Iran plans to export uranium it enriches at this facility at Natanz (AFP photo/ISIS). Iran Announces Intent to Sell Enriched Uranium Abroad Iran intends to proceed with plans to enrich uranium for both domestic consumption and foreign sales, Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi announced Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 13). While Iran has currently suspended its uranium enrichment program, “this does not mean that we will give up this industry, which is our national pride,” Kharazi said...Full Story

Libyan Nuclear Weapons Design Originated in China Investigators have determined that the nuclear weapons designs obtained by Libya from an international nuclear network headed by a top Pakistani nuclear scientist originated in China, the Washington Post reported Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 13)...Full Story

U.S. Officials Conclude Iraqi Defectors Provided Little Useful Information U.S. intelligence officials have determined that almost all of the information provided by Iraqi defectors on Iraq’s prewar WMD efforts and links to terrorism was wrong, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 14)...Full Story

	Tuesday, February 17, 2004

U.S. Officials Conclude Iraqi Defectors Provided Little Useful Information U.S. intelligence officials have determined that almost all of the information provided by Iraqi defectors on Iraq’s prewar WMD efforts and links to terrorism was wrong, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 14). Many of the defectors were made available to the United States by the Iraqi National Congress opposition group, according to the Inquirer. Among the defectors’ claims that have not been supported by available evidence were that prewar Iraq had developed mobile biological facilities and that it had helped train Islamic militants at a camp south of Baghdad. A defense official has said the U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Intelligence Agency, which handled the defectors, has since concluded that they provided little useful information. INC leader Ahmed Chalabi, now a member of the Iraqi Governing Council, has said his group only introduced the defectors to U.S. specialists and that it was the role of the United States to determine the worth of their information (Strobel/Landay, Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 14). Back to top       China Appears Committed to Nonproliferation, Bolton Says Despite its previous history, China now appears ready to cooperate with the United States in preventing WMD proliferation, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said yesterday in Beijing (see related GSN story, today). “We are engaged in a continuous dialogue with China about what I think is a commitment at the top levels of the Chinese government to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction,” Bolton said during a press conference held after the first of two days of talks with Chinese officials. Bolton also said the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led international effort intended to interdict shipments of WMD-related cargo, was discussed during his talks with Chinese officials. While the officials agreed with the PSI’s goals, they did not agree to take part in the effort, he said (Edward Cody, Washington Post, Feb. 17). “We had very good discussions on PSI. We are both opposed to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” Bolton said. “We stand ready to enhance cooperation in such areas as information exchanges. China made it clear it understands the concern of PSI participating states,” he said (James Kynge, Financial Times, Feb. 16). Meanwhile, there are concerns that China is providing ballistic missile technology to Saudi Arabia, according to the Sydney Morning Herald (see GSN, Feb. 5). The Bush administration is “concerned about what the Saudis are getting from the Chinese in terms of missiles,” a U.S. official said on Sunday. “They want to continue a relationship with the Saudis,” the official said (Sydney Morning Herald, Feb. 17). Saudi Arabia today, however, denied that it was seeking Chinese missile aid, according to Reuters (Reuters/New Zealand Herald, Feb. 17). Back to top       GAO Recommends Improvements in DTRA Performance Reporting The U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency needs to improve its performance reporting to compare accomplishments with preset objectives, according to a U.S. General Accounting Office report released Friday (see GSN, Dec. 10, 2003). The agency, which has a fiscal 2004 budget of more than $2 billion, works to address the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction through four functions — threat control, threat reduction, combat support and technology development. As part of its efforts, the agency has established links with the Energy Department — through its formal relationship with the National Nuclear Security Administration — and the Homeland Security Department. According to the GAO report, which was commissioned by Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), DTRA’s annual performance report only documents the agency’s activities and accomplishments. The report does not, however, document the extent to which those accomplishments met preset objectives, nor does it explain why preset goals may not have been met, the report says.  In its report, the GAO recommended that DTRA improve its performance reporting by comparing actual accomplishments with preset goals, and explain why those goals were not met when appropriate. The report says the agency agreed with the GAO’s recommendation (U.S. General Accounting Office release, Feb. 13). Back to top

Iran Announces Intent to Sell Enriched Uranium Abroad Iran intends to proceed with plans to enrich uranium for both domestic consumption and foreign sales, Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi announced Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 13). While Iran has currently suspended its uranium enrichment program, “this does not mean that we will give up this industry, which is our national pride,” Kharazi said. “This is an industry which can both be used by our plants and supplied to the international markets,” Kharazi said. “No one can deprive us of this natural, legal and legitimate right. This industry is strictly for peaceful use,” he added. Once Iran begins to produce nuclear reactor fuel, the activity will be placed under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Kharazi said (Associated Press/CNN.com, Feb. 15). Iran’s announcement might have been intended as a message of defiance to the United States, said Pakinam El-Sharkawy, a political science professor and Iran expert at Cairo University. “The Iranians are trying to say ‘yes,’ but in a way by saying ‘no.’ Okay, we are accepting of this pressure but not to the limit that we are so weak that we are in complete obedience of American demands and so on,” El-Sharkawy said. “So it’s kind of following a policy that preserves their dignity, especially in front of their population,” El-Sharkawy said (Kerry Sheridan, VOANews.com, Feb. 14). Meanwhile, the head of foreign relations at the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Hossein Mousavian, has said that Iran did not attempt to hide its research on more-advanced G2 uranium enrichment centrifuges from the IAEA. “Iran is carrying out very basic studies and research on G2 centrifuges and it has informed the agency about it,” Mousavian was quoted by the Hamshahri newspaper as saying. “It is not something the agency has discovered, Iran has informed the agency about it. ... It’s a sheer lie that Iran is manufacturing G2 centrifuges,” he said. Mousavian also denied that Iran had developed a second, covert uranium enrichment facility to use the G2 centrifuges, as some experts had speculated. “Iran does not have any enrichment facility center other than Natanz and Natanz is under the full supervision of the IAEA,” he said (Reuters, Feb. 16). Back to top       Libyan Nuclear Weapons Design Originated in China Investigators have determined that the nuclear weapons designs obtained by Libya from an international nuclear network headed by a top Pakistani nuclear scientist originated in China, the Washington Post reported Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 13). The designs, which were shipped to the United States last month, have been analyzed by experts from the United States, the United Kingdom and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Post reported. According to government officials and arms experts, the designs contained detailed instructions for building an implosion-type nuclear bomb that could be employed on a large ballistic missile. The designs also included instructions for producing components for the bomb, the officials and experts said. “It was just what you’d have on the factory floor. It tells you what torque to use on the bolts and what glue to use on the parts,” one weapons expert who had reviewed the blueprints said. In an interview with the Post, the expert described the designs as “very, very old” but “very well engineered.” The officials and experts also said that some important parts were missing in the designs. Some investigators have suggested that the missing sections may have been lost, or may have been withheld until further payment was received, the Post reported. Others suggested the designs were a type of bonus included with the purchase of uranium enrichment equipment (Warrick/Slevin, Washington Post, Feb. 15). China today refused to comment on reports that the nuclear weapons designs found in Libya were of Chinese origin, according to Agence France-Presse. “At present, we have learned of the relevant situation from some reports. ... We are paying attention to such reports," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said (Agence France-Presse/Aljazeera.net, Feb. 17).  IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei is expected to travel to Libya next week to review the progress made in dismantling Tripoli’s nuclear program, said agency spokesman Mark Gwozdecky. A Western diplomat close to the IAEA said the purpose of the visit would be for Libyan officials to “touch base” with ElBaradei ahead of an IAEA Board of Governors meeting scheduled to be held next month. At that meeting, ElBaradei is expected to present a report on Libya’s nuclear weapons program (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Feb. 16). Meanwhile, a U.S. congressional delegation that met with Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi Friday told him that he must acknowledge personal responsibility for the 1988 bombing of an airliner over Lockerbie, Scotland, for U.S.-Libyan relations to improve, a member of the delegation said Saturday. During the meeting, Qadhafi criticized militants in general and expressed “sympathy” over the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, said Representative John Sweeney (R-N.Y.). He added, though, that Qadhafi refused to take responsibility for the Lockerbie bombing or for the 1985 bombing of a discotheque in Berlin that killed two, including a U.S. serviceman. Qadhafi “acted as though he had never engaged in terrorism himself," Sweeney said. “He essentially danced away from responsibility as far as he could and frankly changed the subject,” Sweeney added (Baltimore Sun, Feb. 15). Back to top       United States Believes North Korea Has Elevated Importance of Nuclear Program The United States believes North Korea places a greater importance on its nuclear weapons program now than it has in the past, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly said Friday (see GSN, Feb. 10). “As we now see it, maintaining a nuclear arsenal has become a core, not peripheral, element of North Korea’s national defense strategy,” Kelly said. Kelly also said North Korea’s nuclear weapons program may be more advanced than previously believed, citing the recent reported admission of a top Pakistani nuclear scientist that he transferred nuclear technology to Pyongyang. “The recent confession of Pakistan’s A.Q. [Abdul Qadeer] Khan suggests that if anything, the North Korean HEU (highly enriched uranium) program is of longer duration and more advanced than we had assessed,” he said.  Although North Korea has recently denied possessing a uranium enrichment program, Kelly said, “We are confident that our intelligence in this matter is well-founded.” Kelly’s remarks came two weeks before a planned round of international talks to be held in Beijing on North Korea’s nuclear program (Carol Giacomo, Reuters, Feb. 14). During those talks, scheduled to begin Feb. 25, the Bush administration plans to take a strong stance and continue to call for the irreversible and verifiable end to North Korea’s nuclear efforts, Bush administration officials said. The U.S. negotiating strategy envisions a rejection of North Korea’s offer to freeze its Yongbyon nuclear facility as inadequate, according to the Washington Post. In addition, U.S. officials plan to demand that North Korea also fully disclose and dismantle its HEU program. Failure to do so, according to several officials, will make it difficult to continue negotiations. “If they keep denying HEU, then we aren’t going to be able to have some agreement,” a senior administration official said. U.S. officials also plan to cite during the talks the example of Libya’s decision to disclose and dismantle its WMD programs and the resultant moves by the United States to restore relations, according to the Post (see related GSN story, today). “The objective is like Libya — not us hunting and chasing (weapons) and working out a partial arrangement about a freeze or working out some kind of pay-as-you-go installment plan for taking apart their weapons program but a commitment to dismantle the whole thing,” the senior Bush administration official said. The planned U.S. stance at the talks has begun to cause concern among the other nations involved, U.S. and Asian officials said. China has called on the United States to play down the issue of the uranium enrichment program, and has also called on the other involved nations to be positive in their opening statements, according to the Post. South Korean officials have told the United States that it should be prepared to accept only the dismantling of the Yongbyon facility (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Feb. 16). South Korea’s ambassador to the United States, Han Sung-joo, said yesterday that the planned talks could still be successful even if North Korea continues to deny possessing a HEU-based nuclear weapons program. Progress will only be possible, he said, if North Korea demonstrates to the other nations involved in the talks — China, Japan, Russia and South Korea — that the HEU issue will be eventually addressed (Korea Times, Feb. 17). Analysts have said that it is sill unknown whether the United States or North Korea will make any concessions ahead of the U.S. presidential elections, scheduled to be held in November. U.S. President George W. Bush could be hesitant to make any apparent concessions toward North Korea, they said. As for Pyongyang, “there are two schools of thought,” a senior administration official said. One is that “they will want to move to do a deal before November. They’ll want to lock in the president before he’s re-elected and would have fewer constraints on the use of military force or sanctions,” the official said. On the other hand, North Korea may wait till after the election on the hope that Bush is defeated and replaced by someone “more user-friendly,” the administration official said (Fairclough/Hutzler, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 17). Back to top       Pakistan Hopes to Discuss “Strategic Restraint Regime” With India During Talks During three days of talks that began yesterday in Islamabad, Pakistan hopes to discuss the negotiation of a joint agreement to reduce the threat of nuclear war with India, officials said (see GSN, Jan. 27). The proposal, called a “strategic restraint regime,” would call on rivals India and Pakistan “to negotiate the threshold for minimum nuclear deterrence,” a Pakistani Foreign Ministry official said. “There should not be an open-ended race for strategic or conventional arms. It also aims to limit the risk of a nuclear conflict and a missile race,” the official said. Indian officials proposed discussing terrorism-related issues during the talks, the official said. “There is near agreement on these proposals,” the official said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Feb. 17). Pakistan and India both expressed satisfaction yesterday with the first day of the talks, which were agreed to by the leaders of both India and Pakistan during a South Asia regional summit held last month. “I am quite optimistic over the outcome of this round of talks,” Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha said (BBC News, Feb. 16). Back to top       Top Pakistani Scientist Bargains With Incriminating Nuclear Documents Top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who has reportedly confessed to being behind an international nuclear proliferation network, has refused to surrender documents suspected of incriminating the Pakistani military, the London Sunday Telegraph reported Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 13). The documents, which are believed to demonstrate that senior Pakistani army officials, including President Pervez Musharraf, knew of Khan’s efforts to transfer Pakistani nuclear technology abroad, are believed to be in the possession of Khan’s daughter Dina, who lives in London. Khan agreed to surrender the documents for a pardon, which he received, but he has yet to do so, Pakistani intelligence officials said. They also said they believe Dina is prepared to release the documents if her father is brought to trial. “The government has been trying to retrieve the documents since Dr. Khan was offered a presidential pardon last week but they are yet to receive them, even though he promised,” a Pakistani intelligence official said. “If his daughter reveals this secret information in retaliation, it could create problems both for the country and its nuclear program,” an intelligence official said (Ansari/Schofield, London Sunday Telegraph, Feb. 15). Pakistani officials and senior scientists said yesterday that Khan was able to avoid suspicion for so long by doling out hundreds of thousands of dollars to purchase loyalty. “If you wrote to him that you wanted to attend a seminar or that your daughter was getting married, he would write back and there would be a check in there for you,” said Pervez Hoodhboy, a physicist at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad. “Sometimes there would be $50,000 or $100,000. He was very generous and he bought a lot of support, so people didn’t say anything,” Hoodhboy said. Khan’s authority as head of Pakistan’s nuclear program gave him almost complete control over how the program’s vast funding was spent, and the secrecy of the program resulted in Khan having little oversight, said opposition lawmaker Farhatullah Babar. “The kind of vast administrative and financial powers, without any check on them, that were given to Dr. A.Q. Khan was unprecedented and unusual," Babar said. “The powers given to him were so great that he could use the funds however he wanted. … Whoever has such great powers, it is a normal human failure to abuse them,” he added. Several Pakistani officials said Khan paid senior journalists and newspaper columnists to bolster his image as having defended Pakistan against the threat posed by India’s nuclear arsenal. “He meticulously cultivated his image from Day One,” said A.H. Nayyar, another physics professor at Quaid-e-Azam University. “He doled out state money to create the image of a hero who was untouchable and beyond any investigation. He worked very hard at that and he was very, very clever,” Nayyar said (Paul Haven, Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 17). Last night, the Pakistani Senate debated the refusal of Musharraf’s government to call a joint session of the Pakistani Parliament to discuss Khan’s activities, according to the New York Times. During the debate, opposition lawmakers accused Musharraf’s government of hiding the role of the military in the transfers and of humiliating Khan, seen by many in Pakistan as a national hero. “We are moving toward a massive whitewash,” said Raza Rabbani of the Pakistan People’s Party, “so that responsibility can be placed on one person or a group while others get away scot-free.” Musharraf’s supporters, however, argued that Khan’s activities were a “sensitive issue” that should not be politicized. “We have to decide,” said Information Minister Sheik Rashid Ahmed. “Do we want to walk with the world or do we want to fight with the world?” he added (Masood/Rohde, New York Times, Feb. 17). Nuclear Network Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates Central Bank said Sunday that a Dubai-based businessman suspected of being a major player in the international nuclear network would be investigated only if there was evidence he was involved in illegal activities. B.S.A. Tahir and his company SMB Computers are suspected of having been an important middleman in the nuclear black market orchestrated by Khan. Central Bank Governor Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi said yesterday, though, that the reports of Tahir’s involvement are only “speculation” at this time. “If we find something real then we’ll investigate it financially, but these are news items. If and when the time arises we might investigate,” Al Suwaidi said (Reuters/Gulf News, Feb. 16). U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton has said the Bush administration does not believe the Malaysian government was responsible for a shipment of Malaysian-made uranium enrichment centrifuge components intercepted en route to Libya last year. Referring to a nuclear nonproliferation speech made by U.S. President George W. Bush last week, Bolton said, “There was never any suggestion that the government of Malaysia was involved” (Associated Press, Feb. 17). Meanwhile, the company that produced the components, Scomi Precision Engineering, is still open and operating, despite recent claims by CIA Director George Tenet that Malaysian authorities shut the company down, Newsweek reported (Hirsh/Schafer, Newsweek, Feb. 23). Back to top       Russian Missile Tests Reportedly Fail as Putin Watches Russian President Vladimir Putin today monitored an ongoing Russian strategic forces exercise from onboard the Arkhangelsk Typhoon-class ballistic missile submarine in the Barents Sea, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Feb. 11). Today, 10 Northern Fleet ships and six missile submarines went to sea as part of the exercise, which began in late January, AP reported (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 17).  During the maneuvers, a test launch of two ballistic missiles from the submarine Novomoskovsk failed, according to BBC News (BBC News, Feb. 17), but a naval spokesman denied that any mishaps occurred. “No unforeseen situations appeared in the course of the exercise, the spokesman said, as reported by Interfax (Reuters, Feb. 17). Putin was expected to remain onboard the Arkhangelsk until this afternoon, when he would then to travel to the Plesetsk northern launch pad to view the launch of a Topol ICBM (Isachenkov, Associated Press). Over the new few days, the Russian military exercise will involve the test firing of several ground-based ballistic missiles, air-launched cruise missiles and a military satellite, military officials said. Putin said last week that further military exercises would be held in the future. “During Soviet times, the very factor of the Soviet Union, its power — primarily that of its nuclear forces — was a serious stabilizing factor, the one balancing power in the world,” Putin said. “We need to maintain this power, and we will do it,” he added (Kim Murphy, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 17). Back to top

Mass Vaccination Not Needed to Contain Smallpox Outbreak, Researchers Say Conducting a mass vaccination against smallpox in the United States could save some lives in the event of an outbreak, but the risks of vaccine side effects would outweigh most benefits, researchers announced Friday (see GSN, Jan. 30). Presenting a paper in at an American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in Seattle, Emory University researchers said that rapid detection and isolation of smallpox cases would effectively contain an outbreak, although delays of even one or two days could hamper control of an epidemic. Although mass vaccination during or before a smallpox attack would result in fewer cases and deaths than would surveillance and containment, the researchers concluded that such a vaccination effort would cause an increased rate of vaccine-related serious illness and death that would offset the slightly lower number of smallpox illnesses and deaths. In an earlier study the researchers concluded that targeted vaccination of the close contacts of infected individuals during a smallpox outbreak following a small attack could rival the effectiveness of mass vaccination, given a sufficiently high level of immunity within the population. Although routine smallpox vaccinations were stopped in 1972, recent studies have shown that previously vaccinated individuals retain substantial immunity. In the current study, the Emory investigators constructed a model that simulated the spread of smallpox in a hypothetical community of typical contacts, using a population of the approximate age and household distribution of the United States, following a larger smallpox attack deliberately introduced through aerosolized virus. They found that containment and surveillance would be effective in containing a moderately large smallpox attack. “This demonstrates the necessity for preparedness in our public health system. A rapid and efficient means of detecting cases and isolating them in case of an attack would be an essential component of the strategy of surveillance and containment,” according to Emory researcher Elizabeth Halloran (Emory University release, Feb. 14). Back to top

Air Force Successfully Launches Missile Warning Satellite A U.S. Titan 4B rocket took off Saturday from Cape Canaveral, Fla., carrying an Air Force satellite that will join the U.S. network of missile detection satellites. The Defense Support Program satellite is part of a system that senses the heat generated when ballistic missiles launch or nuclear weapons detonate on Earth. The first of the satellites launched in 1970, and they have since been modernized, but only one more remains to be launched before a new design of early warning satellite replaces it (see GSN, Oct. 23, 2003; Space.com, Feb. 15). Back to top       Missile Defense Agency Opens New Airborne Laser Office On Feb. 5, the Missile Defense Agency dedicated a new office at Kirtland Air Force Base, N.M., to house the Airborne Laser program (see GSN, Sept 3, 2003). The $2.1 billion program, designed to destroy enemy ballistic missiles shortly after launch, began as an Air Force program in 1996, and then was taken over by the MDA in October 2001. “We have grown over the last couple of years, and we were forced to be in about four different locations around the base just in order for us to have enough room for everybody,” Air Force Col. Ellen Pawlikowski said. “By being consolidated in this new building it allows us to work better as a team,” she said (Space and Missile, Feb. 17).   Back to top

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