Former chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix in Stockholm yesterday to launch a new commission on weapons of mass destruction (AFP photo/Jessica Gow). In Interview, Blix Reflects on Iraq, Disarmament Opportunities and Nonproliferation Strategies By Jim Wurst Global Security Newswire STOCKHOLM — Former chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix, who is now chair of the Stockholm-based Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, described as “pathetic” the situation today in which governments have been unable to make significant progress on disarmament. “There is something pathetic about being in detente and having no territorial or ideological conflicts between the U.S. and the Western world on the one hand and the communist world any longer and this difficulty in moving on with the disarmament agenda,” he said...Full Story

Rice Defends U.S. Intelligence From Kay Criticism The Bush administration went on the defensive yesterday against its former chief U.S. weapons inspector David Kay, who recently criticized the quality of prewar U.S. assessments of Iraqi WMD efforts (see GSN, Jan. 29)...Full Story

Most State Terrorism Plans Still Not In; U.S. Extends Key Deadline By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — In a watershed federal effort to obtain a national picture of the terrorist and WMD threat, 19 states had submitted homeland security strategies to the federal government by mid-morning today ahead of a key deadline tomorrow (see GSN, Aug. 8, 2003)...Full Story

	Friday, January 30, 2004

Most State Terrorism Plans Still Not In; U.S. Extends Key Deadline By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — In a watershed federal effort to obtain a national picture of the terrorist and WMD threat, 19 states had submitted homeland security strategies to the federal government by mid-morning today ahead of a key deadline tomorrow (see GSN, Aug. 8, 2003). The remaining 31 states are expected to submit their strategies today and tomorrow, according to Chris Rizzuto of the U.S. Homeland Security Department’s Office for Domestic Preparedness. Rizzuto said the office is “not hearing anything from any of the states that somebody’s not going to get them in [or that] they’re going to have a problem.” The process is far from complete, however, since the department has indefinitely extended a separate deadline for one important part of the state assessments: the verification of raw data provided by local jurisdictions. Initiated seven months ago, the federal consolidation of state and local information is an effort to better distribute funds that Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge has said will amount to about $7.5 billion annually over the short term. The effort comes as U.S. states and cities tussle over control of the funds (see GSN, Jan. 23) and Democrats and Republicans spar over the relative importance of nationwide readiness and threat-based, targeted spending (see GSN, Dec. 19, 2003). The Homeland Security Department is required by the 2002 legislation that created it to produce a detailed national assessment of the WMD and terrorist threat as a basis for federal spending and to continually update the assessment in the future. PSComm President John Cohen, an adviser to state and local governments who has long needled the department over slow progress on the assessment, this week said the current state submissions could speed the national assessment. “It creates an opportunity to take a huge step forward in completing a national threat assessment,” Cohen said of the process. “Instead of taking three to five years” as the department has indicated, he said, “you could have one done in less than a year.” “The governors,” added National Governors Association spokeswoman Christine LaPaille, have “agreed that this is a real sort of next step in terms of keeping states and America safer.” States Get More Time to Verify Data State strategies were initially due Dec. 31, 2003, at the Office for Domestic Preparedness. Besides granting states an overall extension until tomorrow, the office has extended ― indefinitely, for the moment ― the time allotted to states for verification of local information on potential threats and on needs for response equipment, facilities and training. Such verification is a central feature of a process meant in part to streamline spending and avoid funding redundant response programs. “Various time constraints of the homeland security assessment process, as well as technical and performance issues related to the data collection tool and the data analysis tool, have impacted the ability of states to verify assessment data,” the office told state officials last week in an information bulletin. “While strategies must be submitted to ODP by Jan. 31, 2004, the data validation period will be extended to permit states or urban areas with previously submitted and/or approved strategies to review the assessment data,” the office added. It said a meeting of state and federal officials will be held here “in the near future to discuss the data verification process and timelines.” Rizzuto said the office expects to set a deadline within the coming weeks for the verification, adding that “there’s no problem” that has caused a need for more time. Both he and Pennsylvania Emergency Management Director David Sanko attributed the extension to the importance of the enterprise. Sanko said Washington has made it clear to states that the assessments should be reviewed carefully since they will serve as a spending “blueprint” for at least three years. Sanko added that “there may have been a little underestimation on the creativity across the country of how enormous an appetite the ‘wish list’ would generate” ― a problem also cited by other sources. Pennsylvania municipalities’ “appetite” for grants, Sanko said, led the state to undertake a “deconflicting” process akin to the verification for which Washington is now giving all the states extra time. Online System Faulted for Initial Delay State and federal officials blamed the initial one-month delay on problems with the online system used for collecting data from cities and states. According to Rizzuto, data entry and transmission posed various problems, causing the department to alter the online tool and to dispatch technical assistance teams to city and state governments. One source said the office has not fixed the tool but has devised means to circumvent technical obstacles. “I think everybody had some technological problems with the tool. It was challenging.  I think it probably was designed at a time before everyone knew what they wanted the final product to be,” Sanko said. Cohen, who has been involved in preparing Massachusetts’ state strategy, called technical difficulties “the No. 1 problem” he has encountered. “A number of these local jurisdictions became extremely frustrated with this whole process,” he said, citing reports of problems related to the Homeland Security Department’s instructions in addition to the technical hurdles. Despite the difficulties, state-level participants praised the federal department for spearheading a process they said could mean big improvements in nationwide readiness. Cohen said that “ODP really seems to have gotten it when it comes to how these funds should be used and how these funds should be tracked.” “My fear,” he said, “is that the problems with the technology will undercut some of the credibility that DHS has gained, specifically through the efforts of ODP.” Added Sanko, “It was a monumental undertaking, it’s something that came with a very short turnaround time, but I would say, now that it’s done, that the department should be applauded for setting a deadline.” Back to top

In Interview, Blix Reflects on Iraq, Disarmament Opportunities and Nonproliferation Strategies By Jim Wurst Global Security Newswire STOCKHOLM — Former chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix, who is now chair of the Stockholm-based Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, described as “pathetic” the situation today in which governments have been unable to make significant progress on disarmament. “There is something pathetic about being in detente and having no territorial or ideological conflicts between the U.S. and the Western world on the one hand and the communist world any longer and this difficulty in moving on with the disarmament agenda,” he said. After years of the focus being on the proliferation of nuclear and other weapons spreading to more countries, notably Iraq, Iran, Libya and North Korea, “I hope the world will come to a relaunch of disarmament,” said Blix, “The world is not more dangerous today … so I don’t see why one should not pursue it.” In an interview Wednesday with Global Security Newswire, Blix took issue with many of the prevailing political and security doctrines, including the fallout from the Iraq war and how to deal with future crises. Blix, as head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) during the last international inspections in Iraq before the U.S. invasion last March, was always skeptical of the unequivocal statements by the United States and United Kingdom that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and by Iraq that the weapons had been destroyed. In briefings to the Security Council and in interviews during that time, he questioned the validity of U.S. and British intelligence, but never definitively cleared Saddam Hussein’s Iraq either (see GSN, March 7, 2003). Now that the United States has not found the weapons it claimed Iraq had and the chief U.S. inspector, David Kay, resigned last week saying he believed there are no weapons to be found, debate is raging over whether U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair misled the world or were victims of bad intelligence. Blix, while not outright condemning the United States, did little more than give Washington the benefit of the doubt. “I never said Bush or Blair were acting in bad faith, but I think that from the top to the bottom, there was a lack of critical thinking,” said Blix. They relied too much on defectors who told them what they wanted to hear, he said. “They were convinced and this led them to overinterpret things … There was no cross examination.” “They were convinced there were witches,” Blix added. UNMOVIC was skeptical of the U.S.-British evidence during their early inspections. At the time, Blix said UNMOVIC told the governments, “We see no smoking gun, we see no evidence of what you are saying.” He added, “They didn’t criticize us for that, they said they had the evidence and went ahead.” Another continuing controversy in the Iraq debate is why, if Hussein no longer had weapons of mass destruction, did he continue to resist cooperation? “I think the most important factor was that U.S. frequently said there would be no lifting of sanctions until Saddam was gone. Now that is not giving Saddam any incentive to … cooperate with inspectors,” said Blix. “He may well have said to himself, we can play cat and mouse with them. That’s one possibility.” Another possibility is that it might be a case of putting out a “beware of dog” sign when you do not have a dog, an analogy Blix used last year. “They didn’t mind the suspicion that they had weapons,” he said. A third theory, he said, is that Iraq did not want to give inspectors access to military sites because they believed the information would be passed to U.S. and British intelligence agencies. Blix did not accept another theory — that Hussein was misled by aides and scientists who were not developing weapons but told Hussein they were so they could skim off funds and protect their jobs. “No,” said Blix. “With a dictator of his kind, people will tell him what he wants to hear. … But the evidence we have had from some of the nuclear scientists that they were in pretty miserable shape.” Blix was the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency in the 1990s when the United Nations first began inspecting Iraq for weapons of mass destruction in conjunction with the first Security Council inspection team, the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM). After UNSCOM withdrew from Iraq in December 1998, the council created UNMOVIC in late 1999, but inspectors did not return to Iraq until 2003. Blix, who retired from the IAEA in 1997, was named to head UNMOVIC. He left UNMOVIC in June 2003. The Greatest Threats While proliferation by “rogue states” and terrorists getting their hands on weapons of mass destruction are valid concerns, Blix said, “I still think that states are the greatest threats. It’s not that the world is full of rogue states, this is a misleading perception.” He said there are three regions of tension involving nuclear weapons — the Middle East, South Asia and the Korean Peninsula — and “in all three cases, the first line of defense lies in developing security policies that the countries in the region can feel secure without the perceived need for nuclear weapons.” India and Pakistan have started direct talks, with the support of third parties, he said (see GSN, Jan. 27). In the Middle East, besides movement on Libya and Iran, there is the road map of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. The ultimate goal should be a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, said Blix. “However, it is evident that such a zone cannot come about unless you have a peaceful resolution of the conflict,” he said. He said “the right way” to handle Korea is for the United States to “get into serious discussions about the security guarantees for North Korea.” “I don’t think it should be so difficult, because to my knowledge, no one is interested in invading North Korea,” he said. North Koreans “are obliged to do much more than they have” in terms of freezing their weapons program and opening up their facilities, Blix said. “They will have to accept very far-reaching inspections,” he added. “It is the country that needs the transparency of inspections more than any other,” he said. Regarding Iran and Libya, Blix expressed doubts about U.S. claims that the two countries are opening themselves up to inspections because Washington dealt so firmly with Iraq (see GSN, Jan. 21). “It’s tempting that after the debacle they’ve had in Iraq, they would like to say that this is a good thing that came out of it,” he said. “I can understand that politically. But again we should look at that with a critical mind,” he added. He said “it’s possible” that the leaders of Iran and Libya were “scared” by the U.S. show of force in Iraq, but “I’m not very convinced by that. I think it has an effect upon the world that the Americans may be dangerous, unpredictable. There may be something in it, but it’s not proven.” The WMD Commission The 15-member commission Blix now heads, organized under an initiative of the Swedish Foreign Ministry, is to make specific proposals on a range of issues relating to weapons of mass destruction, including terrorism and missiles and other delivery vehicles. The commission is expected to publish its recommendations by the end of 2005 (see GSN, Dec. 15, 2003). The commission is the latest in a line of international commissions dedicated to promoting disarmament. One of the most notable commissions, the 1996 Canberra Commission, said in its final report that it “defies credibility” to believe nuclear weapons can be maintained indefinitely without being used. Therefore, according to the report, “The only complete defense is the elimination of nuclear weapons and assurance that they will never be produced again.” Blix said he does not think the commission will be so sweeping in its scope. “I think we will be more geared to what can be done tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, and not so much further into the future,” he said. “I would like to come forward with some realistic ideas that can be seized upon.” The Future of UNMOVIC UNMOVIC still exists and could still contribute to understanding Iraq’s WMD programs, Blix said. The commission has an acting director who oversees a small staff in the same suite of offices at U.N. headquarters. It is being funded by money allocated over past years but was not spent. The data collected over more than a decade of work is being organized, and the agency has an up-to-date roster of experts in weaponry. When he left UNMOVIC, Blix suggested that the U.N. Security Council could make use of UNMOVIC expertise, particularly in the biological weapons and missiles fields where there are no treaty-based inspection regimes. “There is a tool there now, a roster of inspectors from around the world who can be used and have been trained,” Blix said. If the Security Council ever needs inspectors for missiles or biological weapons programs, the council “could certainly find that in UNMOVIC,” he said. Back to top       Rice Defends U.S. Intelligence From Kay Criticism The Bush administration went on the defensive yesterday against its former chief U.S. weapons inspector David Kay, who recently criticized the quality of prewar U.S. assessments of Iraqi WMD efforts (see GSN, Jan. 29). U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said yesterday that more time was needed for the U.S.-led Iraq Survey Group to complete its search for evidence of prewar Iraqi WMD efforts before “the full story” could be determined.  “We will find out the full extent as the Iraqi Survey Group continues to do its work. But we do need to know what the differences were, to be able to compare what we knew going in with what we now know about his programs,” she said on CBS’s Early Show. During an interview with NBC’s Today, though, Rice also said that “there will be some [facts] that will never be knowable because there was, for instance, looting, systematic looting of some of these sites.” In her CBS interview, Rice said that prior to the war, there was widespread belief throughout the world that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. She said such conclusions were based on a number of factors, including Hussein’s past use of chemical weapons and his regime’s refusal to account for previously suspected stockpiles. “I think it was the judgment of our intelligence community, the judgment of intelligence communities around the world. It was the judgment of many intelligence officials who didn’t even support the war in countries that didn’t even support the war that he had weapons of mass destruction,” Rice said. Rice suggested yesterday that the final results of the Iraqi WMD search could lead to changes in the U.S. intelligence community. “I believe … that when we have a complete accounting that allows us to compare what we knew going in with what we now know, that there will be time to look at the challenges that intelligence faces in a world in which we’re trying to learn about weapons of mass destruction programs in some of the most secretive societies,” she said. On Today, however, Rice rejected critics’ calls for an independent investigation into prewar U.S. intelligence on Iraq. “I think we simply believe that there is work still to be done,” she said. “In fact, the intelligence community has its own investigation, inquiry, going on into a kind of audit of what was known going in and what was found when they got there. They have an external panel that is doing that for them. A lot is going on,” Rice added (Mike Nartker, GSN, Jan. 30). Over the past several months, both the House and Senate intelligence committees have conducted inquiries into prewar intelligence on Iraq. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) has also rejected calls that a separate outside inquiry was also needed. “I personally take some umbrage at people who, for one reason or another, think we need to have an outside investigation before our inquiry is even complete,” Roberts said (James Lakely, Washington Times, Jan. 30). Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) said yesterday, though, that an independent investigation was needed — one that also looked at poor assessments of Iraqi, Libyan and North Korean WMD efforts made by other Western intelligence agencies. “I am absolutely convinced that one is necessary … because this is a very serious issue and we need to not only know what happened, but know what steps are necessary to prevent the United States from ever being misinformed again,” McCain said (Katherine Pfleger, Associated Press/Arizona Daily Sun, Jan. 30). A Republican aide in Congress said there was little chance that an outside inquiry of U.S. intelligence would occur this year. “The Republicans are not going to push for an investigation and the Democrats don’t have enough votes to get one,” the aide said (Richard Stevenson, New York Times, Jan. 30). Congressional Inquiries Meanwhile, the House and Senate inquiries have found a number of issues that led CIA officials and analysts to not consider seriously the idea that Iraq no longer possessed weapons of mass destruction, congressional officials said. The committees have also determined that the CIA relied too much on outdated and circumstantial intelligence on Iraq and was too dependent on satellite imagery and communications intercepts for obtaining information, according to the Washington Post. In addition, the committees have found that CIA operatives and analysts did not detect that the Iraqi WMD infrastructure had collapsed and that Iraqi scientists had lied to Hussein about progress made in developing weapons of mass destruction, the Post reported. “It was like a runaway train,” Roberts said, referring to the CIA’s assessment of Iraq’s WMD program. “Once it left the station, it kept going faster and faster. Some analysts may have been trying to slow it down, but it just kept going,” he said. Roberts said he plans to provide the members of the Senate intelligence panel with a draft report next week. They will then have one week to review it before beginning the process to declassify portions for public hearings scheduled for the end of March, he said. House Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Porter Goss (R-Fla.) said he hopes to have a report finished by the end of the current congressional session, which could last until the end of this year (Priest/Pincus, Washington Post, Jan. 30). British Intelligence British Prime Minister Tony Blair has rejected increasing calls for an independent investigation into British intelligence estimates of Iraqi WMD programs, according to the London Telegraph. Blair has acknowledged that there are “valid questions” about whether weapons of mass destruction existed in Iraq, but believes the issue was being investigated by the Iraq Survey Group, a spokesman for the prime minister said (George Jones, London Telegraph, Jan. 30). Iraqi Official Says Weapons of Mass Destruction Will Be Found Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said yesterday that he was confident that Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction would ultimately be found in Iraq. “I have every belief that some of these weapons could be found as we move forward,” Zebari said. “They have been hidden in certain areas. The system of hiding was very sophisticated,” he added (Reuters/Jordan Times, Jan. 30). Back to top

Pakistan Backs Away From Fingering Khan as a Nuclear Smuggler Pakistan has appeared to back away from recent allegations that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the “father” of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, was involved in transfers of nuclear weapons-related technology to Iran or other countries, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Jan. 29). Pakistani Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayyat said in interviews published in two Pakistani newspapers today that that Khan was not a suspect in Pakistan’s internal probe of its nuclear scientists.  “There is no evidence against Dr. A.Q. Khan and he is not a suspect,” Hayyat said in one interview. “We are questioning a number of scientists and some them are suspect, but Dr. Khan is not among them,” he said (Munir Ahmad, Associated Press, Jan. 30). Meanwhile, former Pakistani civilian and military officials, former U.S. diplomats and proliferation experts said this week that Pakistan appeared to be ignoring evidence that some senior military officials approved sales of Pakistani nuclear technology to other countries, according to the New York Times. The officials and experts said they had no proof of any military involvement, but noted that Pakistani investigators have yet to question senior army officers as part of their probe. George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that Musharraf might be trying to balance U.S. demands for an investigation into proliferation activities with a desire to avoid provoking a key domestic support base. “The problem for Musharraf is that people in the army would know about this,” Perkovich. “And he wants to protect his club,” he added. Some suspicion has fallen on retired Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, former head of the Pakistani Army from 1988 to 1991, U.S. analysts said. Former U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Robert Oakley said that Beg had told him in 1991 that he had discussed nuclear and conventional military cooperation with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.  “He said he had a good conversation with the Revolutionary Guards about nuclear cooperation and conventional military assistance,” Oakley said. “Iran was going to support Pakistan with conventional military aid and petroleum and the Pakistanis would provide them with nuclear technology,” he added (David Rohde, New York Times, Jan. 30). Beg, however, has denied such allegations, reiterating today that he had not approved any nuclear transfers to Iran or Libya. “That is all fabricated, a lie and allegation,” he said (Agence France-Presse, Jan. 30). A senior Pakistani intelligence official said yesterday that one of several detained scientists had been released from custody. Authorities picked up Abdul Majid, a director at the Khan Research Laboratories, Pakistan’s main nuclear weapons facility, on Jan. 7 and released him Wednesday, according to the official. Six other laboratory employees remain in custody (Munir Ahmad, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 29). Back to top       Diplomatic Missions Working to Resume North Korean Nuclear Talks High-level diplomatic negotiations continued today among several countries with the aim of resuming multilateral talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis, according to reports (see GSN, Jan. 14). U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met with Chinese officials in Beijing today, and a senior Australian Foreign Ministry official left Sydney today to begin four days of meetings with North Korean officials in Pyongyang. Armitage expressed appreciation for China’s role trying to defuse the crisis, but said that the decision to resume talks rested entirely with North Korea. “The decision on the dates is in Pyongyang, not in Beijing, so you’ll have to ask the North Koreans,” he told reporters today (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 30). Meanwhile, the Australian delegation would urge North Korea to return to the negotiating table quickly, said Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. Australia’s diplomatic relations allow it play a unique role, he said. “Australia is one of those countries with very close links to the United States, an alliance with the United States, yet we have had diplomatic relations with North Korea which the United States doesn’t have,” he told reporters in Sydney. “I think that the North Koreans will be interested in what we have to say,” he added (Agence France-Presse II, Jan. 30) Back to top       Rumyantsev Defends Russian Nuclear Project in Iran Ahead of Bolton Meeting Prior to meeting today with U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton in Moscow, Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev defended Russia’s construction of a nuclear power plant in Iran, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Jan. 29). Rumyantsev denied that the project represented some form of illicit nuclear assistance to Iran. “We are building a nuclear station (in Iran), for money. This is not some kind of aid, this is a commercial project,” he said. Rumyantsev and Bolton are expected to discuss Russia’s nuclear ties to Iran during their meeting today, AFP reported. “I always say that if we did not talk about Iran, it’s as if we haven’t met,” Rumyantsev said (Agence France-Presse/IranMania News, Jan. 30). Meanwhile, Iran is considering allowing a U.S. congressional delegation to visit for the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, according to USA Today. Congressional aides could travel to Iran as early as Feb. 11, followed by a congressional delegation, said guests at a bipartisan dinner Wednesday for Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations Mohammed Javad Zarif. Zarif said yesterday that no dates for any such visits have been set. “I hope to be able to see this happen,” he said (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, Jan. 30). Back to top

Bush Administration Seeks to Double Disease Detection Funds Seeking to improve the U.S. ability to detect disease outbreaks, including those caused by potential terrorist attacks, the Bush administration yesterday announced that it is asking Congress to at least double existing funding for such detection activities (see GSN, Sept. 26, 2003). The administration will request $274 million for the effort, said Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson in a press briefing. If approved, Thompson’s department would receive $135 million, the Homeland Security Department would receive $129 million and the Agriculture Department would get $10 million (Jon Marino, Los Angeles Times, Jan. 30). “Whether bioagents are thrown at us by terrorists or by Mother Nature, our ability to respond quickly … will certainly save lives,” Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said at the briefing. The administration wants to use the increased funds to more than double the number of air-monitoring, disease detection stations nationwide. Currently, under a Homeland Security Department program called Biowatch, more than 30 U.S. cities have detectors deployed, and the plan announced yesterday would both double the number of cities and improve the technology of the deployed detectors (see GSN, Nov. 17, 2003). Ridge acknowledged that the existing system has been too slow and labor-intensive and has yielded too many false positives. “It’s not fail-safe, scientifically or technologically, yet,” he said. The Health and Human Services component of the funds would go toward improving laboratory capabilities and monitoring diseases by creating better systems for medical facilities to report possible indicators of a disease outbreak. “This is going to allow us to get information on a daily basis from doctors, clinics and pharmacies. We’ve never been connected with clinics and hospitals and pharmacies across America,” Thompson said. The Agriculture Department funds would be targeted toward improving “food and animal surveillance,” according to a joint statement released yesterday (Maggie Fox, Reuters/PlanetArk, Jan. 30). Back to top       Top U.S. Health Official Says “Vast Majority” of States Ready for Smallpox By David McGlinchey Government Executive WASHINGTON — U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson said yesterday that the “vast majority” of states are now prepared to immunize all their residents in 10 days if there were a smallpox bioterrorism attack (see GSN, Jan. 29). Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, set the 10-day immunization goal as a measure of preparedness. Thompson’s comments represent perhaps the most optimistic assessment to date of the nation’s ability to withstand a smallpox attack (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2003). Thompson, however, did not offer any evidence to support his claim, and he made his assertion despite a faltering smallpox immunization program. When President George W. Bush announced the campaign in December 2002, health officials said that they wanted to immunize hundreds of thousands — if not millions — of health care and emergency workers within a year. Those immunized workers would then vaccinate the general population in the event of an attack. More than a year later, however, fewer than 40,000 civilian emergency workers have received the vaccine. Yale University professor Edward Kaplan, a vocal critic of the CDC’s smallpox vaccination plans, estimated last year that a 10-day national immunization effort would require 1.25 million prevaccinated health care workers (see GSN, Jan. 10, 2003). Thompson said yesterday that the immunization program “certainly is stalled right now,” but health officials are “pushing hard to get more people vaccinated.” He said also that the 40,000 immunized emergency workers are “not as many as we would like.” Thompson’s claim that most states are prepared for a smallpox attack is based on plans produced by those state governments, according to a CDC spokesman. Every state has developed a bioterrorism response plan and “their response plans indicate that they can vaccinate,” said CDC spokesman Von Roebuck. “A good number of states have exercised their plans.” The CDC, which heads up smallpox preparedness efforts and the immunization program, does not yet have a mechanism to measure a state’s ability to respond to an attack. A CDC official told Government Executive last week that health officials are currently developing “federal standards-based exercise scenarios” to test regional smallpox defenses and bioterrorism preparations by late 2004 (see GSN, Jan. 26). CDC Associate Director for Terrorism Preparedness and Response Joseph Henderson said also that states must test their plans to be sure that they truly are prepared for an attack and can meet the 10-day goal. Democrats from the House Select Committee on Homeland Security released a report yesterday criticizing the smallpox immunization effort and alleging that the stalled efforts have left “much of the nation vulnerable to a smallpox attack.” The report accused federal health officials of poor management and leadership and said the government had not provided enough resources to the immunization campaign. David Schanzer, the minority staff director for the committee, said there is no evidence to support Thompson’s comments. “The clear facts set out in our report don’t support that conclusion,” Schanzer said. He also said that CDC officials never explained why they shifted their goal from about 500,000 immunized personnel to the ability to immunize in 10 days: “They clearly haven’t met the standard that they set for themselves one year ago, and haven’t articulated what has changed over the course of the year that would justify so dramatically lowering the bar.” Back to top

Japanese Court Sentences Aum Shinrikyo Cult Scientist to Death A Japanese court today sentenced Aum Shinrikyo cult scientist Masami Tsuchiya to death for his role in a 1995 sarin attack on the Tokyo subway that killed 12 and injured thousands, according to BBC News (see GSN, Feb. 4, 2003). Prosecutors had accused Tsuchiya of being in charge of the cult’s efforts to develop chemical weapons such as sarin, according to BBC News. They also said that Tsuchiya was the second most important man in the Aum cult, after founder Shoko Asahara (see GSN, Oct. 31, 2003). A verdict in Asahara’s trial is expected next month (BBC News, Jan. 30). Back to top

Pentagon Seeks 20-Percent Budget Increase for Missile Defense The U.S. Defense Department’s fiscal 2005 budget request includes an increase of almost 20 percent for missile defense funding, Bloomberg.com reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 28). In its budget request, the Pentagon has asked for $9.2 billion for missile defense programs, an increase of $1.5 billion over what Congress approved for this year, according to Bloomberg.com. According to budget documents, about $677 million of the additional $1.5 billion would be new funding, with the rest being taken from money planned for later in the decade. The additional funding is set to go toward purchasing components for 20 additional ground-based missile interceptors set to be deployed between 2006 and 2007, Bloomberg.com reported (see GSN, Jan. 22). The extra money will also be used to purchase 40 additional Standard Missile-3 interceptors between 2006-2007 (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2003) and a second precision tracking X-band radar (see GSN, Aug. 18, 2003), as well as for establishing an early warning radar at an overseas base still to be determined. Over the next five years, missile defense spending is set to total $53 billion, up from the $49 billion estimated last February, according to Pentagon budget documents (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg.com, Jan. 29).      Back to top

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