A report on Iranian nuclear activities by IAEA Director General Mohammad ElBaradei (shown in April) will be the focus of the agency’s quarterly board meeting set to begin Monday (AFP Photo/Henghameh Fahimi). IAEA Board to Discuss Iran, Libya, Funding Matters By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board opens its latest meeting Monday at IAEA headquarters in Vienna, with Iran’s allegedly illicit nuclear programs again expected to be the main topic of discussion (see related GSN stories, today). Also on the agenda are nuclear verification in Libya and North Korea, as well as the agency’s financially strapped Technical Cooperation Fund (see GSN, March 10) and action plans on cancer therapy, response to nuclear emergencies (see GSN, June 10) and decommissioning of nuclear facilities...Full Story

Iran Interested in Illicit Centrifuge Parts, Admits High Levels of Weapon-Grade Uranium Contamination Iran acknowledged yesterday that uranium particles found in the country were far more enriched than previously known, but continued to state that the bomb-usable material came from imported equipment, diplomats said (see GSN, June 10)...Full Story

Experts Warn of U.S.-Chinese Arms Race in Space By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. and Chinese security concerns and an “action-reaction” dynamic could drive the two countries into a space arms race, several national security experts said yesterday...Full Story

	Friday, June 11, 2004

Terrorism Numbers Will be Fixed, Officials Say Errors in the U.S. State Department’s 2003 terrorism figures were partly caused by a new data collection procedure, Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday as his agency pledged to fix the numbers (see GSN, June 10). “I can assure you it had nothing to do with putting out anything but the most honest, accurate information we can” Powell said, according to the Associated Press. “Errors crept in that frankly we did not catch here,” he said. The Global Patterns of Terrorism report issued in April indicated there were 190 acts of international terrorism last year. The Bush administration said the drop in incidents from 198 in 2002 and 346 in 2001 was a sign of success in the war on terror. Questions arose in early May about the report, the AP said, and the State Department was forced to admit this week that its estimates were incorrect due data collection errors and the fact that the report does not include incidents that occurred after Nov. 11 The corrected report will show “a sharp increase over the previous year” of terrorist acts, said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher, according to CNN. “When we’re sure we have the new facts, the right facts, we will prepare an appropriate analysis and give you our assessment at that moment,” Boucher said (CNN, June 11). Boucher said the State Department is preparing a response to questions by U.S. Representative Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) on whether the incorrect numbers were politically motivated in this election year (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 11). Back to top

Turkish Man Denies Ties to Nuclear Underground A Turkish businessman said he did not know that electric equipment manufactured by his company was to be used for Libya’s now-abolished nuclear weapons efforts, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, June 10). A report by Malaysian police stated that Selim Alguadis’ company “supplied electrical cabinets and power supplier-voltage regulators to Libya.”  Centrifuge motors, frequency converters and other Turkish equipment reached Libya by ship in March after leaving the United Arab Emirates in 2003. The technology was turned over to the United States as the African nation relinquished its WMD technology.  Alguadis said his company does not make motors, and that its converters were not exported to the U.A.E. city of Dubai last year. He said his equipment is common technology, and that “customers are not asked what they intend to do with it,” Financial Times reported. The businessman acknowledged meeting Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan several times, but said his relationship with the suspected nuclear proliferator “has been purely social” (Stephen Fidler, Financial Times, June 11). Back to top       U.S. Donates Equipment to Uzbekistan The United States yesterday donated $6 million in radio communication gear, laboratory equipment and computers to Uzbekistan to support its fight against trafficking of drugs and weapons of mass destruction, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, June 9). Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the borders of Central Asia have been vulnerable to such trafficking, particularly in drugs from Afghanistan (Associated Press, June 10). Back to top       Russia, Canada Sign Weapons Disposal Deal Russia and Canada approved an agreement Wednesday at the Group of Eight summit to cooperate in the destruction and disposal of Russian chemical weapons and Soviet-era nuclear submarines, RIA Novosti reported (see GSN, June 10). Nuclear and radioactive materials will also be controlled and protected under the agreement signed by Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Kislyak and James Wright. The G-8 Global Partnership against proliferation, which largely focused on Russia, provides the basis for the agreement. Most of Canada’s financial contribution to the effort will go toward the chemical and submarine disposal projects. Russia’s Atomic Energy Agency is expected to take the lead in implementing disposal of nuclear submarines, and its Federal Agency for Industry is set to supervise destruction of chemical weapons (RIA Novosti/Pravda, June 10). Back to top       Too Early to Judge Iraqi WMD Efforts, Bush Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire SAVANNAH, Ga. — More than a year after coalition forces began searching for evidence of Iraq’s suspected weapons of mass destruction, U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that has yet to reach a conclusion about whether Iraqi WMD stockpiles would be discovered. To date, coalition forces have found no large-scale stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, as some Bush administration official had suggested existed prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom. According to reports late last month, however, the discovery of two Iraqi artillery shells that contained traces of mustard and nerve agents have raised speculation that additional Iraqi chemical weapons could be discovered (see GSN, May 26). Speaking yesterday at the conclusion of this year’s summit of the Group of Eight global economic powers, Bush said that it was still too early to say whether Iraq had possessed actual weapons of mass destruction. Instead, Bush said he would wait until chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq Charles Duelfer releases his final report on the WMD search. “I haven't reached a final conclusion yet because the … inspection teams aren’t back yet,” Bush said. “I do know that [former Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein had the capacity to make weapons. I do know he’s a dangerous person. I know he used weapons against his own people and against the neighborhood. But we’ll wait until Charlie gets back with the final report, and then I’ll be glad to report,” Bush added. The president’s comments on the Iraqi WMD search echoed those reportedly made last week by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who suggested that the Iraq Survey Group might report finding evidence of Iraqi WMD stockpiles in its final statement. Blair’s comments brought a sharp rebuke from former U.S. chief weapons inspector David Kay, who was quoted by the Associated Press as saying that continued thoughts of finding WMD stockpiles in Iraq are “really delusional” (see GSN, June 7). Bush and Blair did not discuss the issue during a bilateral meeting held earlier during the summit, according to a senior administration official. Back to top       Some Danish Harbors Expected Not to Meet July 1 “Terror-Proof” Certification Deadline International ships might soon have to avoid several Danish ports that are not expected to meet a July 1 government deadline for official terrorism readiness certifications, the Copenhagen Post reported yesterday (see GSN, May 27). “Many harbors will be ready on July 1, but some probably won’t be,” said Carl-Christian Munk-Nielsen. “The major ports have done well so far,” he added. To date, 47 of 70 affected ports nationwide have submitted plans for approval, according to National Association of Danish Harbors Director Tom Elmer Christensen. The missing applications are mostly from small harbors, Christensen added, saying that ships would avoid harbors that could affect their reception at other ports. “The question remains where I can sail a ship that has docked at an unsafe harbor,” he said. “Suddenly, the entire ship is ‘unclean’ and the goods it’s freighting are ‘unclean.’ I won’t be able to dock in major harbors after that,” he added (Copenhagen Post, June 10). Back to top

IAEA Board to Discuss Iran, Libya, Funding Matters By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board opens its latest meeting Monday at IAEA headquarters in Vienna, with Iran’s allegedly illicit nuclear programs again expected to be the main topic of discussion (see related GSN stories, today). Also on the agenda are nuclear verification in Libya and North Korea, as well as the agency’s financially strapped Technical Cooperation Fund (see GSN, March 10) and action plans on cancer therapy, response to nuclear emergencies (see GSN, June 10) and decommissioning of nuclear facilities. Meetings of the 35-member Board of Governors, held every three months and designed to last less than a week, have recently tended to be unusually long as members retreated into side meetings, adjourned for days at a time and generally struggled to reach agreement about how to handle Iran. In the end, the board has issued stern warnings to Iran, rebuffing U.S.-led efforts to refer the country’s nuclear programs to the U.N. Security Council in New York, a move that could lead to economic sanctions against Tehran. In reports submitted in advance of the board meetings, the agency has repeatedly found discrepancies between Tehran’s characterizations of its nuclear programs and inspectors’ findings on the ground. The current report is no exception (see GSN, June 2), but the board still appears unwilling to risk diplomatic gains made with Iran by passing an overly harsh resolution or referring the case to the Security Council. A draft resolution circulated this week by France, Germany and the United Kingdom reportedly “deplores” Iran’s conduct but includes no trigger for referral to the Security Council. Iran provided board members with new details about its nuclear programs in a closed-door technical briefing yesterday at IAEA headquarters. With the United States convinced that Iran is hiding a nuclear military program, the country could easily remain on the board’s agendas into next year, according to diplomats in Vienna. One diplomat said today that for next week’s meeting, “behind the scenes, the vast majority of work is occurring on the Iran issue.” “It’s pretty damning,” a diplomat said recently of the agency’s recent report on Iran, which the diplomat said casts doubt on the country’s motives in undertaking what are billed as “confidence-building” measures. “If you don’t cooperate fully,” the diplomat asked, “then what kind of confidence are you building?” The agency said yesterday that next week’s meeting is “expected to last at least three days,” and recent history suggests the talks will go on for at least a week. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei is slated to travel to the United States on June 19, and some sources in Vienna suggested the board will endeavor to wrap up its work before his scheduled departure. The week’s proceedings will include discussion of North Korea, which has sought to demonstrate a plutonium-based nuclear “deterrent” but has severely limited the board’s options by dropping out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and Libya, which has been hailed as a model of nuclear cooperation following leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi’s move last year to come clean about his WMD programs. Little debate is expected on the three action plans, which the agency and countries have developed and which are being submitted to the board for approval. In the plan on emergency response, the agency is calling for more assistance to countries as needed and for better compatibility worldwide of countries’ technology and infrastructure for responding to a nuclear or radiological incident. The decommissioning plan would set goals of reviewing how many nuclear facilities around the world should be decommissioned, developing an IAEA safety standard for the process and improving information-sharing, assistance and input from “stakeholders” such as nearby residents and businesses. A potentially controversial agenda item is discussion of an annual report on the Technical Cooperation Fund, which the agency uses to help countries develop peaceful nuclear programs. IAEA officials have lately portrayed the fund as facing stark budget decisions following cuts in Japanese and German contributions. A Western diplomat said today, though, that the matter is not likely to hold up next week’s meeting for long. “Although we’ve made significant progress regarding TC [Technical Cooperation] financing,” the diplomat said, “we don’t anticipate reaching a conclusion at this board, nor do we anticipate having the process impede upon other matters before the board.” Back to top       Iran Interested in Illicit Centrifuge Parts, Admits High Levels of Weapon-Grade Uranium Contamination Iran acknowledged yesterday that uranium particles found in the country were far more enriched than previously known, but continued to state that the bomb-usable material came from imported equipment, diplomats said (see GSN, June 10). The admission came during an International Atomic Energy Agency technical briefing, where agency officials also said the Iranians had indicated to international black market dealers that they were interested in buying “tens of thousands” of magnets for P-2 centrifuges that can enrich uranium to bomb-grade levels, Agence France Press reported. “At two magnets per P-2 centrifuges, that’s quite a few centrifuges,” a Western diplomat said. Two thousand P-2 centrifuges could produce enough highly enriched uranium for two nuclear devices per year, experts said. Diplomats said Iranian officials told the agency they were inquiring about such a large purchase of magnets in order to negotiate a better price. Iranian officials confirmed yesterday that inspectors found particles of uranium enriched to 54 percent, diplomats said. The previous public figure for Iran was 36 percent, according to Agence France-Presse. “There was a silence in the room when they mentioned 54 percent,” said one diplomat, who asked not to be named. “People were shocked by the figure,” the diplomat added. An IAEA chart at the briefing indicated contamination in some cases of close to 80 percent enrichment, diplomats said. Most nuclear weapons have an enrichment of more than 80 percent. The United States had a number of “misunderstandings” about Tehran’s nuclear program “that we hope have now been made clear,” Iranian Foreign Ministry official Amir Zamaninia said after the meeting. However, U.S. ambassador Kenneth Brill said he told the agency “that in the official written statement which the Iranians issued on March 5 about the P-2 program about their centrifuge program there were at my count at least four errors of accounting that were corrected by the most recent report” on Iran by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei.  “I didn’t hear anything that corrected that understanding although I did hear an effort to try to explain it away,” Brill added (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 10). Meanwhile, Iran wants changes to a draft IAEA resolution presented by France, Germany and the United Kingdom, according to diplomats. Diplomats said Iran wants the word “deplores” removed from the text, along with a section that calls on Tehran to shut down a uranium conversion facility and reverse its decision to begin construction of a heavy water research reactor that would produce weapons-usable plutonium.  “The draft reflects American and some European countries’ stances,” Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani said today. “If the board does not make necessary changes, it means the Europeans are ignoring their commitments. It will influence Iran’s decision (on cooperation),” he added. However, several diplomats said Iran was pleased the draft contained no trigger mechanism for the board to report Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions. A nonaligned diplomat said Iran would have a tough time convincing the Nonaligned Movement to soften the resolution, given it is closely based on the ElBaradei report. “We can’t be seen to be contradicting (ElBaradei’s) report,” said the diplomat. European and nonaligned states make up the majority of the 35-member IAEA board, scheduled to meet next week (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters/Yahoo!News, June 11). Elsewhere, Russia said there is no reason to halt work with the Islamic Republic on a nuclear reactor project, the Agence France-Presse reported. “We could stop our cooperation with Tehran if Iran refuses to be transparent and cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency,” President Vladimir Putin said today. “But for the moment, we have no reason to do that,” he added. Group of Eight global economic leaders, including Putin, said they were “deeply concerned” about Iran’s compliance with the agency. “We deplore Iran’s delays, deficiencies in cooperation, and inadequate disclosures,” they said in a joint statement during the summit in the United States (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 11). Back to top       U.S., China to Discuss North Korea Nuclear Crisis U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing are expected to meet today to discuss the North Korean nuclear standoff, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 10). “I’m sure they’ll talk about the situation with North Korea and the six-party talks,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said yesterday. He added that Powell might seek clarification from Li on comments his deputy made indicating doubt over U.S. claims that North Korea possesses a uranium-based nuclear weapons program in addition to its publicly avowed plutonium program. “I expect we’ll be interested in seeing what the Chinese foreign minister might have to say on that,” Boucher said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 10). Meanwhile, top U.S., Japanese and South Korean officials are set to meet in Washington next week to coordinate strategy ahead of the next full round of talks on the issue, the Associated Press reported. Boucher said Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly is scheduled to meet separately with each of the delegations Sunday and Monday, and that a three-way meeting is expected Monday (Associated Press/USA Today, June 11). Back to top       Sudan Signs Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Sudan signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty yesterday, bringing the number of parties to the treaty to 172, according to the CTBT Organization (see GSN, May 25). To date, 113 of those parties have ratified the agreement, including 32 of the 44 nations whose ratifications are necessary for the treaty to enter into force (CTBTO release, June 10). Back to top

Five People Accidentally Exposed to Live Anthrax Five researchers at a California hospital laboratory were exposed to anthrax while working on a vaccine to protect children from infection, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, June 8). The workers at Children’s Hospital Oakland Research Institute believed they were working with syringes carrying a dead form of the virus. However, the Southern Research Institute in Frederick, Md., had shipped live anthrax, said hospital spokeswoman Bev Mikalonis. The mistake came to light after separate groups of mice died after being injected with the anthrax in late May and last week, AP said. The researchers are being treated with antibiotics, and none has shown symptoms of infection. State and hospital officials said they do not believe other people came into contact with the anthrax, but agencies including the FBI are investigating the potential for additional exposures. The laboratory is located a mile away from the hospital, so patients were not in danger, officials told AP. “We do not see a threat or danger to anyone in the community,” said Dr. Richard Jackson, California’s public health officer. “This really has been well controlled” (Paul Elias, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 10). FBI bioterrorism agents removed the bacteria from the laboratory on Wednesday, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating why the live anthrax was shipped to California, according to the Baltimore Sun. There is no suspicion of wrongdoing, an FBI spokesman said (Scott Shane, The Sun, June 11). Back to top

U.S. Army Withholds Chemical Attack Antidote From Public The U.S. Army is refusing to provide the general public with a decontaminant that could be used for people exposed to a chemical agent, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, March 5). The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Reactive Skin Decontamination Lotion in 2003 after the lotion was developed by the Canadian military. It is already available in other NATO countries for neutralizing sarin, mustard gas and other chemical agents. The product is packaged as a lotion-soaked sponge in a special foil pouch, according to an FDA description released at the time it was approved for Army use. In the event of a chemical attack, the sponge is to be wiped over any exposed skin. While the lotion is being tested by the Army, the treatment’s private producers are not permitted to sell it or advertise it to U.S. state and local governments. “Right now they have no product to decontaminate people other than soap and water,” said Phil O’Dell, president of the Canadian company licensed by the Canadian government to sell the product. “There is only one FDA-approved.  It’s the RSDL. These first responders correctly have been trying to buy RSDL since FDA approval,” he added. New York Police counterterrorism bureau Deputy Medical Director Dani Zavasky said the antidote sounds promising and that she does not understand why her agency is not permitted to purchase it. “I’m not aware of any substance other than this out there that has been used for so long by others that has this benefit,” Zavasky said. “I’ve been hearing about it for a year and a half now and still it’s not widely available,” she added. The Army says it cannot make the lotion available, even as standard issue for its own troops, until it completes testing on issues such as whether the lotion is safe to use with bleach. “The manufacturer will have to be patient. Until the compatibility with bleach solutions is determined and can be clearly defined, we can’t field it,” said Army spokesman Maj. Gary Tallman. “It wouldn’t be proper to field it to our war fighters and our first responders,” he added. Homeland Security Department spokesman Kirk Whitworth said the agency did not comment on specific products but was committed “to speeding the access to the most effective products available” (Associated Press/USA Today, June 10). Back to top       Russian Disposal Plant Opening Could be Delayed Delays in U.S. funding are threatening to slow the opening of a chemical weapons disposal facility in Russia’s Volga district, the chairman of the State Chemical Disarmament Commission said yesterday (see GSN, June 2). The chemical agent elimination plant is scheduled to begin operations in December 2005. However, only 30 percent of the U.S. money allocated for the project has reached Russia; the rest remains with U.S. contractors, said commission Chairman Sergei Kirienko. Germany has already fulfilled its commitment to provide equipment for the facility, Kirienko said, according to RIA Novosti. “Work on the project is now only 40 to 50 percent financed. This cannot go on like that,” he said. An already operating plant in Gorny also faces trouble, Kirienko said ð — determining what to do with byproduct produced by disposal of war gas (see GSN, June 1). “Reaction mass poses no danger. But its being stockpiled is not good,” he said. “The design has not yet been coordinated between the agencies and the ecologists,” Kirienko added (RIA Novosti, June 10). Back to top

Experts Warn of U.S.-Chinese Arms Race in Space By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. and Chinese security concerns and an “action-reaction” dynamic could drive the two countries into a space arms race, several national security experts said yesterday. The analysts were Phillip Saunders of the National Defense University, Joan Johnson-Freese of the Naval War College, and Gregory Kulacki of the Union of Concerned Scientists, speaking at an event sponsored by the Monterey Institute’s Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the Center for Defense Information, Representative Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), and Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), and with Global Security Newswire afterward. The analysts said a space weapons race has not yet begun, but they also said both countries have been doing and saying things that could signal trouble perhaps 10 or 15 years down the road. “There is the danger of that kind of action-reaction cycle creating a space race which winds up hurting both sides,” Saunders said. “It’s this cyclical propagation of hostile images of the other side, which is a classical arms control problem,” Kulacki said. China and Russia have pressed for negotiations on a treaty prohibiting the weaponization of space. The United States has opposed such an agreement, citing potential harm to national security and restricting of U.S. missile defense capabilities. “There simply is no problem in outer space for arms control to solve,” U.S. Ambassador Eric Javits, then the permanent representative to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, said in a May 2002 speech, calling concerns about an arms race in outer space “groundless.” U.S. Concerns Fueling U.S. concerns is a perceived Chinese interest in developing antisatellite weapons, the experts said. Chinese “writings show an interest in this area, recognition that this is a U.S. vulnerability. There’s some scientific research going, strategic thinking about it, and probably development programs under way in some of these areas,” Saunders said. Another concern is China’s potential for using space technologies to improve its conventional military capabilities in ways already mastered by the U.S. military, such as with satellites for communications, intelligence collection, and precision-guided weapons. “In most of those cases there is a fairly primitive capability but potential for pretty rapid improvements,” Saunders said. The U.S. Defense Department last month released a report on Chinese military capabilities that concluded China now lacks the capability to attack satellite systems short of launching a nuclear-armed ballistic missile. It said, though, that China is working on developing antisatellite (ASAT) capabilities and could develop ground-based laser antisatellite weapons (see GSN, June 3). “China clearly is working on, and plans to field, ASATs,” the report said. Chinese Concerns China, meanwhile, is concerned about a U.S. ability to neutralize or destroy Chinese space capabilities, potentially coinciding with a conflict over Taiwan, the experts said. Those concerns have been encouraged by stated U.S. military goals of space “dominance,” such as described in the Air Force’s Vision 20/20 document, and plans for developing counterspace capabilities and space-based interceptors as part of the U.S. missile defense program (see GSN, April 29). “The Chinese are concerned that we have a lot of capabilities in space and are looking to improve those capabilities and are investigating concepts and technologies that might be applicable to space warfare, and so they look at that with some alarm,” Saunders said. “Political and military classes or groups in China read these 20/20 documents, stuff which is really intended to get money out of Congress, and they’re interpreting that as our intent or our policy,” Kulacki said. Johnson-Freese said discussion of Taiwan obtaining U.S. Patriot theater missile defense and other advanced military systems also “will get China really moving quickly” on space warfare development. Suggested Solutions Short of actual conflict, a worst-case scenario would be either country deploying antisatellite weapons, said Johnson-Freese. The analysts suggested increasing dialogue, nonmilitary space cooperation that might encourage nonthreatening Chinese space investment, and negotiating an arms-control agreement or at least some “rules of the road” for preventing space warfare. Kulacki suspects the Chinese antisatellite development may be driven in part by a belief that “arms control agreements happen when there is mutual vulnerability. If there is no mutual vulnerability, then why would another side agree to a treaty to ban arms?” Saunders thinks dialogue and cooperation are worth pursuing, but probably would not resolve the security worries on both sides. “The bottom line is a lot of these military security concerns are likely to limit the degree to which we cooperate with them,” he said. One ground for optimism, Saunders said, though, is that “We are very early on in this process. The fact that we are not shooting at each others’ satellites right now means there’s some time to think about this and to try to work out some rules of the road in ways that avoid some worst-case scenarios.”   Back to top

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