U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that he did not know if he would have supported the invasion of Iraq knowing it did not possess WMD stockpiles (AFP photo/Luke Frazza). Powell Says Knowing True Iraqi WMD Capability Might Have Affected War Decision In an interview with the Washington Post yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said he did not know if he would have recommended the invasion of Iraq if he had known that it did not possess stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Feb. 2)...Full Story

Bush National Missile Defense System Will Lack Missiles At Start By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Missile Defense Agency will probably have deployed only a few of the 10 ground-based missile interceptors planned for its Oct. 1 deadline to implement President George W. Bush’s directive to field a national missile defense capability in 2004 (see GSN, Feb. 2)...Full Story

Khan Names Musharraf, Other Army Commanders in Pakistani Proliferation Probe The “father” of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, has told interrogators that he provided North Korea with nuclear weapons-related technologies with the knowledge of senior military officers, including now-President Pervez Musharraf, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Feb. 2)...Full Story

New Round of Talks on North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program Set For Feb. 25 North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency today said a new round of six-nation talks intended to resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear standoff has been set for Feb. 25 (see GSN, Feb. 2)...Full Story

	Tuesday, February 3, 2004

Powell Says Knowing True Iraqi WMD Capability Might Have Affected War Decision In an interview with the Washington Post yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said he did not know if he would have recommended the invasion of Iraq if he had known that it did not possess stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Feb. 2). Powell continued to defend the invasion, saying former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had the intent to acquire weapons of mass destruction. He also said, though, that the U.S. assessment that Iraq possessed such weapons made the threat more urgent. When asked if he would have recommended the invasion knowing Iraq did not possess weapons of mass destruction, Powell said, “I don’t know, because it was the stockpile that presented the final little piece that made it more of a real and present danger and threat to the region and to the world.” “[The] absence of a stockpile changes the political calculus; it changes the answer you get,” Powell said. Even though weapons of mass destruction have not been found in Iraq, the invasion has improved international security, Powell said. “Saddam Hussein and his regime clearly had the intent — they never lost it —an intent that manifested itself many years ago when they actually used such horrible weapons against their enemies in Iran and against their own people,” he said. Powell also said that while former chief U.S. weapons inspector David Kay has said that international sanctions severely constrained Hussein’s WMD ambitions, international support for such sanctions would have ultimately weakened. “I think that the international community wouldn’t have kept them constrained,” Powell said. “There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that if Iraq had gotten free of the constraints and if we had gone through another year of desultory action on the part of the United Nations and when they were freed without threat … they would have gone to the next level and reproduced these weapons,” he said (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Feb. 3). U.S. Intelligence Inquiry Meanwhile, Kay briefed U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday on his analysis of the failures of prewar U.S. intelligence on Iraq, according to the Los Angeles Times. Kay said that he and Bush met for 90 minutes and discussed his tenure as overseer of the Iraq Survey Group. Kay also said that they did not talk about the planned commission to investigate U.S. intelligence-gathering efforts and that he was not asked to be a member. “The mandate, I hope, will be to look at what happened in Iraq, and why there were differences between the estimates and the reality,” said Kay. “And more broadly, why the system failed and what can be done to fix the problems,” he said. White House press secretary Scott McClellan said yesterday that a schedule for the commission had not yet been set. “In terms of the timeline, I would just stress that it is important that the commission’s work is done in a way that it doesn’t become embroiled in partisan politics,” he said. In a letter to Bush, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), along with other top Democrats, called on Bush to allow congressional leaders to appoint the members of the commission. “One of the major questions … is whether senior administration officials, including members of the Cabinet and senior White House officials, misled the Congress and the public about the nature of the threat from Iraq,” the letter says. “Even some of your own statements and those of Vice President (Dick) Cheney need independent scrutiny. A commission appointed and controlled by the White House will not have the independence or credibility necessary to investigate these issues,” it adds (Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 3). British Intelligence Inquiry In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Tony Blair confirmed today that an investigation would be conducted into prewar British intelligence on Iraq, according to CNN.com. “It is right that we have a look at the intelligence that we received and whether it is accurate or not,” Blair said. “I simply say that whatever is discovered as a result of that inquiry, I do not accept it was wrong to remove Saddam Hussein and that the world is not a better or safer place,” he added (CNN.com, Feb. 3). Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told the British Parliament today that the inquiry would report on its findings this summer, ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections. The inquiry will hear from witnesses in private and will investigate the accuracy of prewar British intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, he said. Blair also rejected continued calls from opposition lawmakers for an investigation into the political decisions made to join the U.S. invasion of Iraq. “We do not in my view need an inquiry into the political decision to go to war,” he said (Peacock/Baldwin, Reuters, Feb. 3). Back to top       Bush Administration Proposes National Security Budget Hikes The Bush administration formally introduced its fiscal 2005 budget proposal yesterday, asking for substantial increases in funds for national security while reducing many other domestic programs, the New York Times reported today. Cabinet officials held press conferences around Washington to introduce their portions of the 2.4 trillion budget request (Richard Stevenson, New York Times, Feb. 3). Defense Department The Pentagon is seeking a 7 percent increase over current funding levels, asking for $401.7 billion, but officials said they expected to request supplemental funding late this year to pay for military activities in Iraq and Afghanistan.  That additional request would probably be for $50 billion. The defense request includes $9.2 billion for the Missile Defense Agency, an increase of $1.5 billion from current levels (see related GSN story, today). The plan calls for acquiring 20 land-based missile interceptors and up to 10 sea-based interceptors by end of 2005 (Drew Brown, Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 3). The $9.2 billion, however, does not include non-MDA missile defense activities, such as the Army’s Patriot missile interceptors or the Air Force’s missile detection satellite program, according to an analysis by the Council for a Livable World (see GSN, Nov. 26, 2003). The total request for all missile defense activities is $10.7 billion, according to the Council (Council for a Livable World release, Feb. 3). In addition, the Pentagon requested $68.9 billion for weapons research and development, including $408 million for the space-based radar, $239 million for accelerating cruise missile defense research and $658 million for converting four U.S. ballistic missile submarines into cruise missile launchers (see GSN, Dec. 19, 2003; Defense Department releases I and II, Feb. 2). Homeland Security Department Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge announced yesterday that his department was seeking $40.2 billion for fiscal 2005, a 10 percent increase from existing levels. The budget request includes: *         $126 million for the Container Security Initiative, a program to screen shipping containers before they arrive in U.S. ports (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2003); *         $32.9 million for implementing safety and security measures at the Plum Island Animal Disease Center (see GSN, Oct. 21, 2003); *         $50 million for purchasing radiation detectors to be deployed at U.S. borders; *         $3.6 billion for distributing grants to state and local emergency response teams; *         $2.5 billion for Project Bioshield, a 186 percent increase, a program for encouraging private industry to develop and manufacture vaccines and medicines to protect against possible bioterrorism (see GSN, Jan. 26); and *         $129 million to improve biological agent detection capabilities, including a recently announced “biosurveillance” system (see GSN, Jan. 30; Homeland Security Department releases I and II, Feb. 2). Energy Department The Energy Department disclosed yesterday that it would seek $24.3 billion for fiscal 2005, a 4.5 percent increase from current levels. The request includes $9 billion for the National Nuclear Security Administration, a 4.4 percent increase, of which $6.6 billion is slated for nuclear weapons programs (Energy Department release I, Feb. 2). The department’s request includes $1.35 billion for nonproliferation programs, the bulk of which would be directed toward department activities in Russia, including: *         $238 million for improving security over nuclear weapon materials at Russian facilities (see GSN, Jan. 14); *         $50 million to support Russia’s closure of plutonium production reactors; and *         $649 million to disposing of surplus U.S. and Russian plutonium (see GSN, Dec. 11. 2003; Energy Department release II, Feb. 2). Other budget items include: *         $27.6 million for research into the robust nuclear earth penetrator warhead, a $20 million increase over fiscal 2004 funding levels (see GSN, Nov. 24, 2003); *         $9 million for research on other advanced nuclear warhead designs, a $3 million increase; *         $907 million for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste disposal site, a $303 million increase that reflects the administration’s intention to speed the site’s licensing and completion, according to Energy Daily (see GSN, Jan. 15; Jeff Beattie, Energy Daily, Feb. 3); and *         $99 million for funding first-responder teams of Energy specialists who can rapidly deploy to suspected nuclear emergencies (Energy Department release I). Health and Human Services Department Requesting $580 billion for his department, Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson yesterday outlined the department’s efforts to prepare U.S. public health officials to respond to possible terrorist actions. Thompson’s budget request includes $4.1 billion, a 1,400 percent increase over fiscal 2001 levels, for homeland security measures, including $1.7 billion for the National Institutes of Health, $1.1 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and $181 million for food security initiatives (Health and Human Services release I, Feb. 2). The requested food safety budget, implemented by the Food and Drug Administration, is $65 million greater than current levels. The increase includes: *         $35 million for the administration’s Food Emergency Response Network, a network of laboratories for testing suspect food (see GSN, Oct. 10, 2003); *         $15 million for research on prevention technologies and studies of potentially infectious agents; *         $7 million for increasing the number of food inspections; and *         $3 million for speeding the administration’s crisis response (Food and Drug Administration release, Feb. 2). Back to top       Chemical Weapons Inspectors to Visit Libya This Week Libya is set Thursday to allow international inspectors to visit its chemical weapons sites, according to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which oversees the Chemical Weapons Convention. The inspectors will work to secure and destroy Libyan chemical weapons and to verify Libya’s continued compliance with the treaty that ban possession of such weapons (see GSN, Feb. 2; Stephen Fidler, Financial Times, Feb. 3). Meanwhile, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns and British officials are scheduled to meet with senior Libyan officials in London Friday, according to the Washington Post. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss how to reward Libya for its cooperation so far in dismantling its WMD programs, the Post reported. One possible measure is an end to the U.S. ban on travel to Libya once the dismantlement is completed, U.S. officials said. U.S. Defense Department officials, however, are reluctant to agree to other possible measures, and are opposed to removing Libya from the U.S. list of terrorism-sponsoring countries, according to the Post. “There’s a cold wind blowing on a number of forward-leaning, reciprocal moves that we thought we’d queued up. And there’s outright opposition to removing Libya from the list of the state sponsors of terrorism,” a well-placed U.S. official said (Robin Wright, Washington Post, Feb. 3). Back to top       U.S. Army Creates New WMD Response Unit The U.S. Army has created a new military unit, the Guardian Brigade, to help improve its ability to respond to weapons of mass destruction incidents, Jane’s Defense Weekly reported this week (see GSN, Nov. 24, 2003). The unit, created in October but is not yet operational, was set up to be able to conduct simultaneous WMD response operations inside and outside the United States, Jane’s said. It consists of such current Army assets as the Technical Escort Unit, consolidated into one unit. The Guardian Brigade was created after an internal review of Army WMD and enhanced high-yield explosives defense capabilities, according to Jane’s. The unit’s executive officer, Lt. Col. George Lecakes, said last year those capabilities had been so dispersed throughout the Army that “it became a management nightmare” (Andrew Koch, Jane’s Defense Weekly, Feb. 4). Back to top       Airliner Terrorism Threat Has Passed, Officials Say The terrorism threat that led to cancellation of several flights into and within the United States, which included the concern of possible WMD use, has passed and no further cancellations are planned, U.S. officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 2). “At this point we do not have any new threat reporting, targeting specific flights, like we did over the weekend,” White House press secretary Scott McClellan said. No arrests were made in relation to the cancelled flights, and some law-enforcement officials were unsure if the measures taken had disrupted planned attacks, according to Associated Press. A senior law enforcement official said yesterday, though, that gathered intelligence indicates that al-Qaeda continues to be highly interested in airliners and weapons of mass destruction (Leslie Miller, Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 3). Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said that “very specific information” had led to the canceled flights over the weekend and yesterday. “It didn’t quite have the specificity with regard to the nature of the attack, but there was certainly enough credibility associated with the when and the where, the date and the flight” to cancel the flights, he said. He also suggested that that more flights may be canceled in the future. “On a day-to-day basis, one of the most difficult jobs in town is basically distinguishing between that which may be a specific threat and that which is just occasion to give us disinformation and make us react to it,” Ridge said. “I wish I could look into a crystal ball and say it’s not going to happen again. I can’t do that,” he added (CNN.com, Feb. 2). Back to top

Khan Names Musharraf, Other Army Commanders in Pakistani Proliferation Probe The “father” of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, has told interrogators that he provided North Korea with nuclear weapons-related technologies with the knowledge of senior military officers, including now-President Pervez Musharraf, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Feb. 2). A friend of Khan’s and a senior Pakistani investigator said that Khan told authorities that Musharraf, formerly head of the military, and two other army chiefs knew and approved of his transfers to North Korea. They also said Khan told interrogators that retired Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, head of the Pakistani Army from 1996 to 1998, knew of his nuclear assistance to Iran. The Pakistani military’s spokesman, Gen. Shaukat Sultan, denied that Musharraf had been involved in any nuclear-related transfers during his military tenure. “General Pervez Musharraf neither authorized such transfers nor was involved in any way with such deeds, even before he was president,” Sultan said. Acting on Khan’s claims, though, investigators have recently questioned both Beg and Gen. Jehangir Karamat, who was head of the army from 1996 to 1998, a senior Pakistani military official said, adding that both men have denied any knowledge of the transfers. During a press briefing Sunday night, Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai, the head of Pakistan’s Strategic Planning and Development Cell, described Khan’s detailed 12-page confession, in which he admitted to having provided nuclear assistance to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Kidwai said that the transfers began in 1989 and were facilitated by a network of middlemen, including three German businessmen and a Sri Lankan currently in custody in Malaysia (see related GSN story, today). Khan also told authorities that he had had supplied Iran and Libya with surplus equipment from the Khan Research Laboratories, Pakistan’s main nuclear weapons facility, that he knew would not provide either country with a near-term uranium enrichment capability, the senior Pakistani investigator and a senior intelligence official said. “Dr. Khan is basically contesting the merit of the nuclear proliferation charges,” the investigator said. “Throughout his debriefing, Dr. Khan kept challenging the perception that material found from the Libyan or Iranian programs would allow them to enrich uranium,” the investigator added (Lancaster/Khan, Washington Post, Feb. 3). Motivations According to sources, there were various motivations at work behind Khan’s assistance to Iran, Libya and North Korea, the Los Angeles Times reported. Some diplomats in Vienna said the money paid by Iran for Khan’s nuclear aid was used to keep Islamabad’s own nuclear program alive in the early 1990s, when it was affected by U.S. sanctions. While it is still unknown exactly how much Iran paid, the amount is suspected to be “tens of millions of dollars” said two diplomats familiar with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s investigation into Iran’s nuclear efforts. Money also appears to be a prime motivation behind Khan’s aid to Libya’s nuclear program, according to diplomats familiar with investigation there. “Best guess is that the Libyans paid $40 million or more for centrifuges, components and designs,” said a diplomat who has seen documents provided by Libya. North Korea, however, apparently provided weapons, rather than money, for the aid it received, according to the Times. In late 1993, as Pakistan was completing work on its own nuclear weapon, Khan met with President Benazir Bhutto shortly before she was to travel to North Korea to meet leader Kim Jong Il, the Times reported. According to two former Pakistani officials, Khan said, “If you are going to North Korea, it would be very good if you could talk to Kim Jong Il about helping us with this nuclear project.” Khan told Bhutto that he wanted long-range missile designs, and she agreed on the basis that she could reduce the Pakistani military’s pressure on her government by aiding Khan, the two former Pakistani officials said. Bhutto returned from North Korea with computer disks containing missile plans, the Times reported. Bhutto denied that she had traded nuclear technology to North Korea in exchange for the missile plans, saying instead the Pakistan paid for them, the former officials said. U.S. intelligence and other sources, though, later reported that Pakistani nuclear technology was being exchanged for North Korean missiles because Pakistan was unable to pay (Los Angeles Times, Feb. 3). Meanwhile, Khan’s exposure and reported confession have probably damaged the international black market used to aid Iran, Libya and North Korea’s nuclear efforts, according to diplomats and Western experts. Khan’s exposure means that the covert network is “now busted up,” said Institute of Science and International Security President David Albright. “There are still remnants, and that has to be watched, but this is a major victory for nonproliferation,” Albright said (George Jahn, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 2). Back to top       New Round of Talks on North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program Set For Feb. 25 North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency today said a new round of six-nation talks intended to resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear standoff has been set for Feb. 25 (see GSN, Feb. 2). North Korea, the United States and host country China “agreed to resume the next round of the six-way talks from Feb. 25 after having a series of discussions,” a KCNA statement said. The countries involved in the talks are China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States (BBC News, Feb. 3). According to the Washington Post, analysts have said that expectations for the new round of talks are higher than in the past. The last round of six-nation talks occurred six months ago and resulted in little progress in resolving the crisis surrounding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program (Anthony Faiola, Washington Post, Feb. 3). Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian energy executives outlined two non-nuclear proposals to help resolve North Korea’s energy crisis during a regional conference yesterday in Japan, according to the New York Times. North Korea agreed to halt its nuclear weapons program in 1994 in exchange for two light-water nuclear reactors to be used to generate civilian power. Work on the plants was halted late last year because the United States charged North Korea with violating its agreement. One proposal discussed during yesterday’s conference was the construction of a $3 billion natural gas pipeline to be laid from gas deposits off Sakhalin Island through Russia to North Korea, and then possibly on to South Korea, according to John Fetter, a U.S. consultant who presented the project, proposed by the U.S.-Russian-South Korean consortium KoRus Gas Company. The pipeline could be operational by 2008, Fetter said. Another proposal involved the construction of a 500-kilovolt electrical line, said Victor Minakov, general director of a subsidiary of Russia’s state electric utility, United Energy Systems. Such a line could be built in four years for only about $180 million, Minakov said. North Korea supports both proposals, but cannot pay for either, according to people at the conference who had recently traveled to Pyongyang. If either project is chosen, it would likely come as foreign aid with a requirement that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program return to international control, the Times reported (James Brooke, New York Times, Feb. 3). Back to top       IAEA Investigates Malaysian-Based Company for Alleged Proliferation The International Atomic Energy Agency is investigating Malaysia’s alleged role in an international black market for nuclear weapons-related technologies, a Western diplomatic source said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 26). According to the source, the IAEA is investigating claims that a Malaysian-based firm had produced components for uranium enrichment centrifuges bound for Libya. “It is clear that Malaysia was a major player in terms of being a manufacturer of high-tech centrifuge parts and almost complete centrifuges,” the source said.  The Malaysian government has denied knowledge of the company’s activities and has agreed to cooperate with the IAEA’s investigation (Peter Kammerer, South China Morning Post, Feb. 3). Back to top

Possible Ricin Contamination Shuts Down U.S. Senate Office Buildings The U.S. Senate closed all three of its office buildings today because of possible ricin contamination, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Nov. 25, 2003). Yesterday, a suspicious white powder was found in the mailroom of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s (R-Tenn.) office in the Dirksen Senate Office Building. “This is a criminal action,” Frist said (Jesse Holland, Associated Press/Washington Post, Feb. 3). According to the Los Angeles Times, two preliminary field tests conducted on the powder came back with one positive ricin result and one negative. A second round of tests on the powder came back with three additional positive results. A third round of three tests conducted at a laboratory off Capitol Hill came back with an additional two positive results (Simon/Curry, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 3). The Dirksen office building and two others were closed today to allow officials to investigate mail in other buildings, according to the Associated Press. At least 16 people yesterday were decontaminated, said Capitol Police Chief Terrance Gainer. More definitive test results on the powder are expected later today, AP reported (Holland, Associated Press). Back to top

Pueblo Weapons Destruction Program Could be Delayed Under Bush 2005 Budget A program to destroy chemical weapons at the Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado could be postponed indefinitely because of cuts in the Bush administration’s proposed fiscal 2005 budget, the Pueblo Chieftain reported today. It was reported last month that the Defense Department might not be able to follow through on plans to accelerate the destruction of chemical weapons at its Pueblo and Blue Grass, Ky., depots (see GSN, Jan. 14). According to today’s Chieftain report, while Pueblo’s estimated $151.7 million budget was cut to $4.9 million, the Kentucky program was budgeted for the full expected $105.8 million. The Pueblo Citizens Advisory Commission last week sent a resolution to the Army urging that the chemical weapons disposal effort at the depot not be delayed (John Norton, Pueblo Chieftain, Feb. 3). Back to top

Bush National Missile Defense System Will Lack Missiles At Start By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Missile Defense Agency will probably have deployed only a few of the 10 ground-based missile interceptors planned for its Oct. 1 deadline to implement President George W. Bush’s directive to field a national missile defense capability in 2004 (see GSN, Feb. 2). In addition, budget documents released yesterday indicated that the agency has reduced the number of sea-based interceptors it plans to deploy by the end of fiscal 2005 from 20 to 10, citing “a moderate risk approach” (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2003). In December 2002, Bush directed the agency to have in place “a set of initial missile defense capabilities beginning in 2004” (see GSN, Dec. 17, 2002).  That order, Pentagon officials have said, would be implemented by placing six interceptor missiles at Ft. Greely, Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., by the end of fiscal year 2004, which is Sept. 30. During his 2000 election campaign, Bush vowed to deploy a missile defense system by that date, less than two months before the next presidential election. In a briefing document released yesterday, however, the agency said, “In the fall of 2004, we anticipate the United States will have on alert several interceptors at Ft. Greely, Alaska.” Missile Defense Agency spokesman Richard Lehner said the agency does not know how many interceptors will be in their silos by Oct. 1. He said, though, that it expects at least nine interceptors will in place by the end of this year and the 10th missile “should be operational in early January.” The document did not explain the delay. It did say the program suffered a setback resulting from problems with constructing one of the two alternative missile boosters that were scheduled for use in the first set of interceptors, but said the problems did not affect the schedule. The Washington Post reported this week that the agency was seeking authority to begin operating the missile defense system prior to the Sept. 30, as early as July when it expects the first missiles to be in the ground and an upgraded radar ready to operate. Bush’s order has been criticized in General Accounting Office reports and by outside critics who said the planned system will lack key systems that remain in development, such as a satellite sensor network and sophisticated radar, and that the number of missile interceptor tests, which have not simulated realistic conditions, have been reduced. U.S. defense officials previously have downplayed expectations about the system’s initial capabilities, calling them “limited” but saying they would be “better than nothing” and improved over time. Critic John Isaacs, president of the Council for a Livable World arms control organization, said that having fewer missiles ready-to-fire would reduce the system’s chances for success. “If you have a smaller number, it makes this idea of a second or third shot that much more challenging,” he said.   Back to top

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