Hassan Rohani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, spoke today on his country’s nuclear situation (AFP photo/Prakash Singh). Iran Resists Greater Nuclear Cooperation A senior Iranian official yesterday disputed recent charges that Tehran provided incomplete information on its nuclear activities and said his country would not expand its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (see GSN, Feb. 25). “Iran has given enough answers to the agency’s questions,” said a statement by Hassan Rohani, head of the Supreme National Security Council and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator (Hafezi/Charbonneau, Reuters, Feb. 25)...Full Story

North Korea Offers Partial Nuclear Freeze After the second day of multinational talks in Beijing today, North Korea has reportedly offered to freeze its military nuclear program, but not its “peaceful” nuclear efforts, according to Reuters (GSN, Feb. 25)...Full Story

Libya to Begin Destroying Chemical Weapons Munitions Tomorrow Libya is set to begin destroying thousands of unfilled chemical weapons munitions tomorrow, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced today (see GSN, Feb. 9)...Full Story

U.S. Missile Defense Spending Projection Climbs By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. ballistic missile defense program is projected to cost $3.2 billion more than previous projections for the next six years, bringing the total to $53.1 billion, according to the latest Missile Defense Agency budget data...Full Story

	Thursday, February 26, 2004

United States Lifts Ban on Travel to Libya As part of an effort to reward Libya for its decision to dismantle its WMD programs, the United States has rescinded the ban on travel to the African nation, the White House announced today (see GSN, Feb. 25). “While more remains to be done, Libya’s actions have been serious, credible, and consistent with Colonel [Muammar] Qadhafi’s public declaration that Libya seeks to play a role in `building a new world free from WMD and from all forms of terrorism,’” the White House said. President George W. Bush “has made clear that Libya’s decision to renounce these programs voluntarily would open the path to better relations with the United States,” it added. This will be the first time in 23 years that U.S. citizens would be allowed by the government to visit Libya. In addition, U.S. companies with presanction holdings in Libya were authorized beginning today to negotiate terms for re-entry into Libya, according to the White House. Libya has also been invited to open an interests section in Washington and to send a delegation to the United States to discuss opportunities for Libyan students to study at U.S. universities. “The United States will approach relations with Libya on a careful, step-by-step basis. We have made clear that progress in our bilateral relationship will depend upon continued, good faith implementation by Libya of its own public commitments on WMD, missiles, and terrorism,” the White House said (White House release, Feb. 26). The White House had been expected to lift the travel ban earlier this week, but that move was delayed when Libyan Prime Minister Shukri Ghanim said Libya had only agreed to pay damages to the families of the victims of the 1998 bombing of an airliner over Lockerbie, Scotland as an effort to improve international relations (David Sanger, New York Times, Feb. 26). Yesterday, though, a statement carried by the official Jamahiriya news agency reiterated Libya’s full acceptance of responsibility for the Lockerbie bombing. The Jamahiriya news agency also said “recent statements contradicting or casting doubt on these positions are inaccurate and regrettable” (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 25). Back to top       United Kingdom to Screen All Entering Visitors, Cargo for Radiation All passengers and cargo entering the United Kingdom will soon be screend by radiation detectors in an effort to prevent WMD smuggling, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said yesterday. Vessels in British waters and airspace are already being screened for radioactive materials, Straw said. “This will eventually cover all air, sea and Channel Tunnel traffic — passengers, parcels, vehicles, freight and containers,” he said. The British government also plans to allow the boarding of ships suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction, and is working to establish new international law against transporting WMD on cargo ships, Straw said. In a written statement to British lawmakers, Straw also said the international community should consider banning nuclear fuel enrichment and processing by any nation found to have violated the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (see GSN, Feb. 12). He also offered support for a U.N. Security Council resolution that calls on countries to criminalize the production and possession of weapons of mass destruction and called for the creation of a U.N. counterproliferation committee (see GSN, Dec. 17, 2003). “Countering proliferation remains as important today as it ever was,” Straw said. “The part our intelligence services play in it is vital. We and they can be proud of what we have achieved over the past year. But we cannot let up.  There is much work still to do. The proposals I have outlined are designed to assist that,” he said (Ben Russell, London Independent, Feb. 26). Back to top       Democrats Suffer Defeat in CIA Leak Investigation By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday suffered a defeat in their efforts to launch a congressional investigation into the leak of a CIA operative’s identity to the press (see GSN, Jan. 28). The Justice Department is investigating the release of the name and CIA status of the wife of former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson. In a New York Times commentary last summer, Wilson criticized some of the evidence offered by the Bush administration to justify the invasion of Iraq. Soon afterward, his wife’s name and status as a CIA operative were made public in a column by Robert Novak. Wilson alleged that the leak of his wife’s identity was meant as an intimidation tactic by the Bush administration. Late last month, Representative Rush Holt (D-N.J.) introduced a resolution of inquiry, which would have requested that the president, secretary of state, defense secretary and attorney general provide the House with all documents relating the leak within 14 days of the resolution’s passage (see GSN, Jan. 23). The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence quickly voted against sending the resolution for a full House vote. The resolution suffered a killing blow yesterday when the House International Relations, Judiciary, and Armed Service committees all voted against reporting the resolution. According to Holt’s office, the resolution was defeated in each committee in straight party-line votes. A Holt press release quoted House International Relations Committee Chairman Henry Hyde (R-Ill.) as saying it would be “redundant and irresponsible to pass the resolution and for Congress to initiate its own fact-finding, when there is an ongoing criminal investigation under way led by a very reputable U.S. Attorney.” A number of Democrats in the three committees, however, offered spirited defenses of the need for Congress to become more involved in the investigation. “There have been hearings on campaign finance, Waco, pardons, Enron, and even Martha Stewart. So I don’t want to hear anyone argue that we don’t have the authority or the responsibility to investigate whether or not two senior administration officials broke the law and jeopardized our intelligence efforts during the current war on terror,” Representative Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), a member of the Judiciary Committee, was quoted in a Holt release as saying. Back to top       Bush May Have Selectively Chosen Facts to Make Case for Iraq War, Kay Says Former chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq David Kay yesterday suggested that President George W. Bush may have been selective about the information used to make the case for the invasion of Iraq, but added that such action would not amount to a misuse of intelligence (see GSN, Feb. 25). “Politicians don’t go around picking their weakest arguments,” Kay told an audience at Trinity University in San Antonio. “The real charge that deserves careful scrutiny is not whether you picked the best argument out, but whether you actually manipulated and were dishonest about the data,” he added. Kay said that he had not seen any evidence that the White House misused prewar intelligence, “but it is such a serious charge that it deserves investigation” (T.A. Badger, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 26). Meanwhile, Senate Republicans today plan to hold a lengthy debate on Iraq to both respond to Democratic criticism and to increase political pressure on the Democratic nominees for the 2004 presidential election, according to The Hill. The debate, to be led by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), is scheduled to occur today as the Senate takes up a measure to reduce liability for gun makers, The Hill reported. As many as 12 Republican senators are expected to defend Bush. Democratic senators were not given advance warning of the debate, The Hill reported. “There are some Republicans who want to respond to some of the Democratic attacks and suggestions that the president misled the American public,” Kyl said (Alexander Bolton, The Hill, Feb. 26). Back to top

Iran Resists Greater Nuclear Cooperation A senior Iranian official yesterday disputed recent charges that Tehran provided incomplete information on its nuclear activities and said his country would not expand its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (see GSN, Feb. 25). “Iran has given enough answers to the agency’s questions,” said a statement by Hassan Rohani, head of the Supreme National Security Council and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator (Hafezi/Charbonneau, Reuters, Feb. 25). Rohani denied that Iran possessed any P-2 uranium enrichment centrifuges, but acknowledged that Tehran had conducted some research into the design. He said that Iran was not required to report all of its findings on it P-2 research or other activities (Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 26). “We have other research projects that we haven’t declared to the IAEA and we don’t consider it necessary to announce it to the agency either,” he said (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associate Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 25). “I’m sure the IAEA will find this very interesting,” said a senior Western diplomat yesterday in reaction to Rohani’s statements. “It doesn’t match what the Iranians said in October when they turned over their declaration, which was supposed to be complete,” the official added (Los Angeles Times). Back to top       North Korea Offers Partial Nuclear Freeze After the second day of multinational talks in Beijing today, North Korea has reportedly offered to freeze its military nuclear program, but not its “peaceful” nuclear efforts, according to Reuters (GSN, Feb. 25). It was not clear, however, specifically which nuclear activities Pyongyang was offering to suspend. Nevertheless, Russian Foreign Secretary Alexander Losyukov indicated that some consensus had been reached between Russian, China and South Korea to offer the North energy aid in return for freezing its nuclear program. “China, Russia and South Korea expressed their readiness to take such steps as compensation for possible energy losses which a freezing of nuclear programs could have on its energy sector,” he said. He added that Japan and the United States were not ready to agree to participation in a compensation plan (Frail/Kim, Reuters, Feb. 26). In a rare bilateral meeting with the United States yesterday, North Korea repeated its denial of a U.S. accusation that Pyongyang has a program to enrich uranium, the Washington Post reported. According to U.S. officials, North Korean delegates made the denial at the opening session of the Beijing talks, and then repeated it in a bilateral discussion with the United States yesterday afternoon (Kessler/Pan, Washington Post, Feb. 26). The United States insists that Pyongyang dismantle both its plutonium program, which it admits to possessing, as well as a suspected uranium program. The Bush administration believes the North may already have one or two nuclear bombs.  U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs James Kelly repeated assurances by President George W. Bush that the United States had no intention of invading North Korea and was prepared to join multinational security arrangements for the country, the Sydney Morning Herald reported today (Hamish McDonald, Sydney Morning Herald, Feb. 26). Format for Continuing Talks Offered South Korea proposed that a permanent working group be established to address technical matters and that additional talks be held every other month with working group sessions to be held more frequently (Andrew Ward, Financial Times, Feb. 25). Officials said the conference is set to resume tomorrow and that it is likely to continue for additional days (Reuters). Back to top       Iraq Should Have Followed Kazakh Model, Rumsfeld Says During a visit to Astana yesterday, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld praised Kazakhstan’s proliferation policies and said Iraq could have avoided war if it had followed the disarmament example set by the former Soviet state (see GSN, Dec. 17, 2003). “It’s interesting when one thinks about the problem of Iraq and their unwillingness to disarm that Kazakhstan stands as an impressive model of how a country can do it,” Rumsfeld said during a visit to the Kazakh Defense Ministry headquarters. “Had Iraq followed the Kazakhstan model after 17 U.N. resolutions and disarmed the way Kazakhstan did, there would not have been a war,” he added. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan inherited the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, which it voluntarily dismantled. Unlike Kazakhstan, however, Iraq did not possess nuclear weapons (John Hendren, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 26). Back to top       U.S. Reconsidering Negotiations on Fissile Material The Bush administration could soon take steps to revive U.N. talks on a treaty to limit the production of fissile materials, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, March 27, 2002). A senior administration official told the Washington Times that the formal interagency review of the administration’s position is in a “well-advanced stage.” There is no clear indication when the review will be finished, according to an ambassador from a NATO member nation. Differences between the U.S. and Chinese negotiating positions have led to a seven-year stalemate at the 65-nation Conference on Disarmament. Last summer, China ended its insistence that the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty talks continue only if the United States agreed to resume separate negotiations on prohibiting the weaponization of outer space (see GSN, Aug. 8, 2003). That concession paved the way for a U.S. review of its position (John Zarocostas, Washington Times, Feb. 26). Back to top

Libya to Begin Destroying Chemical Weapons Munitions Tomorrow Libya is set to begin destroying thousands of unfilled chemical weapons munitions tomorrow, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced today (see GSN, Feb. 9). The organization, which oversees the implementation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, said Libya would begin destroying more than 3300 empty chemical munitions. Libya announced the effort in an initial declaration it submitted to the organization last week.  The organization is scheduled to receive the remainder of Libya’s initial declaration by March 5, at which point plans will be prepared for the destruction of Libya’s remaining chemical weapons, the organization said (OPCW release, Feb. 26). Back to top

GAO Calls for Increased Effort to Prevent Spread of Cruise Missiles, UAVs By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The United States needs to do more to control the spread of technology capable of being used to develop cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the U.S. General Accounting Office said in a report released earlier this week (see GSN, Oct. 28, 2002). In its report, the congressional researchers said cruise missiles and UAVs pose a “growing threat” to U.S. security because of their potential use as accurate and inexpensive delivery systems for biological and chemical weapons, as well as for conventional explosives. At least 70 countries possess antiship cruise missiles capable of carrying high-explosive warheads, and it is anticipated that land-attack cruise missiles will become increasingly available between 2005 and 2015, the report says. It also says that at least 32 countries are developing a total of 250 different types of UAVs — systems that pose a potentially even greater threat to the United States. “UAVs pose a longer-term threat as accurate and inexpensive delivery systems for chemical and biological weapons and are increasingly sought by nonstate actors,” the report says, citing U.S. officials. To prevent missile proliferation, the United States and other countries employ both multilateral export control systems and national export control regulations. In its report, the GAO found flaws with both approaches. Over the past several years, the United States has had some success in adapting the Missile Technology Control Regime, a 33-nation group that agrees to implement similar export controls on missile technology, to better prevent cruise missile and UAV proliferation, the report says. It cites successes achieved between 1997 and 2002 in adding six of eight U.S.-proposed items related to cruise missile and UAV technology to the MTCR’s control list (see GSN, Sept. 30, 2003). Even with such success, there are still concerns because a number of nonregime members, including China, Israel and India, continue to acquire and proliferate cruise missile and UAV technologies, the report said. In addition, there has been less consensus among MTCR members on restricting cruise missile- and UAV-related exports than on restricting ballistic missile-related exports, the GAO said. Wade Boese of the Arms Control Association charged that the regime is also being weakened by Bush administration attempts to revise the group to allow the export of defensive missiles and related technologies. The administration has claimed that such revisions are necessary to help increase missile defense cooperation (see GSN, Oct. 20, 2003). “Any effort by the United States to urge other MTCR members to limit exports of certain types of missiles, while looking to expand opportunities for the United States to export different types will be doomed from the start. Washington and other capitals must be willing to trade in possible short-term economic and political gains for long-term security by exercising much greater restraint over missiles and missile-related technology exports,” Boese said. U.S. Export Control Regulations The GAO also found flaws in the U.S. implementation of its own export control regulations, according to the report. For example, U.S. authorities have reported difficulties in identifying and tracking dual-use items that could be used to develop cruise missiles and UAVs, the report says. The report also notes a striking flaw in U.S. export control regulations that could allow an individual or terrorist group to legally obtain uncontrolled dual-use items capable of being used to build a cruise missile or UAV. The U.S. export control system includes a “catch-all” provision that prohibits an exporter from sending missile-related items for use in 12 projects or 20 countries listed in national export control regulations, even if the export is not included on U.S. control lists. This section of the regulations, the report says, was not intended to apply to nonstate actors, such as individuals or groups. To illustrate the gap in the regulations, the GAO report cites the example of a New Zealand man who last year announced he was able to purchase from the United States the components needed to build a cruise missile. According to the man’s Web site, he was able to do so in fact for a budget of less than $5,000 (see GSN, Dec. 9, 2003). The New Zealand man and his do-it-yourself cruise missile project were not listed as a prohibited project or a terrorist country, so there was no requirement for U.S. exporters to apply for a review of the items to be exported before shipping him uncontrolled cruise missile-related technologies, the GAO report says. “Commerce [Department] officials said that they would need to wait until the New Zealander used the weapon improperly before action under export control law or regulations could be taken,” it adds. The weakness in the current catch-all provision could also help terrorists to convert a small manned aircraft into a weapon, according to analyst Dennis Gormley of the Monterey Institute of International Studies’ Center for Nonproliferation Studies. He said that there are several small aerospace companies that sell flight management systems capable of converting manned aircraft into UAVs. Such systems should either be subject to an export license or should be covered under an expanded catch-all provision, Gormley said, adding that the report could service as a “compelling catalyst” for such action. The GAO also criticized the Commerce, Defense and State departments for failing to conduct adequate post-shipment verification visits to confirm that the recipients of U.S. missile- and UAV-related exports were using them in accordance with export license conditions (see GSN, Feb. 12). The State Department only conducted verification visits for four of the 786 licenses it issued for cruise missile and UAV technology from fiscal 1998 to fiscal 2002, the report says. It also found that the Commerce Department only conducted verification visits on 1 percent of the nearly 2,500 missile-related export licenses issued from fiscal 1998-2002. In its report, the GAO recommended that the Commerce, Defense and State departments each prepare an assessment of the extent of compliance with license conditions on cruise missiles, UAVs and related technologies. The commerce secretary should also report to Congress on the effectiveness of the catch-all provision in preventing missile proliferation to nonstate actors and ways the provision can be improved, the report says. Experts said this week that the GAO report was valuable in highlighting the growing threat posed by cruise missile and UAV proliferation. “The GAO has performed a real service in illuminating the failures of U.S. agencies to pay adequate attention to this threat,” said Richard Speier, a former Pentagon official who helped negotiate the MTCR. “It will be tragic if it takes a 9/11-level shock to bring about the realization that cruise missiles are cheaper, quicker to develop, easier to conceal, more flexible in terms of launch mode, more accurate, and vastly more efficient at delivering biological agents than are ballistic missiles,” he said. Back to top       India Investigating Explosion at Rocket Fuel Plant The Indian Space Research Organization has established a committee to investigate the cause of an explosion earlier this week at the Sriharikota cosmodrome, according to Rediff.com (see GSN, Feb. 24). The accident involved a segment of a test rocket motor at the cosmodrome’s Solid Propellant Space Booster Plant, according ISRO sources. The segment had 14.5 metric tons of propellant that caught fire, killing six workers and injuring three (M.D. Riti, Rediff.com, Feb. 25). Back to top

U.S. Missile Defense Spending Projection Climbs By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. ballistic missile defense program is projected to cost $3.2 billion more than previous projections for the next six years, bringing the total to $53.1 billion, according to the latest Missile Defense Agency budget data. The increase is attributed to newly announced plans to deploy additional ground- and sea-based missiles, silos, a third missile base, radar and other hardware in 2006 and 2007, designated by the agency as “Block 2006” (see GSN, Feb. 4). Initial fielding of missile defense systems, called Block 2004, is expected to begin this year and run through 2005 (see GSN, Feb. 3). Bush administration budget documents from 2003, which did not account for the Block 2006 fielding, projected the program’s overall cost at $49.9 billion, with yearly budgets ranging between $7.7 billion and $8.7 billion (see GSN, Feb. 4, 2003). The fiscal 2005 budget documents, released this month, project funding increases for four of the next six years, reaching a high point of $10.3 billion in fiscal 2007, and an overall cost of $53.1 billion for fiscal 2004-2009. No Predicted Deployments With a request for $9.2 billion for the next fiscal year, the agency’s program is by far the most costly Defense Department weapons development effort. Differing from other major defense programs, the Bush administration has said there are no specific long-term plans and budgets for future missile defense deployments now under development. Officials say new systems will be incrementally added and budgeted as needed, in an unorthodox approach to weapons procurement called “spiral development.” The current budget estimates “were developed based upon MDA’s best estimate of what will be necessary for an effective missile defense during the time periods specified. However, an increase (or reduction) of the ballistic missile threat could result in [future years defense program] adjustment, as with any weapon system,” said agency spokesman Rick Lehner by e-mail. That approach, analysts say, can hamper congressional oversight by concealing the prospective long-term program cost and could increase the likelihood that costs will climb higher than projected as officials announce the need for additional systems. “You remain utterly clueless on the costs of a program until those costs hit you in the face,” a congressional staffer said. “You’re trying to hit a moving target in terms of costing,” said Chris Hellman, an analyst with the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation. New Systems for 2006 and 2007 The added cost to the Block 2006 phase is $4.7 billion over last year’s projection of $11.3 billion.  The increase, according to Lehner, results from the announced plans to field 20 additional long-range, ground-based interceptor missiles, 10 new silos at Fort Greely, Alaska, a new missile base, new radars abroad, additional sea-based missiles, additional Theater High-Altitude Area Defense interceptors, as well as surveillance and tracking satellites. Another $700 million was added to Block 2008 to sustain a “minimum production and testing capacity” for the long-range missile system, he said.  Projected Block 2004 costs climbed this year, by $1.1 billion, as they did after plans for the initial fielding were announced in November 2002. “If you look at Block 2004 and Block 2006 as systems ð— the way you would look at a new aircraft program ð— the increases are quite large,” said Center for Defense Information analyst, Philip Coyle, a former top Pentagon technology-testing official. The increases were partially offset by projected decreases in other activities, bringing the net overall increase to $3.2 billion. Total annual Pentagon spending for missile defense is at least $1 billion higher than the Missile Defense Agency estimates show, analysts say, because some missile defense systems are managed outside the agency, such as the Army’s Patriot missile interceptors. “When they’re talking about the Missile Defense Agency budget, they’re not talking about all missile defense,” Hellman said. Back to top       Pentagon Again Seeks Alternatives to SBIRS High After spending $8.6 billion to develop a space-based missile warning system, the Pentagon has begun to study alternatives to the Space-Based Infrared System High program, Defense Daily reported today (see GSN, Nov. 26, 2003). A key component of the ongoing delay is the difficulty delivering the first SBIRS High satellite, built by Northrop Grumman. Officials first hoped it would be ready by the late 1990s, but that goal was pushed back to early this year and schedule slippages again seem likely, according to Defense Daily. Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Michael Wynne requested in a Feb. 12 memo that the Pentagon develop a contingency plan in case the satellites are not available on schedule In 2002, about $2 billion was added to the project budget, after Wynne told Congress that no viable alternative to SBIRS existed. The search for alternatives follows a $508.4 million Pentagon request for SBIRS High funding in fiscal 2005 (Amy Butler, Defense Daily, Feb. 26).   Back to top

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