Potential by the End of the Decade, Report Finds North Korea could accelerate its production of fissionable materials to make eight to 13 nuclear weapons annually by the end of this decade, according to report released yesterday by a British think tank (see GSN, Jan. 21). The International Institute for Strategic Studies judged that North Korea might possess enough plutonium today for as many as seven nuclear weapons if Pyongyang has separated plutonium from spent fuel rods stored under international seal until late 2002. North Korea has said that it has processed all those fuel rods, but U.S. intelligence analysts and other observers have so far been unable to confirm that assertion, according to the Washington Post. Currently North Korea can produce enough plutonium for one nuclear weapon per year at its five-megawatt nuclear reactor, the IISS says, but that rate would increase if North Korea completes construction of a larger 50-megawatt reactor that has been in limbo since the now-defunct 1994 U.S.-North Korean nuclear freeze agreement.  The larger reactor could produce 55 kilograms of plutonium annually, the report estimates, and an additional 75 kilograms of weapon-grade uranium could come each year from a uranium enrichment facility that U.S. intelligence services believe is under construction. In total, that material could produce eight to 13 nuclear weapons per year, the report says (Glenn Frankel, Washington Post, Jan. 22). “In a worst case, if the facilities are completed within the next one or two years, North Korea’s output of nuclear weapons could significantly increase around mid-decade to about eight to 13 weapons every year,” the report says. “A more cautious assessment — taking into consideration possible technical difficulties and delays, including interdiction efforts — is that these facilities will not be completed until the second half of the decade,” it adds (Ewen MacAskill, London Guardian, Jan. 22). “What we’re saying is, in the near-term immediate future, North Korea’s ability to increase its nuclear arsenal is very limited,” said Gary Samore, the report’s principal author and a former Clinton administration nonproliferation official.  “But as you go beyond that window,” he told reporters yesterday, “it really begins to get into the range of dozens of nuclear weapons” (Frankel, Washington Post). One recent visitor to North Korea’s nuclear facilities said he thought it was unlikely that North Korea could quickly advance its production of nuclear materials. “Can they scale up rapidly? The answer to that is ‘no,’” said former Los Alamos National Laboratory Director Siegfried Hecker, who participated in an unofficial U.S. visit to North Korea two weeks ago. Hecker briefed staffers from the U.S. House of Representatives this morning. As for completing the 50-megawatt reactor any time soon, Hecker said the building “is in a bad state of repair” and that he saw corroded steel and a cracked cooling tower. Hecker also said he asked a North Korean official about the possibility of resuming the reactor’s construction. “He would only say that that is certainly under consideration,” Hecker said (Joe Fiorill, GSN, Jan. 22). The IISS report says that North Korea’s nuclear potential creates pressure to resolve the international nuclear crisis as quickly as possible. “There is still some time for diplomatic efforts to halt and eliminate North Korea’s nuclear arsenal while it remains limited to a handful of nuclear weapons,” IISS Director John Chipman said yesterday. “As time elapses, however, a diplomatic solution could become more difficult, as Pyongyang acquires additional strategic bargaining chips,” he added (Peter Graff, Reuters, Jan. 22). Diplomacy Continues Meanwhile in Washington, U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials began two days of talks yesterday to coordinate their efforts to resolve the North Korean crisis. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly hosted his counterparts South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-hyuk and Japanese director general of Asian and Oceanian Affairs Mitoji Yabunaka (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 22). Back to top       U.S. Technicians May Have Mishandled Damaged Nuclear Warhead, Safety Group Says In a letter this week to U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board said that officials at the Pantex Plant in Texas did not adequately evaluate the safety issues involved in a recent incident where plant technicians found cracked high explosives while dismantling a nuclear warhead, according to Energy Daily (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2003). The board questioned plant safety reviews that concluded that the decision by plant technicians to repair the cracked explosive with tape constituted only “trival” changes to nuclear explosive handling procedures and did not warrant a more extensive analysis of possible hazards, Energy Daily reported. The board also disputed departmental findings that the hazard posed by the cracked explosive was covered under existing safety analyses. It said that the incident was so abnormal that it was not included in the current Nuclear Explosives Safety studies on the warhead involved. Officials with the National Nuclear Security Administration and plant contractor BWXT had no comment yesterday on the board’s criticisms, Energy Daily reported (George Lobsenz, Energy Daily, Jan. 22). Back to top       Hypersonic Bomber Technology Not Ready Yet, U.S. Air Force Official Says U.S. Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Moseley said yesterday that it could be some time before the technology needed to build a hypersonic bomber becomes available, according to Aerospace Daily (see GSN, Nov. 20, 2003). In remarks before the Precision Strike Association’s winter roundtable, Moseley said that that significant advances in technologies such as propulsion and exterior heat protection were still needed before a hypersonic bomber capable of leaving the atmosphere would be realized. “We’re spending a reasonable amount of money on hypersonics, but the fact of the matter is the technology doesn’t exist yet,” Moseley said. “Now that doesn’t mean it won’t sometime, but right now it doesn’t,” he added (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily, Jan. 22). Back to top

Tuvalu Joins Chemical Weapons Convention Tuvalu submitted its instrument of accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention Monday (see GSN, Jan. 14). The country will become the 160th party to the treaty when its accession takes effect Feb. 18 (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons release, Jan. 22). Back to top

Limited Testing Reduces Confidence in Planned U.S. Missile Interceptors, Pentagon Report Says Immature technologies and limited testing opportunities will make it difficult for the U.S. Defense Department to assess the capabilities of U.S. missile defense systems set to be deployed by October, the Pentagon’s top technology tester said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 24, 2003). “At this point, it is not clear what mission capability will be demonstrated prior to initial defensive operations,” said director of operational test and evaluation Thomas Christie in an annual report released yesterday. The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is scheduled to be deployed by October and is set to consist of 10 missile interceptors based in Alaska and California. Christie acknowledged publicly for the first time that the system is intended to counter North Korea’s missile threat, a purpose that was well understood but never explicitly stated until yesterday, Bloomberg News reported. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has conducted five successful intercept tests so far, but they involved early versions of system’s components that were matched against simplified targets, Christie’s report says. Only two more intercept tests are scheduled before the first interceptors will be deployed. “Even with successful intercepts in both these attempts, the small number of tests would limit confidence” that the system would succeed as a whole, the report says. Missile defense critics heralded Christie’s report and said it supports their view that the October deadline was established for political reasons. The report “makes it clear that in a rush to win an ideological victory, President [George W.] Bush risks prematurely deploying a missile defense system by 2004 that is technologically unproven and will drain resources from other essential priorities,” said Senator Jack Reed (D-R.I.). The Pentagon acknowledged the limited nature of the planned initial system, but defended the program and deployment schedule. “Our objective is to continue to improve this capability while at the same time reducing system limitations,” said Missile Defense Agency spokesman Rick Lehner. “This will be done by flight and ground testing that will take place over many years,” he added (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg News/Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Jan. 22). Back to top       United States Should Develop Space-Based Missile Interceptors, Report Says A report released last month by the Heritage Foundation calls on the United States to develop space-based missile interceptors as part of a national missile defense system, Space News reported Monday (see GSN, Aug. 1, 2003). According to the report, written by Los Alamos National Laboratory Senior Fellow Gregory Canavan, space-based kinetic kill vehicles developed with Cold War-era “brilliant pebbles” technology would be the cheapest and most effective defense against enemy ballistic missiles in their boost and midcourse flight phases.  “Space-based systems have good coverage for large areas. They are intrinsically global … (which) counts to their advantage when the goal is to protect America, its allies and friends from missiles launched anywhere,” the report says. It also criticizes the U.S. Defense Department for failing to consider viable space-based technologies that could produce missile interceptors for about $2 million each within the next three years, Space News reported. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency, however, has chosen to focus its development efforts on ground- and sea-based interceptor systems, according to Space News.  “The near-term priority for missile defense is to develop, test and deploy ground- and sea-based interceptors for use against short-, medium- and long-range ballistic missiles,” agency spokesman Rick Lehner said. “While space-based interceptors have potential for global coverage … our efforts will remain focused on the programs more mature in their development,” he said (Randy Barrett, Space News, Jan. 19).   Back to top

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